Sunday, November 27, 2011
Questions and Answers
I'm temporarily out of things to write about. The Hot Stove is burning so slowly, it's almost extinguished! You all seem to have a lot of pent up questions. Maybe it's time for another Question and Answer post. Go ahead and ask anything baseball related and I'll try my best to answer. You all can chime in with your answers too. We can make it a conversation.
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What's the deal with Jorge Bucardo after not pitching at all this season?
ReplyDeleteI assume he had TJ surgery. He's rule 5 eligible. I doubt anyone will take him in Rule 5. If they do and can keep him on their active roster all season, more power to them. The Giants have tended to put their post-TJ prospects in the bullpen and initially place them at a low level to start out. My best guess is Jorge starts the season in extended spring training then surfaces in either the Arizona League or Salem-Keizer.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that the track record of post-TJ pitching prospects, at least in the Giants organization, is not all that great. I don't know if it's because they lose so much development time or if the quality of the surgery/rehab is not as good for minor leaguers.
At this point, anything they get out of Jorge Bucardo will be extra, IMO.
now that craw is officially off the market, and pat is about to retire...which giant becomes the guy that the gals drool over?
ReplyDeleteBacci,
ReplyDeleteUh, I'm sure there are much better judges of that than I. When it comes to MLB players, I'm not sure being "off the market" makes the gals stop drooling, and that's sometimes a problem.
If even half the rumors out there about Pat Burrell are true, he's kind of like a male version of a hot mess. Not sure he's anything to "drool over".
We are entering the dead zone week until the winter meetings Dec 5-8 in Dallas. Dec 8th is the Rule 5 Draft. Dec 12th is the big date - Deadline for teams to offer 2012 contracts to unsigned arb-eligible players that are still under team control.
ReplyDeleteI doubt there are any Rule 5 guys the Giants are looking to acquire, but can you think of any? Who are the most likely guys we might lose?
On the unsigned arb-eligible player front, who is staying, who is going?
On the Rule 5 I would guess Quinowski is the most likely to get drafted, and I could see the Padres, Astros or Rockies taking a chance on one of our semi-high profile guys who haven't performed: utility guys Brock Bond and Nick Noonan, Wendell Fairley and Jackson Williams as former 1st rounders, and Johnny Monell as a long shot. The Padres have an insane amount of room on their 40 (and are trying to trade Hudson/Bartlett), the Astros are fielding a AAA club (why did we have to crash against them?) and the Rockies are always looking to poach a little here and there.
Whiteside is the only guy I think is definitely gone, I bet Burriss is on the bubble, and Keppinger was on the bubble until these 2 year deals started hitting the wire for middle infielders.
I'm not sure who is Rule 5 eligible from other teams. I would say the Giants are probably not in the market for a Rule 5 draftee in the Major League phase unless there's a guy who can play SS that slips through out there somehow and I think they would still go with Crawford if a Rule 5 guy was the alternative.
ReplyDeleteI would not be at all surprised to see a couple of pitchers picked up in the minor league phase.
Left handed hitting catchers always have value. I could see somebody taking a Rule 5 flyer on Monell and Rule 5 is a good way of bolstering the back end of a bullpen, especially with left specialists as the Giants found out with Paterson last year.
I don't see Bond, Noonan, Fairley or Williams getting taken and sticking, but I've been wrong before.
I found one reference in Optioned to Fresno that Bucardo's injury was a shoulder issue of some sort. Given that he missed the entire 2011 season, I would say that is as worse prognosis than if he had TJ.
ReplyDeleteI can see Bond or Noonan sticking before Fairley or Williams, I threw those guys up to mark the fact the Gints have unofficially given up on their former #1s, even if they were supplemental.
ReplyDeleteThat leads to a question, how many years do you think is a reasonable "cycle" on a draft? I put this up last post, but we had the 2006 draft discussed - Pill and Burriss as long in the tooth hangers-on, Rohlinger Bocock and Downs all gone (and those guys the reason I think Bond/Noonan have a shot at Rule 5 draft). The 2007 draft is basically going away right now (Otero picked 21st that year, as well as Culberson as a Comp A, Runzler in the 9th, Edlefson in the 16th, all possibly still useful behind Bumgarner) Is it fair to say a 5 year cycle is a good rule and then chances get very long to break into the show?
DrB,
ReplyDeleteBeing that you work with Ricky's mother, was she excited for her son to be a Giant or was there another team she preferred? Any idea where he will start in 2012? Augusta? Arizona? San Jose?
DR B., can you better explain the minor league rule V draft? What are the rules and who can be selected?
ReplyDeleteI understand with the Major League Rule V draft that the player needs to spend the whole year on the active 25 man roster, but how does that work out for the minor league version?
C in Redlands
Shankbone,
ReplyDeleteIf a prospect hasn't made it to the show in 5 years, it's starting to get to be a longshot, especially with college draftees. With HS draftees, you can give them a bit more time. It's not unheard of for prospects to debut at age 26 or 27. Usually those guys turn into role players at best though. The stars usually are debuting by age 22 and regular players by age 24 or 25.
Roger,
ReplyDeleteI don't think Ricky's mom had a preference. Ricky is on record in interviews that he grew up rooting for the Yankees. I think Ricky and his mom were naturally hoping he would get taken a little earlier in the draft. I think they might have been given a heads up that the Giants were interested in Round 2, but then Susac fell to that slot.
They seem quite enthusiastic now. Mom seems impressed at how well the organization has treated Ricky. She has mentioned Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey specifically as players who have been friendly and welcoming to him. He seems to have made friends with Susac and Mitchell Beacom, to other draftees from the Pac 10 or 12 or whatever it is now.
I've noticed a growing number of Giants oriented decorations at her desk too.
So, yeah, I think Ricky and his family are all good with where he has ended up on pro ball so far.
