Sup Dawgs!? Amid a last minute flurry of Hot Stove League activity, including the announcement of Luis Arraez 2B signing a free agent contract with the Giants, Buster Posey commented to the beat writers that he is more on "listening" mode at this point than in pursuit mode. Now, to his credit, Buster has not exactly been transparent about his Hot Stove League game plan so another under-the-radar move could happen if a last minute bargain presented itself but that can always happen. It seems like between Buster's comments and report day for pitchers and catchers we are reasonably safe to declare the 2025/2026 Hot Stove League complete and open it up to to snap grades.
Q: What is your grade for Buster Posey and the Giants front office on the 2025/2026 Hot Stove League season?
Gotta give Buster a solid B. Impact FA starting pitching is just a non-starter (pun intended). Can't take a $30-$40 million hit. We're either going to have to find the right trade or struggle with what we have. He lengthened the lineup well with Bader and Arraez. I would like to have seen him do more with the bullpen.
ReplyDeleteThe farm is going to have to produce more of a core before it makes any kind of sense to exceed the salary cap. Given (my admittedly perceived) spending limitations, I think he's done a good job, and I'm really glad he's held on to the blue chip prospects.
Good point. The price of pitching in this Hot Stove League season was insane. Buster arguably got two of the better bargains on the market.
DeleteBetter chemistry, B, maybe B+ depending on the bullpen and young pitchers. Bob in Dixon
ReplyDeleteA "C". Bader and Arraez help, but the team still needs another couple of pitchers. The current staff has too many "hopes".
ReplyDeleteQuestion-Shouldn't we be giving this grade to both Buster and Zack Minasian?
ReplyDeleteBrief scattered thoughts on the big four FA signings based on projections:
1) Harrison Bader improves the defense but is projected to be a league average hitter. +2ish WAR Optimistically, I hope Bader continues his last year's offensive surge.
2) Luis Arraez will add to the offense but is a liability in the field. +2ish WAR
3) Adrian Houser gives mid-rotation depth.1 to 2 WAR
4) Tyler Mahle gives back of rotation depth. 1 to 2 WAR.
The above hitting projections with a full season of Devers improve the team's offense, while pitching remains to be a concern.
Overall, Fangraphs projections have the Giants over/under being 84 wins which is better than last year. (BTW, one can make a bet on FanDuels with the over/under at 81.5 wins. Keep in mind it is a long season).
I would give Buster a B+ as the team improved this offseason with the above projections.The offense will be better which as a fan, will make the season more enjoyable. IMHO the season will hinge on how well the bullpen holds up and having some of the young pitchers step up as needed when injuries occur or when one or more of the SP and/or RP fail.
Without knowing for sure what Buster's constraints were – how much money could he spend and how long a contract could he give? – there are multiple grades possible, each valid within its constraints.
ReplyDeleteIf his cap was firmly the 1st Luxury Tax threshold and that includes trade deadline payroll, then he gets an A+: he filled the gaps and even relief pitching is OK because they are backstopped by the disproportional number of SPs the Giants have: some can relieve. It would have been nice to have a lockdown Closer but with Closers you never know.
Other than a sure thing closer, the holes are filled.
Good job, Buster!
As an early Posey skeptic, I'm converted: well done.
DeleteB+ for filling most of the holes while sacrificing none of the future. He is playing the long game while treading water in the short term but there is a chance they can do better than just tread water. The pitching is deep and flexible so I look forward to them getting creative with the option in the rotation and pen. Scherzer is still out there if they need to pivot due to injury or poor performance. Buster has given us a fun team to watch and a future to look forward to.
ReplyDeleteI've refrained from posting since my usual realistic or negative (depending on your view point!) take usually flies in the face of the conventional wisdom/hope on here and don't like to dampen the fun..:) Anyways, my take on Buster (GMZM doesn't really matter) is a C+...I think he did some good things (see below) but, while not having the full backing of ownership to spend like a Drunken sailor, also some head scratchers, high risk moves, especially the manager/coaching staff (which I won't go into), and left issues unaddressed.. But a big positive is Buster did a very good job in keeping the future intact, not crippling it and even added to it.
