With Pablo Sandoval virtually assured of being the starting third baseman for the Giants next year, there really isn't a need to delve into the available 3B FA's. The question with Sandoval is what happens over the next 3 seasons? Can he prove he is able to maintain his weight and conditioning? Is he the type of player the Giants should invest in a big dollar long term contract that extends beyond his arbitration years? Personally, if I was in Sabes' shoes, I'd go year to year with Pablo and make the decision about locking him up as late as possible. Make him prove he can stay in shape every year in between. Pablo is a guy who is blessed with extraordinary athletic talent that is packaged in a very bad body. Whereas most players can control their weight by an ounce of self control and a reasonable workout regimen, Pablo will have to to to extraordinary lengths, some quite painful, to maintain a semblance of control on his weight. I'm just not sure you ever want to commit to 5+ years with somebody like that. Stinks for Pablo, but unfortunately for him, you can discriminate against certain body types in baseball. With that background looming, let's look at who might make the Giants willing to let some other team gamble on Pablo down the road:
AAA
Conor Gillaspie 6'1", 195 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 7/18/1987. .297/.389/453, 22 2B, 6 3B, 11 HR, 9 SB, 9 CS. Apparently the Giants have a 4'th option on Conor Gillaspie. I remember they had one on Todd Linden too, and he wasn't too happy about it. Gillaspie started to look a bit more like Bill Mueller in 2011 with an excellent OBP the most salient feature of his game. If he does get sent down to Fresno for an encore, it would probably be wise for him to play several positions. including 2B, as he may not dislodge Pablo for awhile. He was a very mechanical fielder with a weak arm when I saw him play for San Jose a couple of years ago. Maybe he's gotten better, but I'm still thinking he might be a tweener: Not enough bat for 3B and not enough glove for 2B.
AA
Chris Dominguez 6'3", 215 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 11/22/1986. High A: .291/.337/.465, 11 HR. AA: .244/.272/.403, 7 HR. I saw Chris play for San Jose early in the season. He certainly looks like a big league ballplayer! 6'3", 215 is big but he looks significantly bigger than that out on the field. Dominguez' stock had to take a jump up in 2011 as he dominated High A and held his own in AA although he did tail off at the end of the season a bit. He may not ever hit for a high average at the MLB level, but if he can avoid Dave Kingman territory, he will hit some long taters! He's one guy who might even challenge The Glove in left-center at AT&T. He's not an agile fielder, but has a rifle arm and could probably pitch if he had to. If Gillaspie is going back to Fresno, Chris might be stuck in Richmond for at least another half season.
HIGH A
Alex Burg 6'0", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 8/9/1987. .298/.369/.550, 24 2B, 14 HR in 262 AB. Burg is officially a catcher, but he played a lot of 3B and some 1B for the Little Giants and, oh man, did he ever hit! He's a slightly smaller version of Tommy Joseph, very tightly packed. In fact, I mistook him for Joseph in a game I attended near the end of the season in San Bernardino! Anyway, he hit pretty well in 2010 too, so I don't think it's a fluke. A guy with a bat like that who can play multiple positions, including catcher, has a tremendous shot a pretty good major league career, even if it's always as a utility guy. If you are looking for deep sleepers, you could do a lot worse than starting your list with Alex Burg.
LOW A
Adam Duvall 6'1", 205 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 9/4/1988. .285/.385/.527, 30 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR. Drafted as a 2B out of Louisville in 2010, Duvall played exclusively 3B in 2011 and put on an impressive hitting display for Augusta, a tough place for power hitters. He committed a lot of errors which I would expect to diminish has he gains experience at the position. He certainly has the bat for it. Another deep sleeper, maybe not quite as deep as Burg, but I don't think very many people know about him.
SHORT SEASON
Garrett Buechele 6'0", 200 lbs, B-R, T-R, BD: 10/23/1989. Rookie AZL: .308/.325/.513, 2 HR in 39 AB. SS: .235/.288/.350, 5 HR. Garrett is the son of former MLB player Steve Buechele. They seem to be cut out of a similar cloth as players. Steve had a career line of .245/.316/.394. I see a similar ceiling for Garrett, but he's more likely to end up in Ryan Rohlinger territory.