C in Redlands,
ReplyDeleteI don't know that much about the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. I believe there is an expanded pool of players that are allowed to be protected beyond the 40 man MLB roster and players with the requisite number of years experience who are not protected in this expanded pool can be drafted in the Minor League Phase of the Rule 5 Draft and placed on a minor league roster. They do not have to stick at any given level like in the Major League Phase.
I could be wrong about all thatl, but that's how I think it works. Anybody else able to shed light on it?
Addendum on Ricky Oropesa:
ReplyDeleteRicky has said in interviews after the draft that he is definitely a Giants fan now. He seems to be particularly intrigued by the RF wall and McCovey Cove! LOL!
Drb, which Brandon is a better bet to succeed in the show in 2012: Belt, Crawford or neither one? I have concerns for both of them, but was encouraged that both played well in winter ball. Thanks. Do you think that anyone else from the minor league system has a chance to contribute in the show in 2012? Hembree maybe?
ReplyDeleteLG
LG,
ReplyDeleteI'd rate Belt and Crawford's chances of "succeeding" at the MLB level in 2012 as about equal right now. They are both very real possibilities to land starting jobs out of Spring Training but both could get aced out and sent to AAA for more seasoning by FA signings that are yet to come.
It also depends somewhat on the definition if "succeed." I think Crawford is capable of giving plus defense at shortstop with a modest improvement at the plate. My own median projection for him offensively assuming a full season of play would be a BA of about .235 with 8 HR's and 10 SB's.
I think Huff is going to get a chance to rebound from last year's debacle, so Belt's best chance for a starting job is LF. I think he can play competent defense out there. My median projection for him would be a BA of about .240 with 25 HR's.
I think there are actually several prospects who could contribute in 2012 Including Francisco Peguero, Roger Kieschnick, Charlie Culberson, Dan Otero and Tyler Graham with Hembree, Gary Brown and Chris Dominguez having outside shots at a callup later in the season. Keep an eye on Adrianza and Joe Panik if the Giants SS situation does not stabilize.
More of a discussion than a question, but there are some good points to the new CBA - teams can't game the system with mid season trades for Type B's, relievers don't have the same crazy value, its less advantageous to hoard draft picks the way Tor, Bos and TB did last year. This benefits the Giants, as Sabey Sabes doesn't have much interest in this type of strategy anyways. Although I think he is paying a whole lot more attention to draft picks now (as its working well) and don't think he'd punt picks like he did in the past, its nice to know its harder to lose those picks.
ReplyDeleteShankbone,
ReplyDeleteI completely agree with that assessment.
Follow up to LG,
ReplyDeleteDon't forget about Hector Correa who was added to the 40 man roster. We could see him coming out of the bullpen at some point in 2012.
Saw video of Correa and Valentin-Diaz. Correa is going to be a big boy. I really really like the reports on Valentin. Seems like a hustle first gap power switch hitter with good bloodlines and slick hands.
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting article on a few players, highlighting Correa and Valentin.
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6343
Way too early but I think Correa will be long gone by the 20th pick.
Along the same lines, I was looking at the MLB Draft Guide rankings of 3B draft prospects. Now, I was pretty impressed by what I saw of Ron Miller from Serra HS, but he's only ranked at #27, so I would deduce that either I have no idea what I'm looking at or this is also a very deep draft for 3B prospects.
ReplyDeleteflying squirrels gm named minor league exec of the year
ReplyDeletemoving to richmond was the best decision giants have made over the past 5 years
my apologies to the norwich guys...but its a fact
Bacci - Parney looks like quite the character. Might have to get a flying squirrels hat - there are plenty of choices. Good marketing.
ReplyDeleteDrB - I think SS has got to be the thinnest position in the majors right now and in the forseeable future. If one of these guys falls that looks like a good move. The 3B does look deep, I saw that Miller video, nice compact swing.
Victor Roache looks like he has huge power and contact issues - saw a video and he looked pretty limber for a power guy. He led the nation in HRs with the new bats. Minorleaguerundown has him ranked 19th. I bet he's another one who goes higher.
Just wanted to put my 2 cents on Belt and Crawford. I see Belt as a legitimate starting position player, capable of a line of .280/.360/.450. The Giants so wildly misused him last year, he really didn't have a chance. Belt is the real deal if the Giants just let him be. (I don't care if starts in Fresno or SF. Just give him 500 ABs and don't yank him back an forth.)
ReplyDeleteCrawford I'm only hopeful of. I honestly can't tell how far the bat will come. Yes, he could be the .235 hitter or I can see him wash out. We all acknowledge his fielding prowess. But, I think people like him a bit more than his talents merit because he's smooth, good-looking guy. Yep, I'm calling a Giant fan-base man-crush on Crawford.
Where do you think Ben Thomas has the best chance of landing this spring?
ReplyDeletePick one of these two scenarios:
ReplyDelete1. In the next decade the Giants will win 1 WS but the Dodgers win 3 WS.
2. In the next decade the Giants will win 0 WS but win the division 8 times and the Dodgers will win the 0 WS and finish in last place 8 times.
Kelly,
ReplyDeleteI vehemently reject the notion that Belt was "misused" or "mishandled". That is just a lazy regurgitation of what has become the CW of the internets.
1. I do not believe that playing Belt every day all season at first base would have made the difference between winning and losing the division.
2. I saw a tremendous amount of growth in Belt over the course of the season as a ballplayer. I think each time he was sent down he was given specific things to work on and he was improved each time he camp back up. Then there was the hand injury for which nobody is to blame.
In short, I don't think he was mishandled at all!
Where do you get the line of .280/.360/.450? Even Bill James, who is known to be sometimes irrationally exuberant about certain players only has him with a BA of .275. I can almost guarantee you ZIPS will be lower. I do think you can extrapolate about 25 HR's if he is allowed to play a full season, but he hit HR's at that rate when he was hitting about .230.
I like Belt a lot too. I would be very satisfied to see him starting at either first base or LF next year. I think he has unreal power potential and will eventually hit for a good average with excellent plate discipline. Let's be realistic here though. The kid still likely has some struggles ahead of him. He's been made a martyr by internet analysts to the point where expectations have become unrealistic as well as fantasies about what he might have done last year as full time player.
