After giving it some thought, I am inspired to get back to some draft content. We'll do some reviews of past drafts to see what lessons might be learned and will start some scouting reports for the 2025 draft in which the Giants will likely end up selecting at #12 overall but could jump the line if they get lucky in the draft lottery. When were the Giants last lucky in the draft?
I think I was the first blogger/reporter to pick up FZ's spectacular failure in the first rounds of his drafts. Of course the Sabean/Evans administratation also had a dismal record for at least 5 years prior but after reviewing those drafts it was apparent much of the problem was where the Giants were drafting rather than poor selecting. We'll use the same process with FZ's drafts starting with 2019.
1. Orioles: Adley Rutchsman C, College.
2024 MLB: .250/.318/.391, 19 HR, 9.1 BB%, 16.1 K%, 638 PA, 2.8 fWAR. Down season after two 5+ fWAR seasons in 2022 and 2023. Has fully played up to 1/1 pedigree.
2. Royals: Bobby Witt Jr SS, HS.
2024: .332/.389/.588, 32 HR, 31 SB, 8.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 709 PA, 10.4 fWAR.
Possible future HOF. What you dream about when you draft in the top 5 of the the first round. Locked up on an 11 year contract for $289 M which looks like a bargain for the Royals at this point.
3. White Sox: Andrew Vaughn 1B, College.
2024: .246/.297/.402, 19 HR, 6.1 BB%, 21.3 K%, 619 PA, -0.2 fWAR.
The bat has not progressed as projected and he has terrible defensive metrics away from 1B. Got the ball in the air more in 2024 but with more pop ups and a lower HR/FB. Intriguing trade target for a team that thinks they can unlock the bat.
4. Marlins: J. J. Bleday OF, College.
2024(A's): .243/.324/.437, 20 HR, 10.4 BB%, 19.5 K%, 642 PA, 3.1 fWAR.
5. Tigers: Riley Greene OF, HS.
2024: .262/.348/.479, 24 HR, 11.0 BB%, 26.7 K%, 548 PA, 4.0 fWAR.
Some thought he was the best pure hitter in the draft. Has improved his numbers each of his first 3 MLB seasons. Probably not a future HOF but should have a long solid MLB career.
6. Padres: C. J. Abrams SS, HS.
7. Reds: Nick Lodolo LHP, College.
2024: 9-6, 4.76, 9.52 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 115 IP, 2.1 fWAR.
Put up a 3.66 ERA in 103 IP his rookie season in 2022. Numbers partially rebounded after a disastrous sophomore season.
8. Rangers: Josh Jung 3B, College.
2024: .264/.298/.421, 7 HR, 4.3 BB%, 25.5 K%, 188 PA, 0.3 fWAR.
Missed time with a wrist injury in 2024 but subpar K/BB's even when healthy don't bode well for a great career.
9. Braves: Shea Langeliers C, College.
.224/.288/.450, 29 HR, 7.7 BB%, 27.2 K%, 534 PA, 2.0 fWAR.
High K rates will probably continue to suppress his BA but has legit power. Disappointing defensive numbers. Langeliers was traded from the Braves to the A's as part of a package for Matt Olson.
10. Giants: Hunter Bishop OF, College.
11. Blue Jays: Alek Manoah RHP, College.
2024: 1-2, 3.70, 24.1 IP, 9.62 K/9, 2.96 BB/9.
Manoah was someone I liked for the Giants in this draft. He burst on the scene in 2021 and went 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA in 2022. He's been an enigma since. He underwent Tommy John surgery midseason and probably won't pitch again until 2026.
12. Mets: Brett Baty 3B, HS.
2024: .229/.306/.327, 4 HR, 9.4 BB%, 24.6 K%, 171 PA, 0.5 fWAR.
Has struggled with the transition to MLB but improved his BB% each season and at 24 yo still has time to break out.
13: Twins: Keoni Cavaco SS, HS.
2024: .245/.315/.356, 11 HR, 32 SB, 9.3 BB%, 16.3 K%, 571 PA, 1.9 fWAR.
Stott is the guy I thought the Giants were most likely to draft, partly because Bishop was off my board by #10. Stott put up a 4.2 fWAR season in 2023 but regressed last season and looks like his longterm position is 2B rather than SS. He's not a great fielder at either position.
15. Angels: Will Wilson SS, College.
16. D'Backs: Corbin Carroll OF, HS.
2024: .231/.322/.428, 22 HR, 35 SB, 10.7 BB%, 19.0 K%, 684 PA, 4.0 fWAR.
I don't think it's a stretch to say you don't need hindsight to know Carroll should have been the Giants pitch at #10. Maybe they were scared off by his relatively small stature but he's a true 5-tool athlete. Maybe they thought he was a difficult sign but he signed for near slot at #16. He'll always be the one who got away in my mind.
