MLB Draft Reviews: 2021 First Round

 1.  Pirates:  Henry Davis C, College.  

2024(AAA):  .307/.401/.555, 13 HR, 8 SB, 9.1 BB%, 22.4 K%, 254 PA.

2024(MLB):  .144/.242/.212, 1 HR, 10.7 BB%, 36.9 K%, 122 PA, -0.7 fWAR.

Polarizing choice as #1 overall as a hit-first college catcher who was widely considered a signability pick.  Better defender at C than OF in small samples.  Has put together excellent offensive lines in AAA but faceplanted in 2 MLB trials with a .191 BA in 377 cumulative PA's.  Can he make the adjustment with more MLB experience or is he a AAAA player?

2.  Rangers:  Jack Leiter RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  6-4, 3.51, 77 IP, 12.86 K/9, 4.09 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-3, 8.83, 35.1 IP, 7.82 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, -0.2 fWAR.

First 3 pro seasons did not go well with ERA's and BB/9's over 5.  2024 AAA was better but midseason call up to the Rangers did not go well.

3.  Tigers:  Jackson Jobe RHP, HS

2024(AA):  4-2, 1.95, 73.2 IP, 9.90 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 4.04 xFIP.  

Peripheral numbers don't match the ERA.  Also pitched 9 innings at AAA and 4 innings at MLB levels with even worse ratios.  His FB was 97 MPH in his MLB cup of coffee.  Maybe profiles more as a reliever than SP?

4.  Red Sox:  Marcelo Mayer SS, HS

2024(AA):  .307/.370/.480, 8 HR, 13 SB, 9.0 BB%, 19.7 K%, 335 PA.

The numbers look good.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs mentions issues with soft stuff low and away.  His last two seasons ended early with relatively minor injuries.  Still projects as at least a solid starting MBL SS.

5.  Orioles:  Colton Cowser OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .242/.321/.447, 24 HR, 9 SB, 9.3 BB%, 30.7 K%, 561 PA, 4.0 fWAR.  

K rate is a bit high but otherwise about all you could expect from a rookie season for a first round draft pick.

6.  D'Backs:  Jordan Lawlar SS, HS.

Battled a hamstring injury for much of 2024 and got only 104 PA at 3 levels.  Numbers are good when healthy and should graduate to MLB in 2025 if healthy.

7.  Royals:  Frank Mozzicato LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  5-10, 3.45, 101.2 IP, 8.06 K/9, 5.49 BB/9.  

Not the numbers you want to see from a first round draft pick in their third pro season even if they were drafted out of HS.

8.  Rockies:  Benny Montgomery OF, HS.

2024(AA);  .283/.313/.500, 2 HR, 3 SB, 4.2 BB%, 41.7 K%, 48 PA.

Underwent shoulder surgery in May and did not return in 2024.  Had been progressing at a reasonable pace before that setback.

9.  Angels:  Sam Bachman RHP, College.

Made the majors in 2023 and pitched to a 3.18 ERA but with poor peripherals.  Missed the second half of 2023 with shoulder inflammation and underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason.  Pitched at 3 levels in second half of 2024.  2025 should be a telling year.

10.  Mets:  Kumar Rocker RHP, College.

Did not sign.  Pitched indy ball for a year and was drafted by the Rangers in 2022.  Pitched at 4 levels in 2024 with excellent stat lines including 11.2 IP with the MLB Rangers.

11.  Nationals:  Brady House SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .234/.310/.423, 13 HR, 5 SB, 7.8 BB%, 24.5 K%, 306 PA.

2024(AAA):  .250/.280/.375, 6 HR, SB, 3.0 BB%, 28.8 K%, 236 PA.  

Projected to play 3B for the Nationals in 2025.  Offensive profile similar to Casey Schmitt.

12.  Mariners:  Harry Ford C, HS.

2024(AA):  .249/.377/.367, 7 HR, 35 SB, 14.5 BB%, 22.0 K%, 523 PA.

Power down a bit after hitting 15 HR in 2023 in A+ ball.  Excellent plate discipline.  Fangraphs notes improve catcher D.

13.  Phillies:  Andrew Painter RHP, HS.

Had a great Arizona Fall League with a 2.08 ERA and 12 K's, 2 BB's in 13 IP after missing 2 full seasons with a UCL tear.  Fangraphs comped him to Justin Verlander!

14.  Giants:  Will Bednar RHP, College.

2024(A):  1-0, 3.60, 10 IP, 11.70 K/9, 2.70 BB/9.

2024(A+):  0-2, 3.18, 11.1 IP, 15.88 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-2, 7.71, 32.2 IP, 11.85 K/9, 9.92 BB/9.

Bednar has been quite the enigma.  I really liked him coming out of the draft.  I figured a top pitcher from the top college conference would be a fast mover to the majors and be a rotation fixture for years.  I saw him pitch in San Bernardino early in 2022.  He took a no-hitter into the 5'th inning but something seemed off.  His velocity topped out at 92 MPH with inconsistent command.  He was shut down early in 2022 and missed much of 2023 with back issues.  His velocity was reportedly up to the mid-90's in 2024 but he continued to battle command/control issues.  He was not added to the 40 man roster this offseason and is Rule 5 Draft eligible.  He's a guy who could move fast if he ever gets his command back and stays healthy but how likely is that? 

15.  Brewers:  Sal Frelick OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .259/320/.335, 2 HR, 18 SB, 7.4 BB%, 14.9 K%, 524 PA, 1.5 fWAR.