ROOKIE AZL
Jose Cuevas 6'2", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 4/5/1988. .337/.403/.639, 9 HR, 9 SB, 2 CS. Before you get too excited by the numbers, consider that Cuevas was a college draftee repeating rookie ball. He'll have to prove it at higher levels.
Christian Paulino 5'10", 168 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 9/4/1991. .277/.379/.438, 10 SB, 1 CS. Very intriguing player. Came on strong late in the season posting a .345/.472/.517 line over his last 10 games. Listed as a 3B but I think he played some 2B which may be a better position for him. Seems to have a nice potential combination of on-base skill, power and speed. Still young enough to develop. Add him to your list of sleepers.
Stephen Yarrow 6'3", 215 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 11/30/1988. .286/.412/.371. Local kid from South Lake Tahoe who played college ball at USF. Signed as an undrafted FA. Probably projects more as a 1B which hurts his future stock. Probably an organizational player.
DSL
Royel Astacio 6'2", 197 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 9/27/1993. .218/.371/.306, 2 HR, 5 SB in 170 AB. Hit .306 over his last 10 games. Love the size and birthdate here. 2 HR's may not seem like much, but it's an accomplishement in the DSL.
Here's how I would rank them as prospects:
1. Chris Dominguez
2. Conor Gillaspie
3. Adam Duvall
4. Alex Burg
5. Garrett Buechele
6. Christian Paulino
7. Royel Astacio
8. Jose Cuevas
9. Stephen Yarrow
Paulino and Astacio are the two to watch for breakouts in the next year or two. I might have ranked both higher if it was based purely on ceiling. Just don't know enough about them yet.
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I'm with you on the ranking, although I've already mentally deleted Gillaspie as a prospect. And I suspect Buechele will end a 'tweener as well. I'm most looking forward to following Duvall's progress next year.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants let org filler Edgar Gonzalez go and Billie Boy lost no time snapping him up! Beane is emulating Sabean more every year.
ReplyDeleteI agree, lets see how this Duvall guy goes. Clangmitt, but 22 longballs at Augusta is sweet. Liked the description on Burg, didn't know much about him. Thanks DrB.
My mistake, different Edgar Gonzo, the pitcher. Still think Beane is copying Sabean a lot lately.
ReplyDeleteDrB - Dave Cameron is at it again - check out his fangraphs article on trading Lincecum. Here is the relevant passage for me:
And, that’s where the real rub for the Giants comes in. They play in AT&T Park, a place that can make any generic right-hander look fantastic. Whether it’s park effects, the influence of Dave Righetti, or some magical being hanging out in the air in San Francisco
I have to crack up that a stat geek like Cameron has decided to blame the air in SF for pitching success...
Shank,
ReplyDeleteI have explained the Giants pitching success in general, and Matt Cain's in particular, to Dave Cameron several times. He just can't bring himself to acknowledge that someone other than himself might have some insight into why a statistical anomaly might occur. He'd rather go on believing that's it's some mysterious unexplainable force.
I guess he interviewed Rags during spring training and Rags denied that the Giants are willing to give up more walks in order to suppress HR's. Since he published the interview in a part of Fangraphs that requires a membership, I can't see how he phrased the question.
All I know is I've watched a lot of Giants pitching and am fairly certain of a few things:
1. They value fastball command to both sides of the plate. Well placed fastballs don't leave the park.
2. They don't give into hitters. It's not that they are intentionally walking anybody. It's that they are confident enough that they are still trying to hit the corner even when they are behind on the count, even with 3 ball counts even with runners on base.
I am convinced that is how they can be predominantly flyball pitchers and still lead the league in HR's allowed year after year, even on the road!
DrB -
ReplyDeleteI enjoy reading fangraphs. I try to turn off my homer hat when I enter. Cameron's refusal to evaluate the stats on their own merit is strange to me. Matt Cain obviously has enough of a record at this point to be judged fairly. The whole "trade value" series with Gallardo being ranked and Bumgarner not making the grade followed by a pretty weak proposal for Timmy here (I saw you demand the Killer B's in the comments) coupled with that statement I quoted just makes me wonder a bit.