As for Crawford, his defense at SS was a breath of fresh air and the dropoff when Cabrera came aboard was so dramatic I think a lot of fans are willing to accept whatever Crawford might give on offense in return for not having to suffer through another Tejada or Cabrera type stopgap. He also showed an advanced approach at the plate that suggested potential for improvement in his offensive numbers. It's a bit of a mystery to me that Belt and Crawford could struggle in such similar ways, yet a lot of fans are painting Belt as a certain star if only the Giants would stop "mishandling" him, yet they dismiss a .235 BA for Crawford as wildly enthusiastic due to a "mancrush" even though two separate projection systems have him at a .235 BA for next season.
Ben Thomas? I'll say he most likely plays next year in Augusta while Ricky Oropesa starts out in San Jose.
ReplyDeleteRoger,
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone can predict WS wins. Who would have ever thought that those 1960's Giants teams would come up empty while a team like the 2010 team would go all the way.
I'll just say that I believe the Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball and leave it at that.
I was trying to see people's opinions on whether they would be happy with division titles instead of World Series victories if it meant the Dodgers would win more. I take alot of pleasure in seeing the Dodgers lose but the question is whether I would be okay with the sacrifice our success. It was a hypothetical question for debate. So serious.
ReplyDeleteRoger - McCourt did at least some damage to the Dodgers famous minor league system. I don't know a lot of specifics but I have read the cost cutting extended to the minor leagues and they lost some people. Hell, they lost Barr to us, one of the more satisfying pickups for the good guys in years.
ReplyDeleteAlso, McCourt can't help himself, he's got new lawsuits with Fox and is trying to hold onto his parking lots. If this can extend another year that would be just fine. I can't see any clean easy resolution with potential buyers. Nobody in their right mind would let him hold onto a single spec of ownership.
do i have a man crush on craw? hell frickin yes
ReplyDeletethe idea that a kid grows up as a giants fan and gets a call up from a ball to play in the bigs, plays stellar d and in his first game hits a slam...that is the beauty of the game...and if im in marketing for the giants...im drooling at the prospect of craw being with the club...that kids face will sell tickets
if craw hits 235...i will be ecstatic....his d keeps men off base
nate in rf and craw at ss...nobody gets beyond 2nd
urban is reporting that giants want to sign vsong to a two year...no specifics on numbers yet
DrB, its not a big point, but I do have to disagree a little on Belt. I agree with you he was lost at the plate at the beginning of the season, and obviously the broken wrist was bad luck. But Bochy after singing his praises pretty hard went completely the other way, jerking him in and out of the lineup. The end of July where he wins the Dodger game, goes 0-4 with 2ks against Kershaw and then gets benched really sticks out. Couple that with all the raving about Pill and its just a weird way to treat the best non-Posey prospect we've had through the draft. There's nothing we can do about it now, but I really hope they have a clear defined plan next year.
ReplyDeleteCrawford just can't win with internet Gints fans. He had a really nice September once he got called back and Cabrera finally took a back seat. After suffering through Tejada I was so psyched to have some range the glove he flashed was straight up magic. I still maintain if Sabean stops at Beltran the Gints make the post season. Don't believe me? Go back to the Atlanta away series. It won't show on a stat line because of stupid home town scoring, but Cabrera destroyed us the whole damn series including the Wilson blow up and the one we actually came back to win. There is something weird in the air about Crawford. You substitute Omar Visquel, a very famous all glove not much bat and everybody would be ecstatic. For the tenth time, he doesn't have to be Cal Ripken!
Also, I agree with you about Belt and the potential for struggles. He was looking at balls down the middle and swinging at the back foot pitch curve from righties that Nate the Great has so much trouble with from time to time. He gets hold of the ball though... Mano. I'm gonna go look at that splash hit again on the Giants site.
I have heard many times that the Giants may own the stadium outright in the near future. But, I have not heard any details on when this will be or the affect it will have on spending. The new CBA talks of less profit sharing with the top 10 payroll teams which would probably include the Giants. Does this mean the payroll will go down? I don't think we need to necessarily keep increasing the payroll but we do need to be aggressive when we have a particular need. If we aren't going to get that 20-25 million a year free agent, maybe we need to be more aggressive in the International market and try to find quality at a discount. I like the potential in 6 figure prospects like Mejia. Maybe we need to find a handful of them each year instead of overpaying for prospects like Cespedes. I think the model of scouting and drafting is here to stay. The Rays are the perfect example. They lost 6-7 quality players last year and not only were they still competitive but they gained lots of compensation picks. The only bad part of this example is how terrible they were since the franchise started.
ReplyDeleteDr. B, I stand by what I said. Belt was mishandled. I don't need the lunatic fringe to tell me that.
ReplyDeleteBelt was given about 2 weeks of time as a starter at the beginning of 2011 before the plug was pulled. Are you kidding? 2 weeks? Why did the Giants bother? That is not enough time. If the Giants had reservations about Belt, he never should have been placed on the squad. So either the Giants made a big assessment mistake out of Spring Training, or they really felt that Belt needed to come out the gate hitting .300 within the first couple of weeks.
We've been talking about AJ's temperament in this thread. What about Belt's? He's an emotional kid. He broke down and cried when Bochy told him he made the squad. Then, a couple of weeks later, oh sorry. Not good enough. That, to me, is a mishandle.
I'm sure Belt worked on things when he went down. He was improved, especially in September. But, I didn't have a problem with his ABs in April. I DID have a problem with all of the internet tripe about him being too "timid" at the plate. As if working a walk is bad thing. Belt KNOWS he's not a table-setter. He's not trying to walk. He's trying to drive the ball. He's trying to bring the pitchers into the zone. Nobody, but nobody talks about Pat Burrell being timid. Let the kid be selective.
