1. Tigers: Spencer Torkelson 1B, College.
2024(AAA): .239/.356/.442, 11 HR, 15.3 BB%, 30.9 K%, 275 PA.
2024(MLB: .219/.295/.374, 10 HR, 8.7 BB%, 27.6 K%, 381 PA, 0.1 fWAR(1.5 in 2023).
Bat regressed badly after hitting 31 HR's at the MLB level in 2023. Negative fielding metrics.
2. Orioles: Heston Kjerstad OF, College:
2024(AAA): .300/.397/.601, 16 HR, 12.4 BB%, 26.0 K%, 258 PA.
2024(MLB): .253/.351/.394, 4 HR, 8.8 BB%, 28.9 K%, 114 PA, 0.3 fWAR
K rate is higher than ideal but appears poised to become a MLB regular with some power.
3. Marlins: Max Meyer RHP, College
2024(AAA): 1-3, 4.34, 58 IP, 10.71 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.
2024(MLB): 3-5, 5.68, 57 IP, 7.26 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, -0.3 fWAR.
Undersized college P with a big arm. Appeared to have the most advanced stuff of any pitcher in the draft. May end up in retrospect as the classic high-floor/low-ceiling college prospect.
4. Royals: Asa Lacy LHP, College
Pitched ineffectively in 3 minor league seasons. Has not pitched since 2022 and underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2024.
5. Blue Jays: Austin Martin SS, College
2024(AAA, Twins): .305/.469/.379, 1 HR, 8 SB, 21.5 BB%, 11.5 K%, 130 PA.
2024(MLB, Twins): .253/.318/.352, 1 HR, 7 SB, 7.8 BB%, 18.3 K%, 257 PA, -0.2 fWAR.
Disappointing pro career so far from Martin who was rated as the best pure hitter in the draft. Has never played SS in the pros. Traded to the Twins in July 2021 with Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios. Lack of power is his biggest deficiency hitting just 16 HR's in 1500 pro PA's. Negative defensive metrics.
6. Emerson Hancock RHP, College
2024(AAA): 7-3, 3.43, 94.1 IP, 6.30 K/9, 3.53 BB/9.
2024(MLB): 4-4, 4.75, 60.2 IP, 5.79 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, -0.4 fWAR.
Pedestrian K/BB does not bode well for future success.
7. Pirates: Nick Gonzalez 2B, College
2024(AAA): .356/.429/.600, 5 HR, 9.7 BB%, 16.2 K%, 154 PA.
2024(MLB): .270/.311/.398, 7 HR, 4.7 BB%, 19.1 K%, 387 PA, 1.3 fWAR.
Can be a solid MLB 2B if he can improve on what was technically his rookie season with experience.
8. Padres: Robert Hassell III OF, HS
2024(A+): .259/.276/.370, 3.4 BB%, 13.8 K%, 29 PA.
2024(AA): .271/.357/.371, 11.0 BB%, 20.8 K%, 12 SB, 264 PA.
2024(AAA): .125/.188/.156, 3 SB, 7.2 BB%, 24.6 K%, 69 PA.
Fangraphs capsule comment is his offensive performance "tanked" after trade to the Nationals for Juan Soto. Fractured hamate after 2023 season. Still has time to bounce back.
9. Rockies: Zac Veen OF, HS
2024(AA): .268/.359/.457, 5 HR, 10 SB, 11.0 BB%, 26.2 K%, 145 PA.
2024(AAA): .220/.281/.476, 6 HR, 6 SB, 7.6 BB%, 26.1 K%, 92 PA.
Fangraphs capsule summary: "Veen's lefty swing is still vulnerable to inner-half velocity and he remains in a liminal prospect space more than he is a slam dunk big league star.
10. Angels: Reid Detmers LHP, College
2024: 4-9, 6.70, 87.1 IP, 11.23 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 0.7 fWAR.
Slightly better than league-average SP in 2022 and 2023. Pitched a no-hitter in his 2022 rookie year. Big regression in 2024 including a demotion to AAA.
11. White Sox: Garrett Crochet LHP, College
2024: 6-12, 3.58, 146 IP, 12.88 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 4.7 fWAR.
Crochet was my highest rated pitcher in the draft. Breakout performance in 2024. Only deficiency is he doesn't get deep into games. Intriguing trade target for a team willing to give up prospect capital to win now.
12. Reds: Austin Hendrick OF, HS
2024(AA): .188/.243/.288, 11 HR, 14 SB, 5.3 BB%, 36.5 K%, 474 PA.
Has never had a K rate less than 35%.
13. Giants: Patrick Bailey C, College
2024: .234/.298/.339, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.7 BB%, 22.3 K%, 4.3 fWAR.
Gold glove catcher by a large margin. Bat has faded in second half two seasons in a row. Still has one of the highest values out of this draft.
14. Rangers: Justin Foscue 1B, College
2024(AAA): .276/.420/.477, 9 HR, 17.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, 219 PA.
2024(MLB): .048/.091/.071, 4.5 BB%, 40.9 K%, 44 PA, -0.8 fWAR.
Decent numbers at AAA but faceplanted in a small sample at the MLB level. Not really what you are looking for in a guy who DH'd 11 games out of 14 even if he translated his AAA numbers to MLB.
15. Phillies: Mick Abel RHP, HS
2024(AAA): 3-12, 6.46, 108.2 IP, 9.69 K/9, 6.46 BB/9
Plus-plus stuff has not translated due to persistently high walk rates.