Contact/speed guys seem to be coming back into vogue.  Buster Posey has indicated he wants these types of players on the Giants due to ballpark characteristics.  Most of Frelick's WAR value is in defense and baserunning.

16.  Marlins:  Khalil Watson SS, HS

2024(AA, Guardians):  .220/.305/.407, 16 HR, 15 SB, 407 PA.

Traded to Guardians with Jean Segura for Josh Bell at the 2023 trade deadline.  Off the chart tools but needs to improve contact.

17.  Reds:  Matt McLain SS, College.

2023(MLB):  .290/.357/.507, 16 HR, 14 SB, 7.7 BB%, 28.5 K%, 403 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Terrific rookie season.  Did not play in 2024 due to shoulder surgery in March. 

18.  Cardinals:  Michael McGreevy RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  9-8, 4.02, 150 IP, 8.28 K/9, 2.64 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-0, 1.96, 23 IP, 7.04 K/9, 0.78 BB/9, 0.6 fWAR.

Solid minor league record and a promising start to his MLB career.  Extreme groundball ratio with low walk rates is a recipe for sustained success.  Cardinals once again finding value in the second half of the first round.

19.  Blue Jays:  Gunnar Hoglund RHP, College. 

2024(AA, A's):  9-4, 2.84, 104.2 IP, 8.34 K/9, 2.32 BB/9.

2-24(AAA, A's):  0-3, 5.88, 26 IP, 7.62 K/9, 3.46 BB/9.

Traded to the A's in 2022 in a package for Matt Chapman.  Some inconsistent ERA's and pedestrian K/BB's.  Added to A's 40-man roster yesterday.

20. Yankees: Trey Sweeney SS, College.

2024(AAA, Dodgers):  .254/.334/.427, 13 HR, 16 SB, 10.0 BB%, 26.8 K%, 440 PA.

2024(AAA, Tigers):  .381/.447/.667, 2 HR, 4 SB, 10.6 BB%, 25.5 K%, 47 PA.

2024(MLB, Tigers):  .218/.269/.373, 4 HR, 2 SB, 5.9 BB%, 26.9 K%, 119 PA, 0.4 fWAR.

Traded from the Yankees to the Dodgers for a couple of pitchers in the fall of 2023.  Traded to the Tigers for Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline 2024.  Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Big-framed shortstop with starter-quality contact/power combo that plays down due to his downward swing."

21.  Cubs:  Jordan Wicks LHP, College.

2024(AAA):  0-4, 5.57, 21 IP, 10.29 K/9, 3.43 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-4, 5.48, 46 IP, 8.22 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, -0.1 fWAR.

Reached MLB level in 2023 with a 4.41 ERA in 34.2 IP(0.3 fWAR).  Regressed in 2024.  Maybe the league got a book on his stuff?

22.  White Sox:  Colson Montgomery SS, HS.

2024(AAA):  .214/.329/.381, 18 HR, 8 SB, 12.0 BB%, 28.6 K%, 573 PA.  

Fangraphs:  "Montgomery is probably too big for a shortstop but his on-base skills and power profile well at third base."  Will need to improve contact.

23.  Guardians:  Gavin Williams RHP, College.

2024:  3-10, 4.86, 76 IP, 9.36 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, 1.3 fWAR.

Reached the majors in 2023(1.1 fWAR) with inconsistent results so far.

24.  Braves:  Ryan Cusick RHP, College.

2024(AA):  3-3, 4.47, 56.1 IP, 10.07 K/9, 5.27 BB/9.

Traded to the A's in the package for Matt Olson.  Added to 40-man roster yesterday.  High walk rates have held him back and continue to be an issue.

25.  A's:  Max Muncy SS, HS.

2024(AAA):  .277/.374/.491, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.9 BB%, 24.6 K%, 203 PA.

Not to be confused with THAT Max Muncy!  Really, this Max Muncy should seriously think about changing his name or going by a nickname or something.  I get PTSD just reading the name.  We'll give it a scouting grade of 20.  Will likely make his MLB debut with the A's in 2025.

26.  Twins:  Chase Petty RHP, HS.

2024(AA):  10-5, 4.39, 127 IP, 8.72 K/9, 3.97 BB/9.

Traded to the Reds for Sonny Gray RHP.  Unexciting peripheral stats.

27.  Padres:  Jackson Merrill OF, HS.

2024(MLB):  .292/.326/.500, 24 HR, 16 SB, 4.9 BB%, 17.0 K%, 593 PA, 5.3 fWAR.

Best player in the draft so far.  Contact, power, speed.  He's the whole package.  Can he sustain it with that walk rate?  When a team gets a player like this at #27 is it drafting luck or skill? I mean the Angels got Mike Trout at #25 and he was their only good pick for a decade.

28.  Rays:  Carson Williams SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .256/.352/.469, 20 HR, 33 SB, 11.5 BB%, 28.5 K%, 505 PA.  Fangraphs:  "Williams has hit tool risk, but his power and shortstop defense make him a potential star.

29.  Dodgers:  Maddux Bruns LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  0-1, 2.22, 28.1 IP, 11.75 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

Severe command/control issues limit potential.  May end up as lefty reliever.

Summary:

Strange draft in that the back half of the first round looks a lot stronger than the front half so far.  Maybe too early to completely give up on Bednar but the probability is the Giants get no value from this first round pick and that hurts.