ReplyDeleteThey are clearly a better team then what ended up last season and closer to and maybe even better than AZ. But, from a pitching standpoint, the bullpen is a mess and has only been addressed by hail Mary's. The starting rotation additions are a mixed bag to me. I like MAHLE (but a risk) but very worried about Hauser.. As for the Bats, or one bat. I like the ARRAEZ pickup even if his D at 2B is suspect. And while 2B is not where i would have spent money (better OF would have been my choice), it is a very good dependable bat. The Giants can always go to late inning replacements for D. Speaking of D, I guess they picked that up in BADER in CF and that did need improvement but his bat has been an issue for quite few years except last year. Very, very risky. The OF is still a huge question mark everywhere to me and when Drew Gilbert is your 4th OF, you are in big trouble.
OTOH, good work was done in the International signing period and in not giving up high rated prospects or many pitching prospects on quick fixes for a year they don't really seem to worry about. as well as not giving out any insane contracts (term and money) to pitchers that can be crippling. None of this can be undervalued
All in all, the Giants remain what they are this year, a team destined to be fighting for .500 in the West, mostly mediocre, but perhaps hoping for magic like the 2010 -12 Giants or the Kapler year with all their complimentary pieces. And still providing some hope for the future with the way he handled the feeder system. I don't know maybe my letter grade is a little harsh... Go Giants
SteveVA
You are always welcome to post comments here, Steve VA. C+ is a reasonable grade. F? Now that would invite me to hit the button!
DeleteShould the manager acquisition be part of the off-season?
ReplyDeleteWith a rookie major league manager replacing a probable HOFer who was dismissed with a year on his contract because finishing .500 wasn’t good enough, Buster set the bar high for Vitello who must be part of this off-season.
That choice could validate (grade A) or undermine (grade F) all the player acquisitions. Or something in between.
Will the proven professional veterans second guess decisions or buy-in?
Which will this mix be: (paraphrasing) "Is it the best of times, or the worst of times"?
B. I’ve seen it noted that for a little over the cost of Mahle, Houser, and Arraez he could haved signed Valdez.
ReplyDeleteI would rather have Mahle, Houser and Arraez, but that's just me.
DeleteMe, too
DeleteIt is NOT just the cost of those players, Valdez had a qualifying offer attached so signing him would have also cost them 2026 draft picks and 2027 international bonus pool money. For a team that wants to build up their minor league system, doing that is not a wise move and not sustainable if they continue to do it year after year. The Adames signing really limited the flexibility of the draft and the international signing period. Buster considers Adames as "That Guy" but I don't think he considered anyone this current free agent class like that. To me, guys like Tucker and Valdez are not enough to torpedo the pipeline for.
DeleteI would give Buster / Minasyan a B+. With the salary cap constraint, I'd like to ask the group which team(s) got an A- or better this off-season. Most of the off-season "winners" probably eclipsed the Salary Cap and are willing to pay the Luxury tax, IMHO.
ReplyDeleteJust my opinion but if a POBO like Buster is being constrained by the Cap and the owner's limits, he just needs to be spot on with talent evaluation, on how to use his existing players and prospects and deciding where to spend the money. I just don't think guys like Hauser, Mahle (but a decent gamble) Arraez ( I like his bat but think the Giants could have used their existing 2B candidates)) and Bader ( just not a fan outside of his glove) and the Bullpen arms were the best way of doing that. That's why i rated him lower than some. But a big positive is that I do like how he handled the prospects and feeder system and contracts moving forward. Now, the manager, that's a big risk and unknown.
