Hot Stove Update: Scouting the Remaining Free Agent Starting Pitchers

Most analysts agree the Giants need to acquire another established starting pitcher and preferably one who would be at worse a #2 behind newly minted ace, Logan Webb.  In the week leading up to the lockout, SP's were signed right and left leaving less than ideal choices still on the market as MLBTR's top 6 ranked SP FA's are already off the market.  Let's break down what's left.  Once again, we will use MLBTR's salary projections which seem to be the most accurate of the free agent predictions out there.  

Carlos Rodon LHP.  DOB:  12/10/1982.  6'3", 245 lbs.  1 yr/$25 M.  

2021:  13-5, 2.37, 132.2 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9.  

Looking at those numbers you might reasonably think MLBTR's projected FA contract is absurdly low, and it may well be because a whole lot of teams seem to think he's a potential bargain, which means someone is probably going to overpay and by a lot.  So why is MLBTR so low on Rodon?  He seemed to run out of gas at the end of the season with a velocity slide from 96 MPH down to 91 MPH in his start of 9/29/2021.  He reportedly was back up to 96 in his next start 12 days later in the ALDS.  What seems very odd is the White Sox, who seem to be in a contending window apparently decided to let Rodon go without even offering him a QO which raises the question of whether they know something about his health.  If he's available on a one year deal, he's certainly in intriguing fit for the Giants, but I feel like he's going to generate a bidding war which the Giants don't seem interested in joining for any player which is probably a good policy.

Clayton Kershaw LHP.  DOB:  3/19/1988.  6'4", 225 lbs.  1 yr/$20 M.

2021:  10-8, 3.55, 121.2 IP, 10.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9.

There are all kinds of reasons why Clayton Kershaw won't pitch for the Giants in 2022 or ever, but man!  It sure would be fun to see!  It's not completely unprecedented for a former Dodgers ace to pitch for the Giants in the twilight of his career.  Orel Hershiser did.  But Clayton Kershaw is on a whole other level than Orel Hershiser ever thought of being.  The other problem with Kershaw is he was injured at the end of the season and into the NLDS and reportedly received a platelet-rich plasma injection into his flexor tendon which is not the UCL but it's not a good sign going forward.  The dilemma is how to you sign an aging, injured pitcher without either overpaying or insulting the guy.  That's a dilemma it's probably better to let the Dodgers wrestle with.

Yusei Kikuchi LHP.  DOB:  6/17/1991.  6'0", 200 lbs.  2 yr/$20 M.  

2021:  7-9, 4.41, 157 IP, 9.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9.

Those aren't terrible overall numbers for Kikuchi but his spin rates and ERA collapsed in the second half.  The Mariners understandably did not want to risk his 4 year/$66 M option.  Kikuchi declined his own 1 yr/$13 M option.  If the Giants coaches think they see a way to fix his spin rate, they could see him as a bargain at MLBTR's price point.

Zack Greinke RHP.  DOB:  10/21/1983.  6'2", 200 lbs.  1 yr/$15 M.

11-6, 4.16, 171 IP, 6.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9.  

Another guy who collapsed at the end of the season.  Maybe coming off  the shortened 2020 season it was too much to expect SP's to go right back to their previous full season workload?  MLBTR's price looks pretty good for a savvy veteran pitcher who as an ace as recently as 2019, especially to a team like the Giants who are good at managing workloads.

Danny Duffy LHP.  DOB:  12/21/1988.  6'3", 205 lbs.  1 yr/$10 M.

2021:  4-3, 2.51, 61 IP, 9.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9.  

Great numbers but missed most of the season with a recurrent flexor strain.  Giants reportedly had interest at the trade deadline.  FZ seems to think injury history creates buyi-low opportunities.  

Others:

Johnny Cueto RHP:  I could see the Giants bringing Cueto back on a one year deal with incentives but he may not be a fit if they are committed to Joey Bart as their starting catcher.

Michael Pineda RHP:  Pineda is coming off a couple of sub-4.00 ERA seasons with the Twins.  Not sure why he is not in MLBTR's Top 50 FA's.  Frightful injury history but again, that does not seem to faze FZ.  

Bargain Bin:  

Brett Anderson LHP, Zach Davies RHP, Mike Foltynewicz RHP, Kwan Kim LHP, Carlos Martinez RHP, Garrett Richards RHP, Matt Shoemaker RHP, Drew Smyly LHP. 

Martinez is the most interesting name in that bunch to me.  I'll break his case down in another separate post.

As you can see, the free agent market has a lot of empty shelves.  We may see a bidding war for Rodon which the Giants won't and shouldn't get involved in.  Kershaw is a big injury risk and not coming here anyway.  That leaves Kikuchi and Greinke as potential short term, low risk options.  In the next post, we'll break down the trade market which is considerably more robust for pitchers than hitters.