.280/.360/.450 is just me talking. I believe he'll hit for more average and less homers than you do. I believe more like 20 HRs a year and 40 doubles. What I've seen tells me he can hit for average.
I'm not making him a martyr. And I don't believe I have wild expectations for him. I am saying, give him some consistency and a role and let him work through his problems. I have no problem with him doing that at the major league level. And the Giants need to be able to suck it up at the end if April 2012 if Belt is hitting .200, and say, "He's our guy." (See Pedroia, Dustin, Boston Circa May 1st 2007: BA .172)
I'm not discounting Crawford. I'm not nearly as certain of his offensive abilities (vs. Belt's) after watching him in 2011. We are definitely seeing the same thing with regard to Crawford following the acts of Tejeda followed by Cabrera. Real disappointment. We, as fans, are enthusiastic about him. He's a guy is fun to watch in the field. He's home-grown. He hustles. He has a pretty damn good personality and is very comfortable with the press. As has been noted here, the female fan base seems much pleased with him. Doc, I'm not saying you're not looking at numbers and solid projections. I am saying that we want him to succeed. And that blurs our vision a bit.
And I'm with you. I have no problem making Belt the starting LF and Crawford the starting SS in 2012. And ride that, at the very minimum, to the All-Star break. Come hell or high water.
But given that they are the starters in 2012, I worry more about Belt being yanked around than Crawford. Not just because of temperament, but also because of those differing expectations. It will be much easier to replace our LF in May than our shortstop. Crawford will come with few expectations from his bat. The Giants could mentally just drop him into the 8 slot and try to forget about him while talking about the importance of good D up the middle for our pitchers. Belt, however, will absolutely come with expectations, and with them more urgency to pull the plug if he's not meeting them. Especially if the other Giants bats are struggling...looking at you Aubrey.
I don't have any "fantasies" about Belt and what might have been last year. I'm talking about the Giants looking like they have some semblance of a plan for their prospects and not like a Fantasy team owner reacting to a bad week from one of their players.
The Giants have had a lot of success with rushing their top prospects. From Matt Cain to Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, none of them stayed at any one place very long on the way up. I think that, plus the injury to Ross made them a bit irrationally exuberant about rushing Belt up. Sabes is famous for saying he's trying to "catch lightning in a bottle." I think deep down they knew Belt had come too far too fast, but they got caught up in their string of successes and Ross' calf tweak gave them all the opening they needed.
ReplyDeleteBelieve me, I completely understand the concept of sample size, but there is also a thing called scouting. You don't need a sample size of 300 or 500 AB's to see that a kid is completely lost at the plate and is not going to get it back without going down, pulling himself together and working on the things that made him lost. The Giants were right to send Belt down before his confidence was completely and irreparably shattered. And yes, he was absolutely timid at the plate. He was letting all kinds of pitches go down the middle for called strikes and ending up having to flail at pitches in the dirt because he had two strikes on him. He needed to work on being more aggressive up there early in the count. That doesn't mean you swing at slop up there but it does mean that when you get a pitch to hit, you crush it even if its the first one you see.
Baseball is full of players who went up and down several times early in their careers. Belt is a better player now than he was at the beginning of 2011. If you think he could have been even better than he is had not been "mishandled", that's fine, but it's pure speculation. I don't believe their is any evidence to support the notion that Belt was harmed by his experiences last year. That he improved over the course of the year tends to contradict that idea.
Roger,
ReplyDeleteI believe the Giants "mortgage" on AT&T Park will be paid off in 2019. I believe the payments are about $20 M/year. I don't know how much they bring in from events at the Park, but some of that is probably defrayed by non-baseball events such as concerts and football games.
Yes, 2019 and $20M per year, which they would be free to spend in 2020.
ReplyDeleteI watched almost all of Belt's ABs in April, and I for sure did not have the same take that you, Shankbone or the Giants brass had on Belt.
ReplyDeleteOf course he was having problems. He was not driving the ball, for sure. But I didn't feel that he was letting fat pitches go by. I felt he was learning. I was not under the impression that he was overmatched.
I'm going to go back and take a look at some of his April ABs and see. Maybe I was missing something.
But, if you're right, and he was outgunned, then the Giants made a mistake. Even Timmy spent a couple of days in Fresno.
Oh, right, my bad. Belt made it to Fresno in 2010.
ReplyDeleteI think Brian Sabean has pretty much admitted it was a mistake to rush Belt up. Yeah, good GM's sometimes make mistakes. I think we've commented that Sabean has a strong tendency to keep going back to things that work until they don't work. He's made his mea culpa on rushing Belt and I would expect him to be much more cautious, right or wrong, with Brown and Panik.
ReplyDeleteI would note that Sabean did not rule out bringing Belt or Crawford back in 2012. He hinted that the AFL and winter ball would help decide that. Crawford and Belt both did well respectively so I think we might see both of them back.
Sabean seemed to specifically single out AA Richmond as an experience that hitting prospects need to have to toughen them up which is something I've said for a long time.
To say the Giants brought Belt up prematurely is not the same as saying he was "wildly mishandled" though. That is a misrepresentation of the whole situation and unfair to both the Giants and to Belt.
ReplyDeleteBTW, BA has Arizona's Top 10 Prospect list up. Man, that top 4 of Bauer, Bradley, Skaggs and Parker is just sick! I was a bit relieved to be less impressed with #5-10.
ReplyDeleteKelly -
ReplyDeleteI had the same exact argument as you. I went back and forth with OGC on his site about Belt, and after more consideration I had to change my tune slightly. I think its fair to be frustrated about how it turned out, but its also good to look closely at each situation during the year.
The Gints got greedy. You look at the quotes and Bochy is salivating over having another hitter coming out of spring training. Belt quickly fell prey to merciless major league pitching, specifically curveballs. His game won't play well as a rook either - he has a great eye but he's just not going to get the borderline calls from the umps. So he got screwed up, and let pitches to hit go by and flailed at 2 strike curves. Not only did he need to go down, the Giants needed to get Huff back to 1B desperately.
