Depth charting this position seems little academic as Matt Chapman pretty much has it locked down for the next 6 seasons. Six seasons? Yikes! That's a long time! I will be in my mid-70's by then!
MLB:
Matt Chapman: .247/.328/.463, 27 HR, 15 SB, 647 PA.
Wilmer Flores: .206/277/.318, 4 HR, 242 PA.
Casey Schmitt: .252/.283/.477, 6 HR, 113 PA.
Chapman had a tremendous season and parlayed that into a 6-year extension. Reminder that the best season of Wilmer's career came just one year ago. He's almost certain to pick up his player option for $3 M. If he's healthy, he has a decent chance to bounce back. We'll say it again, Young Casey looked like a different hitter in his end-of-season call up, but he'll have to find another primary position or fill a utility role now with Chapman blocking him at 3B for the next 6 years.
AAA:
Will Wilson(2 levels): .216/.299/.296, 5 HR, 6 SB, 460 PA's.
At this point, Wilson is more likely a candidate for release than for the depth chart at any position. Why his bat never came around is one of the great mysteries of prospect watching.
AA:
Justin Wishkoski: A+: .261/.349/.375, 5 HR, 16 SB, 324 PA. AA: .243/.331/.340, 2 HR, 2 SB, 120 PA.
Luis Toribio: .209/.307/.383, 8 HR, 239 PA.
Wishkoski and Toribio have opposite issues: Wishkoski shows surprisingly little power for a guy his size while Toribio has hit 21 HR's in a season but with K rates approaching 40%. Time is more on Wishkoski's side.
A+:
Sabin Ceballos: .269/.356/.407, 10 HR, 9 SB, 517 PA.
Charlie Szykowny: A: .340/.405/.505, 2 HR, 242 PA. A+: .235/.300/.379, 4 HR, 4 SB, 170 PA.
7 of Ceballos 10 HR came after his trade from the pitching-friendly SAL to the NWL. Szykowny is listed as a SS but most of his pro innings have come at 3B.
A:
Robert Hipwell: .196/.360/.402, 5 HR, 136 PA.
Elian Rayo: .243/.328/.356, 5 HR, 305 PA.
A pair of 21 yo 3B who got to SJ by very different routes. Hipwell was the Giants 6'th round draft pick this year. Rayo worked his way through the DSL and ACL. Hipwell bats LH, Rayo R. They both draw walks but with 30% K rates which seems to be where organizational philosophy evolved in the FZ era.
ACL:
Dario Reynoso: .206/.381/.323, 3 HR, 8 SB, 202 PA.
Another huge disparity in BA vs OBP due to K rate approaching 40% which also holds down SLG%. It will be interesting to watch for changes in batting approach as we enter the Buster Posey Era.
DSL:
Juan Colorado: .248/.330/.309, HR, 5 SB, 185 PA.
Albert Jimenez: .264/.339/.405, 3 HR, 186 PA.
Juan Colorado has an 80 grade name but Jimenez had the slightly better stat line for this pair of 17 yo.
Outlook: The cupboard is quite bare at AAA and AAA but the Giants are set at 3B for the next 6 seasons. The challenge for 3B prospects in the system is to hit well enough to force the organization to find another position for them or trade for a position of more need.
Matt Chapman was the Giants' best player in 2024.
ReplyDeleteHe was the heart and soul of the team and earned his reward.
But it comes with some caveats:
With nearly exactly the same number of PAs at home and on the road, of his 27 HRs, 18 came on the road.
His home/road OPS was .761/.819.
His 2024 OPS+ (125) was his best since 2019 (127).
He's been alternating high-low-high OPS+ since 2020.
His exceptional dWAR in 2024 was his best since 2019.
His 6-year contract extends through age 37: if his future stats mirror his past stats, he'll have good years and some not as good years, and he will have years that he won't play 150+ games which he didn't just 2 years ago.
Realistically, he won't be the 2024 version every year for the next 6 years, but we hope he will be until the Giants have an heir which doesn't appear to be on the radar.
There were 40 picks in the 1st round of the 2019 draft. The Giants acquired 2 of them, 1 drafted, 1 acquired.
ReplyDeleteThose 2, Bishop and Wilson, are among only 11 picks of 40, who have not made a major league appearance.
