Hey team! I really appreciate the comments and grades for the Giants offseason. I specifically asked for grades for Buster Posey(and by extension his assistants in the front office). In this post I will give you my grade for Buster Posey et al and also for the organization which I think had a better Hot Stove League than Buster did personally((I will explain although maybe Buster gets all the credit by virtue of sitting in the hot seat where he gets blamed for bad luck and therefore maybe should get credit for good luck?). Here are the grades:
Buster Posey B: Buster came into the 2025/2026 Hot Stove League with multiple holes to fill and one big limitation. We can argue endlessly about whether Giants ownership can or should be spending money to match the Dodgers. I do believe that if Buster went to ownership with a player he felt he needed to give them a serious shot at not just the postseason but a championship, ownership would give him the green light even if it put them over the CBT threshold. I also believe there were no players on this year's market he would do that for. I also agree with Buster and Greg Johnson that too many simultaneous 5 and 6 year contracts are asking for disaster down the road. So for all practical purposes, the CBT threshold was the upper limit of the payroll he would end up with and there were not going to be any long term contracts handed out. So with that situation as the starting point, let's look at the holes he filled:
Manager: Wow! Buster gets extra points just for the publicity the Tony Vitello hiring generated. Might actually be the biggest story of the Hot Stove League. He backed that up by bringing in a team of diverse but highly respected coaches who are expected to do what FZ and Gabe Kapler claimed they would do with their coaching staff. Now if all this turns out to be the right Manager and right coaching staff, he looks like a genius. If it fails, it may take Buster down with it so he may have bet his entire tenure on this one move.
Starting Pitching Depth: With Justin Verlander RHP a free agent, he needed to be replaced. Beyond replacing Verlander, He needed additional starting depth. He had a bevy of young starting pitchers who might step up but he had that last year and came up short. He needed at least 2 veteran arms more than he needed one top-end SP. On top of all that, the price of pitching was insane. Buster ended up with Adrian Houser RHP and Tyler Mahle RHP two veteran SP's coming off strong seasons but with injury histories. Signing pitchers with injury histories to discounted short term contracts is a Moneyball GM's wet dream.
Right Field/Outfield Defense: Buster faced a two-headed monster in the outfield with a hole to fill in RF and a CF coming off one of the worst defensive performances in MLB. He solved both problems with one move signing Harrison Bader CF, one of the best defensive CF's in baseball, to 2 year contract. That basically forced Jung Hoo Lee OF to move to RF where his more range limitations and strong arm should be a better fit.
Second Base: A lot of us would be happy if Casey Schmitt IF was the presumptive starting 2B but Buster has been clear on his desire to increase contact and decrease strikeouts. When the opportunity arose to snag the top contact hitter in all of MLB at a discounted price and just one year to boot, he did not hesitate. Luis Arraez is the Giants new 2B on 1 yr/$11 M. Buster is counting on Arraez work ethic and IF coach Ron Washington to make him at least playable at 2B.
DH: Whether Bryce Eldridge starts the season in AAA or in the Opening Day Lineup, it's clear Buster and the Giants intend for him to get his big shot at MLB stardom this season. He may be shagging fly balls in the outfield but the bulk of his PA's will come as either DH, 1B or both, splitting the positions with Rafael Devers. There is some risk in this move but I love the commitment and if it works out, Buster comes out of it looking like a genius.
Bullpen/Closer: This is where I knock Buster down by a letter grade. I don't see how Ryan Walker RHP can come to camp as the presumptive Closer but here we are. I get that Moneyball dogma says you don't spend top dollars on Closers or bullpen arms and somebody will alway step up, it didn't last season and it looks like there are fewer options this year. Prices for Closer-quality bullpen arms were insane and signing one would have made it difficult to fill the other holes and remain under the CBT threshold but if the season ends up imploding, the Closer role is the most likely to be ground-zero.
Giants sign Top international free agent Luis Hernandez for $5 M. The groundwork was laid for this long before Buster took over as POBO so he does not get complete credit, but for the second year in a row, the Giants under his leadership traded for international bonus pool money, something they almost never did in the past. This enabled the Giants to not only meet Hernandez' asking price but also sign other international players. Based on review of the Giants transaction log, that extra money has already been spend on new signings. So Buster gets at least partial credit for continued tangible commitment to the international market.