Then he had the HBP/break. That was unfortunate. Where I do agree he was jerked around was later on - he gets called back July 19th on that third tour of duty. Wins the game by himself, goes 0 for 4 with 2 K against Kershaw and then is benched. From that point I can see both sides of the argument - he had a very bad K rate, and wasn't aggressive enough. But he also had some big hits and needed to get exposure at some point. Mainly once they were almost out of it I think he should have received more starts. But he did K 19 times in August/Sept in 52/59 ABs. The flip side is his lefty splits were 348/412/934 in 52 ABs.
Bochy raving about Brett Pill was bizarre to me. It was a very pointed dig at Belt to be more aggressive. Belt did respond at Coors field and that splash hit, so it was good to end on a positive note.
The other part of Belt is he's closely tied to Huff's (lack of) performance. It's easy for fans to say bench Huff, but the Giants don't really work that way, and they were trying everything to get him going. Now its come out at the end of the year they thought he was out of shape all year, and Krukow says he lost the clubhouse with a pretty casual attitude towards losing. But during the year they're going to give a proven vet every chance, especially with the money involved. Its pretty ironic that Huff was the only non injured Giant the whole year, but that's baseball.
Sorry, that was 19 times EACH month for Belt, for a pretty insane K% rate. But still, Bochy refused to play him against lefties, and that drove me a little nuts.
ReplyDeleteI think Sabean is talking about both Brandons when he's talking about rushing prospects too much. They threw Crawford into Double-A Richmond way too fast. Before we get too excited about Gary Brown he needs to prove out there. It will be interesting to see what they do with Panik if he tears up SJ. I bet they would love to pair Brown and Panik on the same track if they can. But Richmond is a serious proving ground.
I do think we can be confident in Belt's ability to hit and adjust to MLB pitching though. I think he is far superior to the kind of players the Gints were cranking out before: Linden, Minor Neikro, Bowker, etc. There's always been some back and forth about "Play the kids" and the prime examples of the past few years are Fred Lewis, Kevin Frandsen and John Bowker. The Giants evaluation of those players has proved to be completely correct. Brett Pill looks to me like a classic John Bowker - good power, initial success but ultimately not going to cut it in the majors. I'm rooting for him, but I just don't see it happening with the complete inability to walk and the big drop off after some initial success. Then again, he had some nice clutch hits during that hot streak where we walloped the Rockies. One of the Giants plans maybe to move Huff to left and platoon Belt and Pill to see who proves out. Its a little mini John Bowker/Nate Schierholtz game.
For me a pretty big question is what becomes of Andres Torres? Any insight into ADHD issues and medication? Torres is 33, and has those classic sprinter injuries - hammy pulls - from time to time. Everybody looks at 2010 and wants it back. Was that the career year and time to move on or does Andres Giant have something left in the tank? (He is one of my favorite players, I love the underdogs, but I am trying to view this with both eyes open) If the Giants do cut him loose it may have a lot more to do with age/med issues and less with an inability to properly evaluate his WAR numbers. But that's what you will hear from interwebz fans.
ReplyDeleteIf the Posey injury was ground zero, the crazy numbers of injuries was the main story, the 2nd biggest reason for failure in 2011 was Torres/Huff regressing. (my third reason was them signing Miguel Tejada and letting that ride and I'm sticking to it but I will admit thats tied up in the injuries). Torres looked terrible for most the year, curve balls and high fast balls completely perplexed him and he had some serious baserunning gaffes as well. So what are the predictions on him? DFA'd? Lowballed? Arbed?
Dr. B,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about Brian Wilson? He is the one Giant I am just unsure about. I love his demeanor and I believe when healthy, he can be a top 5 closer. But he is the most popular closer on the planet right now, and that will come with a steep price later on.
It is hard to see the Giants paying 4 for $40 million for him, when they have Romo, Casilla, and Hembree all as closing options for the future. However, I think we all know how frustrating the Giants were in the years from Nenn to Wilson. No need to remind anyone about Benitez.
At this point it would be hard to trade Wilson. The Giants are contenders and Wilson is a face/beard of the franchise. But if the right deal comes along, do you pull the trigger? My instinct says no...
And very predictably the Giants have extended Bochy/Sabean through 2013 with team options for 2014. I imagine this will be greeted with a lot of hand wringing across the blogosphere.
ReplyDeleteJake - I'd say Wilson doesn't have much trade value due to his high salary and unique value to the Giants. If they could have Timmy/Cain contracts in hand, I think extending him within reason would be an OK move, if he proved healthy this coming year. I agree, its a fine line between those ad hoc closing years, and health risks. Robb Nen is the posterboy for the whole entire argument!
Torres? It sure sounds like he is a non-factor in the Giants plans. I highly doubt he will be tendered a contract at the arbitration deadline.
ReplyDeleteWilson? He's been a good, reliable closer for the Giants, even dominating at times. He certainly stabilized the position after the post-Nen disaster. I have to say I'm getting tired of his act and constant attention seeking. I'm also leery of his long term health. I would be very reluctant to sign him to a long term contract. I'd trade him if the right deal came along, but he's probably going to have to prove he's health first in which case, the Giants probably won't trade him.
I'm glad to see Sabes and Bochy got extensions. Well deserved IMO.
DrB,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you about Wilson. He has been dominant although he makes you pull out hair on a consistent basis. I believe he has the most saves in the last 4 years for the NL and possibly the AL. His trade value is very low because of his lingering health issues. If he comes back strong I think it will not be long before it goes back up. He is still young and is always working on getting an edge. He tried a new pitch this year and at times it was unhittable. I wouldn't mind trading him if the offer was right because he is starting to make a lot of money. As far as an extension goes, I would try to keep it to 2 years if we can. Hembree is probably going to move through the system quick and he will be a much cheaper option for years to come.