17. Nationals: Jackson Rutledge RHP, JC.
18. Pirates: Quinn Priester RHP, HS.
2024(2 teams): 3-6, 4.71, 49.2 IP, 5.98 K/9, 2.54 BB/9.
HS pitching prospect who did not develop as hoped for the Pirates. Multi-pitch mix but none are dominant and FB is low 90's. Traded to the Red Sox for another former first rounder who needed a change of scenery, Nick Yorke SS.
19. Cardinals: Zack Thompson LHP, College.
20. Mariners: George Kirby RHP, College.
2024: 14-11, 3.53, 191 IP, 8.43 K/9, 1.08 BB/9.
Incredibly consistent workhorse with almost identical lines the past two seasons.
21. Braves: Braden Shewmake SS, College.
2024(White Sox): .125/.134/.203, 1.5 BB%, 14.9 K%, 67 PA, -0.7 fWAR.
Traded by the Braves in a package to the White Sox for Aaron Bummer P. Numbers took a disastrous turn along with almost the entire White Sox organization. What's going on there?
22. Rays: Greg Jones OF, College.
23. Rockies: Michael Toglia 1B, College.
2024: .218/.311/.456, 25 HR, 11.8 BB%, 32.1 K%, 458 PA, 0.4 fWAR.
Nice power but high K rate, low BA and subpar defense at 1B limit his value.
24. Guardians: Daniel Espino RHP, HS.
Last pitched in 2022 and underwent reconstructive surgery on his shoulder after a promising start to his pro career in the lower minors. That's the risk of drafting HS pitchers.
25. Dodgers: Kody Hoese 3B, College.
26. D'Backs: Blake Walston LHP, HS.
27. Cubs: Ryan Jensen RHP, College.
2024(AAA, Twins): 4-5, 4.76, 56.2 IP, 12.86 K/9, 7.94 BB/9.
Has churned through multiple organizations since being DFA'd by the Cubs in 2023. Tough to see a MLB future with that walk rate.
28. Brewers: Ethan Small LHP, College.
Hey! He's currently in the Giants organization and on the 40-man MLB roster. Spent most of 2024 on the IL due to an oblique strain suffered in the spring.
29. A's: Logan Davidson 1B, College.
2024(AAA): .300/.366/.535, 14 HR, 7 SB, 7.8 BB%, 31.1 K%, 310 PA.
Currently listed as a SS but plays multiple positions. Seems like the A's could give him a shot at one of them.
30. Yankees: Anthony Volpe SS, HS.
2024: .243/.293/.364, 12 HR, 28 SB, 6.1 BB%, 22.6 K%, 689 PA, 3.4 fWAR.
You know who Volpe is if you had the stomach to watch the World Series between the two evil empires. Yanks have a knack for finding value with late first round draft picks.
Summary:
This was FZ's and Scouting Director Michael Holmes first draft with the Giants. On top of that, Holmes wife died from cancer complications shortly before the draft so I'm not going to be too harsh. I am not aware of any major red flags on Hunter Bishop and he had an outstanding college batting line. Unfortunately it looks like this was a strong draft with value throughout the first round and relatively few busts. Probably still too early to give up on Bishop but he has to step up in 2025. The apparent failure of Will Wilson to reward the $12 M cost of taking on Zack Cozart's contract makes this draft even more painful for Giants fans.
Re the Sabean/Evans administration(s), the latter picked Ramos in 2017 1st round who was an All Star @ 24 yo.
ReplyDeleteBart was picked in 2018 1st round who seems to have come of age: 120 OPS+ in 2024 may be a sign of success who failed with the Giants because he had to be brought up too early @ 23 yo when Posey opted out of playing in 2020 and then in 2022.
I remember thinking how unfortunate it was for FZ not to have his scouting director Micheal Holmes available for their 1st draft due to tragic circumstances. I've heard Brian Sabean, who worked with Holmes for a short time refer to him as a rising star in the industry. As you've mentioned drafting is hard, how could they have predicted Bishop would have so many injuries during his career. Bad luck?
ReplyDeleteAs you have mentioned Hunter Bishop is Rule 5 eligible.
ReplyDeleteThe deadline to "protect" him is 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 19.
With the Giants having 39 of 40 spots filled and the desirability to keep a spot open, isn't he is likely to be left off?
After Bishop finally having a pretty good year, wouldn't you think someone would take a flier on him for $100,000?
If the acquiring team doesn't want to keep him, don't they have to offer him back for $50,000 — what happens if the Giants don't want him?
Can he can be traded by the acquiring team with the 1-year requirement transferring with him?
Unlikely to be protected. Unlikely to be drafted.
DeleteI doubt he is #41 on their list.
Delete