I think there are some truths becoming increasingly evident on the MLB scene: 1. Strong bullpens are essential to winning championships. 2. Strong bullpens need at least 1 LHP. 2 LHP's are better. 3. Good LHRP's are relatively scarce. By corollary, they are also getting more expensive.
One way for MLB teams to save an easy $5-10 M is to maintain a stream of LHRP's coming up through the minors to replace veterans who are making $4-5 M/yr. Given the paucity of good options at the MLB level, it should be relatively easy to develop replacement level talent or better through the draft and farm system. Let's take a look at what the Giants have brewing Down on the Farm:
MLB/AAA
Dan Runzler 6'4", 235 lbs. BD: 3/30/1985. AAA 2-3, 3.98, 52 IP, 32 BB, 59 K's, GO/AO= 1.47. MLB 1-2, 6.26, 27.1 IP, 16 BB, 25 K's, GO/AO= 1.38. Runzler is technically not a prospect even though he will likely start the season in Fresno. He has the stuff to be a shut down closer, dominant setup man or even a dominant starter. His big problem is command/control. The Giants are still tinkering with making him a starter, although that effort flagged about midseason after a half-hearted trial. He did get one start at the MLB level that ended badly. In one memorable AB early in the season, Runzler abused a red hot Carlos Gonzalez so badly it put CarGo into a 2 month slump! At other times, Dan the Man couldn't find home plate to save his life. His splits seem to indicate that he actually does better against RH batters. With Lopez and Affeldt signed for 2012, I'd like to see the Giants put Runzler in the rotation in Fresno and just leave him there for the season. I think it's easier to move back to reliever than to starter.
AAA
Jason Stevenson 6'1", 175 lbs. BD: 8/8/1981. AA 1-0, 1.29, 7 IP, 2 BB, 7 K's. AAA 1-0, 5.56, 11.1 IP, 5 BB, 9 K's. If this guy ever makes it to the majors, his story will rival Ryan Vogelsong's. Signed by the Giants out of indy ball last year after he was out of professional baseball for several years, he had some good and bad outings in a very small sample size, too small to get a read on splits.
Wilmin Rodriguez 6'2", 220 lbs. BD: 5/13/1985. AA 4-3, 3.77, 57.1 IP, 23 BB, 38 K's. AAA 0-0, 9.00, 7 IP, 6 BB, 5 K's. Wilmin has been around seemingly forever in the lower levels of the organization. I saw him pitch in 2010 for San Jose. He's a big LHP who can get the heater up to 93 MPH. K/BB ratios are much better against LH batters. He just re-upped as a minor league FA with the Giants and got a spring training invite in the process. He's getting old but still has left specialist potential.
Matt Yourkin 6'3", 240 lbs. BD: 7/4/1981. 10-8, 4.69, 167 IP, 56 BB, 145 K. Yourkin has been a starter for Fresno the last 2 years with decent results, but not enough to project him as a MLB starter. Look at his split against LH batters though: 3.09 ERA, 46.2 IP, 8 BB, 47 K's! He's a left specialist!
AA
David Quinowski 5'10", 170 lbs. BD: 4/23/1986. 4-3, 3.64, 54.1 IP, 19 BB, 39 K's. Drafted in the 46'th round in 2004 and signed as as draft and follow in 2005. Moved smartly through the lower minors despite his relatively small size. Had TJ and missed 2008 and essentially started over in 2009. His ceiling at this point is probably as a lefty reliever specialist.
HIGH A
Ari Ronick 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 3/25/1986. 3-1, 3.56, 60.2 IP, 36 BB, 54 K's. First season back after TJ. Pitched in relief for SJ. No discernable L-R split.
Tom Vessella 6'6", 205 lbs. BD: 10/12/1985. 4 levels 4-6, 5.50, 72 IP, 45 BB, 50 K's. Picked up by the Giants after he was dropped by the Astros system. Was worse against LH hitters in a very small sample. Tough to project any kind of MLB career for him at this point.
LOW A
Gaspar Santiago 6'0", 200 lbs. BD: 9/23/1989. 3-7, 94.2 IP, 53 BB, 88 K's. Swing man for Augusta. Worse against LH batters in a very small sample.