I am not really a GM or Manager hater although they do have a lot to do with our success. You have to agree Bochy made some horrible mistakes as well as Sabean's awful signings this year. All in all the franchise is going in the right direction in spite if last year and they should get another chance. I believe players play at their best when the management is stable and when the drama is not in the media. I don't know if I would have put an option for 2014 but it is a team option and they do not have to exercise it if they don't want to.
Here is my view of the Brandon Belt 2011 experience. I have found some people's views skewed by his hype, frankly.
ReplyDeleteFirst off, the Giants never said he was ready by placing him on the 25 man roster. He only made the roster because Ross was injured. I find many think that just because the Giants put him on the 25-man meant that he was ready. That, to me, was a mistake.
Another mistake is that many thought that he was ready, period. One really cannot tell if a hitter is ready for the majors or not until he is in the majors facing major league pitching. I get really sick and tired of people pointing at his projections, as if that is proof that he's good. There were a lot of projections that said that Andy Marte would be a great hitter. Sean Burroughs too. Delmon Young. Heck, Matt Weiters was considered a purer power hitter than Posey and Posey the better defensive player, yet in the majors, they have reversed roles, Weiters is the defensive god and Posey the great hitter.
I thought the Giants management move to do this made a lot of sense. The Giants had a free tryout with Belt with the Ross injury, and if he sucks, then Ross would be back soon and the Giants will learn what he needs to iron out of his swing, but if he forces the issue, then that's a great problem to have.
ReplyDeleteHowever, after initially doing well, first four games, he then hit .205/.279/.231/.510, which is bad, and most of it was not bad BIP luck, as his BABIP was .276. He had 10 K's in only 39AB, albeit 4 walks, which is good, plus only 1 extrabase hit (double) out of 8 hits. I can't speak to how he looked then swinging, but the numbers seem pretty clear: he was swinging and missing a lot, but had a good enough eye to draw walks, however, more importantly, when he was making contact, he was making very weak contact, only one extra-base hit out of 8 hits. Small, couple of week sample, but still bad overall, but with silver linings that bode well for the future, with further development.
At that point, I think the complainers were mainly those who thought he was a sure thing starter, and perhaps even used Posey as an example of how a hitter can figure things out and improve. The difference was that even when Posey as at his worse in June 2010, his strikeout rate was still good, it was just a bad BABIP killing his stats. Some might also point out Pedroia as well. But even at his worse, his strikeout rate was great, less than 10%, and he was walking way more than he was striking out. It was only a matter of time until his BABIP regressed and his batting line would look great. Belt, however, had a relatively normal BABIP and a bad strikeout rate, plus was not hitting for any power during that stretch and so he had a really bad batting line, he needed to go down and fix his batting mechanics.
Which he did to the Giants satisfaction, at which time they brought him up again, but then he got injured almost immediately. Unless you are blaming the Giants for the injury, they were not responsible for any up and down there.
In his next call-up, after the injury, I'll bet it was that homer in his first game that got the fans all up on arms. But he then struck out twice in the next game, which fans would say is a small sample, etc.
It is at this point that I would point out to the fans who thought the Giants were mismanaging Belt who it was that changed his batting stance, then promoted him from A-ball to AAA in one season, Yes, it is the same Giants management who you accuse of mismanaging Belt. Maybe they have a bit of knowledge about how good he really is but just want to get him to the point where he's great all the time and not just one a week or so?
Now the fans will say that he didn't get a chance and that is why after that point, he only hit .176/.263/.235/.498 with a .250 BABIP, 5 K in 17 AB, 2 BB, which is amazingly like what he did up above. At which point they sent him back down again.
He got brought up again in a couple of weeks, mid-August and got starts for a long period, He started 14 out of 16 games, hitting close to what he did before, only he figured out how to start hitting for some power: .220/.291/.440/.731, .276 BABIP, 18 K in 50 AB, 4 BB, with 4 XBH in 11 hits. They then rested him for 3 games, most probably to tweak something else they noticed, allowing him to work it out in the batting cages instead of live games. He got two starts, then another 3 games break.
Then he pretty much started the rest of the season, 14 starts out of 17 (excluding the last game when Burrell got his swan song start), improving a little bit more, hitting .255/.309/.540/.858, with .273 BABIP, 14 K in 51 AB, 4 BB, but 7 XBH in 13 hits.
So I don't see how the Giants mismanaged Belt's promotions. To me, they all looked like a good spot to put a struggling young player down, take some pressure off, give him some more lessons, then try again.
ReplyDeletePeople forget how it is when you are struggling under great pressure, how sometimes no matter how good you are, you spiral downward, you start trying things, changing things, when everything is fine if you would just stick it out.
And the reports at the end of the season confirmed this. It noted that he was trying too hard, he was letting his failures with the bat affect the rest of his at-bats that game. It was noted, in contrast, that Crawford was the same, no matter how he was doing with the bat.
Like DrB, I'm comfortable with Belt in LF, though I myself wouldn't mind getting Beltran signed to play LF in 2012 and beyond for us. I think Belt is getting close to being ready, but I don't think it would hurt to keep him in AAA to iron out his batting - he's still striking out way too much.
OGC - well that's an ironed out argument along the lines of what we discussed, and I agree with most of it now. Not sure you are lumping me in with the complainers, I never assumed he was a full time starter but I did want him to have more at-bats. I do think the Giants could have handled the expectations much better. "Belt is coming up for a cup of coffee while Ross is hurt, and then he is going back down". That's all that was needed. Instead you have quotes from Bochy almost calling him the next Posey.
ReplyDeleteIf Huff didn't have his disaster of a year I don't think there would be this issue. And I'd just note his third tour 2nd game back with 2Ks was against Kershaw, who trashed the whole lineup. Ultimately what makes me change my mind is his K% rate, which was just plain bad. It most likely was that cascading effect you described. In any event, I think he is the real deal, and I don't think the Giants damaged him permanently by throwing him into the chaos of last season.
