Hot Stove League Update: Reds/Royals Trade

The Hot Stove heated up yesterday as the Reds and Royals made a significant trade on top of all the last minute contract negotiations with the arbitration-eligible players.  The Reds acquired Brady Singer RHP for Jonathan India IF and Joey Wiemer OF.  Pretty straightforward:  Pitching for hitting and vice versa.  Let's take a look at the players traded:

Brady Singer RHP:  2024:  9-13, 3.71, 179.2 IP, 8.52 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 1.62 GB/FB, 2.5 fWAR.

 Former #18 overall draft pick in 2018.  Singer had a bit of a bounceback year after putting up a 5.52 ERA in 2023.  Peripherals look similar so the difference is probably mostly BABIP noise.  He's increased his IP every season since his 2020 rookie season.  Caution:  He'll be moving from a pitcher-friendly park to one of the most unfriendly parks in MLB.  The strong GB tendency should help mitigate that.

Jonathan India IF:  

2024:  .248/.357/.392, 28 2B, 15 HR, 13 SB, 12.6 BB%, 19.6 K%, 637 PA, 2.8 fWAR.

Royals wanted a true leadoff hitter and got one.  Unclear where India will play as the Royals already have a 2B and 3B who are better defenders. Fangraphs has him penciled in as the DH on their Depth Chart.  Power may take a hit moving to a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark but he's more of a doubles/gap hitter than HR power.  

Joey Wiemer OF:  

2024(AAA, Brewers):  .242/.387/.358, 3 HR, 6 SB, 18.3 BB%, 26.0 K%, 235 PA.

2024(AAA, Reds):  .190/.280/.229, 4 SB, 10.2 BB%, 31.4 K%, 118 PA.

2024(MLB, 2 Teams):  .154/.214/.154, SB, 7.1 BB%, 32.1 K%, 28 PA, -0.3 fWAR.

Has some raw power but strikes out way too much to access it.  As much as the analytics guys love the three true outcomes guys, to my eye contact skill translates better to the major leagues.

Summary:  

On paper it's an even trade.  I'd probably rather be the team controlling Singer's contract for the next 3 seasons and it's not clear how the Royals are going to replace him in their rotation as they don't have any high-ceiling SP's coming up in their farm system.