Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Scouting the 2026 Trade Deadline

The Giants had one of the biggest trade deadline days in franchise history.  Certainly the biggest all-out deadline sale I can remember.  Whent the dust cleared 6 players were traded off the Active Roster for a total of 8 prospects, most of them ranked in the top 10 of organizations they come from and 5 immediately slot into the MLB's Top 30 Giants Prospects.  Here is a list of the players the Giants traded yesterday and today:

Tyler Mahle RHP

Luis Arraez 2B

Robbie Ray LHP

Caleb Kilian RHP

Erik Miller LHP

Heliot Ramos OF

Carlos Gutierrez OF(A+)

We all know who they are so I am not going to go into detail of their strengths and weaknesses.  The only (slight) surprises were Ramos and GutierrezRamos was traded for the prospect return he could get and because the Giants have several OF prospects they are hight on and need to open up positions where they can play.  Gutierrez was throw-in on a deal for a former #4 overall draft pick.

Let's grind through the prospects the Giants got in return.  I will list them in the order of where I rank them.

Ramon Marquez RHP(Phillies).  DOB:  9/19/2005.  6' 2", 182 lbs.    

2026(A):  3-0, 1.86, 29 IP, 14.59 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 1.86 GB/FB.  
2026(A+):  3-1, 1.50, 30 IP, 13.80 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 2.25 GB/FB.

MLB scouting report gives him a FB that sits 94-96 MPH and hits 98, a cutter and a 70 grade changeup that is rated one of the best in the minor leagues.  Some effort in his delivery which could bode for more of a bullpen role.  

Henry LaLane LHP(Yankees).  DOB:  5/18/2004.  6' 7", 211 lbs.  

2026(A):  4-1, 2.74, 62.1 IP, 11.70 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 1.73 GB/FB.
2025(A+):  0-0, 2.87, 15.2 IP, 9.77 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 1.06 GB/FB.

Big, tall lefty.  Son of a basketball player.  $350 K international signing bonus.  Lost a couple seasons to a shoulder injury but seems fully healthy now.  60 grade FB sits at 94 and tops out at 98.  Best secondary pitch is a 60 grade changeup.  Slider is a sweeper.  Throws consistent strikes.  

Miguel Mendez RHP(Padres).  DOB:  7/1/2002.  6' 2", 165 lbs.  

2026(AA):  2-2, 4.93, 34.2 IP, 9.87 K/9, 4.41 BB/9, 1.19 GB/FB.

Broke out in 2025 after 4 years in A ball.  Velocity spiked to 95-100 MPH.  Tight slider is a "dynamite" weapon.  Changeup is less developed.  Improved control but still walks too many.  Probably profiles as a RP.  

Joniel Hernandez SS(Padres).  DOB:  3/6/2009.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 180 lbs

2026(DSL):  .303/.424/.503, 15 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 4 SB, 16.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, 192 PA.

17 yo SS out of Cuba.  $1.4 M signing bonus.  Loose, whippy swing comes with some length but currently hitting for average in the DSL and showing excellent strike zone judgment.  Projectable power in both the swing and frame.  Run is best tool with a 60 grade.  A lottery ticket, for sure.

Kaeden Kent SS(Yankees).  DOB:  8/29/2003.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 200 lbs.

2026(A+):  .302/.359/.433, 20 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 20 SB, 8.2 BB%, 16.1 K%.  

Giants are stockpiling legacy prospects.  Kent is the son of recently inducted HOF'er Jeff.  Profiles more at 2B defensively.  Batted .417 in the 2024 College World Series.  3'rd round draft pick.  High baseball IQ, line drive swing that produces contact but limits power.

Marty Gair RHP(Phillies).  DOB:  7/17/2003.  6' 6", 230 lbs.

2026(A):  2-3, 4.91, 33 IP, 15.82 K/9, 5.73 BB/9, 6 Saves.

Big reliever with a bigger fastball that reaches 102 MPH.  Just what the doctor ordered for a velocity starved bullpen.  Can get a wild hair up his nose.

Marcelo Mayer IF(Red Sox).  DOB:  12/12/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 3", 188 lbs.  

2025(AAA):  .271/.347/.471, 9 HR, 2 SB, 10.4 BB%, 19.7 K%, 193 PA.
2025(MLB):  .228/.272/.402, 4 HR, 5.9 BB%, 30.1 K%, 136 PA.
2026(MLB):  .220/.282/.312, 3 HR, 3 SB, 7.0 BB%, 19.3 K%, 228 PA.

Former #4 overall draft pick whose career hit a wall in the transition from prospect to MLB'er.  Sweet swing but one that produces too much ground ball contact and tends to chase off-speed pitches.  Struggles against LHP's which may limit him to platoon work.  Giants gave up a pretty good lefty reliever and threw in a lottery ticket prospect to get him, so do they see something they think they can fix?

Anthony Molina RHP(Braves).  DOB:  1/12/2002.  6' 1", 170 lbs.  

2026(AAA):  3-2, 3.64, 54.1 IP, 9.28 K/9, 3.31 BB/9, 1 Save.
2026(MLB):  0-0, 5.40, 5 IP, 3.60 K/9, 1.80 BB/9. 

