Angel Villalona, 1B. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 260 lbs. DOB: 8/13/1990
High A: .229/.278/.433, 14 HR, 15 BB, 76 K, 284 AB.
AA: .235/.273/.413, 8 HR, 8 BB, 60 K, 196 AB.
AFL: .200/.243/.246, 3 2B, 3 BB, 19 K, 60 AB.
I have to confess that I'm not sure exactly what an enigma is. In a sports context, I've always associated the term with players who seem like they should be better than they are, but nobody quite knows why. Angel Villalona probably fits within that definition. No player in the Giants organization has more power potential than Angel Villalona, yet no player seems less likely to harness its full potential.
I saw Angel play in several games early in the season with San Jose. I love his swing! The swing is short, quick and powerful. When he makes contact, he makes HARD contact! I didn't see any HR's, but I did see several hard, line-drive singles and one shot in particular that went out like a laser beam over the head of the left fielder and banged off the LF wall. I'm tellin' ya. There is toonder in that bat! The problem for Angel is making contact often enough. His pitch selection has come a long ways from when I saw him as a 19 year old in 2009, particularly when he gets to 2 strikes, but he still has a lot of swing and miss in his game.
He started 2013 off strong in San Jose then cooled off. The Giants inexplicably promoted him to AA in the midst of a pretty bad slump. I tend to believe the promotion was more to make room at 1B for Ricky Oropesa, who was struggling in Richmond and the Giants wanted to get him out of there. Be that as it may, Angel's bat came back to life in Richmond and he actually did just as well there as at the lower level. The Giants wanted him to get more AB's so sent him to the AFL. Hopefully that was a learning experience because it was a complete waste in terms of performance.
The question now is where does he go from here? For whatever reason, the Giants felt they had to add him to the 40 man roster before the 2012 season, so unless there is some exception involved, they have 1 more season in which they can option him to the minors before they have to either keep him on the 25 man active MLB roster or expose him to waivers. While I still love his power potential, I do not think there is much of a chance that he improves his contact rates enough in 1 more minor league season to be ready to play at the MLB level. I would say we are looking at a minimum of 2 seasons, probably 3 by which time Angel will be 27, not impossibly old for a power hitter, but what happens in the 2 years he has to be exposed to waivers and is a minor league FA? I don't think his development is going to be helped by bouncing from one organization to another.
This all may be a moot issue if Brandon Belt continues to develop into the offensive force he appears to be on a path for and puts a hammer-lock on the 1B position for the next 5 years. I know Angel V still takes groundballs at 3B, but to my eye I do not see him playing any other position but 1B.
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I feel very similarly. In a perfect world, if the Giants had as much time as they wanted with him, they could let Angel V develop into (hopefully) a productive MLB hitter. But, like you say, that could take years... and the Giants just don't have that luxury with him. So, what to do? I'd have to believe he'll be in Fresno this year, and it would probably be of interest to the organization to give him a look in September (if he's even close to ready). Unless they are truly open to the idea of moving Belt, I don't see how Angel fits the long term plans at all. If that's the case, I wonder if they would consider trading him down the road, rather than risking losing him on waivers when the time comes. They've invested a lot of time and money into him, so you'd think they would at least see what he had to offer at the big league level before his clock runs out.
ReplyDeleteTrade him to an AL team while he still has an option or two. No point keeping him around. I'd bet Chris Dominguez handles the bat better than Villalona.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Villalona can crush cookies, but crushing cookies does not get the job done in the big leagues. Working the count, getting pitches to hit, and situational hitting is what makes a big league hitter. It doesn't sound like Villalona possesses any of those skills.
Vaya con dios, Angel.
I believe there is a place for a bat like Villalona's can become in a good major league lineup. It does take time to develop it, which the Giants may not have, which is too bad.
DeleteNice thing about the AL is they have twice as many spots in the lineup for a guy like Villalona. Try to shake something up with Houston. Pry an interesting AAA outfielder from them.
DeleteAngel V has very little trade value right now. I think they will get more for him if they let him play in Fresno next year and at least appear to be closer to the majors. There may be an extra year of options that we don't know about which buys more time. I don't think you throw in the towel on the bat quite yet.
DeleteSaw him at the Cal League all-star home run derby. The dude has flat out power. A shame that's his only plus tool right now or else he would be a stud.
ReplyDeleteJ
He is a better fielder at 1B than he is give credit for.
