In previous posts we established the Giants are looking for a righthanded hitting bat for the outfield but a lefthanded hitting upgrade would probably help just as much. We also established that MLBTR is quite accurate in predicting free agent contract terms. We also speculated that FZ may have waited on the market to see whether he would need to fill a DH role for the NL Giants next season. With that said, let's break down the market for OF bats coming out of the lockout, whenever that is. Contract numbers are MLBTR predictions(although it is almost certain the Giants can easily afford to pay for any player they want, regardless of cost). 2022 projections are from Steamer(Fangraphs).
1. Kris Bryant IF/OF. DOB: 1/4/1992. B-R, T-R. 6 yr/$160 M.
2021(2 teams): .265/.353/.481, 25 HR, 10 SB, 513 PA.
2022(Proj): .251/.343/.445, 23 HR, 614 PA.
Positives: Versatile, can play any position except catcher and pitcher although probably best at 3B and LF. Small platoon split. Power.
Negatives: Not a great fielder at any position. Not a great fit for RF in Oracle Park which is probably Giants biggest positional need. Injury history.
2. Nick Castellanos RF/LF/DH. DOB: 3/4/1992. B-R, T-R. 5 yr/$115 M.
2021(Reds): .309/.362/.576, 34 HR, 585 PA.
2022(Proj): .269/.330/.484, 29 HR, 666 PA.
Positives: Best, most consistent bat on the market. Value goes way up if NL gets DH.
Negatives: Not good defensively at any position. Limited to corner OF. Once called Comerica Park a joke, presumably because it's hard to hit there, so may not dig playing home games in Oracle Park either.
3. Kyle Schwarber LF/DH. DOB: 3/5/1993. B-L, T-R. 6'0", 230 lbs. 4 yr/$70 M.
2021(2 teams): .266/.374/.554, 19 HR, 471 PA.
2022(Proj): .238/.344/.494, 35 HR, 583 PA.
Positives: Patience/Power. Value goes way up if NL gets DH.
Negatives: Historic low BA's. Inconsistent past performances. Not good defensively and limited to LF/DH.
4. Seiya Suzuki OF/IF. DOB: 8/18/1994. B-R, T-R. 5'11", 182 lbs. 5 yr/$55 M(+posting fee).
2021(Japan): .317/.433/.636, 38 HR, 9 SB, 538 PA.
2022(Proj): Not Available.
Positives: Power and plate discipline appear to be legit. Versatile fielder but best position seems to be RF where he has a 70 arm and enough speed to cover Triples Alley. Giants have historic and community Asian connections. Young age(2022 is age 27 season).
Negatives: Not much. Batting lines from Japan don't always translate to MLB? Maybe Giants have philosophical problem with posting fee?
Based on last post analyzing Giants needs, seems like an almost perfect fit.
5. Jorge Soler OF/DH. DOB: 2/25/1992. B-R, T-R. 6'4", 235 lbs. 3 yr/$36 M.
2021(2 teams): .223/.316/.432, 27 HR, 516 PA(OPS .658 with Royals, .882 with Braves).
2022(Proj): .238/.331/.469, 33 HR, 631 PA.
Positives: Off the charts raw power(hit 48 HR's in a tough ballpark in 2019). Value goes way up if NL adopts DH. Relatively low cost(MLBTR).
Negatives: Defensively challenged at all positions. Uneven past performance. Injury history.
6. Michael Conforto OF. DOB: 3/1/1993. B-L, T-R. 6'1", 215 lbs. 1 yr/$20 M.
2021(Mets): .232/.344/.384, 14 HR, 479 PA.
2022(Proj): .254/.358/.452, 25 HR, 607 PA.
Positives: Versatile defender who can play CF in a pinch. Main position RF. Potential 1 year deal?
Negatives: Large platoon split(unclear how an upgrade on YtY). Coming off a down season.
7. Nelson Cruz DH. DOB: 7/1/1980. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 230 lbs. 1 yr/$10 M.
2021(2 teams): .265/.334/.497, 32 HR, 584 PA.
2022(Proj): .267/.342/.500, 32 HR, 580 PA.
Positives: Reliable power. Value goes way up if NL adopts DH. Probable 1 yr deal.
Negatives: Age will eventually catch up. Limited to DH.
8. Tommy Pham OF. DOB: 3/8/1988. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 223 lbs. 1 yr/$8 M?(not projected by MLBTR).
2021(Padres): .229/.340/.383, 15 HR, 14 SB, 561 PA.
2022(Proj): .258/.354/.429, 18 HR, 15 SB, 555 PA.
Positives: Intriguing bounceback candidate. Can play all 3 OF positions. Low cost.
Negatives: Coming off 2 down seasons. Questionable circumstances around stabbing incident in which he was seriously injured prior to the 2021 season.
9. Joc Pederson OF. DOB: 4/21/1992(is he already 30 yo?). B-L, T-L. 6'1", 220 lbs. 1 yr/$8 M?(not projected by MLBTR).
2021(2 teams): .238/.310/.422, 18 HR, 481 PA.
2022(Proj): .236/.316/.448, 24 HR, 523 PA.
Positives: Local connection(grew up in Bay Area). Seems like a good clubhouse guy. Postseason reputation. Low cost(projected).
