Brandon Belt has been the unquestioned starting first baseman for the Giants for over 10 years now. Whether he is back in 2023 or not, that run is nearing it's end. As it stands, unless the Giants work out a contract for lower salary he'll be a free agent when he is taken off the 60-day IL which he is on for a second surgery on an arthritic knee, which by itself is not a great prognostic sign. On to the Depth Chart:
J.D. Davis: .263/.361/.496, 8 HR, 158 PA(Giants). .248/.340/.418, 12 HR, 365 PA(Overall). Primary position is 3B where he grades out as a much better fielder per Fangraphs. K rate over 30% is annoying, but all other boxes check off. Minimal L/R split. Giants numbers are remarkably close to 2019 which is last he got regular PA's with the Mets. So the bat is there.
Wilmer Flores: .229/.316/.394, 19 HR, 602 PA. Wilmer seemed to wear down a bit in the second half and may have felt too much pressure to hit for power. It looked like he was trying to jerk everything down the LF line. Re-signed for at least 2 more seasons. Giants need to manage his playing time better and not rely on him so much for power.
Lamonte Wade Jr: .207/.305/.359, 8 HR, 251 PA. Minus Belt, Wade Jr is the only lefty B/T who can play 1B. Bat was marginal for the position in 2021, clearly not adequate in 2022. Was that due to injuries or is that who he is?
David Villar: .231/.331/.455, 9 HR, 181 PA. Toonder in the bat and he got better as the season went along. Minor league record suggests he could blossom into a 30+ HR guy as early as 2023. Is his primary position 3B or 1B? He mostly played 3B in the minors. If the Giants bring Evan Longoria back, will that hold Villar back or would Longo's mentorship help?
Taylor Jones: AAA- .262/.270/.453, 12 HR(2 teams). 6'7" 1B. Strong minor league track record. Seems like huge upside. Signed off waiver wire into The Churn late in the season. Problem is he is out of options so has to make the 26 man roster or be re-exposed to waivers. Churn theory says there's a enough chance of him clearing waivers to make the pickup worthwhile.
Key Prospects:
I am a big fan of Tostado. His stats at every level show he his for average and power. Had he not fractured his hand toward middle to end of AA season, he would be seen as the top prosect to be heir apparent for the first base position in 2023-2024. He does not get the press or consideration he deserves..
ReplyDeleteI like Frankie's game and I like his name. I'm rooting for him. What an incredible name for a ballplayer!
DeleteWell he doesn't get the press because nothing about his numbers really stand out. He's been a consistent slightly above average hitter at each level. If he were anything but a 1B he might have some traction as a future utility/bench guy but it's really difficult to break out as a 1B.
DeleteI appreciate Brandon Belt and his contributions to the SF Giants over these many seasons, but it is time to part ways. I am happy with a JD Davis/Lamont Wade Jr/David Villar/Wilmer Flores split at 1st base. The 1st base free agent list is not all that impressive either. Josh Bell is a switch hitter so that could work. Abreu still seems to have something left in the tank, but he is 36. Rizzo could stay with the Yankees. Mancini? Gurriel? My vote is save the money for a run at Judge and Turner. The Logan Wyatt pick is still looking terrible. What do you think of Tostada and Toribio staying if left unprotected in the rule 5? I would imagine they would both end up back on the Giants.
ReplyDeleteI doubt either Tostado or Toribio would be taken in the Rule 5 Draft. Relievers seem to be the most likely to be taken and the most likely to stick on a drafting team.
DeleteDoc, do you know of a readily available site or database that lists the Giant minor-leaguers who will be subject to the next Rule 5 draft? It seems like they have a lot of fellows in that category, and I share your concern about certain relievers, probably in AA.
DeleteI do not know of a list of Rule 5 eligibles. I know it includes all players drafted out of college in 2019 or before and it includes high school draftees and international players signed 2018 or before. It's a very large list but I am guessing COVID caused a development logjam for a lot of teams and most teams have a long list of Rule 5 eligible players.
DeleteDon't we want to improve on defense? Can we be confident that some of the 'versatile,' multi-positional players above can provide average or above average 1B D?
ReplyDeleteThis is the big question FZ has to answer for himself and the Giants.
DeleteIt's risky to give Belt a guaranteed contract but someone will – hopefully not the Giants. If he will settle for less – make the team out of Spring Training or walk – his contract should have AB thresholds. His best season by the per cent numbers was Covid-shortened 2020 when he played in 51 of 60 games slashing .309/.425/.591/1.015.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, Villar should get the shot at 26 yo: it's getting toward now-or-never – give him Opening Day & 25 or so games to settle in, then take stock.
Starting even, one player can't bury a team.
I sure want to see Villar get his shot.
DeleteI'm guessing that it is up to Belt whether he comes back, at least for next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1 year deal for a 'farewell tour'. If Belt wants to play for multiple years, he'll be going elsewhere. And if rehab is going poorly, he'll retire.
ReplyDelete