Cameron is discounting the pitchers natural talent AND their ability to learn how to pitch. I've seen a lot of their pitching as well, I agree with your observations. They are so good when I watch other games I cringe at how bad some pitching is, especially this playoff season. And yes, sometimes that tilts me towards some irrational statements about Bochy/our hitters/etc.
The Giants draft for fastball control. This has been going on for a long time, and they've really honed in on it. Not only that, we have the coaching to work on that control. That is one reason we are consistently at the top of strikeouts, BAA, ERA, WHIP etc. I resent Cameron's implication that once removed from the Giants these pitchers become average, whether its Raggs the fog or the park (and yes - great point about our road splits). Its weak sauce from a smart guy. The Giants have the ability to identify, refine and develop the talent.
I love that Matt Cain's Xfip still produces such bewilderment. He came in a hurler, he's now a very very sweet pitcher. I agree with your comment about Timmy - his body is going to be more of a question going forward - but he is "The Franchise"! And Madison Bumgarner - that dude is Andy Petitte with a mean streak. It would not surprise me to see him be the best of the 3.
Our pitchers don't give in to hitters. That is the end statement - natural ability coupled with good coaching. But I think the Giants targeted these guys for personality in addition to ability, and have done an amazing job. This staff is something you tell your grandchildren about, they are that special.
rip matty alou
ReplyDeleteand if dominguez can work a bit on his foot work, he can easily challenge pablo for 3rd
kid waves a huge stick
Never saw Matty play for the Giants. I started following baseball in 1966. By then, he was with the Pirates. I've always been intrigued by what Harry "The Hat" Walker could do with slappy little guys like him.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like "the Giants should trade Lincecum" is popping up everywhere on the blogosphere. I don't think it will happen but it would be interesting to see what we could get in return. Do you think we could get Cano and Montero from the Yanks or is that too little for a dominant starter? What about Cruz and Kinsler? Anybody have an idea on what realistically he would be worth?
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't make much sense to me to trade Lincecum for another player that is going to cost just as much going forward. Might as well keep him if that's what the return is. Yes, Cano is a great player, but you've just created a hole in your roster to fill another one.
ReplyDeleteIf you trade a Timmy, you want to get at least 3-4 high ceiling prospects at least 1 or 2 of whom is MLB ready. That way, you can re-allocate costs while expanding the overall talent supply in the organization.
That's why my proposal would be a package of Montero, Banuelos and Betances from the Yanks then possibly flipping Montero to an AL team for 2-3 more MLB ready players at other positions such as SS, 2B or OF.
From Boston, I'd be looking for maybe Iglesias, Middlebrooks and Ranaudo. From Texas I'd start with Profar and Martin Perez.
Yeah, for the right deal, moving Timmy makes sense.
ReplyDeleteTimmy is not the pitcher he was a couple of years ago, but still has the hype. And it's a sellers market for pitching.
Maybe the Giants move Timmy and then sign someone like Oswalt to fill the gap for a couple of years. And sign Cain long-term.
Hate to do it, because we all love Timmy. The deal would have to be outstanding for the Giants.
A few notes from a guy who reads often, but almost never comments:
ReplyDeleteShankbone -
I totally agree with your statement about Madison Bumgarner. His deceptive delivery, his strength/size combo, age and his temperament all lead me to believe his ceiling is as high as Lincecum or Cain. He also has tremendous pressure experience in the playoffs already, which shouldn't go overlooked.
About trading Lincecum -
Tim Lincecum really has been an unbelievable Giant. His presence is enormous, both on the mound and from a sales and merch standpoint, which must get factored into a players' value for a team.
If you were to trade him, you would have to have at least one young, sure-thing star, think Andrew McCutchen, for instance. On top of that, I would want another young, able major leaguer and probably 2 top prospects and 1 or 2 mid level prospects.
My opinion is that if you trade a guy like Lincecum, you don't build for the future necessarily because you HAVE TO WIN after the trade or else the fanbase will quickly turn.
Thoughts?
