Thursday, January 13, 2022

Hot Stove Update: Scouting the Outfield Trade Market

Last post we looked at some OF bat options for the Giants on the free agent market.   Here we will look at some potential trade options.  Realistic trade proposals are close to impossible to get right.  There are just too many unknowns and biases involved.  We have very little way of knowing what players may be available in trade, how much their current team values them, how much the Giants may be willing to give up. Then there are own biases which almost always overvalue Giants players and undervalue potential trade targets.  The trade market for OF bats seems rather small.  The two teams most likely looking to dump mid-level salaries, the Reds and A's have mostly pitching available.  With that in mind, here is a short list of potential OF trade targets I've put together.

J.D. Davis, 3B/OF, Mets.  DOB:  4/27/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 215 lbs.  

2021(Mets):  .285/.384/.436, 5 HR, 11.4 BB%, 32.2 K%, 211 PA.

Fangraphs scouting report gives him a 70 for raw power and a 70 arm.  The reason why he is widely believed to be available is the Mets signing of Starling Marte and Mark Canha pre-lockout.  On the other hand, the Mets do not appear to be in a position where they have to trade him.  He is arbitration eligible but not a free agent until 2025 and still has minor league options. Underwent surgery to repair a torn thumb tendon in his left hand early in the offseason.

Brent Rooker, OF, Twins.  DOB:  11/1/1994.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 225 lbs.  

2021(AAA):  .245/.367/.564, 20 HR, 14.2 BB%, 30.0 K%, 267 PA.

2021(Twins):  .201/.291/.397, 9 HR, 7.0 BB%, 32.9 K%, 213 PA.

I loved Rooker coming into the 2017 draft out of college.  He's kind of a RH hitting version of Kyle Schwarber, 3 true outcomes hitter with Fangraphs rated 65 raw power, 50/60 game power.  Played both corner OF positions with the Twins but not well. Value goes way up if NL adopts the DH.  Twins need pitching and may prefer Trevor Larnach in the RH hitting corner OF role.  Not clear Rooker is an upgrade over Austin Dean who the Giants already have on their 40 man roster.

Garrett Cooper OF/1B. Marlins.  DOB:  12/25/1990.  B-R, T-R.  6'5", 235 lbs.  

2021(Marlins):  .284/.380/.465, 9 HR, 12.0 BB%, 27.2 K%, 250 PA.  

May or may not be available for trade.  Arbitration eligible and emergence of younger players may make him too expensive for the Marlins taste.  MLBTR projection for arbitration salary:  $3 M.  Solid Bat with modest L-R split and surprisingly an average to above-average defensive OF.

Wil Myers OF/1B, Padres.  DOB:  12/10/1990.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 207 lbs.  

2021(Padres):  .256/.334/.434, 17 HR, 8 SB, 10.8 BB%, 28.2 K%, 500 PA.

One year left on a contract with scheduled salary of $21 M and an option for 2023.  Padres are thought to be desperate enough to get rid of him to include a prospect in a trade.  Not as bad a player as he's been made out to be and he's historically killed the Giants, but has not earned WAR points commensurate with his salary, thus the widespread hatred.  Giants can afford his salary for 1 year and wouldn't mind having to pitch to him for 19 games per year.  Padres might not want to deal within the NL West.

Mitch Hanigar OF, Mariners.  DOB:  12/23/1990.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 213 lbs.  

2021(Mariners):  .253/.318/.485, 39 HR, 7.8 BB%, 24.5 K%, 691 PA.

Coming off a huge season.   Availability?  Well, everybody is available in Jerry DiPoto's world!  Likely would require a huge haul of top prospects.

Whit Merrifield OF/2B, Royals.  DOB:  1/24/1989.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 195 lbs.  

2021(Royals):  .277/.317/.395, 10 HR, 40 SB, 5.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, 720 PA.

Perennial trade candidate who never gets traded.  Still on a team-favorable contract with the Royals who don't have to trade him but they are in rebuild mode.  Would take a significant prospect haul and he's not really a power bat but also not a great leadoff guy due to relatively low OBP.  Speed is an added dimension, though.

The free agent market probably makes more sense for the Giants.  On paper, Seiya Suzuki looks like the perfect fit with Kris Bryant probably a close second.  There are some intriguing trade options and probably many we haven't even thought of.  I mean, how many of us heard of LaMonte Wade Jr before last season?

1 comment:

  1. Perhaps we needn't say "if there is a DH" — both sides want it.
    If there's baseball in 2022, every team will have a DH.
    At least one pitcher we know will be Bum-ed...

    ReplyDelete