The re-upping of Sabean and Bochy brings this argument to the head of the line: Sabean doesn't know how to build an offense. The statistic most sited is the offensive rank of our Gigantes over the years. Various versions of league wide futility are used, I'll just throw up Runs Scored:
ReplyDelete2011: 29
2010: 17
2009: 26
2008: 29
2007: 29
2006: 24
2005: 29
2004: 7
2003: 15
2002: 11
I'm curious for some original thought on what the reasons are for this, and whether they are tied directly to Sabean and his player evaluations, and how relevant they are going forward.
bad news for bosox fans...great news for fox viewers
ReplyDeletevalentine is now manager of the bosox
Shankbone,
ReplyDelete2 things about Sabean and offense: 1. As I have pointed out several times, I think there is a great deal of circumstantial evidence that Brian Sabean has been ahead of the curve on defensive metrics for a long time. I believe he give defense a large consideration when evaluating a hitter's value and a lot of very good hitters don't get the call because he thinks they will squander the offense on bad defense. 2. Sabean's right hand man in scouting has always been Dick Tidrow. Simply put, I think Sabean believes in building a team with pitching as the core. Both he an Tidrow are much more comfortable evaluating pitchers.
The tide has shifted a lot with Barr as the scouting director, but not enough time has elapsed to see the fruits of that emphasis.
Bacci,
ReplyDeleteIf Francona lost the Boston clubhouse, I can't imagine that those same players are going to listen to the diarrhea that comes out of Bobby Valentine's mouth for longer than about 5 seconds. Geez, can you imagine having to listen to that guy in 3 dimensional reality every single day of your life for 7 months out of the year?
I've been watching some of Belt's April 2011 ABs. I've watched about 12 of them. (Tough to find 'em, within the games on MLB.com, and when I did, I charted pitch location and outcome, which took a little bit of time.)
ReplyDeleteI have to agree that his timing was off. He was not putting good wood to the ball. But, in the few ABs that I've looked at, his eye is outstanding. I watched all of his 4 ABs in that first game against Kershaw. Kershaw, of course, pitched an outstanding game (as he does every single f'n time with the Giants...w/out his ultra-superior starts against the Giants, he may not win the Cy...a debate for another place) but Belt was patient and hung tough. His last AB of that game was against Broxton, who was bringing a 95 mph FB and very tough slider. Belt struck out to end the game on a very good 9-pitch AB.
His ABs deteriorated a bit from there (the ones that I watched.) But that was from a timing standpoint, not his eye. I think he was making decent decisions when to swing.
FWIW, Valentine (who was doing color during the ESPN broadcast of opening day) stated that Sabean said that Belt was on the team to stay and play, or he wouldn't have made the team. Don't know if that is just Valentine being Valentine or if Sabean actually made that comment.
Of course it's not the Giants fault Belt gets injured when he's called up in late May. And, I'm not saying that Belt would have been any kind of savior had he started all year. I am saying that the pressures of anemic offense of the Giants played into how Belt was used. And I don't like. Nature of the business maybe. But again, the Giants are trying to develop an asset, and in my mind you have to have a little more of a longview when dealing with rookies.
I'm not saying to overly glad-hand 'em. Just stay the course a bit with your top prospects. Have a damn plan.
It's ironic, as noted above, that Huff was the only Giant who was healthy all year. That's the guy who could have/should have taken some inconsistency. I'm really hoping that reports of him being so out-of-shape, nonchalant and losing the clubhouse are exaggerated.
Unless Brian Wilson is able to throw the slider he used in 2010 (and stopped throwing in 2011, for whatever reason...I think he stopped because he feared injury from throwing it) he will never be the same pitcher.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, Bochy said today that he knew Belt was rushed and not ready but felt there was no other option when Ross went down. That may be revisionist history on his part, but it tends to support my thesis.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Belt showed the makings of a good approach at the plate but he took too many good pitches and swung at too many bad ones(mainly after he had two called strikes against him). I think he also was getting the rookie treatment from umps and the whole thing kind of snowballed on him.
DrB - You just fleshed out your reply about the offense on GN quite nicely.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that Bonds was signed in 1993 and the Giants still had 3 losing seasons in a row after that 103 Win heartbreak is something that is always swept under the rug.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside, my favorite Bonds team was the 2000 squad. I was at Game 3 at Shea, glad I didn't have tickets for Game 4.
I hope the slider isn't what caused Wilson's injury, because that pitch is very important to him. Personally, I think his two-seam fastball is what caused his injury.
ReplyDeleteWhen a pitcher throws a two-seamer/circle change, they pronate their arm, which is natural, and isn't linked to any arm injuries. When Wilson throws this pitch, he pronates his arm to an extreme degree that looks unnatural to me.
Over-pronating his arm possibly causing his side/oblique injury (I think that was his injury middle of the year). Being the competitor he is, I think he came back too soon, as it was apparent he was compensating his mechanics (not following through naturally) to pitch through some pain or injury. It was after this took place in the middle of the season, that he went down with the current elbow injury. Solution: scrap the two-seamer, throw the slider.
This is my best guess as to what caused his injury, but it could just be wishful thinking.
Kad, I hope you're right on this. I think the slider is a far more effective pitch for Wilson than the 2-seamer. At least the way he was able to throw the 2-seamer in 2011 vs. the he was able to throw the slider in 2010.
ReplyDeleteDoc, enjoyed discussing Belt with you. I agree with many of your points. And again, I don't think anything changes for the Giants last whether Belt spends all year at AAA or all year in the majors. Nor do I think that Belt will be a superstar. (Be happy to be wrong on that point.) I just feel that the Giants were too reactive, too ready to change direction on Belt. I think by doing that, Belt put more pressure on each AB, thinking that if it doesn't go well, he'll be benched or sent down. He's just waiting for the hammer to fall. I think, mostly we agree on what happened. And I agree that no real harm was done to Belt. (And if it was, he's too sensitive to be successful in MLB.)