Ryan Bradley 6'1", 180 lbs. BD: 7/15/1988. 4-2, 4.31, 79.1 IP, 32 BB, 48 K's. 30'th round pick in 2010. Another swing guy for Augusta. Numbers unimpressive. Son of Giants minor league pitching coordinator Bert Bradley.
SHORT SEASON
Jack Snodgrass 6'6", 216 lbs. BD: 12/10/1987. 4-1, 3.59, 47.2 IP, 14 BB, 44 K's, GO/AO= 2.77. Nice numbers for his pro debut. Started 4 games and was better as a starter so we'll see how he develops.
Phil McCormick 6'1", 184 lbs. BD: 9/7/1988. 1-1, 1.19, 30.1 IP, 11 BB, 29 K's, GO/AO= 3.43, 6 Saves. Another excellent pro debut. Used exclusively as a reliever and even as a closer.
Chris Gloor 6'6", 255 lbs. BD: 3/7/1987. 3 levels 3-1, 3.34, 29.2 IP, 11 BB, 36 K's. Sleeper alert! Huge LHP, drafted in 2009, missed part of 2011 apparently due to injury. If he's healthy, I could see him rising quickly through the system. Could dominate as a lefty relief specialist.
Aaron King 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 4/27/1989. 3 levels 0-2, 6.62, 35.1 IP, 36 BB, 36 K's. Physically gifted LHP who has battled control demons. Did not seem to make progress with those in 2011. Still has some time to work them out.
ROOKIE AZL
Brian Maloney 6'0", 176 lbs. BD: 10/4/1988. 1-0, 3.55, 12.2 IP, 5 BB, 21 K's. SS 0-1, 18.00, 5 IP, 11 BB, 7 K's. Small college LHP made a nice debut in rookie ball, but struggled after a late season promo to S-K.
Steven Neff 6'2", 195 lbs. BD: 2/24/1989. 0-0, 29.25, 4 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's. Nice ratios but got pounded in a very small sample size. Managed to record 1 Save.
DSL
Franklin Noel 6'1", 175 lbs. BD: 12/20/1988. 2-5, 3.51, 33.1 IP, 14 BB, 37 K's, GO/AO= 2.15, 16 Saves. Noel was the closer for the DSL Giants but 22 is extremely old for the level. Probably not a prospect even to be a lefty specialist.
Ebert Fernandez 6'3", 192 lbs. BD: 10/28/1990. 5-3, 4.17, 49.2 IP, 23 BB, 36 K, GO/AO= 2.80. 4'th season in the DSL which does not bode well.
2011 DRAFTEE
Bryce Bandilla 6'4", 237 lbs. BD: 1/16/1990. Arizona(college) 5-2, 3.66, 46.2 IP, 36 BB, 48 K's. Big brute of a LHP who has clocked 97 MPH with the fastball. Has a good change up to go with it, but essentially no breaking ball. Had control issues his junior season in college. The Giants drafted him for his arm in the 4'th round and may try to convert him to starting. Could advance more quickly as a reliever but has to command the strike zone. Might have trouble against left batters if he doesn't develop a breaking ball.
Mitchell Beacom 6'8", 260 lbs. BD: 7/4/1989. 0-2, 2.20, 32.2 IP, 9 BB, 38 K's. Huge sidewinding lefty who could be the quintessential left specialist. That's how he was used in college and what he projects as in the pros. Can't wait to see this guy pitch in person!
Geno Espinelli, Alex Hinshaw, Chuck Lofgren and Justin Dowdy are all minor league FA's this year. BTW, for a complete sortable list of minor league FA's, check out Baseball America.
Not an illustrious bunch, but here's how I would rank 'em as prospects(leaving out Runzler):
1. Bryce Bandilla
2. Chris Gloor
3. Jack Snodgrass
4. Phil McCormick
5. Mitchell Beacom
6. Aaron King
7. Wilmin Rodriguez
8. David Quinowski
9. Ari Ronick
10. Gaspar Santiago
11. The Rest.
4 of the top 5 came aboard in the last draft. We'll see if they flame out or if the Giants are putting more emphasis on trying to find lefty specialists in the draft.
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Great report as usual Doc.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on Runzler and hope the Giants are listening: Put him in the rotation in Fresno and leave him be in '12.
This list reminds me of Joe Paterson. I never understood why he was not protected last year. I am not the kind who would blame management about things I know nothing about. But keeping Hinshaw and letting Paterson go never made sense to me.
