Ehire Adrianza, SS. B-S, T-R, 6'1", 165 lbs. DOB: 8/21/1989.
AA: .240/.331/.320, 2 HR, 11 SB, 31 BB, 45 K in 250 AB.
AAA: .310/.409/.441, 6 3B, 6 SB, 23 BB, 31 K in 145 AB.
MLB: .222/.263/.444, HR in 18 AB.
VWL: .179/.303/.250, 5 BB, 7 K in 28 AB.
Minor League Career: .254/.334/.356, 234 BB, 403 K in 2118 AB.
Ehire Adrianza's climb through the Giants minor league system has been painfully slow. 2013 was his 8'th season in the organization. He has a reputation as a superior fielding SS with a weak bat. My own take on him is that his bat is underrated. While his slash line has had its ups and downs, he has consistently controlled with strike zone with walk rates in the 8-10% range while keeping his K rates well below 20%. He finally got a MLB callup last year and kind of shocked everybody with a HR off Andy Pettitte in Yankee Stadium. Giants coaches and broadcasters expressed their positive impressions of him as a player and prospect.
The Giants are now faced with a big decision this spring as Adrianza is out of options and must be exposed to waivers before being sent down to Fresno. I don't think there is much doubt that he would get claimed. The Giants have a starting SS in Brandon Crawford with Adrianza, Joaquin Arias and Tony Abreu and possibly others competing for 2 utility IF roster spots.
I suspect that Adrianza is a better defensive SS right now than Crawford and may well have a better bat in the future. IMO, they need to find a way to keep him on the roster, but the decision obviously won't be easy. I am quite convinced that he won't clear waivers as there is more than one MLB team that could use him as a starting SS right now.
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So I guess your last paragraph isn't saying much about Crawford or it's saying that Adrianza can be a pretty decent ML SS.
ReplyDeleteIt would seem they will hold onto Adrianza as long as possible anticipating that Abreu will likely have some sort of nagging leg injury.
What would you do Doc? Deal Arias to the Red Sox? Or ???
You are looking at it wrong, it's Adrianza or Abreu, they aren't dealing Arias, he has a roster spot locked, in my view. And if it's Adrianza or Abreu, I don't see how Ehire don't win that battle given Abreu's difficulties in staying healthy.
DeleteStill, the Giants like to challenge young unproven players and have them win the position, rather than just "give" it to them, only to see them fail (see what happened with BWeez). So Abreu provides that. Also, injuries happen, and if they didn't have Abreu, then they would have to go with unproven Noonan instead, like they did last season. In addition, Sabean noted in one statement that MI's like Abreu is in short supply, so there is always the option to trade Abreu sometime in spring training, assuming all goes as planned that Ehire wins the position. As well, other teams have injuries too, and so might need Abreu then.
My personal preference would be to try to trade Crawford. I believe his value is close to peak. I believe Adrianza would be a current upgrade on D and not much of a downside on O. I also greatly prefer Adrianza long term. Of course, we all know that ain't gonna happen!
DeleteI think either Adrianza or Abreu will be traded near the end of spring training. I hope it's Abreu, but the Giants may well decide that Arias and Abreu as the reserve IF's gives them the best chance to win in 2014 and that is clearly what they are going for, as well they should.
I just can't see Adrianza as a better bat than Crawford. The one thing people forget is that Craw only had 1100 PAs in the minors, and he was rushed to AA/injuries. Ehire by contrast has had 2900 PAs and a career .248 BA across all the levels. Now sure, he's learning in a pro environ while Craw is doing the UCLA thing, that accounts for some of it. But at the highest level things get exposed quick. I'd love to be proven wrong, no doubt, but I just don't see him as a pro hitter, I see him as a 220 guy. The 220 guy knocks around here and there, he isn't a frontline dude. Of course, prospect fatigue is very, very strong in this one.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Shankbone to a certain extent, I guess I'm in-between. I think Adrianza has a better command of the strike zone and thus will be better than Crawford in that way, gaining more walks but I think he'll be better than a .220 hitter, as his ISO has risen as he's gotten older, so I think he'll be able to be at least a mid-200 (.250's) hitter, which with good walks should result in him having a better OBP than Crawford.
DeleteBut Crawford has way more power, so I think things will even out, and they will eventually end up roughly the same offensively, assuming Brandon is all he is right now. But with better defense, that would make Ehire better overall eventually.
But Ehire's not ready yet. I think he'll be on the bench and learn as he naturally add bulk with age, and some time during Crawford's arbitration years, be ready to take over SS. What the Giants decide to do at that point, I don't know, I liked the progress that Crawford made early last season, and if he continued that progress he could be a better overall player overall than Ehire at that point, but Ehire probably would be cheaper for the same production.
For me, the key thing to remember is that he's been young for his level every season, even his first, and yet has had pretty good contact rates as he rose, as well as increasing his ISO (except for known power killer, the EL). He'll be the age Crawford was in his first MLB season, 24, and BCraw didn't hit that well that season, though handled the strike zone well. I think Ehire can beat that batting line that Crawford had, and that they are on basically parallel career paths, barring any breakouts on either's part. But as I noted, I was encouraged by Crawford's early 2013 hitting, and think he could be on the brink of taking it to another level, then it would be up to Ehire to do similarly.
I agree with Shank about Adrianza not having a better bat than Crawford. Although I'm a little more optimistic with his bat. I see Adrianza around his AA numbers maybe with better slugging, triples alley will boost that.
DeleteI'm thinking out loud, but since the giants are a pitching/defensive team, how about trading scoots (yes his bat is still decent and controls the zone but defensively is another story). You start adrianza at SS and shift crawford to 2b (or leave crawford at SSand put adrianza at 2b). Can you imagine those two up the middle? Hudson will feel like he died and went to heaven with those two picking it behind him. In the lineup you can put crawford in the 2nd hole and adrianza in the 8th hole.
Crawford probably has a better bat right now, but I think Adrianza has some upside in his and could be better in the future. It think Crawford is at or near his career peak. I don't think he was moving well at the end of last year and is looking a bit thick in the legs. He also keeps drifting into bad hitting mechanics which are the primary cause of his slumps. I think Adrianza is ready to be a starting SS in MLB right now. The offense would be a bit dicey but the defense is there.
DeleteCrawford didn't have as good a year hitting (nor defensively, I guess) as he was capable of and so, I can see a better Crawford in the future, and if Adrianza can be better than a better Crawford in the future, that's not bad at all.
ReplyDeleteAs with a lot of things in life, nothing is perfect and timing is everything. I hope we can keep Ehire.
Too soon to give up or trade either Crawford or Ehire right now until we figure out what the deal will be with Pablo. We need to find a way to keep all the infield depth we can until that and Scutaro's injury are sorted out.
ReplyDeleteHey Doc, not on topic with this post, but not entirely off topic, but.. are you going to write up a post about Kershaw's mega extension? I'm curious to hear about your thoughts on it.
ReplyDeleteProbably not. It was obviously going to happen for a long time. It just reinforces that the Dodgers do not have an upper limit to their payroll. I think there is a 50-50 chance Kershaw suffers a serious injury before the end of the contract.
DeleteWhy not keep Arias and EA as your back up infielders. Then on days when Scutaro gets a day off or is hurt, you move Crawford to 2b and EA starts at SS. Next year is the last year of Scutaro's contract--if EA and Crawford both hit, there is your infield for years. Not sure what you do about Panik, but a good problem to have.
ReplyDeletePiLamBear