One of the oddest events of a season full of odd events was Patrick Bailey's trade to the Cleveland Guardians on May 9 for Matt Wilkinson LHP. It's still not clear why Buster Posey made that trade, but it came after an odd at bat in which a Giants pitcher threw something like 9 straight sliders and subsequent rumors of friction between the coaches and Bailey over calling pitches from the bench. Even odder was word after the trade that Giants pitchers were now allowed to call games themselves and performances noticeably improved. Whatever the case, the Giants catching depth chart went from having a clear #1 to catcher competition which was complicated by injuries to Daniel Susac and Jesus Rodriguez.
MLB:
Daniel Susac: DOB: 5/14/2001. B-R, T-R. 6' 5", 210 lbs. 3 Options, Arb Eligible 2029, Free Agent 3032.
2026(AAA): .464/.545/.821, 2B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 9.1 BB%, 6.1 K%, 33 PA.
2026(MLB): .243/.289/.375, 8 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 5.0 BB%, 22.3 K%, 161 PA.
Drew Cavanaugh: DOB: 1/27/2002. B-L, T-R. 6' 0", 219 lbs. 3 Options, Arb Eligible 2030, Free Agent 2033.
2026(AA): .279/.456/.515, 7 2B, 3 HR, 3 SB, 18.9 BB%, 23.3 K%, 90 PA.
2026(AAA): .311/.449/.550, 9 2B, 6 HR, 13.1 BB%, 24.8 K%, 137 PA.
2026(MLB): .229/.315/.292, 4 2B, 3B, HR, SB, 10.8 BB%, 30.1 K%, 166 PA.
Jesus Rodriguez: DOB: 4/23/2002, B-R, T-R. 5' 10", 201 lbs. 1 Option, Arb Eligible 2030, Free Agent 2033.
2026(AAA): .268/.347/.397, 10 2B, 5 HR, 7 SB, 10.7 BB%, 11.6 K%, 225 PA.
2026(MLB: .235/.316/.412, 3 2B, 2 HR, SB, 8.6 BB%, 13.8 K%, 58 PA.
Andrew Knizner and Zach Morgan are also currently on the 40-man MLB roster. Both will likely be dropped before the deadline to set the roster before the Rule 5 Draft. It appears Susac, Cavanaugh and Rodriguez will compete for 2 of 3 catcher spots on the 2027 Opening Day roster. They all have some positional flexibility so it would not be shocking to see all 3 make it. All things being equal, Cavanaugh will have the edge for playing time due to batting left handed.
AAA:
Adrian Sugastey: DOB: 10/23/2002. B-R, T-R. 6' 0", 213 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible.
2026(ACL): .355/.429/.484, HR, 8.6 BB%, 2.9 K%, 35 PA.
2026(AA): .275/.323/.392, 2 HR, 2 SB, 5.9 BB%, 11.9 K%, 135 PA.
2026(AAA): .289/.355/.422, 3 HR, 8.4 BB%, 9.5 K%, 95 PA.
Fernando Gonzalez: DOB: 12/2/2001. B-R, T-R. 5' 10", 205 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible Dec 2027.
2026(ACL): .364/.563/.818, HR, 25.0 BB%, 6.3 K%, 16 PA.
2026(A): .232/.357/.304, 2 HR, SB, 11.9 BB%, 8.3 K%, 168 PA.
2026(AAA): .280/.438/.480, HR, 17.6 BB%, 32.4 K%, 34 PA.
I could see a team looking for a back up catcher on the cheap grabbing Sugastey in the Rule 5 Draft. Giants don't have enough room on the 40-man roster to protect him. If he is not drafted, he should start the season in AAA and serve as depth for the MLB roster. Gonzalez is listed on the AAA roster but was a late organizational fill-in. He may start next season in A+.
AA:
Jancel Villaroel: DOB: 1/17/2005. B-R, T-R. 5' 8", 202 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible.
2026(A+): .305/.376/.480, 7 HR, 5.6 BB%, 18.2 K%, 198 PA.
2026(AA): .200/.281/.308, 2 HR, 3 SB, 8.7 BB%, 18.8 K%, 138 PA.
Onil Perez: DOB: 9/10/2002. B-R, T-R. 5' 11", 226 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible
2026(A+): .256/.315/.388, 3 HR, 3 SB, 7.0 BB%, 15.4 K%, 143 PA.
2026(AA): .207/.294/.276, 8.8 BB%, 14.7 K%, 34 PA.
Ty Hanchey: DOB: 12/19/1999. B-L, T-R. 5' 9", 195 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible.
2026(A+): .289/341/.526, 2 HR, 4.9 BB%, 31.7 K%, 41 PA.
2026(AA): .246/.335/.374, 4 HR, 10.5 BB%, 29.2 K%, 209 PA.
Villarroel was acquired from the Astros for Kai-Wei Teng in the offseason. He put up strong numbers in A+ before struggling at AA. Ty Hanchey was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2023. Held his own at AA and lefty batting catchers should get extra leash. Onil Perez seems to have hit his ceiling at AA.
