Saturday, May 26, 2018

Scouting the 2018 Draft: Prospects for Giants Second Round Selection

We've spend a lot of time discussing potential prospects for the Giants first round, #2 overall, pick in the upcoming 2018 draft.  Judging from expert analysis and multiple recent mock drafts, it seems they will take Georgia Tech C Joey Bart, unless he Tigers get cold feet on Auburn RHP Casey Mize in which case they will take Mize, unless they are spooked by Mize's medicals in which case they may be looking to cut a below-slot deal with HS RHP Cole Winn.  Got that?  Good, because I'm not sure I'm fully wrapping my head around it!

With that out of the way, lets focus on some players they might pick with their 2'nd round pick, #45 overall.  The Giants historically draft up-the-middle players in round 1.  In rounds 2 and 3, they have tended to go after corner power hitters and pitchers, both college and HS.  Although you should never, ever draft for need at the MLB level(it just takes too long to develop a drafted player and the odds are low anyway), and you should always take the best player available in the first round, it does make sense to start considering organizational needs after round 1.  IMO, the Giants farm system is thinnest at the pitching position.  If they think Joey Bart is the BPA at #2, I'm OK with them drafting him.  They aren't exactly overflowing with catching talent either.  But after Bart, I would be A-OK with them loading up on pitchers in the next 5 or 6 rounds.

The Giants have the added luxury of a very large draft bonus pool.  They can make make an offer their first rounder would be foolish to turn down and still have extra money to add to later picks to sign high ceiling HS prospects who otherwise might be tempted to go to school.

With all that in mind, let's take a look at some players who might be available and signable at their #45 pick in round 2 based on MLB Pipeline's Top 200:

Adam Kloffenstein RHP HS, 6'5", 220 lbs, MLB #44.  Typical physical Texas RHP with a mid-upper 90's FB and a 4 pitch mix.  He is just 17 yo and won't turn 18 until 8/25/2000, so he's got an extra year of physical development on the average HS draft prospect, although he's already huge and may not have much physical projection left.  He's kind of a poor man's Kumar Rocker in terms of present physicality.  Teams may be looking at him in the first round but might be scared off by bonus demands as he is committed to TCU.  This is where the Giants large bonus pool money could come into play.  I would be ecstatic if Kloffenstein was the Giants second round selection.

Sean Hjelle, RHP, College(Kentucky), 6'11", 215 lbs, MLB #45.  Pitchers this tall tend to run afoul of command demons, but Hjelle may be the exception.  He is remarkably athletic for his height and repeats his delivery well.  He has added velocity as his long frame has matured and has hit 96 MPH.  At age 21, there is still a ton of room for added strength and velocity.  He has extreme downhill plane on both his FB and knuckle-curve which is his top pitch.  He's been linked to the Giants at #45 by multiple analyists but a strong junior season may have boosted him into the first round with a recent mock draft placing him with the Dodgers at #30.  He would be a solid, high ceiling pick for the Giants at #45.

Griffin Roberts, RHP, College(Wake Forest), 6'3", 210 lbs, MLB #54.  Griffin's slider has been called the best breaking ball in the draft.  His FB is not too shabby either.  He usually works in the low-mid 90's but has topped out at 97 MPH.  A strong Cape Cod League performance in 2017 and a strong junior season has boosted his stock into the top 2 rounds.  CCL performance is almost a fetish for the Giants, so it would be no surprise if they popped him at #45.  He could be more of a reliever than a starter as a pro.

Seth Beer, 1B, College(Clemson), 6'2", 195 lbs, B-L, T-R, MLB #46.  The Giants like to draft prospects who were previously highly ranked whose stock drops for whatever reason.  As we previously mentioned, they also tend to take corner power hitters in rounds 2 and 3.  Beer burst onto the college scene his freshman season and was once projected to be the #1 overall pick in this draft.  His stock has dropped due to disappointing performances in both his sophomore and junior seasons.   Through it all, he has maintained an almost unbelievably reversed K/BB of 1/2.  Most scouts think he is defensively limited to 1B and DH, but he has played OF in college and the Giants have gone against the grain with a similar player in Chris Shaw in the recent past.

Griffin Conine, OF, College(Duke), 6'1", 195 lbs, B-L, T-R.  MLB #51.  Conine's stock dropped from mid-first round due to a slow start to his junior campaign, but he's a solid hitter with enough athleticism to play corner OF.  His arm is strong enough to profile in RF, but he might have to settle for LF in AT&T Park.  Son of Jeff Conine who was a Giants tormenter during his playing days with the Marlins.  Doubt that would be a factor in whether the Giants would consider him.