16. Cubs: Ed Howard SS, HS
2024(A+): .234/.289/.310, 2 HR, 8 SB, 6.6 BB%, 28.1 K%, 395 PA.
2024:(AAA): .139/.205/.167, 4.9 BB%, 26.8 K%, 41 PA.
Has tools but has never hit above .244 in the pros. Stuck at A+ level for 3 seasons.
17. Red Sox: Nick Yorke, SS, HS
2024(AA, Red Sox): .251/.325/.366, 4 HR, 8 SB, 9.1 BB%, 18.3 K%, 197 PA.
2024(AAA, Red Sox): .310/.408/.490, 6 HR, 6 SB, 14.2 BB%, 18.9 K%, 175 PA.
2024(AAA, Pirates): .355/.431/.507, 2 HR, 7 SB, 10.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 175 PA.
2024(MLB, Pirates): .216/.286/.378, 2 HR, 2 SB, 9.5 BB%, 28.6 K%, 42 PA, -0.1 fWAR.
Many analysts thought Yorke was a huge reach when the Red Sox selected him in the draft. Has put up some good batting lines but the knock on him is below average defense after moving off SS to 2B/OF. Traded to the Pirates straight up for Quinn Priester RHP.
18. D'Backs: Bryce Jarvis RHP, College
2024: 1-2, 3.19, 59 IP, 5.76 K/9, 5.01 BB/9, 5.12 FIP, -0.6 fWAR.
I have to admit I was really high on Jarvis going into the draft and was disappointed when the Giants passed on him to draft Patrick Bailey. Hmm.....seems like Michael Holmes and FZ know more about drafting than I do.
19. Mets: Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS
2024(AAA, Cubs): .255/.299/.509, 5 HR, 10 SB, 5.1 BB%, 27.4 K%, 117 PA.
2024(MLB, Cubs): .237/.286/.384, 10 HR, 27 SB, 5.1 BB%, 23.9 K%, 410 PA, 2.7 fWAR.
Tooled up. Traded from Mets to Cubs for Javier Baez IF and Trevor Williams RHP. WAR value is in CF defense. Can still develop into a 4-5 WAR player if bat progresses.
20. Brewers: Garrett Mitchell OF, College
2024: .255/.342/.469, 8 HR, 11 SB, 11.2 BB%, 31.7 K%, 224 PA, 1.8 fWAR.
Tools galore with positive value in all phases of the game. K rate limits future value unless he can bring it down.
21. Cardinals: Jordan Walker OF, HS
2024(AAA): .263/.326/.445, 9 HR, 7 SB, 8.2 BB%, 19.4 K%, 377 PA.
2024(MLB): .201/.253/.366, 5 HR, 5.6 BB%, 28.1 K%, 178 PA.
Looked like the steal of the draft when he burst on the scene in 2023 but fell victim to the "sophomore jinx". Future now uncertain.
22. Nationals: Cade Cavalli RHP, College
Missed entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery. Reinjured elbow during rehab assignment and was on a throwing program at the end of 2024 season.
23. Guardians: Carson Tucker SS, HS
Released on 7/3/2024.
24. Rays: Nick Bitsko RHP, HS
Has only pitched a total of 28.1 innings in pro ball due to a series of injuries.
25. Braves: Jared Shuster LHP, College
2024(AAA, White Sox): 0-1, 6.39, 12.2 IP, 6.39 K/9, 2.13 BB/9
2024(MLB, White Sox): 2-5, 4.30, 73.1 IP, 6.87 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 0.2 fWAR.
Traded to White Sox for Aaron Bummer LHP. LOL Fangraphs: "In Bummer Move, Braves Land Lefty Reliever for Pile of Ex-Prospects."
26. A's: Tyler Soderstrom C, HS
2024(AAA): .279/.385/.607, 10 HR, 11.2 BB%, 24.5 K%, 143 PA.
2024(MLB): .233/.315/.429, 9 HR, 9.4 BB%, 24.9 K%, 213 PA, 0.3 fWAR.
Drafted as a catcher out of HS. Now starting 1B for the A's. Bat still has a chance to be good enough for 1B. Son of former Giants first round draft pick Steve Soderstrom.
27. Twins: Aaron Sabato 1B, College
2024(AA): .206/.303/.350, 10 HR, 8 SB, 10.9 BB%, 29.7 K%, 350 PA.
K rate is holding bat back.
28. Yankees: Austin Wells C, College
2024: .229/.322/.395, 13 HR, 11.4 BB%, 21.0 K%, 414 PA, 3.4 fWAR.
Once again, Yankees find solid value at the bottom of the draft. Some analysts thought Wells had the best bat in the draft but had questions about his catching defense. Ironically most of WAR value in 2024 came on D.
29. Dodgers: Bobby Miller RHP, College
2024(AAA): 0-1, 5.06, 7.76 K/9, 5.74 BB/9.
2024(MLB): 2-4, 8.52, 8.36 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, -0.9 fWAR.
Very hard thrower but has not commanded his pitches at the MLB level and has been punished for it.
30. Orioles: Jordan Westburg IF, College
2024: .264/.312/.481, 18 HR, 6 SB, 4.9 BB%, 21.7 K%, 447 PA, 2.8 fWAR.
Low walk rate is concerning but looks like he can be a solid regular at the MLB level.
Summary: 2020 draft is shaping up to be extraordinarily weak, possibly related to COVID interruption in development. Giants taking Patrick Bailey is arguably the best pick in the draft. Garrett Crochet, Pete Crow Armstrong and Austin Wells deserve mention as good picks.
No comments:
Post a Comment