ReplyDeleteI've got this unrealistic fantasy going on about the Giants OF in '12. I'd like to sign Beltran, and have LaRussa type situation, where 4 or 5 OF get substantial playing time. (Belt, Cabrera, Beltran, Schierholz, Torres(or Ross)).
I think Belt has the potential to be a very good player. The term "superstar" is used way too loosely by too many. But yeah, Belt is a terrific athlete. He gets unbelieveable leverage on his swings. The potential for power is almost breathtaking. It looks like with some experience a getting past the "rookie treatment" by umpires, he will have excellent plate discipline.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to him being a big part of an exciting Giants future for a long time.
This gets into the impressions again, which I just went over on Posey on the other thread.
ReplyDeleteBelt put more pressure on each AB and didn't do well, while Posey did not do well either yet did not put pressure on himself, he was able to avoid the strikeouts, while Pablo had the same pressures but just hit well from the get-go and never stopped hitting. How much is that the Giants fault and how much of that is the player's own internal guidance system?
Now if the pressure were onerous, then you can blame the Giants management's handling of Belt, but during the same season that Belt was brought down by the man with all that pressure, Crawford, who probably was under the same pressure (maybe even worse, because nobody thought that he was a hitter), was not bothered by the pressure (at least according to the accounts of Bochy) and did not make himself worse, swinging at stuff he should not be, unlike Belt, who was chasing pitches.
In fact, Crawford had the batting peripherals that one would have expected from Belt, good strikeout ratios, OK walk rate.
And as much as many a Giants fan thought that Belt was ready for the majors in 2011, I just didn't see how that could be, as he could not figure out how to avoid strikeouts at the AAA level, so how could he do that at the major league level? That would make his stats very dependent on the bounces of BABIP. And would require him to hit for power regularly to justify all those K's.
As I showed above, he was not able to do that consistently until late in the season, when everything started flying.
I agree with DrB that too much is made of superstars. We don't need superstars on offense to win with our pitching, all we really need are average offensive hitters, but with good hitters like Sandoval, Posey, and Belt in the middle of the lineup, that would allow us to keep non-offensive players like Crawford in the lineup.
And I was very impressed that Crawford was able to avoid strikeouts in the majors, so my hopes is that he'll be like Vizquel, not so good offensively at first but with experience, he'll be good enough which is super with the defense he provides.
Well, I'm not against superstars per se. I was a happy fan when Barry Bonds was a Giants. Ditto Willie Mays. What I was actually saying is that too many players who are merely very good get the superstar label when they aren't really superstars. I would say Albert Pujols is a superstar. I don't think any other players on the current FA market fit that bill.
ReplyDeleteHey, I just read that Sharlon Shoop is gone from the Giants organization!!!
ReplyDeleteSo now, Dr B which player would you nominate for the award of the “Best looking player in a baseball uniform” ?
GIP
GIP,
ReplyDeleteHa! I will have to think about that one. I'm thinking I had someone else contending for that role recently, but I'm drawing a blank on it right now. I might have to wait until I can attend some SJ games this year.
I will say that Ryan Vogelsong wears the flannel mighty fine though.
DrB,
ReplyDeleteYour blog is great! I check every morning for a fresh post. Your information and your insights are appreciated.
Now, I am going to take exception to your view on Belt thing. Any analysis of his numbers and/or performance is of limited value without context. Bochy (Side note, I like Bochy. Glad he our manager, but he is VERY poor at handling young position player talent) made it abundantly clear to anyone who was paying attention that Belt was on a short leash. He is a small town kid who needed patience and encouragement.
It made no sense. Huff was absolutely stinking it up at the plate, and if Huff is not hitting he doesn't make up for it anywhere else, while Belt was constantly jerked around. Look what the Braves got from arguably a lesser player in Freeman by showing patience.
Check out Kieth Law's 'Top 50 Players 25 or Under' list. Pretty impressive, Giants have four of the top 23 - Posey, Bumgarner, Panda and Belt. Belt is listed ahead of Ramos, Freeman, Feliz, Smoak......
It's time for both Sabean and Bochy to pull their heads out on this one.
And please, no Gonzalez. Please! Been there, done that. It wasn't fun.
For those of you like me without Insider Access:
ReplyDeletehttp://slumz.boxden.com/f16/top-50-mlb-players-age-25-under-1661095
I just took a look at Law's list. Pretty awesome to have 4 Giants up so high. Only thing that bothers me is his comment on Pablo. I don't know about you guys, but I see Pablo as an MVP candidate in the coming years. Obviously he has variables, but I think he is going to work hard and put up insane numbers. Law says, "he can repeat his 2011 a few times over the next half-dozen years." I guess he'll just have to surprise some people.
Any team, especially a contending team, is going to give the veteran who made a huge contribution to a WS win and who they just re-signed for $22 M every chance to work his way out of a slump. Rookies? Not so much.
ReplyDeleteFreddy Freeman had several years of minor league experience under his belt so you're comparing apples and oranges here.l
If Bochy is so poor at managing young players then how did he end up with a homegrown core of Cain, Timmy, MadBum, Wilson Sandoval and Posey and throw in Nate who all broke in under him?
I think Belt is ultimately going to do just fine under Bochy too and will soon be added to that great young core. After that it will be Gary Brown and Joe Panik and if we're lucky maybe Chris Dominguez, Tommy Joseph or any number of others.
I'm very encouraged with what I'm reading about Sandoval's enthusiasm for off-season conditioning and his determination to make it a long term investment in is career. I agree, if he stays in great shape and now has his vision fixed, look out. We're definitely talking MVP potential here!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteBTW, thanks for reading. I'll try to keep 'em coming. This offseason has been awfully slow.
Hey Dr. B.
ReplyDeleteI was looking for a good place to add this question.
I'm wondering... maybe you don't have an answer... I'm wondering about the A's stadium in San Jose. I totally understand why the A's cant sue MLB and demand to be able to play in San Jose. But why can't San Jose sue MLB? Does that make sense as a question?