ReplyDeleteAloha Drb, I'm enjoying reading your minor league reports. I agree, the Giants don't get to and win the WS without Javior Lopez. He came up big facing Utley and Howard in the NLCS. Even good relief pitching is getting expensive in the majors. Luckily the Giants have 2 good lefty relievers right now.. I'm wondering if Josh Osich will be a lefty starter or reliever in begin his career? He might rank high on either list.
ReplyDeleteSomebody in the Giants organization absolutely loved Alex Hinshaw. Drafted him 3 different times (00, 01 and ultimately 05 - the Marlins snuck in on us in 03 or it might have been 4). Sometimes the Giants 40 man moves are a bit bizarre. Especially since Joe Paterson was featured in the AFL and pitched pretty well, it was definitely a weird move to not protect him. Clayton Tanner being let go with Sabean's assurances of a re-signing was another one this year (Cincy snagged him immediately).
ReplyDeleteDrB threw it all down already in the Lopez/Affeldt article, but internet GMs calling it "10MM on mediocre relievers" are really missing the point. Its actually much harder to find good lefties than Saber pundits would have you think, and it obviously has paid off big time the past 2 years having two top 10 dudes. You can't just go replace them, there is a huge shortage. And its one of the Giants best strengths, the ability and develop pitching talent. In a market that Philly has made crazy, our 2 guys resigning is going to be a huge bargain. But it would be a good idea to have 1-2 guys ready to go for 2013.
Seems like the Giants have near-to-nothing ready to go in the minors as far as relief pitching is concerned, aside from Heath Hembree. Is this just a little worrying to anyone else, or is it just me? For a team that relies on bullpen depth (as all teams are starting to realize they must do) and the market for relievers getting crazy expensive, I think the Giants really need to look into concentrating some money in the 5-10 rounds of the draft next year on big arms that can turn into relievers in the next few years.
ReplyDeleteVerdugo might have been someone really worth trying to keep around if he was a plausible relief arm that we could have held onto for a few years.
Additional question: How expensive are Ramon Ramirez and Castilla and Romo going to be this year??
Hey, thanks for the great comments everybody. I think Sabes more or less admitted that not protecting Paterson was a mistake. He said he thought it was because they sent him to the AFL and that gave the D'Backs a chance to scout him. Not sure they wouldn't have taken him anyway. He as an obvious Rule 5 target. I don't think there is any question that Paterson should have been protected over Hinshaw.
ReplyDeleteNext up is RH Relief Pitchers. I think you'll find it's not quite as bleak as on the lefty side of things. I think the Giants picks in rounds 4-7 told you they are serious about rebuilding the farm system pitching with big arms whether they be for starting or the bullpen.
Can't wait for the righty relievers. I am most excited to see Brett Bochy. I thought it was a courtesy pick for his dad, but this kid can pitch. What a steal for the 20th round. He should probably end up in San Jose.
ReplyDeleteI am starting to think Melky is it for our offensive improvement. Everybody is saying Beltran will be too expensive and Reyes, Fielder, or Pujols becoming Giants are pipe dreams. I can see us going for a veteran or two on minor league deals with invitations to Spring Training hoping they will be the 2010 version of Huff. McLouth? This may be true for an aging starting pitcher. Erik Bedard? McLouth is a huge stretch but someone like that who may not have any takers. If we are not going to spend money on a big free agent, we might as well try to find lightning in a bottle with someone who has everything to gain by playing their best for another contract.
I would actually be OK with a starting OF of Nate, Melky and Belt with an IF of Huff, FSanchez, Crawford and Pablo with Buster behind the plate. Do a little dumpster diving to scare up some reserves and roll with it. I know that's not the popular sentiment but I think that lineup would score some runs. You'd need a RH leaning bench to make it work though.
ReplyDeleteHere's my wish list for reserves: DeRosa, Barmes, Doumit, Pill, Torres.
The lineup as currently constructed would averaged somewhere around 4.3 RS per game, which with our pitching would net around 95wins. So, like DrB, I am OK with the lineup as is, though the thought of getting Beltran makes me giddy.
ReplyDeleteNobody from the Giants have said that Beltran is not doable or even that they have stopped pursuing him. Talking heads from the media who do not follow the Giants close enough take a few statements and make their assumptions. Sabean haters then take it from there and blow things out of proportion so that they can take another pot shot at him.
