Monday, October 28, 2019

Scouting the Hot Stove League: Giants Pre-Hot Stove Snapshot

We completed our Giants Depth Chart series which is one way of assessing the Giants current strengths and needs for the Hot Stove season as well as Hot Stove Leagues into the future.  The Hot Stove will fire up in earnest as soon as the World Series ends, which could be as soon as tomorrow night, so this will be our tee up for the fun to come.  I'm going to approach this in a similar format to the MLBTR breakdowns.  Contract information comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts Payroll and Tax Tracker.  A reminder that there is a significant difference between salary owed for 2020 and the AAV that gets charged against the CBT.   Here's the breakdown:

Guaranteed Contracts:

Buster Posey:  2020 Salary- $22, 177, 778.  AAV for CBT-  $18, 555, 555.
Johnny Cueto:  2020 Salary- $21 M.  AAV for CBT- $21,666, 667.
Jeff Samardzija:  2020 Salary- $19, 800, 000.  AAV for CBT- $18 M
Brandon Belt:  2020 Salary- $17, 200, 000.  AAV for CBT- $14,560, 000.
Brandon Crawford:  2020 Salary- $15, 200, 000.  AAV for CBT- $12, 500, 000.
Evan Longoria:  2020 Salary- $15, 166,667. AAV for CBT- $11, 165, 000.
Tony Watson(Player Option):  2020 Salary- $2,500, 000.  AAV for CBT- $3,000,000.
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Total:  2020 Guaranteed Salary-  $113, 044, 445.  AAV for CBT- $99,447, 222.

Arbitration Eligible(Estimated Salary per MLBTR)(Salary=AAV for CBT):

Kevin Pillar:  $9.7 M
Kyle Barraclough:  $2.1 M
Alex Dickerson:  $1.2 M
Wandy Peralta:  $800 K
Joey Rickard:  $1.1 M
Donovan Solano:  $1.2 M
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Total Estimated Salary for Arbitration Eligibles:  $16.1 M

Non-Tender Candidates:  Barraclough, Peralta, Pillar.

Doubt Giants will actually offer arbitration to any of these.  Any who don't come to terms prior to the deadline will likely be non-tendered.

Free Agents:

Madison Bumgarner
Will Smith
Pablo Sandoval
Fernando Abad
Steven Vogt
Tony Watson(if he does not exercise his Player Option- see above).

CBT Factors(per Cot's Baseball Contracts Payroll and Tax Tracker):

40-Man Players- Minors- $2,250, 000.
Est. Player Benefits- $15 M.
Projected 40-Man CBT Payroll(including 40-man minors and EPB's above; Excluding Estimated Arbitration Salaries)- $116, 697, 222.
CBT Threshold- $208, 000, 000.
Amount Under Threshold- $91, 302, 778(Note:  you do not have to subtract Player Benefits and Minor League Salaries from this Amount Under Threshold per Cot's).

Hot Stove Priorities:

1.  #1 or #2 SP
2.  #3 or #4 SP
3.  Closer
4.  Upgrade OF offense
5.  Upgrade offense at SS and/or 1B(corollary:  Dump at least one of the Brandons).

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