Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Down on the Farm: 7/22/2013

AAA  Salt Lake City Bees outhit the Fresno Grizzlies 9-7:

Chris Dominguez(3B)- 2 for 5.  BA= .296.
Roger Kieschnick(LF)- 2 for 3, 2B, 2 BB.  BA= .269.
Ehire Adrianza(SS)- 3 for 4.  BA= .303.

AA  Erie Seawolves beat the Richmond Flying Squirrels 5-1:

Joe Panik(2B)- 2 for 5.  BA= .253.
Angel Villalona(1B)- 2 for 4, HR(4).  BA= .282.

You read it here first.  Villalona's bat has a chance to be special!

High A  San Jose Giants pounded the Stockton Ports 10-5:

Brock Bond(2B)- 2 for 4, BB.  BA= .261.
Matt Duffy(SS)- 2 for 5, 2 2B.  BA= .400.
Ricky Oropesa(1B)- 2 for 5, 2B, HR(4).  BA= .363.
Devin Harris(DH)- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .260.
Chris Lofton(LF)- 2 for 3, 2B, SF.  BA= .256.
Jason Forjet(RHP)- 3.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 3.03.
Jeff Soptic(RHP)- 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 6.07.

Matt Duffy!!

Low A  Asheville Tourists outlasted the Augusta Greenjackets 7-5 in 11 innings:

Trevor Brown(2B)- 3 for 5, 2B.  BA= .263.
Joey Rapp(1B)- 2 for 5, 2B.  BA= .229.
Chuckie Jones(RF)- 3 for 5, 2B, HR(6).  BA= .217.
Joe Biagini(RHP)- 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 9 K's.  ERA= 4.54.

This is Chuckie Jones' age 20 season and his 4'th as a professional.  The Giants have 1 more season after this before they have to decide whether to protect him from the Rule 5 draft by adding him to the 40 man roster.

Short Season  Tri-City Dust Devils topped the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 2-1:

Randy Ortiz(CF)- 2 for 4.  BA= .281.
Chase Johnson(RHP)- 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 0.00.
Cameron McVey(RHP)- 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 3.54.

14 scoreless IP for the Giants 3'rd round draft pick.

Rookie AZL Game 1  Giants crushed the Brewers 11-2:

Brett Kay(2B)- 2 for 5, 3B.  BA= .333.
Christian Arroyo(SS)- 3 for 4, 2B.  BA= .284.
Ryder Jones(DH)- 2 for 3, SF.  BA= .438.
Jonathan Jones(1B)- 2 for 3, 2 HR, HBP.  BA= .222.
Johneswhy Fargas(CF)- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .370.
Michael Connolly(RHP)- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

Rookie AZL Game 2  Giants made it a twinkilling of the Brewers 4-1:

Rando Moreno(SS)- 2 for 3, 2 2B, BB.  BA= .328.
Christian Arroyo(DH)- 2 for 3, 2B.  BA= .300.
Ryder Jones(3B)- 1 for 2, 2B, BB.  BA= .440.
Carlos Diaz(LHP)- 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 4.22.
Dusten Knight(RHP)- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 2.35.
Eury Sanchez(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's, Save(6).  ERA= 0.00.

Arroyo reaches .300!  Ryder Jones keeps raking.  Fargas is quietly off to a nice start to his pro career.

DSL Game 1   D'Backs defeated the Giants 5-3:

Carlos Valdez(LF, 19 yo)- 2 for 3, 2B, HR(3).  BA= .268.
Nicol Parra(DH, 18 yo)- 0 for 1, BB, 2 HBP, 2 SB(14).  BA= .240.

DSL Game 2  Giants blanked the D'Backs 5-0:

Robinson Medrano(PH-RF, 17 yo)- 2 for 3, SB(6).  BA= .286.
Reymi Rodriguez(RHP, 18 yo)- 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K's. ERA= 0.93.

Like Reymi's profile, 6'2", 195 lbs.  He has 29 K's against 8 BB's in 29 IP with a GO/AO= 1.89.


  1. In Angel's case, are we seeing here that he's getting better pitches to hit in Richmond or just small sample size?

    1. Mostly sample size, but I think he has a special bat and is making rapid progress. A most interesting story to see how it plays out.

