Chris Stratton, RHP. 6'3", 186 lbs. DOB: 8/22/1990
Low A: 9-3, 3.27, 132 IP, 47 BB, 123 K, GO/AO= 1.13.
It's probably too early to call Chris Stratton an enigma, but his pro career has to this point not been typical of a first round draft pick out of a major college program. The Giants drafted Stratton in 2012 after a sensational junior season at Mississippi St. His pitching line that season was 11-2, 2.38, 109.2 IP, 25 BB, 127 K. The Giants decision was probably sealed when he struck out 17 batters the day John Barr was in the stands watching.
Stratton signed that summer and was assigned to Salem-Keizer where he went 0-1, 2.76, 16.1 IP, 10 BB, 16 K. He was also hit on the head by a line drive during batting practice and suffered a season-ending concussion. That may have played a role in his 2013 assignment to low A Augusta for 2013. I have also seen reports that his velocity was down in spring training and that the Giants wanted him to concentrate on developing his two-seam FB as reasons for the assignment. Baggs says it was because the SJ rotation was "loaded", but organizations usually find spots for first round draft picks. His numbers for Augusta were not at all bad, but perhaps they were not quite as dominant as you might expect from player of his pedigree. He did put up a 2.98 ERA in the second half but his K and BB numbers were no more impressive.
From Baggs' BA scouting report, Stratton's two-seam FB sits 89-93, touches 95 and has impressive downward movement. He has a tight slider that serves as a strikeout pitch. I've seen a classic curveball with downward movement in videos from college. Baggs says his curve and changeup are pitches that still need development.
Stratton will probably be assigned to San Jose for 2014 which will likely be an important year in is development path. All in all, Stratton is not a bad guy to have as your organizations 10'th ranked prospect, but you'd really like to see a first round draft pick from a major college program up there challenging Crick for the #1 slot. Baggs has him ranked #3 in BA, so maybe he knows something we don't, but you really can't find it in his discussion.
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Ohhh, he was hit during batting practice. While shagging? Not while tossing BP because why would he be tossing BP? So he shouldn't have really been affected by those come backer demons.
ReplyDeleteHope he has a good year. Sounds like he has nice tilt on that fastball.
From what I recall of the story, he was standing out behind second base and did not see the ball coming. He was not pitching batting practice.
DeleteDavid Lee did speak pretty glowingly of Stratton in his Augusta review... said he probably would have held his own had he gone to San Jose. I can't particularly understand Baggs ranking him that high either, other than using the old mulligan excuse... but it's hard to see that when he was outpitched by two of his Low A teammates in Agosta and Flores.
ReplyDeleteI will say this though: Stratton's 2013 season may not have been what we were hoping for, but I think a lot of us in the blog community (myself included) are focusing a bit too much on what he did poorly. How about looking at what he did well? He took the ball every 5th (or 6th?) day, was competitive in the good majority of his starts, and tossed 6 or more innings in 15 of his 22 starts. Yes, we'd like to see the K's go up and the WHIP go down next season, but he could very well be a prime candidate for a breakout year. My point here is this: looking at his entire body of work, there are many worse things that could have happened for Stratton in 2013. He was healthy and consistent all year long. Hopefully he can improve upon that next season...
Given the fact that he was facing younger, less experienced competition, I actually think the points you raised are negatives for Statton, not positives. If he were dealing with an injury or mechanical problems that made him inconsistent, then there is hope he could be fixed with rest or mechanical tweaks. The fact that he went out there every day, as far as we know was healthy, and just wasn't that good against weak competition is a major problem. Consistency and health are important for major league starters where the performance itself matters, but we're talking about prospects where the most important thing is showing talent.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I don't know the actual facts any better than you do, so maybe there was an injury, a mechanical tweak, coaches asking him to work on his weaker pitches. I just think that given the facts we have now, you're interpreting them backwards.
You can show all the talent you want, but if you aren't healthy or consistent, you probably aren't going to make it as a prospect. My point was that Stratton's season could have been much worse than it was. I understand he did not meet expectations, but this is professional baseball we're talking about. Some guys, regardless of age or experience, take more time to adjust to a league. Stratton was not a very highly regarded college pitcher until his final season at Mississippi State. Maybe he is a late bloomer... But I don't see how you can say I'm interpreting anything backwards when the beat writer who watched him all season gave him a very high review, and even Andy Baggarly (who knows more about the organization than any of us) still believes in his ability.
DeleteI was merely giving a different perspective, one that I think has been overlooked by just about all of us regarding Stratton.
There was info posted here by the brother of a Gints pitching coach with a couple months to go in the season if I recall, basically stating that yes, the Giants are making Stratton work on specific pitches and the specific inside location to help prepare for other levels.
DeleteBut I agree with your main point, you are looking for showing talent, and that would show up in the K/9, BAA and having some dominant performances (the kind that Flores and Gregorio flashed). Stratton didn't have one game where he showed he is boss man #1 SEC pitcher of the year.