DeleteHe very well might be the next Wily Mo Pena
ReplyDeleteWily Mo did hit 26 HR's one year in under 400 PA's
DeleteNot only that, but Wily Mo hit a total of 84 HR's in 1845 PA's. If you count 600 PA's as a full season, he averaged 26 HR's per full season of play. Not saying Wily Mo was a great player but he could hit the dingers.
DeleteI think we all need to be more patient with Vialona. Last year was his first since returning from the DR, and he had some very hot stretches.
ReplyDeleteThat's how I feel too...his first real professional competitive season in many years.
DeleteI can't wait for Jon Miller to call Angel's HRs: "Adios Polotas!" btw, what does that translate to? NV Dude
ReplyDelete"Goodbye ball"
DeleteGood to hear that Angel is still taking balls at 3B. Most recent talk I've seen about him (I think on MLB.com), but also before, noted that he moves well for someone his size, which sounds a lot like Sandoval.
ReplyDeleteI agree that we should be patient, particularly since it was his first year back after many years off. The Giants were forced to place him on the 40-man roster because the MLB did not put him on a suspended list that delays the team's need to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. If they didn't put him on, he would have been available on the Rule 5 draft. Given what he did last season, it seems to me that the Giants made the right decision, there is still something special in his bat.
But whether he accomplishes that with the Giants or not looks problematic right now, I totally agree. He needs probably at least a couple more years, but in 2016 the Giants will probably be forced to either promote him or waiver him, unless the CBA grants them a fourth year option (they do that under certain circumstances, but usually when a prospect is 40-manned early, like Linden was, and they were forced to 40-man Angel and then lost an option year when he could not gain a visa in his first season back with the Giants), which I doubt.
Wily Mo Pena was a nice power bat off the bench for a number of years, so if Angel can do that, that's still valuable, and maybe he can continue to develop with that many ABs given to him, but he would need to be able to play 1B, 3B, and LF to get so many ABs. I still think that Belt's eventual home will be LF, since he has the skills to play there well, which could open up 1B for Angel if he could continue to develop while on the bench. Angel was considered to have a plus glove at 1B in the years before his murder charge, so I expect that he could match Belt defensively at 1B, whereas he probably cannot play LF much and 3B is a huge question mark since he's never played there professionally on a regular basis, even though his stated goal has been to move back to 3B at some point (the Giants apparently wanted him playing 1B so that he can concentrate on his hitting more instead of his defense at 3B).
In any case, if he shows anything in AAA in 2014, I think he will have trade value, but nothing commensurate with what his potential power bat might be. Then it would be up to the Giants to decide what the best course would be, bench or risk waivering him, perhaps right at the end of spring training. Or they could do what they did with Ishikawa, they kept him on the 25-man, but waivered him in the middle of April when most teams rosters were pretty set and was able to get him through waivers, and they deposited him in AAA for the whole season. That would risk it but would reduce the risk, though a team like Houston might bite.
I think the most likely scenario right now is he shows much as he showed in 2013, forcing the Giants to waiver him sometime late in 2014 spring training, in hopes he gets through. I don't think he'll make it through, but then that club is also faced with the same situation as the Giants and he's going to get DFAed sometime in 2014 by that team. He will fall through this time and become a free agent (I think he can do that because it has been so many years since he signed his first contract with the Giants). At this point, I can see him returning back to the Giants as a minor league free agent, kind of like how Vogelsong wanted to be back with the club he's most comfortable with.
I'll concede that the Giants brass is privy to information that we aren't and they do a great job of gauging the market, but it's kind of tough to see Angel V sticking on a 25 man roster for the 2012 season even if he had gotten his visa problems straightened out and been able to play in the U.S.
DeleteSince he was placed on the 40 man roster prior to the 2012 season, the Giants have already expended 2 options on him which means they will have to keep him on the MLB team or expose him to waivers at the start of the 2015 season, not 2016.
Although he moves well for a big guy, he is nowhere near as agile as Pablo Sandoval and I would not compare him defensively to Brandon Belt at 1B.
I have no idea what you are talking about 2012. I don't see where I even referenced the year. I didn't say anything about Angel sticking to the 25-man in 2012. I think you are confusing my mentioning the possibility of trying to pull of what they did with Ishikawa when it comes time to deal with waivering Angel, or you can point out where I went wrong.