  2. I'm perplexed by the better BA he's posting in Richmond. Not as much, though, by his ability to reemerge so quickly as a prospect with such a prolonged absence. I guess if you got it, you got it.

    Can he hang at 1B, or does he end up in the AL as a DH? Ideally he sticks, at which point....Belt becomes our LF in a year or two?


    1. Most reports are that despite his size, he's a good defender at 1B. Of course, that's assuming he does not get any bigger.

      His hitting in Richmond is probably more perplexing for the power, as power is known to be damped down in the EL, while hitting is not as much. He was hitting roughly that well for San Jose after his initial 10 games adjustment period, for about two months, then mysteriously was struggling before he got promoted despite his recent struggles. It appears that he got down by not being promoted yet, and once the Giants did, he perked up again.

      I think given both Posey playing frequently at 1B and Villalona perhaps coming up soon, the sooner the Giants move Belt to LF, the better. Plus, there is Sandoval, who if we do resign him, probably is headed to 1B at some point.

    2. I saw him play several times earlier this season. I would say he is an adequate first basemen. He's not going to make anyone forget JT Snow or even Brandon Belt.

      I do not believe there is any basis at all for ogc's speculation that Villalona was pouting about not being promoted. All players go through ups and downs in hitting. It's part of the rhythm of baseball. HIs slump that occured just prior to promotion was most likely sample size driven.

      Whenever I saw him play, he appeared to be playing hard and having a fun on the field.

    3. I'll admit that I overreached on Angel's motivation, but I did say it "appears".

      But it is still very odd that the Giants promoted him after his stats went way down for nearly a month, after he hit well enough to deserve a promotion for around six weeks. He looked deserving earlier, hitting .298/.333/.646/.979 from April 14 to June 3rd, but not so much in June, from June 4th to June 29th, he only hit .183/.244/.207/.452 with only 2 XBH in 15 hits, two doubles, no homers in 82 AB/90 PA.

      That is a very cold stretch over almost a month, not really SSS, not really a profile of someone who then gets promoted.

    4. I'm with you, ogc. Not sure what the reason was, but it seemed odd given the timing. He simply wasn't hitting that well at the time...and a month is a decent amount of time.


    5. For the umteenth time, the switch was more to get Ricky out of his rut than to promote Angel V! At the same time, less than a month is a SSS. Just because his numbers were low does not mean he was dogging it or was playing poorly. Maybe the coaches could see he was still swinging the bat well and was just in a down cycle in the luck department. There are other factors and other sources available to the decisionmakers besides what we see on stat sheets and comment on here.

    6. I don't know that bumping someone up a level when they haven't mastered their current level is the best approach. If they moved Angel V up to accommodate Ricky's struggles, than it would appear he's the favored prospect. If that's not the case, I don't see why the swap theory makes sense.


    7. I don't see it as necessarily favoring Angel V. If the brass sees that Ricky is down in the mouth and needs a change of scenery, then the priority is where he needs to be playing even if it's at a lower level. I could cite numerous examples of players who are clearly nothing more than organizational players who get bumped up 1 or 2 levels because there is an organizational need there.

      Having said that, so far it looks like Angel V is grabbing the opportunity and making the most of it. I do think he's in a place where rapid improvement is possible.

      We'll just have to see how it plays out.

  3. Wow, Duffy- nice debut. He seems to always be rising to the occasion. The age isn't bothering me one bit.

    1. He didn't rise to the occasion with Salem-Keizer in 2012, 47 games, 216 PA, only .247/.361/.286/.647, which was part of the calculus into why Duffy, while performing well in Augusta, would need to continue to prove it at a higher level. I never said he had no potential of being a contributor at the MLB level. You just have to take his Augusta numbers with a strong grain of salt and he will need to prove himself at every level, and his numbers does not make him a strong prospect. A nice interesting prospect to follow, but he's not profiling as a starter either.

      Here is some stat on why I note relative age, Matt Duffy stats vs. pitchers:

      vs. Younger: .331/.422/.461/.883, 3 HR in 154 AB
      vs. Older P: .283/.385/.384/.769, 1 HR in 138 AB

      And one game is proof of nothing other than a nice debut. Just like his .219/.324/.250/.574 batting line in his first 9 games of Augusta was not proof of anything either, he eventually found his batting legs.