Positives: he took the bump every time, lasted at least 5 IP, went past 6 in half his starts and only gave up 5 HRs.
ReplyDeleteNegatives: gave up an extra base hit in all but one game (the game he only lasted 3 IP), only had one 10+ K game (early in the season 4/25 V Hagerstown), Sally hitters put up 258/324/363 against him. 8.2 K/9 for an advanced pitcher with that draft pedigree is just not good enough.
Now we have the concussion issue, and the loss of velocity floating around. And then what the Giants had him working on. But I'd overall I have to say this is a bad season. The guy drafted after him Lucas Sims is hitting top 100 lists and kicked Stratton's tail in straight up comp in the Sally.
I wouldn't be surprised if Stratton is the trade bait this summer. Here's hoping that he turns a corner, gets his velocity and mojo back but this was easily the 2nd worst performance by a Gints farmhand behind Gary Brown's faceplant in the PCL.
Shank, where would you rank Joe Panik's .680 OPS in Richmond season?
Delete37 points below league average. Panik at the disco! 11.4 K% versus 20.1 LA, 9.7 BB% against 9.1 LA. But he's young for the league, there are a ton of repeat guys and old vets (like his buddys Mark M and Javier H for example) who really crinkle all that league average stuff. Last year I said Panik would sink/swim on his K/BB and contact ability. The power has not filled in at all. He is giving up 40 points to the league average in SLG and a 347 ain't cutting it. His ISO is .090 (LA is 132). But power can be the last thing to fill in.
DeleteThe BA is low though. He started very slow (hammy injury affected?) and then heated up, which is similar to what he did in the CA league. I'll tell you what... Mean Bruce Bochy won't take to no slow starting rookie.
But 2B is the position where you can give some rope. There are tons of scrappy scrappers with unusual paths to MLB success. I'll buy the Giants line that he's just a ballplayer gamer guy for a little while longer. Freddy Sanchez only had 17 minor league HRs (and only 48 MLB ones). Then again, Freddy put up this as a 23 year old in the Big Bad Eastern: 326/363/472...
Who would you have drafted instead? I hear Kyle Crick was a real steal. Jackie Bradley Jr. look good in hindsight? Anyone else?
DeleteI was just fine with Panik. Had a nice big laugh at everybody being befuddled on the broadcast.
DeleteI wasn't quite as obsessive as I am now though, I was strictly a know the top 100-150 guys guy. I guess I sort of liked Henry Owens the lefty Boston took but I didn't love him. Its the 29th pick of the draft! Goodwin was mocked to us a lot for some reason. There wasn't a guy I thought was great there. The underrated thing about Panik was that he came in slightly underslot and signed immediately, which paved the way for good bonus games with Andrew Susac and Josh Osich. Sure its not as "big sexy" as some other teams, but that was gaming the draft. The Giants generally follow all of MLB's rules.
The 2011 draft has some big stuff - 2 SPs, 2 big pen arms, maybe more, a catcher, a "utility guy" in Panik, plus Ricky O and a couple of sleepers like Mizenko and Snodgrass. If Bryce Bandilla can stay healthy for a couple months... The Giants should trade him! But he has some serious wipe out stuff, in all seriousness.
The thing that's fun about the Panik draft also: you can comp Joe to Cory Spangenberg at the 10 slot, Kolten Wong at the 20 slot, Levi Michael at the 30 slot and if you want to stretch some the Rays HS SS's Hager and Martin at 32 & 38. Rarely is there a "apples to apples" comp available, but that's pretty close.
DeleteIs that not an advantage to have your 2-seam fastball range from 89 to 93MPH than for it to be 'more consistently at, say, 92?'
ReplyDeleteEven better if the range is wider? If it's done with control, then that makes harder for the batter, unless it's mostly 89 and once a while goes to 93.
I think it's a plus to go +/- a couple MPH on the fastball so the hitter can't get a good read on it.
DeleteBTW, isn't a 4-seamer thrown harder than a 2-seamer? So does that mean Stratton throws harder? Like a mid 90s 4-seamer?
I think Stratton was a tad overrated coming into the draft due to being a one year stud, but that doesn't mean he was a bad pick by the Giants. What I am trying to say is that he was a reliever his first two years at Miss. St and hadn't really been a good or even decent pitcher until his last year there. He went from a possible mid round pick 5-10th round to a first round pick in based solely on his junior season. Which was a great, great season. He saw an uptick in velocity and control that year that hasn't really been able to sustain that velocity increase having to pitch every 5th day like he has to do in the Pros. All that said I still think he just had a bad season (not horrible) and the player the Giants drafted (guy with a mid 90's fastball and wipe out slider) is still in there somewhere. One of the big things already mentioned about his progress is that even though the results weren't there for him he did manage to take the hill every 5th or 6th day and got to work on his secondary pitches all season long. I think that bodes well for him going forward and I still project him to have a 3rd starter ceiling. A guy who can get you a 180 innings with a 3.80-4.00 era.
ReplyDelete