DeleteSteveVA
Fair enough, SteveVA. I would counter those points by saying the price of pitching in this Hot Stove League season was insane. To my eye, Buster got two of the better bargains on the market. As for Arraez, Buster has openly said he thinks Oracle Park gives contact hitters more value and Arraez is the best contact hitter in MLB by a fairly big margin. So I'm not really feeling your points that there is a deficit in talent evaluation here.
DeleteHey, Doc, what is the hamate and why are so many players injuring theirs?
ReplyDeleteHas this been a problem for a long, long time?
It's a small bone in the wrist that is apparently subjected to tremendous stress when swinging a bat. I could be wrong but based on what I've read the fracture generally occurs in the bottom hand when it grips the bat against the knob. It's usually treated by surgically removing the fragment or even the entire bone itself. Recovery is usually 6-8 weeks but power can be affected and take months to come back, if ever. If I remember correctly, Pablo Sandoval fracture both of his since he is a switch-hitter. It does seem like there is a sudden outbreak of hamate fractures.
DeleteThis isn't about Buster – he probably couldn't do anything about it even if he wanted to – but how dangerous will it be, especially for the 4 pitchers, and particularly Webb, to play in the World Baseball Classic?
ReplyDeleteSure, it's an honor, but what about the risk, especially for pitchers?
Isn't it kinda selfish?
The Giants could see 2026 go down the drain if Webb, ever the competitor, throws something he isn't ready to throw.
They have Spring training for a reason...
Per Google AI, one studdy showed that pitchers who participate in the WBC miss an average of 4 more days during the season than pitchers who don't. Other studies have not found any correlation. Sample sizes are small with many confounding variables.
DeleteThen we should root for Team Japan to have a long, grueling WBC.
DeleteDoc,
ReplyDeleteEveryone has read my rants enough. So I will give it a solid D. Giants rank at 82-80 wins in the FG power rankings projections, and the additions barely moved the needle. Didn’t step on any landmines though.
- Fan
I hate this grade so much I almost hit the button on it. I grudgingly post it only so I can say it reeks of bitterness and irrationality. Since you hate it so much, please put yourself in Buster's shoes and show us which free agent contract(s) signed by other teams the Giants should have outbid them on or trades they should have made and what players they should have given up to make them, and then what payroll you think they should have ended up with. I mean, if you really honestly think Buster deserves a grade of D for this offseason, you really should ask yourself if you are commenting on the right blog. Sorry for my own rant here but I find this comment so frustrating.
DeleteStarted the off-season concerned hearing their frustration in the trade market, and Greg Johnson not Buster saying they won't give out big contracts to pitchers. But they ended up doing a nice job filling holes in starting rotation , outfield, and 2nd base. They signed 2 bullpen arms Sam Hentges and Jason Foley who were high leverage relievers before they went on injured list. I give Buster and Zac a B.. we'll see about Tony V , have a feeling he'll be ok.
ReplyDeleteLove you Doc, we might just have to agree to disagree on this one. I did put real thought into the grade. The projections were my guiding light here, because even I was surprised they didn’t move much!
ReplyDeleteHowever now my general thinking is probably best captured by the intro to Grant Brisbee’s piece, “A Deeper Look at the Boring Practicality of the San Francisco Giants’ Offseason.” It feels like the Giants are clearly pursuing a floor over ceiling strategy. The issue, to me, is that they may have overestimated the quality of the players they brought in while underestimating the quality of the depth they already had in house.
What the projections seem to suggest is that instead of creating a true positive sum outcome, the new depth pieces are mostly cannibalizing playing time from existing players without providing a meaningful upgrade. Personally, I would have preferred pushing those chips toward a ceiling move, someone like Framber Valdez, where the upside meaningfully shifts the team’s projections, that still leaves room for a Harrison Bader type contract too (I think?), before hitting the owners self imposed spending limit.
