The Giants have kept the hot stove stoked late into the season. We can all hope they have a comparable stretch run in the 2026 MLB season. They moved closer to the all-important CBT threshold with yet another "value" signing as Buster's strategy of signing multiple lower cost players over one or two big-ticket targets comes into clearer focus. This time it was the man with the shiny batting average, Luis Arraez for 1 yr/$12 M. A second baseman by trade, Arraez had trouble finding innings at the position over the last two seasons and was openly looking for a team who would play him there. The Giants reportedly are that team. Let's break it down:
Luis Arraez 1B/2B. DOB: 4/9/1997. B-L, T-R. 5' 10", 175 lbs.
2025(Padres): .292/.327/.392, 30 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 11 SB, 5.0 BB%, 3.1 K%, 675 PA.
Arraez is an elite contact hitter who almost never strikes out. That is the type of hitter Buster Posey said he thinks fits the Giants home ballpark. He's like a throwback to Pete Rose with two seasons of 200 or more hits. The two raps on him are that he's an empty batting average and he is a poor defender. His defensive metrics are a bit mixed as he looks far worse by Outs Above Average(OAA) than by Fangraphs Ultimate Zone Rating(UZR). Arraez reports he worked out with a defensive coach at the 2B position over the winter. He is reported to have one of the slowest foot speeds in all of MLB but he somehow still managed to steal 11 bases.
From a hitting standpoint I like the signing. I saw so many situations over the past few years where a base hit would drive in at least one and possibly two runs only to see the batter strike out of pop up and end the threat. If he can be coached up to play a passable 2B then it's a great fit and the price is right. Arraez' profile reminds me of Melky Cabrera. Melky didn't work out in the end due to off-field issues but it sure was a fun ride while it lasted. Arraez does create a tough situation for Casey Schmitt and Christian Koss as there now may not be room on the active roster for both as utility infielders although there could still be some PA's at DH if the Giants decide Bryce Eldridge needs some more seasoning in AAA.
Here is a list of Giants free agent signings for this year's Hot Stove League season:
Sam Hentges LHP: 1 yr/$1.4 M
Jason Foley RHP: 1 yr/$2 M
Adrian Houser RHP: 2 yr/$22 M
Tyler Mahle RHP: 1 yr/$10 M
Harrison Bader OF: 2 yr/$20.5 M
Luis Arraez 2B/1B/DH: 1 yr/$12 M
Total additional 2026 Salary(AAV): $47 M.
The Arraez signing bumps their CBT number to about $228 M which is about $16 M below the threshold.
We can argue endlessly about whether the Giants ownership should be willing to spend above the CBT threshold but there are non-financial reasons why they shouldn't. We can also disagree with how Buster chose to spend the money but he did spend it and got 6 players who should each upgrade their respective positions. To my eye it looks like a successful Hot Stove League season. I will be surprised if they make any more major signings which would put them over the CBT threshold. Now watch Buster sign Framber Valdez and prove all of us wrong about how much Giants ownership is willing to spend.
Not only "...how much Giants ownership is willing to spend..." but also for how many years.
ReplyDeleteWith three contract 4 years and longer (Devers' is a lot longer) and another for 3 years which they may well want to extend (Webb) and another with an option on the 3rd year, it seemed clear from the get-go that there would be no long contracts.
Reportedly, Valdez is seeking a deal of at least 5 years, but there have only been 7 contracts 5 years or longer out of 109 free agent MLB signings. To sign Valdez for anything would take SF over the first luxury tax threshold which Johnson did NOT absolutely say they wouldn't, but $32M/yr would take them over the 2nd threshold.