The Giants came from behind in a fashion that conjured up memories of last seasons playoff run, ending it, fittingly, with a walkoff hit by Hunter Pence to send everybody into the offseason on a positive note. Key Lines:
Gregor Blanco- 0 for 2, 2 BB, SB(14). BA= .265. Blanco had to be helped off the field after a collision with Angel Pagan on a ball hit into the gap in the 8'th inning. Blanco ended up with a pretty decent season. Hope he's back next year....as a reserve OF.
Francisco Peguero- 1 for 1, HR(1). BA= .207. Peguero would not have even gotten in the game had it not been for Blanco's injury. He ended up hitting the game-tying HR off a pretty good MLB closer, Huston Street.
Tony Abreu- 2 for 5, 2B. BA= .268. Abreu hit .390 over his last 10 games. I don't think you can count on him to stay healthy as a starter, but he is a very dangerous player when healthy. I would think he is well worth keeping around. Lots of potential reserve players to sort through this offseason and some very tough choices.
Brandon Belt- 2 for 3, 2 2B, BB, HBP. BA= .289. Huge finish to the season for Belt. Can he carry it over into next year for a true breakout?
Hunter Pence- 2 for 5. BA= .283. I think Dave Flemming was right in his postgame comments. This was a statement game for Hunter Pence and set a tone for next year. It was like, this is the guy you just signed up for the next 5 years. Here's what he's going to give you!
Pablo Sandoval- 2 for 4. BA= .278. Pablo ends the season on a positive note. He ended up hitting .294 for the second half. Let's see what he can do in his walk year.
Brandon Crawford- 0 for 2. BA= .248. Brandon Crawford left the game with an oblique strain. He struggled down the stretch. One thing I noticed in the last couple of games is he has fallen back into a bad habit he's had in the past. He lets the bat drift down until it rests on his shoulder then brings it up as the pitcher is delivering the pitch. He's not getting it up in time and it's making him late on fastballs and leaves him no time to adjust to different locations and speeds. Get that bat up there, Brandon!
Guillermo Moscoso- 4.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 5.10. Moscoso came out like he was going to pitch a shutout, striking out the first 2 batters and getting the 3'rd on a weak grounder. He gradually lost command as the game progressed and by the 5'th inning he was clearly gassed. He actually pitched much better than the line indicates as he was robbed of a called third strike that would have been out #2 in the 5'th. He left the game with the bases loaded and Dunning came in and served up a grand slam HR to Jedd Gyorko.
Heath Hembree- 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 0.00. Hembree finishes with 7.2 shutout innings in 9 appearances. I think it's safe to say a roster spot is his to lose next spring.
Barry Zito- 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 5.74. In what was probably the final batter of his Giants career, Zito face Mark Kotsay in the final AB of his career. Zito got the best of that matchup and several ovations from the fans.
The Giants finish the season tied with the Padres for 3'rd place in the NL West. After tie-breakers and compensation picks come into play, they will have the 14'th pick in the 2014 draft unless they sign a free agent who receives a qualifying offer.
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DrB, any predictions for Belt's line next year?
ReplyDeleteNo predictions. I think he will most likely still have his ups and downs, but will continue an upward trend. I do think there is the possibility of a breakout season with .320+ BA with a 500+ SLG%. That is a lot to ask, though, so not going to predict it.
DeleteI think he is over .300 BA and .500 SLG, plus in the 900 OPS region (.875-.925) with over 20 homers, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's .320+, .400+ OBP, .550+ SLG, and 30+ homers. I think he's that close to breaking out big time, but like DrB, not predicting it either, as even in his breakout late season, after that hot streak, he hit well but not great during that last stretch, not hitting that many homers. Plus, one sign of a breakout is hitting a lot of opposite field homers, and Brandon only has two of them this season. So I would expect a consolidation year in 2014 where he has less downs, and not as severe, and maybe look to 2015 as a more possible breakout year.
DeleteYou guys are crazy. Not that you think Belt may break out, but in your standards for a "break out." They guy ended up as the best hitter on the team and the 6th best 1B in baseball. He already broke out. The numbers you're throwing out as a "true breakout" would put him in the top 10 hitters in all of baseball.
DeleteWell, I do think Belt has a chance to be a top 10 hitter in baseball. This was a down year for first basemen, so being the 6'th best at the position ain't quite what it used to be. Also, the term "best" is a subjective and imprecise term. Belt had the highest OPS on the team, but Hunter Pence was clearly the more productive hitter. Now, you keep all rest of Belt's numbers the same and add 10 dingers, that would be an elite hitter and a true breakout. I think he is capable of that.
