Thoughts on Buster Posey's Future

Buster Posey is a very good baseball player.  So good that he won an MVP award in his 3'rd MLB season leading his team to a World Series Championship in the process.  Not a small part of what makes Buster so valuable is the position he plays.  Catchers who can hit like him and play good defense in the process might be the rarest commodity in baseball.

The Giants know full well just how valuable Buster is and made sure he would play under their banner for most, if not all, of the rest of his career.  They committed themselves to paying him a lot of money to accomplish that, $167 M over 9 years(2013-2021 plus a club option for 2022 to be exact).  That is a lot of money for a long time!

The problem for Buster and the Giants, and part of the reason Buster is so valuable as a catcher, is that catching is not just a physically demanding position to play.  It is a physically dangerous position to play.  Buster himself has already had one career threatening injury and a whole multitude of lesser dings and dents along the way.  While you can find examples of catchers who remained productive over a long period of time, baseball history has many examples of catchers whose careers were cut short or became less productive due directly to injuries suffered in the line of duty.

We have witnessed a marked decline in Buster's offensive output over the second half of this season.  While we cannot be sure of the reasons for that, it seems likely that it is tied to catching too many games in the first half as well as nagging injuries such as the foul tip that fractured the tip of his right 4'th fingertip a few weeks ago.  Buster is a big man, but he is not particularly big for  catcher.  He also does not have a typical catcher's frame.  This may leave him more vulnerable to injury and fatigue than most catchers.

Buster Posey can also play other positions.  He played all 9 positions in one game once while in college.  In the pros, he has only played 1B as a secondary position.  He plays first base adequately, but not particularly well.  He has hit better when he plays first base than when he catches, and his hitting is certainly more than adequate for a first baseman, but it is not an elite level of hitting for that position as his hitting at catcher is.

Buster could well play another 8 years at catcher without suffering another serious injury.  He could also move to first base and suffer a career ender.  The probabilities are, however, that he is more likely to get injured playing catcher than playing first base. Aside from a serious, career-ending injury, he would not be squatting or taking foul tips off his mask or hands on a daily basis while playing first base.  The probabilities favor him maintaining or improving on his offensive output if he is at first base than at catcher.  Of course, he could move to another position where his bat might be more valuable than first base, most notably third base, but we have yet to see him play there.

I think everybody pretty much agrees that Buster is not going to stay at catcher for the full length of his contract. The question is how urgent is it to make a decision to move him off the position.  Since injuries can happen at any time, each day that Buster stays at catcher carries a risk of that being the day his career effectively ends rendering the remainder of his contract a sunk cost.  The decision for the Giants comes down to whether they want Buster to be more valuable at the front end of his contract or more valuable at the back end, with some risk that if they take the first option, you could lose the back end entirely.  What I think is also clear to everybody is that if Buster does continue to play catcher, he will need to catch fewer games, thus diminishing his positional value anyway.

In evaluating all of the above information, I favor moving Buster to first base full time next year rather than risking another season with him behind the plate.  Really, the Giants have already made their decision, or should have.  If the strategy is to maximize Buster's value at the front end of his career, then it would have made more sense to go year-to-year during his arbitration years and not take on the risk of the long term deal.