-Andrew
you dont trade the franchise unless you get back the pieces that will make you a perennial winner
ReplyDeleteand sabean has yet to make such a trade
aint gonna happen
and oswalt is no longer a 1-2 guy
timmy is fine....bochy has to stop trying to have the kid throw 130 pitches in a game
and i suggest you all look at what the snakes are gonna have for their sp before you start talking trade timmy
check that...i would trade timmy
if the mlb changes the rules and allows first year draftees to be traded, i would trade timmy for cole hamels
kid is only gonna spend a season in the minors
send the bucs timmy and caishe
Bacci,
ReplyDeleteI think you mean Gerrit Cole?
I don't think the Bucs would trade Cole for Timmy because Cole looks like he could be just as good and will be cheap for at least 4 years while Timmy is beaucoup expensive right now.
You'd have to trade Timmy to a big spending team like Yanks, Boston, Texas, Angels, Detroit.....
Maybe an Ellsbury + Jed Lowrie+Ranaudo from Boston?
Gardner+Betances+Banuelos from the Yanks?
Agree, ain't gonna happen.
With Posey, Pablo and Bum getting expensive real soon, Sabes is eventually going to have to leverage one of his stars for younger, cheaper talent sooner or later even if Zito is off the payroll by then.
What I meant to say is "ain't gonna happen this year.....but......sooner or later....."
ReplyDeleteI didn't mean to say that Oswalt would replace Timmy. Oswalt is a 3 on his to 4 guy. But he is a decent arm. And the Giants would need something to fill the rotation.
ReplyDeleteI pretty much agree that Sabean won't move Tim. Probably isn't ALLOWED to move him. But, by most measures, Lincecum is declining. Albeit, he's gone from insanely great to simply great.
Compare that to Cain's stats, which are improving.
It's no burden to keep Tim and pay him. But, for the right return, I think once you get past the amazing nostalgia of the Freak, I think you take the trade.
Its a rational exercise to look at Timmy's trade value. And based on his stats he did go from unworldly to merely excellent in the past 2 years. Great athletes find another gear, or develop a new plan. I think to some extent the league has adjusted to him - not as many chases on his "changeup" in the dirt, taking more pitches to run up his count, those type of things. Also he at times seems a bit checked out, which in the 2nd half of the year was understandable with all his Cain type luck with run support. Still, I believe Timmy will come back with something new. There is always the risk for his frame/motion breakdown, but he's been doubted his entire career and constantly put up results.
ReplyDeleteIts very hard to trade a potential hall of famer. The Tom Seaver trade. Think about that for a second. And on the irrational front, before the stupid SI nickname, Timmy is "The Franchise" - the first new hope in a gloom of mediocrity. (Yeah most didn't realize just how good Matt Cain was then) At some point one of our guys might need trading but my fan side says "Hell No" and that's why I'm just fine not going after any of the big free agents ever. (Until McClutchen comes on the market at least)
But there are some chinks in Tim's armor for sure - think about our must win game with AZ, on that homestand - Timmy just didn't have it. Those are the types of games you have to have him be the stopper and he wasn't. Vogelsong was that guy this past year. I think a good comparable to Timmy is Pedro, very similar body types. It would be a rational assumption that Timmy might have 4-6 years before his skills might start eroding fast. Or he could prove everybody wrong again. Great point about listening to trade offers and for the right Herschel Walker type trade, it should be done. But my fan side will hate it, and I can't get Tom Seaver out of my mind as a comparable.
Interesting comp to Seaver. I've always thought of Matt Cain as Seaver's secret progeny. They are just so similar in body type, delivery, stuff and bulldog mentality on the mound.
ReplyDeletethats what i get for posting when im half asleep
ReplyDeleteyes, gerrit cole
and i know its an absurd trade, but its the only kind i would make for timmy
now next offseason, decisions have to be made...all which depend on how the pitching in the minors looks
would be much easier if wheeler were still in the org...and zito were not a part of it
Realistically, the pitching in the minors is at least 3 years away, unless you still think Eric Surkamp is going to be more than a mediocre 5'th starter. That's why I think any trade involving the Big 2(Timmy and Cain) has to have at least one young, high ceiling, MLB ready pitcher coming back as part of the package, but it's ain't gonna be Gerrit Cole.
ReplyDelete