We profiled him in Sunday's Game Wrap after the trade.  Solid velocity and a 3-pitch mix but pitches to contact.

Overall Buster Posey used the trade deadline to stockpile a bunch of high-ceiling arms which at the worst bring added velocity to a velocity-starved bullpen which is exactly what he needed to do.  He did not shed any of the potential "albatross" contracts either by choice or more likely could not find any takers despite rumored interest from the Padres in Rafael Devers.  Perhaps the offseason is more conducive to that type of trade?  

Grade B+.   

29 comments:

  1. That would be hilarious to have Bonds and Kent in the Giants dugout again in a few years.

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  2. Buster earned his stripes yesterday, this is what I needed to see that .500 will no longer be acceptable. The present will be pain but, the future is orange.

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  3. Mayer is only 23 years old. Maybe he doesn’t really need fixing, maybe he just needs time? He did get called up too quickly in my opinion.

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  4. I doubt Posey was trying to seriously trade Devers. The other two maybe. But clearly he was listening to offers and no one offered him anything that interested him and he doesn’t want to give up those guys just to give them away, he’s still clearly trying to win next year and having Chapman, Adames and Devers on your team next season increases your chances. Just need to do a better job building around them. Really need much better pitching in the rotation and pen

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    1. You really think the main problem with Adames, Chapman and Devers is the cast around them? Devers has been OK after the season was already lost on May 1 but the other two have been either awful or injured all season. And it appears likely that all three are already well into the downsides of their careers so it's only going to get worse.

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    2. Can’t disagree. I still think there’s a chance they may be able to move Chapman if they eat some salary. Of course, a lockout next year could change things. Adames is cooked. Looked terrible last night against the Rangers. I’m not sure what they are going to do with this guy. Eventually (sooner rather than later), he’s going to be a “real” liability and there are going to be better options.

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    3. Adames and Chapman are themselves problems and always were. Bad judgment by Buster. Bad Milwaukee intelligence from Zack. Devers neutral impact. I’d keep him but for Eldridge.

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    4. Can anyone name the better FA signings that were done around the same time, similar money, but worked out way better for their respective orgs?

      If you don't have talent on the team or farm, as was the current FOs situation when they entered, then you have to do the best you can in FA. I'd like to see them do better in FA, hopefully that's coming.

      For now, I'm just also hoping Vitello will find another gear as Manager. There's things I like about him, but he needs to get this religious stuff off the field and find a way to be far more deft with his in-game moves. I expect they'll give him at least one more shot next year.

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    5. Just because there are not better free agents available is not justification for signing bad contracts. I don't have time to research every available free agent and every available trade target but I am quite sure there were players available who would do the same or better job for a whole lot less money, starting with Dom Smith instead of Rafael Devers. As for Vitello, "he needs to get this religious stuff off the field and find a way to be far more deft with his in-game moves." In other words if only he was someone other than who he is.

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  5. I think the trade for Mayer is a reach. I like the other trades.
    Concerned about Mendez becoming rule 5th eligible this winter.

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    1. Calling Mayer a reach when all we did was give up an expendable prospect and a lefty reliever is a reach. Mayer started the year at #10 on MLB pipelines list last year and got ho to #5 before being called up that year. I thought they rushed him at the time they called him up and his numbers in the pros dictate that they rushed him. Only 23 years old and with a high ceiling, he’s already shown to be a defensive fit at 3B or 2B while SS remains to be seen. He’s just got to hit in the majors. This was a low risk high reward move. The type of gamble that you take when it’s offered to you. His age fits with Eldridge. Great acquisition and I hope it works out but if it doesn’t then at least we tried.

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    2. Mayer is a good gamble. I also felt that he was called up prematurely by the Red Sox and I don't see him as a "churn" type player. Miller has shown command issues far too often to be counted upon long term.

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    3. Mayer is a classic buy-low, post-hype upside play. May or may not work out.

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  6. If nothing else, Mendez could serve as another trade chip for the offseason. As Doc pointed out, in order to unload Chapman, Adames or Devers, the Giants are going to have to eat some money. How much could come down to which young prospects Buster is willing to package into any deal(s).

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  7. There are many things to criticize Posey for, but we should also acknowledge that he is not afraid to make risky decisions, unlike some othere before him. The red Sox trade confuses me, since we gave up a solid bullpen arm (one of the few we have) for a Middle infielder, even though we have a long line of prospects who can take over as early as next year. Yet again, I cannot criticize wuthout much information; it is a risky move.

    As for trading the big three, even if we put the contracts aside, only Devers offers value to a contending team. Chapman is injured; Adames is .. well, Adames. Devers is still a left handed power, and I was hoping, but not expecting him to be traded by taking a big part of his contract.

    Overall, I am excited.

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  8. There are some interesting acquisitions with potential upside and not much was really lost considering the Giants current situation. Buster seems to do pretty good at acquiring prospects compared to free agents.