Giants Win the Draft Lottery: Well, they didn't exactly win it in terms of grabbing the #1 overall pick but they moved all the way up from #15 to #4 which should yield another top prospect and give another shot in the arm to a farm system that has serious Helium. So, this is pure luck and Buster gets no credit. Maybe Randy Winn gets credit for being the Giants representative in the room, or may Buster does get credit for choosing Randy Winn to be there. In any event, I would bet a lot of money that Randy Winn is the rep at the next Draft Lottery.
Organizational Grade: B+(higher grade due to adding Luis Hernandez and moving up 11 spots in the 2026 draft).
Met Randy Winn in an airport once and then ended up on the same flight seated next to him. I’ve told 100s of people: he was the kindest, most down to earth athlete I have ever seen or heard of. Gracious with his time for kids and fans, truly personable, and polite to everyone. To have him represent our organization at any level is a “winn.”
ReplyDeleteGreat post Doc, you covered all parts of the off-season. I can't wait to see Tony V in action. He'll have his ups and downs like all managers, but have a feeling he'll do a good job. Zack has mentioned that they believe their new pitching group/coaches will be able to develop the young pitchers such as Birdsong/Whisenhunt into good mlb pitchers. Pavs mentioned one of the questions they asked when they interviewed pitching coach candidates is what would they do to fix Birdsong control issues. This might be part of the reason they didn't acquire more pitching. A big key to the season might be is how much they get from their young pitching. My concern when Buster was hired as POBO was the job might be too big for him, due to his lack of experience. I think Buster is proving the job is not too big for him. Hes doing a good job , the best is yet to come
ReplyDeleteI concur. May not threaten the Dodgers but with luck can make the playoffs and in any event have an interesting and perhaps entertaining lineup. I think a closer will emerge and would be comfortable naming any of three or four (not Walker) as closer.
ReplyDeleteThanks, like the comments, think it's going to be entertaining this baseball year. Bob in Dixon.
ReplyDeleteBuster has some hits.....particularly the international stuff. But I can't agree on the grade. He left WAY to many holes in the pitching staff......two of the spots are filled out by guys with huge question marks. The bullpen is just a joke unless some of the young guys turn into dominant shut down artists overnight. I am just afraid there are going to be a lot of 7 to 5 6 to 4 losses when the bullpen will not hold a lead given to them by Webb, Ray or Roupp. I can't give it any higher than a C- and just hope that I am proven wrong.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you could tell us exactly which free agents or trades you think Buster could/should have outbid for.
DeleteThere’s a lot to be said for his job of walking the fine line between improving at the major league level and not jeopardizing the future: both financially and in terms of dealing away top prospects.
ReplyDeleteThis year should be especially exciting as we follow the development of the farm system. There’s a real chance it could rank among the top five in baseball within the next year. (Fingers crossed for no arrests, suspensions or freak accidents)
As I said in a previous post, I think Buster did some good things with and for the organization that will be beneficial as time goes on.. He did not subtract from the organization and actually added to it and did not take on any crippling salaries, Alll good stuff.
ReplyDeleteBut, as far as the MLB team Giants, I just think he left a lot to be desired. I don’t look at individual moves or the constraints; I look at the end product and where the team is now. I do like the entire iF, especially the bats and think they have DH covered..As for the rest, just a few too many risks, holes and unaddressed issues for my preferences. Maybe VITELLO will end up being a decent MLB manager, there is no evidence either way, but a guy who has only coached college teams and college athletes is just too much of a risk for my blood. Doesn’t mean it was a bad choice, only time will tell. I do like Ron Washington as an iF coach and he can only help the 2B
As for where I think Buster could have done better…The Bullpen, plain and simple, is a chaotic mess and that can sink a team.. The SP is a bit of a crapshoot also behind 2 pitchers. Even if I do like MAHLE here are about 55 question marks because of performance and health concerns. It can easily go south fast ..like last year. I also think the OF, except for an improvement in CF defense, has some very mediocre and questionable/uncertain bats for the 3 starting OFs. The less said about the OF depth, the better.
Still, if every player Buster picked up performs close to their absolute best (and not their mean) and that is entirely possible I guess, well, maybe the Giants can fight above .500 and maybe go from there. What my heart wants. Head says differently.
SteveVA
Maybe instead of once again reciting how you think Buster came up short, maybe you could tell us exactly which free agents and trades you think Buster should have outbid for.
DeleteAlso, due to California taxations, the outbid might need to be substantial
DeleteI am very excited for the Tony V hire.
ReplyDelete- Fan