DeleteBelt had a good season, but if there is not more in the tank, I think a lot of us would be disappointed.
A proven left fielder and a couple of SP's and I think they their shopping list is done for next year. I think the bench is good with Blanco, Perez or Pegs, Arias, Abreu and Sanchez, maybe shuffle the relievers a bit but I don't think there is much to do really. Weird to think though based on the year they had but I really think they are that close.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's that weird.
DeleteThis is a team with pretty much the same personnel (I won't use these words: 'it is pretty much the same team') as one that won it all last year. So, it should be a solid team at the minimum.
I think the result might have been different had we had a solid #3 starter. Then it would have been Bumgarner, Cain, solid #3, Lincecum and Vogelsong with Gaudin as #6. As it turned out, with 3 guys struggling and, I admit it's a conjecture, Cain caved in to that pressure, we never had even decent pitching. That and injuries to our bats ended the season early, making now, starting today, the most exciting period of the whole year. Hopefully, we won't risk losing another year, until help arrives in 2015, for lacking a solid #3.
I think the whole pitching staff suffered from the short offseason and an accumulation of innings over the last 3 seasons, except Bumgarner who is still young and freakishly strong.
DeleteSame here....A big bat for LF/1B..Plus two starting pitchers (whether Timmy is one is one of the huge questions)...Maybe I'm a polyana, but I just don't think this team is anywhere near as bad as it's record....So many things added up....The long season the year before, the WBC, things never totally synchronizing in a positive way, an out of shape Panda the first half, an injured Scuturao and especially PAGAN the second half, and, just plain and simple, the performance and mental focus wasn't there after the three previous years.....Hopefully, this will be a reset and refreshed squad next year...
DeleteBut, SABEAN, still talks about the need for better talent.. Where is he gonna put that other then 1B/LF and a SP spot?....is that all he's talking about? Somebody mentioned the bench up above and it could be pretty solid, but still without needed power (you might get 10 home runs out of Perez, Blanco, Arias, Adrianza, Abreu, even Pill)...There has to be a Power bet off the bench, and Pill isn't it...
OTOH, I don't see the Giants chasing ANY Bullpen arms...Just hope an Affeldt and Casilla are more back to normal...Locks such as Romo, Casilla, Affeldt, and Lopez...And so many candidates for the remaining spots-- Hembree, machi, Dunning, Rosario and others...
We'll see how much Sabean upset the applecart...
SteveVA
Cain didn't cave into any pressure, he's not been the same since his Perfecto last season, his PQS performance showed that until the last two months (or roughly one year afterward), Cain was good but not great like he was before, but then he started being great again to end the season. With extra rest, he should be that much better next season, side by side with Bumgarner, it will be like Spahn and Sain and pray for rain all over again.
DeleteA solid #3 we got in Gaudin, until his injury/condition took him out. Also, we had decent pitching, but mid-season we had awful offense because of injuries and players coming back from injury and not performing well, plus I think some players (Blanco) caved to the pressure of the lack of offense. It was our very poor hitting that cost us all those losses in June/July, not poor pitching (though it was not as great as it was in prior seasons, it was still OK; it was the offense that stunk).
Sabean said in his presser that getting another starting pitcher is a key goal of the off-season, so the Giants appear to understand the need for a #3 starter. Maybe they can sign Kuroda?
Bumgarner's strength just reminds me of how well kids who grew up in farming communities, like Bob Feller, seemed to do in baseball with great strength.
The team was not as bad as it's record, it was a confluence of injuries to key hitters and poor performances in the middle of the season that cost the Giants this season, June/July. The performance was there in April/May, but then the injuries started piling up, Pagan, Scutaro, Crawford (he was one of our best hitters early on), and Sandoval. Then players started getting cold, Blanco, Posey, Pence, and that just screws up almost your entire lineup. The team ended the season on a good note, having most of their top hitters back plus good pitching to boot, they ended the season 20-14, and were 28-22 to start the season. That 48-36 record would have translated to a seasonal 92-93 win season.
DeleteBetter talent comment, I think, includes what would have happened if Pence got away and we were stuck signing a lesser OF for RF (assuming the Giants don't want to lose their first round draft pick). That also includes getting that additional starting pitcher that he talked about, even if Lincecum signed back with the club.
