Another big decision coming right up for Farhan and the Giants braintrust is whether to make a QO to Closer Will Smith. The QO actually went down this year, I think for the first time and is right around $18 M. I looked up the FA contracts signed by Closers over the past 2 years. The closest in AAV is Wade Davis who signed for 3 years with an AAV of $17.3 M. At the time, Davis was considered an elite closer, although cracks were starting to show. If the Rockies had a do-over, I don't think they would sign that contract again but mainly for the length. Other recent AAV's for FA Closers are more in the $10-$13 M range.
Will Smith was arguably the best Closer in baseball last year, but does not have a long track record in the role. Without a QO, his value on the open market would likely fall somewhere around 3/$39 M. A QO is likely to suppress his market value significantly which would make 1/$18 M look quite attractive to him. So, Farhan has to figure if he makes the QO, there is a fairly high probability Smith will accept. I'm guessing Farhan does not want to pay that much for a Closer and probably thinks he can churn one out who will get the job done for a very small fraction of the cost.
Putting all that together, here's my outcome probabilities(rough estimates):
No QO- 60%
QO/Accepted- 20%
QO/Rejected- 20%.
Market alternatives include Cody Allen, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Jeremy Jeffress, Brandon Kintzler and Arodys Vizcaino.
BTW, as a commenter just pointed out in the previous post, teams signing a QO FA no longer lose their top pick but losing second picks was enough to suppress the markets for Dallas Keuchal and Craig Kimbrel last year.
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Smith inarguably became a better pitcher after his TJ: uptick on velocity, much better control, better shape after strenuous physical rehab.
ReplyDeleteNo one knows better than the Giants the condition of Smith's arm: if they deem it good they might get a premier closer for ONE season @ $17.8 Mil, risking 2-3 mil for a known quantity. Signing 3 yrs $39 million is a significantly extended risk, at least $20 mil.
Trading off Melancon and Dyson plus losing Moronta leaves the cupboard bare after Anderson and who? Coonrod?
"I will say kind of at the outset of free agency, we have interest in at least having discussions about those guys coming back," Zaidi said of his free agents. (NBC Sports: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/how-farhan-zaidi-views-madison-bumgarner-giants-mlb-free-agency
Make the offer: the risk is low and SF at least gets a "high" draft pick which they need, especially if they go after Rendon.
Have they thought about Rogers as a closer? Just an idea.
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