My friend, LG, asked this question today in the AQA post. It's a great question and I'm afraid if I answer it in the response post, most readers will miss it. It's such a great question, I decided to turn my response into a separate post. The short answer, in the immortal words of Timmy Lincecum, is $&%# yeah! But let's drill down a bit here.
I am so sick of reading and listening to the false narrative that the Giants and Farhan Zaidi are so hamstrung by all these albatross contracts with no way out until 2022. I am going to start with a simple theorem: The Giants can easily afford a payroll up to the CBT threshold. Now, I'm actually pretty sure they can afford much more than that, but I'm happy to stipulate that it's a good thing for them to not exceed it, at least by more than a marginal amount. BTW, I will use Cot's Baseball Contracts Payroll And Tax Tracker for my numbers.
I'm not sure how many fans realize this amidst all the moaning about all the crippling contracts for the "core", but the Giants actually came in around $30 M under the CBT threshold this season. That is $30 M that got distributed to the owners instead of to players who are better than Connor Joe. Now, I'm as thrilled as anyone that Farhan was able to churn his way to adding Mike Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubon to the organization and that he was able to find such great bench guys as Donovan Solano and Steven Vogt, but nothing about spending a few $ M in the offseason for a decent corner OF and SP would have prevented him from finding those guys. Instead, he threw away the first two months of the season with below-replacement guys like Connor Joe and Icant Rememberhisname playing OF and Erik Kratz as the backup catcher. Had the Giants been even within hailing distance of .500 for those first 2 months, they might have actually led the Wild Card race and the trade deadline might have looked a lot different. But that's water under the bridge at this point.
Again, using Cot's Payroll and Tax Tracker, the Giants are on the hook for just $117 M for 2020. Yes, that is assuming Bumgarner and Will Smith don't accept their QO's and does not count the arbitration eligible players, but it's still a whopping $91 M under the CBT Threshold. For those of you who are curious, here's a list of the Giants arbitration eligible players: Kevin Pillar, Kyle Barraclough, Alex Dickerson, Wandy Peralta, Joey Rickard, Jandel Gustave, Austin Slater and Burch Smith. The only one of those who figures to make much over $1 M is Pillar and he's not a lock to be tendered a contract. In fact, I bet he won't if he doesn't agree to terms before the arbitration deadline. Most of the rest will likely be long gone by the arbitration deadline let alone tendered a contract. So yes, the Giants really do have between $70 and 90 M to work with this offseason. Shark comes off the books after next season then the rest of the core contracts come off after 2021. The Giants are absolutely not hamstrung with bad contracts in either the short or long term. In fact, they are in such great shape they could even afford to just eat 1 or 2 of those contracts and still have plenty left over to spend on new players!
Farhan can spend it any way he wants. Does he want to put half his chips into Gerrit Cole? I'm down for it! Would he rather spread it around on 3-4 mid-range FA's on shorter contracts? I'd be OK with that too. But if he does nothing but churn the waiver wires and non-tender lists, he's cheating the fanbase out of competitive Giants baseball, simple as that! We should be demanding more.
Of course, all of the above is just my opinion.
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I think that the giants should definitely extend a QO to Smith. They should attempt to exhaust all avenues to re-sign Bum. And, I'm sure some might be shocked, but look to deal Yaz this offseason. Perhaps to Boston. Should be easily replaceable and valued high. I'd also look to re-sign Pillar.
ReplyDeletehehe, I had a very similar thought re: YtY. See what Boston would give for him. It would make sense for them, as they're likely losing Betts and Yaz offers a huge marketing boost. So if Farhan can get them to overpay...should consider it.
Deleteand we could also trade DRod to Toronto to add to their collection of famous players sons. Gurrero, Biggio, Bichette, and Rodriguez...imagine the Father's Day promos!
DeleteDoc, thanks for your great insight. Agreed, they are setup nicely this off-season to be more aggressive in trades and free agency to improve the team if Zaidi chooses to do so. My concern is the gap between them and the dodgers is wide, so would it be wise to rebuild again in 2020? I'm not sure if the contracts that you referred to are crippling, but they might be untradable. Zaidi will need to find a taker for Brandon belt for example. Doubt if another 1st baseman would want to sign with SF and split playing time with Belt. We'll see what happens, still can't believe that Melancon trade where the braves are paying his entire salary. Good job Zaidi! Also while Longoria had a good season in 2019, please don't make another trade for an aging vet on a multi year contract! It sounds like Zaidi wants to compete in 2020 after listening to his press conference so we'll see what happens.
ReplyDeleteI agree, dropping $90M on a new IF/1B, a new OFer, and new SP lengthens and adds depth to the lineup and rotation that is sorely needed. Pushing Belt to the bench, and Posey and Crawford down the lineup means "clutch" 7/8 hitters, that also have some OBP and pitch count skills to keep the lineup turning/grinding. Holding onto Posey until Bart is ready seems fine - he's no longer MVPosey, but he is already rostered and provides some value. As does Crawford, who also has experience batting in front of the pitcher. You can hide some 80ish wRC+ down there.
ReplyDeleteSo bring on the HOTSTOVE, I look forward to some moves!