A+:
Daniel Rogers: DOB: 12/7/2001. B-L, T-R. 6' 3", 225 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2028.
2026(A): .275/.393/.549, 4 HR, 13.1 BB%, 24.6 K%, 61 PA.
2026(A+): .233/.333/.345, 2 HR, 13.0 BB%, 33.33 K%, 138 PA.
Charlie Muniz: DOB: 10/25/2001. B-R, T-R. 6' 2", 220 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2029.
2026(Ind): .361/.470/.656, 27 HR, 14.7 BB%, 17.3 K%, 428 PA.
2026(A+): .067/.176/.267, HR, 11.8 BB%, 47.1 K%, 17 PA.
A couple of undrafted free agents from the college class of 2025 with intriguing bats.
A:
Rod Barajas Jr.: DOB: 7/12/2004. B-L, T-R. 6' 3", 225 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2028.
2026(A): .265/.346/.462, 13 HR, 9.4 BB%, 21.4 K%, 384 PA.
Scott Gell: DOB: 10/23/2004. B-R, T-R. 6' 1", 201 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2029.
2026(College): .303/.377/.447, 3 HR, 7.7 BB%, 10.9 K%, 156 PA.
2026(Smr): .242/.333/.288, 2B, 3B, 10.7 BB%, 38.7 K%, 75 PA.
2026(A): .000/.111/.000, 11.1 BB%, 22.2 K%, 9 PA.
Rod Barajas Jr. is probably the best catching prospect in the system. Big potential in the lefty bat. Gell was signed as an undrafted free agent after the draft.
ACL:
Santiago Camacho: DOB: 1/27/2007. B-S, T-R. 5' 10", 200 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2028.
2026(ACL): .258/.340/.438, 5 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 11.7 BB%, 20.4 K%, 103 PA.
Yohendry Sanchez: DOB: 11/9/2006. B-R, T-R. 6' 0", 229 lbs. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2028.
2026(ACL): .311/.468/.393, 5 2B, 3 SB, 21.5 BB%, 8.9 K%, 79 PA.
Switch-hitting catchers are rare. Fun Fact: Yohendry Sanchez got a bigger signing bonus than Jhonny Level.
Thanks, Doc! Looking forward to the rest of the positional summaries. There’s probably more behind the Bailey trade, especially with Buster being a former catcher, than the public will ever know. But the extra draft capital we received helped the FO navigate the draft in a way they could not have done otherwise, and hopefully it proves to be fruitful. One question- I believe Barajas was drafted in 2025 out of a JC. Does that make him Rule 5 eligible in 2029, or does his age or draft origin mean he has to be protected in 2028? Of course, rule changes in the next CBA might make it a moot point anyway.
ReplyDeleteBarajas was 21 yo when he was drafted so he has just 3+ seasons of development before reaching Rule 5 eligibility like if he was drafted out of a 4-year college.
DeleteHow do the 3 with MLB experience rank defensively? And Sugastey, too, who is the youngest of the 4, and has comparable AAA numbers with the other 3?
ReplyDeleteBailey picked up his game somewhat with Cleveland having a career high in OPS+ and hitting extra well in the post season and may push Cleveland into the ALCS today. He still has terrible RHB numbers compared to LHB. Didn't his refusal to go all LHB contribute to his being traded?
Minasian commented about Patrick Bailey on KNBR and felt that his defensive metrics declined in 2026 but did not go into details. Kuiper said that Bailey's former strength of stealing pitches and pitch framing was negated by the use of ABS. Also, at the time of the trade, his ABS challenge rate was not good almost to the point that it would be better for the team if he had not called the challenge. At the end of the season, Bailey was ranked 5th among catchers (based on number of successes) with ABS challenges so he improved as the year went along. Based on percentage of successful challenges, he ranked 12th.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Minasian's comments when compared with the other Giants catchers, Bailey's ABS challenge percentage was slightly better than Susac's and Kizner's but their sample sizes were not really big enough to tell. Bailey was probably better than Susac and the rest on ABS and the pitchers liked throwing to Bailey. There were comments made about improvements Susac made but my feeling is that Bailey is still the best catcher out of all of them and personality issues may have induced the trade more than anything defensively or hitting-wise. Also, the key piece to the Bailey trade might well be Bolemon, not Tugboat but that remains to be seen.
MInasian's comments about Bailey came about a month after the trade and he was probably trying to justify it in that way to the pitchers and to the fanbase. He was careful not to make any direct comparisons between Bailey and Susac. To praise Susac in a way to make it sound as if he were as good as or better than Bailey may not be accurate at this point.
Are the Guardians' pitchers calling their own pitches? If not, Patrick Bailey just bumbled into an MLB record 75 K's in five game series. The Giants DNP.
ReplyDeleteIt helps to have a SP(Gavin Williams) who pumps hundos for with wipeout secondary stuff.
DeleteMinasian probably should not have made strong negative comments about Bailey. Those kinds of comments have a tendency to reflect worse on the speaker more so than the player.
ReplyDelete