For power off the bench, I think the Giants are hoping that prospects start stepping up.
Yeah, bullpen seems pretty set. Assuming Lopez is signed, that's Romo, Casilla, Affeldt, Lopez, then probably Hembree and Machi, plus the long-relief guy, probably Moscoso, unless Gaudin can have a miracle, from the way DrB presents it, carpel tunnel syndrome is like a deathknell to his career (my interpretation of what DrB said). Dunning will get another year in AAA to sharpen things up, but the Giants clearly likes him. Kontos will be battling Machi for a spot, and could win the spot back by returning to his form in 2012, and he could be one of those affected by the shortened off-season, but we will have to see, for Machi pitched pretty well. Hembree, I agree, got a spot to lose, much like Wilson (who blew his chance and ended back in AAA that season). The Giants do love their strikeout pitchers.
I don't see Sabean upsetting the applecart much. He's not doing anything with Pagan, Pence, Sandoval, Crawford, Scutaro, Belt, Posey, I don't think. I think offers for Sandoval will be too low to not try to see how he does once he gets himself into shape, so I don't see a trade happening. Bullpen, as noted, is set, and the rotation is the major area of change, but it would surprise me if he did anything beyond signing a #3 starting pitcher free agent and re-signing Lincecum plus picking up Vogelsong's option (particularly in light of Baer's statement about treating their players right, there will be no renegotiation to get a lower value, I don't think).
For Sabean also made the point that prospects will need to step up. I see that for #5 starter plus if Lincecum does not sign. I see that for 1B/LF. I see that for Hembree in the bullpen.
Of course Cain did not cave in to pressure.
DeleteIt didn't help though with everyone, that is Zito, Lincecum, Vogelsong, not pitching well except Bumgarner.
OGC - We pretty much agree on the performance of the team...Afterall, they were like +10 or +11 with a healthy Pagan....So, maybe not upset the applecart too much, but I think he would be foolish to not get a solid bat for LF..and a bench bat with some pop the can nowhere be supplied by what is in the organization. I think it will get done...
DeleteThe pitching part scares me more..and I hope the heart doesn't over-rule the head..no way in Hades would I Pick up Vogey's option...Just too much age and uncertainity...I have no problem re-signing him at a lower contract to compete for a 5th spot or bullpen spot..Business is business...Unfortunately, Lincecum is some risky business...I'll be honest, I don't know what to do with him...He is now a .500 4.00 ERA pitcher with some sparkling highs and troubling lows, how much money and faith do you put in that if you want to win the WS....Sounds like the Giants are ready to resign him, and I'm OK, but I'm afraid of what the dollars and years (two would be perfect) might be.,.
SteveVA
Timmy is either Good Timmy or Bad Timmy. We need more consistency. The Giants faith in him being able to provide that, keep on improving with the 90 MPH heat, that's pretty interesting stuff. I think they max out at something like 2/40MM or 3/45MM, and part of that is emotional or unique marketing value that is only good for the Giants. In other words, Dave Cameron and the WAR crowd can have some more fun.
DeleteI didn't quite say the CTS is a death knell to Gaudin's career. What I said, or at least intended to say, is that most CTS cases ultimately require surgery to relieve the impingement and if you wait too long you can get permanent neurological deficit. I do not know enough about Gaudin's specific case to give him a prognosis.
DeleteI'm calling a 25 homer, 25 steal season for Perez with at least a .290 average.
ReplyDeleteNot gonna happen.
DeleteLOL!
DeleteOne the other side of the reality coin, I'd definitely agree that Perez is the undisputed choice for minor league promotion. Great speed, great D, great arm, good bat with decent XBH ability. Plus, the kid is a gamer, great energy out there.
Hembree, Dunning and Perez are guys who should be with the GMen next year. The right side of the pen will be relatively well set with Casilla and Romo otherwise. Left side is in trouble with only Affeldt as solid. I don't see the Giants signing anyone for more than a year there. We have guys in the minors coming up there too.
DeleteAbreu might make the squad, since Noonan didn't really do anything. Arias, if he wants to come back, should be the other lock. EA also looked good as a defensive substitution, but we only really have 4-5 backups. If Perez, Abreu and Arias, along with Hector, you'd only have one other spot. Pill would probably be the most likely candidate since he can play OF too. Not sure Blanco makes the squad since I think Perez is just as good.
I'd be fine with (a) Giants using mostly home grown guys as backups and (b) having EA start at Fresno to see if he can continue his hitting.