Luken Baker, 1B, College(TCU).  6'4, 265 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  MLB #57.  Surprisingly athletic for his massive size.  Make no mistake, this kid can hit and hit for power.   Unfortunately, his sheer size limits him to 1B and he has had trouble staying healthy.  Was a 2-way player in HS and could conceivably return to the mound if the bat is not enough to play given his very limited defensive profile.

Nander De Sedas, SS, HS.  6'1", 190 lbs.  B-S, T-R.  MLB #56.  De Sedas has reportedly had a rough HS senior season which has seen his stock drop dramatically.  While he still has the tools to stick at SS, more scouts are now saying he will likely end up at 3B.  His ceiling is still sky high, but he was always going to be a project and more so now.  IMO, the odds of a second round pick having a significant MLB career are low enough that his ceiling would be well worth the risk, but I highly doubt the Giants would see it that way.

Joe Gray, OF, HS.  6'3", 195 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  MLB #62.  This would be the ultimate upside play, IMO.   Maybe even more than De Sedas.  Gray's ceiling may be higher than De Sedas with possibly less risk.  Gray has power to all fields, a cannon for an arm and is probably fast enough to cover RF in AT&T Park.  Love the combination of size and athleticism.  Much as I think the Giants need pitching in the organization, it would be hard to argue against Gray as the BPA in round 2, if he isn't drafted higher.

In addition to all these names, there are any number of high ceiling HS pitchers who could drop out of the first round due to signability concerns or just because they are HS pitchers.  Giants could use their bonus pool war chest to pop one of them with this pick.

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DrB's Updated 2018 Draft Board:

1.  Casey Mize RHP, College(Auburn).
2.  Joey Bart C, College(Georgia Tech).
3.  Alec Bohm, 3B, College(Wichita St)
4.  Matthew Liberatore LHP, HS.
5.  Kumar Rocker, RHP, HS.
6.  Jared Kelenic, OF, HS.
7.  Brady Singer RHP, College(Florida).

Unless there is something bad in Casey Mize's medicals or unless someone is looking for a seriously under-slot deal, it seems like a lock that he and Bart will go 1-2 with Mize most likely going 1-1.  I've really come around on Joey Bart.  You don't get a chance to draft an all-star catcher every year.  He would be ready about the time Buster Posey's career is winding down.  He seems to have the defensive chops to stick behind the plate in the majors and I love his stance and swing which seems to be very similar to the "Justin Turner" that is all the rage in baseball now.

I would be fine with any of 3-7.  Alec Bohm probably has he highest floor of that group and still has a high ceiling.  Sorry, but I'm still infatuated with Kumar Rocker's sheer physicality.  I'm still not in love with Brady Singer's delivery, but not as down on it as I once was.  He may be the fastest mover in the entire draft.

5 comments:

  1. Don't get why the Tigers are reportedly looking at 4 other options besides Mize, since Mize is the best player. Maybe due to $$ demands? Georgia Tech has produced 2 MLB catchers while Danny Hall has been the coach: Matt Wieters and Jason Varitek. Joey Bart might be the next one. I'd be happy with either one or the other 5 players mentioned. Would like to see them draft either a high ceiling pitcher or position player with their 2nd pick. Take some chances!

    LG

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  2. Covechater brought up an interesting point on Twitter. If the Giants were to take Joey Bart, with experts like Kiley McDaniel predicting him making it to the majors in 2019/2020, where would Buster Posey play? Belts contract runs through 2021 and Busters 2022. We'll find out. Those final mock drafts that come out right before the draft will be very interesting.

    LG

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    1. Buster could play 3rd.
      A college SS at one point, I guess he can field grounders. Good and quick hands, good arm, he'd look as good as Tore did when he went to the hot corner.

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  3. Amazing that Bart would go #2 and Posy went #5!
    There's no comparison between them although they both played 3 years in the ACC.
    Their last year's slash lines (both 21 yo) and career lines:
    Posey 68 G .463/.566/.879 3 yr 195 G .398/.487/.626
    Bart 55 G .368/.481/.651 3 yr 142 G .324/.410/.550
    Only one of the picks before Posey in 2008, Eric Hosmer at #3, has been really good although George Springer came in the 48th round. Who was the 2nd best of the 2008 draft by WAR? Brandon Crawford, of course.
    Kyle Hendrick (39th round) and Tyler Chatwood (2nd round) both came from that draft, too, both selected by LA of A.

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    1. A couple of things to consider when comping Bart to Buster: 1. Florida State's home ballpark is notoriously hitter friendly. 2. There have been major changes in the college bats to make them less lively since Buster played college ball.

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