All Sabean said after Melky deal is that the Giants will reassess the situation. What do people expect him to say, "go ahead Dan, have your way with me, I will give a lot of money to sign Carlos?". We knew he was after a CF and despite that said the Giants are interested in Beltran. After this trade, the Giants are arguably spending even less money on payroll. Why would that take Beltran off the table?
The way I see it, the Giants want Beltran and he would not mind returning, but wants the best contract he can get. So it is a matter of the Giants waiting out the other teams and see where the bidding goes. At worse they got Belt.for LF or even Huff, plus maybe Torres and/or Ross also battling for OF spot. I think they would start in CF if they win the job, with Melky LF, else Melky gets CF.
But if the bidding does not go past 3 years, then I think the Giants have a chance of getting him. He is the only clear upgrade FA who is not asking for a 5-7 year contract, so that makes him attractive to the Giants. Plus, they might be willing to go another year, they could always trade him to AL team if his bat holds up, like Burks. And it is not like we have a lot of sure things in OF prospects.
Agree with OGC here. I got to thinking after I wrote my last response that people would interpret it that I don't want the Giants to sign Beltran or some other upgrade FA. Yes, I'd be happy with that too, but that's frosting on the cake for me. I'm very satisfied with going into the season with Crawford at SS and Belt in LF. Anything more than that will be a pleasant surprise.
ReplyDeleteAgree with OGC as well, but the Sabey Sabes I know only trades FA guys as busts/contract dumps. Its a murderers row of questionable signings though: Tucker, Alfonso, Benitez, Morris and Durham. I have to luck closer but at first glance it looks like Michael Tucker was the first FA signing that Sabean traded. He also eventually dumped trade guys Livan, F-Rod and LaTroy Hawkins. Nothing of significance came back. You're saying Burks went on to CLE and hit well right OGC? Sabes didn't trade him.
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice to pay more money than years for Beltran. 2/30 with a 5MM buyout on the third 15MM year would be better than 3/36 in my opinion. 3/36 would most likely have a better chance of getting matched in the AL.
DrB I like your reserve wish list a lot. Doumit supposedly turned down the Bums 3MM/1 Year offer. Now what ex-pirate turned down the Doyers last year... Ryan Vogelsomething? Doumit's d leaves something to be desired but I really like the bat, could the G's be the mystery team bidding?
ReplyDeleteSo what you are saying, Shank, is that a 2/35 would be better than a 3/36? I do not see the logic.
ReplyDeleteFirst off, it sounds from the reports of mlbtraderumors that Doumit is being pursued by a few NL teams somewhere in that 3-4 mil range. He could be the Giants' target, which I have absolutely no problem with for 1 year.
ReplyDeleteAs for Beltran, I don't think it really matters whether we go 3 years. We know the risks and we have seen the rewards. Just his name and reputation make him a viable middle of the order hitter that needs to be respected. I keep saying his ability to switch hit alongside Pablo and Melky could really give the Giants unbelievable flexibility. Here's another vote for putting up the cash and going all out while we know this pitching is intact.
Calsnowskier-
ReplyDeleteThe logic is Beltran might sign for more money less years, which maybe an AL team won't go for. Overspend in dollars to avoid years. I bet a few teams will offer 3/36 - so far BOS and FL are the only interest in print but I bet it will expand, the logic is to overpay to win the bid now. I just think overpaying for less years is preferable to overbidding with 4/48 or something crazy like that, and I bet several teams come in around 3/36. Beltran's knees rebounded big time, but his 2 years before were pretty sketchy. (the main reason I want the G's nowhere near Furcal despite his good playoff play) If its a bust, make it as short a bust as possible.
Anon - I agree, 3 switch hitters would be pretty sweet. There are risks with every big free agent, that's why as OGC said getting the guy for the least # of years is a good way to hedge risk.
Shank, I gotcha.
ReplyDeleteI was only looking at it as what we would like to offer, not in strategy in how to attack him.
For what it's worth, Fangraphs just posted Bill James' projections for 2012. Here are the projections for Brandon Belt and Carlos Beltran. Guess which is which:
ReplyDelete.279/.369/.480, 20 HR, 8 SB, 128 Games.
.266/.358/.482, 25 HR, 11 SB, 151 Games.