Negatives: Platoon bat(not a clear upgrade on YtY).
Next post we will review potential trade candidates.
If the NL goes with a DH, I think our man Darrin Ruf would be the best to fill that role. Was not impressed with him in the OF and at 1B even he was a liability. Can't remember who they were playing, but one game last year Ruf collided with Crawford on one popup and then ran into to Posey on another play. So I think it would be best to get Seiya Suzuki for the outfield job.
ReplyDeleteWhoa! I saw Longo and Crawford collide too. I think they are both pretty darn good defensive players, no?
DeleteSuzuki and Ruf would likely not be competing for the same defensive position. Suzuki seems perfectly suited to play RF in Oracle Park while Ruf clearly is not. Ruf is clearly not a great fielder but by defensive metrics he's not terrible either. This affords the Giants flexibility to upgrade RF or sign a DH-only player instead of a leftfielder.
Is MLBTR trolling your blog?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/the-giants-need-a-right-handed-bat.html
Wouldn't Conforto and Castellanos cost a draft pick?
If FZ wouldn't go five years, $110MM for Gausman, is he likely to go more for anyone on this list?
Ha ha! I wondered that myself. I think they were basically passing along Alex P's latest post from NBC Bay Area.
DeleteThe Giants are drafting dead last in the queue this year so if they are every going to give up one of those precious draft picks that never turn into anything, this would be the year to do it.
DeleteThat's true for the Giants, they only have 1 first rounder who was their best pick for the year!
DeleteOverall, 1st picks in the draft are more often than not not in the top 10 picks:
Year, round 1 pick #, best WAR(s)
2011: Pick 6 has had the best WAR, then 1,8,11,45
2012: Pick 1, then 18,22,47
2013: Pick 2, then 32,17,34
2014: Pick 13, then 7,25,10
2015: Pick 2, then 7,24,1
2016: Pick 32, then 8,3,33,34
2017: Pick 13, then 24,8,31
Giants best pick (WAR) by year 2011-2016, overall pick #:
29,568,312,118,186,59 — only 1 1st rounder was their best pick.
A couple of years ago, I did a detailed analysis of the MLB draft picks that came after the Giants picks for years 2010-2016. There are very few successful picks out of the 10 that followed the Giants from year to year which makes it very hard to blame the scouts and GM for the bad drafts. It is quite possible, even probable, the main problem was the Giants were simply drafting too late in the round.
DeleteObvious lesson from this analysis--it's good to pick 7th or 8th!
DeleteYes, I don't think Giants did that much worse than other teams considering where they were picking. I do question some first round picks but even those, they seem to be a combination of bad luck and other factors we're not privy to so we can't really make a full analysis. For example, it's been reported they really wanted Michael Wacha but he was taken right before Chris Stratton. If this is true, it's a case where the scouts and FO did their homework in a way but just things didn't line up. I'm sure there are so many cases like this that goes one way or another. My overall feeling having tried to analyze drafts is that it's really tough to distinguish yourself from all 29 other teams who're all trying to do the same thing--find talent. Did Jeff Luthnow really crack the draft code or was it because he had all these high picks? Probably a little of both. If you look at what are considered the smartest FO, like Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Milwaukee, they all have their hits and misses. The draft takes a lot of skillful talent evaluation and a lot of luck and good timing. But there are super scouts who seem to have a long list of great prospects attached to them, like Logan White, whose time with the Dodgers produced some great picks. Our super scout is Doug Mapson. Anyway, after reading many draft analysis, some from Doc himself, my conclusion is Giants are somewhere 8-12 range in terms of drafting from 2000 (Boof Bonser draft) to the end of the Sabean era (2018). It's too early to tell about FZ and current regime.
DeleteDoes anyone know the timeline for Suzuki's negotiations. I thought I read back in November that the deadline for the Hiroshima Carp to post a player was 5 December, and teams had a 30-day window to negotiate a contract. Is that all on 'pause' for the lockout?
ReplyDeleteIt's on pause. They are 10 days into the "window" so have 20 days after the lockout ends. I read somewhere just today that there may also be a deadline for him to sign a contract to play in Japan. He may not want to go beyond that deadline, so could decide to just play another year in Japan and go through the posting process again next year.
DeleteIf the Giants let Suzuki get away it's because they don't believe in him.
ReplyDeleteHowever, they have untapped resources if they want him. MLBTR predicts 5 years, $55MM. Front load the $55MM for 3 years - it won't affect their cash flow in that time frame - and back load it for 10 years total at $100MM +/- with a $5MM layer opt out after 3 years.
If he's ++ the Giants win the 1st part of the contract and he can get a big payday later. If he's just +, the Giants get something for a reasonable price. If he's a flop, it costs the Giants $10MM a year - which is not nothing but it's small change in the Big Picture of $200+MM per year payroll.
For posted players, it seems like it's never really the team that offers the most money though, it's the team the player feels most comfortable with. Otani could have gotten a lot more money if he wanted to drive up the bidding.
DeleteI'd be excited to land Suzuki. I'd be surprised on Bryant or Castellanos, but they have previously pursued both so it's always possible. Soler if NL goes DH.
ReplyDelete