Saturday, July 4, 2020

Spring Training Update: Setting Up The Pitching


It seems the one and only reason for normal spring trainings to be six weeks long, well, other than making money on exhibition games, is for the starting pitchers to ramp up their innings and relievers to appear in consecutive games before the season starts.  After more than a three month layoff and a summer training compressed to three weeks, that's not going to happen for the 2020 season.  So far, nobody seems to have a firm plan on how to adjust.  Ideas floating out there include 6-man rotations, tandem starters and more liberal use of openers.  All of these ideas require more arms than the usual 12-13 man staffs.  While teams my end up with 6-man rotations after starters are ramped up and rosters are cut down to 26, they don't help stretch the staff when starters are on pitch counts in the 50-60 range.  Openers just "rob Peter to pay Paul" by stealing bullpen arms from the late innings and burning them early.  That is why the tandem starter idea seems the most logical to me, at least for the first 2 weeks of the season. 

Teams often go with a 4 man rotation early in spring training when the starters are on low pitch counts then add the 5'th starter as the season approaches.  What this means is 8 pitchers could be allocated to 4 tandem starter pairs.  If each of the 8 tandem starters is allowed 60 pitches, the total SP pitch count would be 120 which should get you at least through the 6'th inning and possibly through the 7'th for most games and even a tandem CG here and there! Add 10 pitches each time through the rotation and you quickly get to 160 pitches allowed. This would allow a 6-7 member bullpen for the late innings.  As pitch counts ramp up you gradually shift to a Starter-long relief team and you may add a fifth or even sixth starter for the second two weeks when rosters are cut down to 28.  When rosters get down to 26 after 4 weeks, teams will have a choice of using the extra roster spot on a 6'th starter, extra bullpen arm or a specialty position like a full time DH or a designated runner for extra inning games.

So how doest this plan shake out for the Giants?  Well, actually very well!  The Giants may not have a clear ace at the top of the rotation but they have a deep roster of pitchers with starting experience.  They are even set up well to change up the matchups by pairing a lefty and righty for at least 3 of the 4 tandems.  Here's how I would pair them up:

Johnny Cueto-Tyler Anderson
Jeff Samardzija-Andrew Suarez
Kevin Gausman-Trevor Cahill
Drew Smyly-Logan Webb

If you limit yourself to 12 position players which is what a lot of teams did with 25 man rosters, you could carry 18 pitchers on a 30-man roster.  Most teams will likely carry at least 16.  The Giants have such a big roster crunch on the position side and so many ideas for specialty players, Alex P speculated that they may go with as few as 14 pitchers to start the season.  Is a 6-man bullpen enough to support 4 sets of tandem starters?  It could create a problem if one of the starters gets lit up early, but maybe that's where Pablo and Brandon Belt come in?  LOL!

Here is what I have for the bullpen depth chart in this scenario.  I'll list the top 6 and then add 4 more in case of a 10 man bullpen then 4 more depth pieces for the Taxi Squad(there will be more than 4 pitchers on the Taxi Squad).

Tony Watson LHP
Tyler Rogers RHP
Trevor Gott RHP
Jarlin Garcia LHP
Dany Jimenez RHP
Reyes Moronta RHP(if healthy)

Shaun Anderson RHP
Sam Coonrod RHP
Wandy Peralta LHP
Rico Garcia RHP

Tyler Cyr RHP
Jerry Blevins LHP
Trevor Oaks RHP
Carlos Navas RHP

How do you think the pitching staff gets set up?

4 comments:

  1. It could work if they can limit the opposition to an average not much more than 4 runs a game. At 5, an unimproved offense will be overwhelmed regularly.
    Last year the Giants generated about 4 runs per game but 3 of the ten players with most PAs are gone.
    Will their replacements and the core 4 do better?
    If not can we hope for 20 wins?
    Do the Giants match up well with the 9 Western Division teams they face? From your team by team analysis, Doc, they all seem better than SF except Colorado.
    The good news is, if MLB drafts next year by record this year, the Giants will pick high is an enlarged draft pool.

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    1. I think there is a chance the pitching is a lot better than most people think but the offense is likely to struggle. I agree, with games limited to the NL and AL West, the only teams the Giants appear to be competitive with are the Rockies and Rangers, and maybe the Angels?

      The again, almost anything can happen in a 60 games season.

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    2. I would definitely take Giants over the Mariners and the Rockies, maybe over the Angels and Padres. I feel like the Giants' floor is 20 wins, with 25 being more realistic. That's if they don't completely implode before the trade deadline and promote their top prospects.

      The 2021 MLB Draft won't be determined by 2020 W-L record, because of a clause in the March agreement that allows the commissioner to set the draft order if fewer than 80 games are played in 2020. So the Giants have no ostensible incentive to tank.

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  2. Jerry Blevins was released before camp closed. In place of him, I'd take Conner Menez or Dereck Rodriguez as the swingman/long reliever.

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