    2. Duffy did have that reverse K/BB at S-K.

  4. Certainly gives us some stuff to think about. If Angel continues to hit, then he forces the Belt issue and we either trade him or move him to left. I also think that the Posey to first thing could be a block for both of Angel and Belt; Posey was a SS, no? He can field 1b better than adequately, and if we had legit new catchers (Susac?), then maybe you move him and you have two guys for trade bait.

    Personally, I think the one thing that seems more likely than not, is us not resigning Panda and maybe even trading him. I love what he did for us, but his weight issue is becoming a problem. He's not physically fit and injuries will always be an issue. Maybe he could move to first, but I just don't see that happening given 3 other candidates there.

    Other random thoughts:

    Can someone PLEASE EXPLAIN how the heck Adrianza is hitting at AAA? What, body snatchers? I just don't get it. I do recognize he's been on our Top 20 prospects, but he's never hit before like this.

    Can Duffy play 2b? :)

    1. RE Adrianza: 1. He's only had 33 AB's in AAA, so let's not get too excited just yet. 2. I think he is a lot better hitter than most give him credit for. Go look up his secondary numbers on The Baseball Cube and/or Fangraphs. He has maintained walk rates of 8-10% his whole career. He has kept his K rates below 18% in all but 1 season. This makes for a not at all terrible K/BB. In addition, his IsoP's have not been terrible given the position he plays and his reputation for being a no-hit guy.

    2. The key is that he's been young for his level and yet able to get his bat on the ball well enough to keep his strikeouts relatively low (i.e. keep his contact rate higher) as well as take a lot of walks. That's what made Sandoval and Hanchez interesting to me even though their batting lines were never that great.

      And Adrianza has hit like this before, in 2011, in SJ, he hit .300/.375/.470/.845 with 80.4% contact rate, 0.54 K/BB ratio, which is good enough. And at 21, that's the age top prospects tackle Advanced A, generally, but since I don't expect him to be more than an average player at the major league level (though there is that potential), I've been not as down on his struggles as others have been. As far as I'm concerned, he's been doing fine giving his age, level, and expected MLB role.

  5. Giants call up Surkamp using their extra 26th man allowance for doubleheaders, but called up Yusmeiro Petit and sent down Kontos, to cover themselves for long relief.

    Petit's call up requires a corresponding 40 man roster move. As you'll recall we just DFAed Huston (and the Giants apparently just released him rather than keep him in the system) in order to clear up space for Casilla.

    I have no idea what the Giants are going to do, will be interesting and it will probably hurt even more than losing Huston. My best guess before was Runzler and I guess that is what I'll stick with as speculation.

    1. Giants designated Hunter Strickland for assignment. He's been on the DL for most of the season, which presumably will discourage other teams from picking him up and placing him on their 40 man roster. But his numbers were really great for the Giants when he was pitching, so there is that.

  6. Thanks Doc! I agree that it is way too early. More surprised he's doing well after the promotion (when he wasn't hitting all that well).


  7. I would love to see Posey switch to third base at some time in the future. My guess is that he could probably field it ok, it could allow us to trade Panda, make room for Susac and keep the log jam at first base in check a bit.

    1. I had originally thought that Posey would take the route that Astro's player took, moving from C to 2B (name starts with B), but with the leg injury, I think 3B is probably more his speed now, and that is where I hope he ends up when he's ready to move from C (I am hoping that Susac will force the issue in a year or two).

      But to trade Panda, ideally we trade him this off-season, so that the other team can get the draft pick, and so they would be willing to give up more talent in exchange for him.

      I would still rather keep him and see if he can get a handle on his weight. 900+ OPS hitters don't grow on trees and I would rather take a chance on a good hitter than whatever prospects the other team is willing to give up for him, other teams generally don't give up their good prospects in exchange to you, you can usually count on a discount in the talent you get in exchange. Studies (albeit by the same guy) show that teams generally know the talent they are giving up and give up the lesser talents to the other team. So teams giving up a good known talent, like Sandoval, is taking a large risk in trading.