Seven of Zaidi's 40 picks have made MLB appearances, 2 of them for other teams and 1 (Avila) has come and gone.
Fitzgerald (4) and McCray (3) are the "best" and McDonald and Waites may still amount to something.
Doc, this is my issue with the Chapman signing and it all ties back to Farhan. Yes Chapman has had a few down years but the way Chapman played this year isn’t a surprise, if you look at his career stats this is the higher end of what he’s capable of (gold glove defense, good amount of walks, over 25 home runs, hovering around a .250 average. So last off-season, Farhan basically had Chapman all to himself, other teams weren’t interested and it’s deep into the off-season then deep into spring training. And instead of signing Chapman to a long term deal without opt outs that would’ve been significantly less than what he got now because there was literally no interest in his FA market, Farhan thinks he’s the smartest guy in the world and thinks he’s pulling one over on Chapman by getting him on this basically one year prove it deal where if Chapman is good then he’s gone and if Chapman is bad then we are stuck with him. That’s the stupidest type of deal to sign someone to unless you’re a playoff contender that’s a piece away and cash strapped. When you’re a bad team, you can’t build contenders this way, you need foundational pieces now rentals. So now we are stuck with Chapman for 6 years more (7years total) all because Farhan wouldn’t give him a 4 or 5 year contract at a price that would’ve been less than what he just got. This contract won’t age well but it wouldn’t been good if it was only 4-5 years total for Chaps. Posey had to clean up Farhans mess and give Chapman more than he deserved because of how badly Farhan messed up in the first place. This isn’t about hindsight, it’s always been obvious in the moment that Farhan had been doing a lousy job
ReplyDeleteChapman says Farhan signed him, not Posey.
Delete"... according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Posey didn't speak with Chapman about contract negotiations. Instead, the now 37-year-old made him confident in what the Giants will do in the future.
"While Giants minority owner Buster Posey met privately with third baseman Matt Chapman the day before signing his six-year, $151 million contract, it had little to do with contract negotiations but everything to do about answering Chapman’s questions about the future of the franchise. Posey assured him that the Giants plan to spend, and spend big, turning the organization around as quickly as possible."
https://www.si.com/mlb/giants/san-francisco-giants-news/legend-meeting-with-san-francisco-giants-matt-chapman-wasnt-about-contract
DeleteThere has been conflicting reporting regarding the exact nature of Buster's involvement in the Chapman negotiations. Of all the sports reporters out there, Nightengale has a reputation for being one of the less reliable ones. Circumstantial evidence strongly suggests Baggs reporting was the the closest to what really happened.
Not sure that you’re comment about Giants being set at 3B for the next 6 seasons. Maybe next 4 seasons. At some point the narrative is going to change to we are stuck with him at 3B
ReplyDeleteIt’s not academic to Dona depth chart for 3B. Next man up needs to be ready in case of injury. Schmitt would be the first to slide over if Chapman goes down.
ReplyDeleteI don't expect him to be as good, but Schmitt seems like a Chapman like player. Could see him regularly being 15/15 HRs/SBs with some gold gloves, still I think right decision to pay up for 6 more years Chapman instead of team-control run on Schmitt.
ReplyDeleteYour posts on the Giants are greatly appreciated, Doc.
ReplyDeleteWith MLB grinding toward an all NY World Series, or worse, a NY-LA affair unless the I̶n̶d̶i̶a̶n̶s̶ Guardians break through, it's fun to hunt for interesting SF news.
A guy mentioned semi-frequently in your comments but truly unheralded is Trent Harris, a UDFA as you pointed out, and you actually saw and commented on him after a game you went to.
He may be the deepest sleeper in the system with outstanding results in the ACL, and the lower minors. Somewhat of a stumble at the end of the year in a game with Richmond, but he will be interesting to watch next year in AA and Sacramento.
Where you will place Harris in your Top 50-100?
The Giants have several interesting UDFA players in their farm system including Trent Harris. Finding hidden gems who go undrafted is something the scouting staff seems to be really good at. Hopefully it will continue into Buster Posey Era. I haven't really started putting together my Top 50 Prospect list but I am sure Harris will be on it, probably in the 30-50 range until he proves it at higher levels.
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