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  9. Carlos Gutierrez alone could be better than Marcelo Mayer although it will be a few years before that could happen.
    Seems a bit surprising to "throw" him in the mix.
    Doc said at the end of 2025: "To my eye, Carlos Gutierrez was the best looking prospect on the team" and a week or so ago: "Carlos Gutierrez is batting .389 in July"

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    1. Time will tell what Gutierrez is but I don't see Carlos surviving the AA turn . He's 22 this month, and his July number of .368 only dragged his average to .271 for the season. He's a slap hitter with limited power and not a defensive plus player

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    2. I think Carlos has more potential than that but he has been held back by injuries.

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  10. Exciting to see the farm system beginning to grow and thrive, not just with the talent, but with what appears to be developing that talent. Time will tell how these things go because, it turns out, these guys eventually have to play real baseball games and their performance, not our commentary, will reveal if Buster made good moves or not.

    Just a side note: after the deadline, I was curious to lookup Marco Luciano and see what he's been up to. .978 OPS in 300ABs for the Yankees AAA.

    Andy in OC

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    1. About 100 of those ABs at AA this year. But, wow, he never came remotely close to putting up those numbers in the minors for the Giants. Makes you wonder.

      25 next season...

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  11. Giants had a very interesting deadline. When I checked something was ayear. coming up. Buster and ZM impressed with all the young arms acquired. Ramon Marquez is the 2nd best pitching prospect in their system behind Flora, wow. Would have been nice if Giants could've acquired a pitcher like Soriano to help 2027. Buster Said they want to win, ownership has never agreed to rebuild. Webb and Lee off limits. They didn't get rid of any of their big contracts.. I'm hoping Buster, ZM and TonyV come back for 1 more yeat.

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  12. Given that Buster Posey/GMZM had about the worst and most incompetent off-season that a POBO/GM could have last year and leaving the Giants with no BP, no rotation, no OF, no manager and inconsistent Core vets, it was a great surprise to see how well he did over the past few days...No MLB Top 50 prospects and nobody really close but some very good and intr[guing prospects that continue to build a rising system,. A very good job, Actually, I guess it wasn't a surprise becusue Put this together with the Bailey trade and the trades last season . plus the international FAs , and a good draft(s) and we can see that Buster and GMZM know what they are doing in building the farm system.

    Too bad they have no clue how to put together a Major league roster and perhaps they should hire somebody with a keaner eye for existing MLB talent?? As is, for the rest of the season, the Giants are a tire fire...no rotation, no bullpen, no OF and even the IF with ARRAEZ gone is sub standard. Possibly the worst team in all of baseball...but that's a good thing right now. It won't be difficult at all to grab #1 or #2 draft pick for next year's draft. Can easily see the Giants farm system being in the single digits either now or at least by next year

    And hopefully, the Giants and maybe even a new hire are already looking at every possible MLBer for this coming off-season becasue it is very likely they will need about 12 new players (3 OF, 3 SP, 4 BP,1C plus more) even before a hopeful trade of Chapman or Adames

    SteveVA

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    1. Under Major League Baseball's collective bargaining agreement, non-revenue-sharing, large-market teams (like the Giants) are barred from landing in the lottery in consecutive years, capping their next first-round pick at no higher than 10th.
      No matter how bad the Giants regular-season record is this year, their highest possible selection in the first round next year is 10th.
      They are only 5 games above last place, so, with enough losing, they could get the 1st pick in the rounds from the 2nd to the 20th, but there are 5 teams they would have to "jump"!
      As for the 10th pick in the draft, the Giants got Bumgarner and Lincecum at 10 in consecutive drafts. They also got Hunter Bishop with the 10th pick in 2019.

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    2. It'll be a little difficult for the Giants to grab 1st or 2nd pick next year, Steve. Gotta wait until 10th pick at least.

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    3. Well, you're not wrong about some things, but I see the upcoming 2027 roster very differently without squinting too hard. Might not be a Dodger-beating team, but they did not gut the core to make any of these moves.

      Here's an easy to envision 2027 lineup:

      1B Bryce Eldridge
      2B Casey Schmidt
      SS Adames
      3B Chapman/Parks Harber
      RF ??? FA X
      CF Jonah Cox/Gilbert
      LF JH Lee
      DH Devers

      IF Utility: Koss, Jesus Rodriguez
      OF Utility: Gilbert, Basabe

      AAA Until Ready: Mayer (3B/2B), Marty Gair (RP)
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      So, to me I think they only need 1 Legit OF FA, no FA catchers, and yes as many excellent FA signings for Uber rotation and bullpen as possible.

      But remember, the gotta haven't had anything impressive at SP for years and years now. The way that will change is from the Farm, not from the FA machine.

      Cheers all
      SF Fan in Michigan

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    4. I missed Catcher: Susac and Cavenaugh. Also good upside there, I like these guys both to develop more, and quickly.

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  13. It’s a bad year to be bad! We’ve seen what the Giants did with a large draft capital war chest so they might want to try to make more Bailey for draft capital type of trades… unless the Manfredians overhaul the draft and that is no longer allowed.

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  14. Thanks for the correction and information gents! That's what happens when i try to put an optimistic spin on something!!!

    SteveVA

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