- Fan
Someone else mentioned Valdez vs Houser, Mahle and Arraez. So let's take a look at that:
DeleteFramber Valdez, 3 yr/AAV $38.33 M with 2028 opt out: 2025 fWAR 4.0, 2026 Projections 3.1-3.8.
Adrian Houser, 2 yr/AAV $11 M no opt out: 2025 fWAR 2.3, 2026 Projections 1.1-1.5.
Tyler Mahle, 1 yr/AAV $10 M. 2025 fWAR 1.9. 2026 Projections 0.9-1.7.
Luis Arraez, 1 yr/AAV $12 M. 2025 fWAR 0.9. 2026 Projections 1.5-2.3.
Comparing bottom end projections: Valdez 3.1. Houser/Mahle/Arraez 3.5.
Comparing top end projections: Valdez 3.9. Houser/Mahle/Arraez 5.5.
Valdez Cost: $115 M. Houser/Mahle/Arraez Cost $44 M.
Rest! My! Case!
Doc, You are not accounting for war of Casey Schmitt at bats and young giants starter in for your calculations. FYI
DeleteYes, but you are not accounting for the pitcher Framber Valdez is replacing.
DeleteBTW, Casey Schmitt's projected fWAR range: 0.4-1.6.
DeleteA bit of a paradox is that Buster probably would have lower grade if he went with fan wishes to sign a lot of free agents and go past the CBT or complete trades using the young international talent. If spending $400 million on payroll doesn't get a team to where they want to go, it does not make sense. All offseason, I was afraid that Buster would trade away the top tier prospects such as Level or Josuar but it is only a short term fix and trading away their international prospects might affect their relationships with the buscones going forward.
ReplyDeleteI get the frustration from a lot of the fanbase but fans cannot compare this team with the Dodgers because they can tap into revenue sources that are unheard of by all the other teams. What they are trying to do now is build a self sustaining organization that constantly and continuously replenishes itself and not have to worry about purchasing free agents. Free agent spending can lead to loss of draft picks and loss of ability to spend international bonus pool money. Also, along with the loss of draft picks, I believe there is a corresponding reduction in draft bonus pool but I'm not sure. Getting contracts with qualifying offer attached is shooting yourself in the foot. Now they can start with a cleaner slate and it may take years to get the system running the way they like it.
One small eyeball test I use is when one looks at the list of free agents and finds Giants and ex-Giants ranked highly on it, that means the team is unlikely to be improved by free agency. Essentially, this means if they re-sign all their free agents or get something comparable, they are treading water.
ReplyDeleteB- after latest signing. I love the Hader signing since we had no one we could depend on for last OF. Now we are solid across all OF. 2b is a decent gamble. Worst case we have an ok defense but better offense. If Washington can work a little magic this is a steal.
ReplyDeleteSp I’m fine with. We have 3 dependable horses. Gotta assume one of 2 new guys works out and then we 3-4 options for the 5th. Short term, doesn’t hurt our prospects.
Worried a tad about relief but not sure signings help there. We have a ton of options. We just need a few to hit.
What I like most is not mortgaging the farm. We have pipeline of young guys coming up (although we seem to have a lot IF and a few need to move). Based on last 3 years we seem to IF of the future assuming one of the signings can move to 3rd. That isn’t counting the infusion of talent from the trades. Same argument on pitching. OF depth may be a tad light and definitely need help at Catching. But 1-2 good drafts could fix that too.
We are the it in the DR and surrounding areas like the Dodgers are in Japan. I’d like to see us expand to KBB. This is a marathon. Or to put it another way, Buster is playing chess while others checkers.
Just need to be a tad patient.
Buster has been quoted as saying the FO in "listening mode" on future additions. Beat writers took that as they're done adding. I like how Buster keeps things close to the vest. Now Greg Johnson comes out saying Giants are not done adding to 2026 team. Why would Greg Johnson contradict Buster like that. Its probably a small thing but I wish they would let Buster do all the talking thats all.
ReplyDelete