PiLamBear
There is definitely a logjam forming up now. IF like you say, Arias, Abreu, Noonan, Adrianza, Pill. OF with Blanco, Perez, Peguero, Kieschnick. You have 9 guys for 4 spots. Pill and Perez can fake IF/OF capability.
DeleteThen there is the have to be on the 25 man requirement for some of these guys. Adrianza is one of those guys, you have to sneak him through and there may be some teams watching... and judging.
In the pen Hembree looks like a nice hard throwing complement to the right side. Left side might have Lopez back (eating into the precious budget) to complement Affeldt. Mijares too? He'll cost at least 3MM if they keep him. Kickham might be able to sneak onto the 25 as a long man/LOOGY but then you're giving up on him as the high value SP.
I'll be sad if he leaves, but I really think Lincecum would benefit from going to another team that can sort out his mechanics and help him gain some of that fb velocity back. Around the middle of my sophomore year of college, my fastball dropped started sitting around 88-89 on the radar gun after sitting about 92-94 just a month or so earlier. Then my pitching coach made a very slight change in my motion beginning of my junior year, and what do you know, I was cruising at 92-94 again and touching 97. I still walked about 5 guys per 9 IP and gave up almost 10 hits per 9 IP, but hey, it was better than where I had been before.
ReplyDeleteA.B.V.
I don't pretend to know what all goes into velocity, but MLB pitchers typically have a downward trend as they age. Timmy will be 30 yo next year. It would be unusual for a pitcher to regain significant velocity after age 30.
DeleteI do think Timmy made some progress this season and I think a lot of it was related to an improved diet and conditioning program. As long as he continues to take care of his body better, I think he can be better next season.
The longterm problem for Timmy, IMO, is that his delivery requires a great deal of flexibility. Timmy is famous for his ability to do gymnastic moves which is directly related to his flexibility. How many gymnasts do you see performing at a high level after age 20 let alone age 30? I could be wrong, but I suspect that declining flexibility is and will continue to be Timmy's decline as a MLB pitcher.
Does anyone know what is going on with Peguero? He has been on the 40 -man for 4 years, and the Giants will either release him for put him on the 25-man next year. I was surprised with the lack of ABs for him. Perez has earned his, about Roger K, did not do much. They should have some expectations, otherwise they would have released him.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what the plans for him are.
He has a lot of talent. But the knee surgeries have been hard on his development path. That HR was nice, but he's generally been a singles hitter. Who doesn't walk much, and doesn't really fit in CF. Then he's a tweener.
DeletePerez is doing what the Giants want to see - making the best of his opportunities and making plays. And, if you want to believe the old saw about not understanding OBP, taking his hacks like a man!
Perez has certainly used his chances. That is why I was "he earned his time."
DeletePeguero sounds like a 4th OF. He was impressive in the spring training, he started the year great in Fresno, but was hit by a pitch on the head, which slowed him down. If teh Giants rank him behind Perez and K, there is no point of keeping him on the 40-man. But they did not release him, so apparently they have some expectations. We will wait and see, I guess.
Ugh on Napoli: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/free-agent-profile-mike-napoli.html
ReplyDeleteAll the sources note $5M for him, but leave out the fact that with bonuses, he earned the $13M he was originally going to get in his first deal, and he earned it. OK, I'm not so interested in him anymore.
Uh, I think that's pretty much what I've been trying to tell you, ogc. Mike Napoli ain't coming here!
DeleteHe's gonna get paid some. Peter Gammons just tweeted that the Red Sox should trade for Sandoval and use the same physical therapist as they did with Napoli... I'll take that one as humor though.
DeleteI was very impressed with Perez. I think he makes Blanco expendable. I have always liked Blanco but he had a great chance and just did not hit enough. The Giants have put a lot of time and effort into Adrianza, he will either br on the 25 man or will be traded because there is no way he is going to clear waivers.
ReplyDeleteHold your horses. Perez only played in 34 games and 89ABs yet. He was impressive and I am very hopeful. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.
DeleteHonestly, if the Giants obtain a LF/1B as they should (because there are zero decent internal options), Perez and Blanco are almost redundant..And carrying both would also deprive the Giants of a power bat off the bench (I'm not buying Pill)--just like this year..
DeleteSteveVA
I'm not saying Perez should be a starter but should be the 4th OF. His bat looks better than Blanco's.
ReplyDelete