DeleteYes, thanks for catching my mistakes on the dating of the decision point, I swear I wasn't drunk when I wrote it, I see that I wavered from one year to another. Yes, the decision point is in 2015 spring training, unless somehow he gets another option added. I've not seen any information anywhere yet on how many options he has. I just tried asking Haft about it, maybe he'll answer it in a future mail box.
Well, as much as I've seen Belt get raves for his defense, all the major advanced defensive metrics only rates him as slightly above average. If Angel is also slightly above average, then he'll be basically the same as Belt and can match him defensively at 1B. RTots has him at -1 run per season, RDrs has him at +5 runs per season and Fangraphs has him at 3.7 UZR/150 (and even last season, his best, was only +7.2 runs), so most do not have him at 1 win per season defensively, and at best half a win per season. So that is the context with which I made my comment of Angel being a match, maybe not exactly a match, but close enough that it is negligible, in my opinion.
And, just to be clear and not misconstrued, I am not saying Angel is as good as Belt offensively, he's clearly going to be a low BA, probably low OBP, but high SLG/ISO, and slow on the bases, no where close to what Belt is like. The question is whether Angel can get his BA high enough that his low OBP is doable and his ISO high enough that his SLG is close to the .500 area (.450+) which is where he probably needs to be in order to be made a starter on the Giants, he won't be better than Belt, but he could be better than the OFers the Giants could play in LF. But at this point, he appears to need more development time than the Giants have options for, which right now appears will be used up in 2014.
I believe you referred to the Giants being "forced" to put Angel V on the 40 man roster. That was before the 2012 season. Really? Maybe they felt they had to based on information I don't know about, but I have a hard time seeing that they were "forced" to put him on seeing as how would have needed to stick all year on some other team's 25 man roster to permanently lose him to Rule 5.
DeleteI know all about defensive metrics. They are still quite volatile for sample sizes of less than 3 years and a lot can happen in 3 years. Belt is a better fielder to the eye test than the metrics give him credit for. Sometimes his awkwardness gets the best of him and a ball trickles under his glove that shouldn't but overall he looks like an above average fielder.
We do not have any defensive metrics on Angel Villalona. After seeing him play several times, I will say he moves better than you would expect for a guy his size which is to say he moves better than, say, Cecil Fielder did. He does not move as well as Pablo Sandoval nor as well as Brandon Belt. I would rate him as more of a slightly below average fielder at 1B than slightly above average based on my own "eye test."
Having said all that, I am still in love with the potential of his bat, but it is still mostly potential rather than reality.
I didn't realize you were talking about another team. My understanding, and you can clarify for me, is that when a player is Rule 5 eligible and he's down in the minors, the other team could just claim him and place him, say, in AA, since advanced A was his highest level attained, and they would never have to give him back. Hence my thought that they were forced to place him on the 40 man or risk losing him. If I got that wrong, I apologize.
DeleteYes, we don't have defensive metrics. What we do have are the scouting reports as he rose through the minors, stating how good he was defensively, and that was the basis of my thoughts. But if you rate him down defensively, from your watching him, then I can accept that, I just don't recall anyone being that down on his defense before and thus thought he was still considered better than average. Even your profile above does not note him being slightly below average defensively.
In any case, I think we both agree that he needs more time than the Giants have to properly evaluate him. And that him bouncing around probably would be to his detriment and could derail his development, good point there, I had not thought about that aspect. I fear in particular Houston taking a flier on him and just putting him on their MLB team and seeing what he can do, and screw him up good.
FYI for everyone, here is a scout's view of Angel: http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article/sf/bernie-pleskoff-giants-angel-villalona-could-offer-impressive-power?ymd=20140110&content_id=66478506&vkey=news_sf
DeleteThis ex-scout reviewed Villalona and noted the following, "He's 6-foot-3, 257 pounds, but he looks bigger. Looks can be deceiving. He certainly is anything but awkward for his size. I saw Villalona play first base exclusively in Arizona. And he played it very well. Villalona is far more agile and far more athletic than his body would lead one to believe. He isn't as quick as 6-foot-3, 235-pound Andres (The Big Cat) Galarraga was in his time, but Villalona can move at first base. He has quick feet. He has quick hands. He made all the plays. He surprised me. His reflexes were outstanding."
Seems to match your assessment that he moves well for someone his size, and maybe can make all the plays, but he did not note him as being special in any way defensively.