Shank,
ReplyDeleteI might prefer Cody Ross to Torres if they are a similar price because of Ross RH bat and versatility. I think Ross is going to be disappointed with the offers he gets on the open market.
DrB you're playing that annoying Saber game now too? Mano...
ReplyDeleteI would guess Beltran is the first one because of the # of games. Obviously Bill James is an optimist who hasn't factored in Bruce Bochy on the 151 games for Belt. Seriously though, that is a very good argument for not throwing money at aging knees.
Cody Ross is underrated at this moment in time. He's also 3 years younger than Torres. I see your emphasis on right handed bats and I like it. Ross may not get the steals like Torres, but he is a fast smart baserunner. I really hope we get one of them back, the Giants need good role players and outfield depth. Due to Torres being much more effective hitting lefty Ross does look attractive to balance out Belt/Schierholtz.
I know this is off topic but is there any reason why we shouldn't be looking at Jerry Hairston Jr. for a utility guy as opposed to Fontenot or Barmes. He has a decent career OBP and he is good on the bases. I have heard he is a great clubhouse guy and wouldn't break the bank. Living in SoCal I can listen to the Angels, Padres, or Dodgers. I listen to the Padres channel because they talk about the NL West a lot but rarely talk about the Dodgers. They ranted about Jerry in 2010 and were sad to see him leave. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteRoger,
ReplyDeleteWell, other than I pretty much hate all Hairston's, yeah, Jerry Jr. would be a great utility option. I might think differently about him if he was on the team I root for.
Shank,
Yeah, projections are projections. There's a reason why they play the games. Bill James is known for being wildly optimistic about certain players. My own "eyeball" projection for Belt, though, is a .240 BA with 25 HR's so I thought it was interesting that James' system apparently sees him in a somewhat similar light.
Look up Brandon Crawford's James projection. It also is similar to my "eyeball" projection. I'm just not sure why he has Belt projected for almost 600 PA's and Crawford under 300. Still, if both players were given the job and put up those numbers for a whole season, I'd like the Giants chances of getting back into the postseason.
Shankbone, I never said that Burks was traded. My point was that good hitters still have value even as their legs go. If a team is willing to pay Burks 3years/$21M, that illustrates how much value Burks still had as a hitter. That value would still be there should he be on an extra year given him. A risk, yes, but at one year to secure his services, I think that is a trade off I can take.
ReplyDeleteThis is a fall and winter a special version of the ATF ball that summarizes all actions offseason by Indian players in the Arizona Fall League (AFL) and the Caribbean leagues.
ReplyDeleteBill James Crawford prediction: .232/.297/.340, 4HR, 6SB, 83 games. Is he expecting a Furcal signing for the other 79? I'm a bit fixated on defense up the middle, I'd take that or any marginal improvement on that. Also, if Crawford gets more games he will get to double digit HRs easier than the projection.
ReplyDeleteHere's Freddy Sanchez: .284/.335/.413, 6HR, 1SB in 116 games. Unfortunately I think 110 games is all we can hope for from Freddy, which is the main reason I am gung ho on signing Barmes. Who is currently .248/.303/.393, 13HR, 4SB in 142 games btw. That Keppinger/Cabrera combo we rolled out was really bad defensi- well, all around bad after Kepp's hot streak wore off. They are just projections for sure, I'm most interested in the games played for the established players. Those seem pretty accurate to me.
OGC - I figured that was what you were saying. I just don't see Sabean building a trade scenario into a multi-year signing, but he is embracing a few new strategies lately.
Been gung-ho on Beltran as a savior of the offense, now I'm reconsidering this, once games missed are factored in. He finished strong so its easy to look at the positive, but it was pretty frustrating having him out with that wrist injury. The only reason he played at less than 100% was his need for a contract year push. He won't do that normally, he's Don Carlos after all.
i cant see why craw couldnt hit 240 over an entire season, and with the amount of runs he would save with his glove and range...that would be plenty....and he has the speed and smarts to turn some of those singles into doubles
ReplyDeletedont want furcal...too injury prone
if the giant can keep their middle if and corner of young and cheap, they should be set for a long time
got panik in the wings if craw is a flop...so i say give it a shot
the roid era messed with peoples minds over what is to be expected from mi's....wanna go back to the days when they were defensive specialists, who also got on base...but werent expected to hit for power