More Thoughts on the Postseason

A funny thing happened on the way to the World Series and subsequent MLB CBA negotiations.  The narrative was small market/low payroll teams can't compete with over-spending teams like the Dodgers, and not without evidence.  12 teams made the postseason.  Per USA Today 10/15/2026, 8 of those 12 teams are in the top 10 in payroll.  Except there are now three teams left in the postseason and the highest ranking team in payroll is the Milwaukee Brewers at #19.  The Tampa Bay Rays are #25 and the Cleveland Guardians are dead last at #30 with a payroll of less than $100 M.  The Chicago White Sox, a big market team with a low payroll, made the playoffs with a payroll under $100 M but were eliminated by the Guardians.  

The highest payroll team, the Mets with a payroll almost 5 times the Guardians, did not make the playoffs at all.  The Blue Jays at #5 did not get in.  The Giants, who a large segment of their fanbase thinks do not spend enough on players rank 12'th in spending and since 3 higher spending teams did not get in, the Giants certainly spend enough to be a wild card team.  Maybe that's a too-low aspiration but but they didn't even come close with the 4'th worst record in MLB.  

So, at least for this season, the script is flipped.  Yes, a high payroll increases a team's chances of making the postseason and since they can't win the World Series without being in the postseason it increases chances of winning it all.  But payroll is not the sole determinant of winning.  The Giants did not finish with the fourth worse record in MLB because of low payroll.  They earned that underperformance with bad baseball decisions and maybe a little bad luck thrown in.

The other postseason thought is where do the the Dodgers turn after their complete collapse against the Brewers, a team with less than half their payroll?  The Dodgers had the second highest payroll in MLB tied up in what appears to be a rapidly aging roster.  In that regard, their situation is not completely unlike the Giants.  Do they double down on spending and sign Tarik Skubal to a $500 M contract?  Do they stand pat and hope for a big breakout from their prized prospect, Josue De Paula and other young players from their perennially highly ranked farm system?  Some of that may depend on the outcome of the CBA negotiations in which the other owners adamantly want a hard payroll cap which now looks like it might not be necessary after all.