Zack Wheeler was wild and looked tired as the Giants outwalked and outscored the Mets. Key Lines:
Angel Pagan- 3 for 3, 3B, HR(4), 2 BB. BA= .289. Pagan reached base 5 times and was a double away from a cycle. He's hitting .412 over his last 10 games and the Giants are 11-7 since his return from the DL. They were in first place the day he pulled up lame after the inside-the-parker.
Brandon Belt- 2 for 5. BA= .290. Belt is hitting .357 over his last 10 games. Strangely, on a night when the Giants drew 10 walks, he didn't draw any.
Yusmeiro Petit- 6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 1 K. ERA= 3.08. I'll give Petit some props for hanging in there after a very rough 4'th inning when he uncharacteristically lost control of the strike zone, walked the first 2 batters and paid the price. Overall, he still threw 58 of 87 pitches for strikes. I think that's pretty good, but I'm not sure.
Matt Cain tries to extend the Giants win streak to 5 facing Aaron Harang tomorrow evening.
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Good game. Maybe the Giants are starting to build some momentum for 2014?
ReplyDeletePagan's spark at the top of the line up surely has been missed this year. Glad to see it back.
So, I don't know if anyone else sees this, but has Belt changed his upper body stance some? I mean, in a way different from the grip change and where he stands in the box. It seems to me he is holding his hands further away from his body, kind of how Marco Scutaro does. I don't think he had his hands like that when he first made changes to his stance. I do wonder what has happened to the home run power he had started to show in August (he went almost 100 ABs without a HR until this past Saturday).
Vin Scully went into some detail about Belt's changes. I am still a bit confused as to what exactly "wrapping" is. I always thought it was bringing the bat way up behind your ear and neck to start your swing. Then, the explanations we saw after his "vacation" was that it had to do with positioning his hands on the bat. Scully seems to think it was more the former and he is now holding his bat lower and away from his body as you just pointed out. Maybe it's some of both?
DeleteI don't know what it is. I just know he is holding his hands further from his body at the moment, something he didn't seem to be doing the first few weeks he was really really hot in August. I'm wondering if the change has affected his power at all. Belt definitely could get a little more consistent in the HR department.
DeleteBelt looks to finish his best season yet.
ReplyDeleteCan we look forward to his building upon this year's work to even more productive years ahead, like starting 2014?
Hope so. He's a tall, gangly guy. I think he will continue to have ups and downs in his swing mechanics.
DeleteBelt finished last season in a similar up-swing, but could not continue from he had stopped at the beginning of this year.
DeleteYet, he is a young player, and it is a fair assumption that he will get better.
In short, I am optimistic that he will be better next year than he was this year, but we cannot get carried away by looking at only after August. I am sure he will have a slump next year, too, and I am hoping that 1) he will be able to snap out of it more quickly; 2) he will find ways to be more productive (advance runners instead of K) even when things are not going his way.
I think he will be fine.
I basically agree with KeiserSose's points (and DrB), but would point out that Belt was one of the team's top hitters from mid-April to mid-July, a good 3 month period, so it was not like before where he was wildly inconsistent week to week, month to month. He had one really bad spell to start the season, then at the end of July. He was very good about avoiding the bad spells this season, at least relative to last season. And looking beyond all that, his .842 OPS overall is pretty good period.
DeleteWhile I would not assume that his late season run is the future, I would say that it is his expected future if he develops the way we hope he does, and represents his ceiling, a Votto-type of hitting monster. At minimum, he hit .289/.364/.490/.854 during that three month run of good hitting (ups and downs, but mostly good) so I would put that as his floor, and darn if that isn't a pretty good floor.
I think he will continue to improve, making his late season run more his norm than the .854 OPS, which is good on its own. That is why I think it is urgent for the Giants to sign Belt to a long term deal now, while he'll be happy with a big long-term deal, whereas engaging him in arbitration, especially if he gets consistent next year, will put our budget into a big world of hurt.
Once again! The Giants will be just fine, now and in the future with or without a contract extension for Brandon Belt! Sigh!
DeleteBTW, ogc. A contract extension for Brandon Belt seems like it would be a great topic for your blog.
DeleteNew ways for Brandon Belt discussions to overheat! Sweet!
DeleteA new front in the Belt Wars! LOL!
DeleteAt this point, I didn't realize that I had angered you, so yes, I'll be sure to bring my opinions to my blog. I still don't understand, but whatever.
DeleteAngered is not really the right word. Annoyed is a better way to describe it. Maybe I don't understand it either. That's just the way it hit me and it's not getting better the more I think about it. Time to move on.
DeleteOn second thought, I guess it's just that I fail to see how a contract for a player who we already know is going to be on the team for the next 4 seasons belongs in a discussion with preventing the loss of the guy who might be the current best player on the team, upgrading LF and rebuilding the pitching staff.
DeleteI'm not saying a contract for Belt is the wrong thing to do or that the Giants won't do it. It's just not going to make one iota of difference on the field. It's just not!!
OK, now that I've said it for at least the 5'th time, TIME TO MOVE ON!
Good points about Pagan...The Giants were (I think) 32-52 betweehn the day he was injured and the day he played his next game.....With Pagan, they are something like +9 in wins over losses...I know the starting rotation had it's issues also, but hard to win when you only have 1 good OF (Pence) in the lineup and are missing the leadoff man......Bad year for the Giants , but it can EASILY be turned around next year.
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Totally agree. Some people are advocating that the Giants should spring for a better LF, but I think that with a healthy team in 2014, we can easily turn it around plus leave an OF position open in case one of our AAA OF's suddenly see the light and start hitting like they have shown in the top minors. It was all the injuries - Pagan, Vogie, Scutaro, Crawford, Sandoval, Casilla, Affeldt - that crashed the team into last place, we were fighting for first place the last time the team was healthy overall, when Pagan went down.
DeleteOGC - The only area where we disagree is that i don't think the Giants can put ANY trust in Blanco or their AAA/AAAA OFs (I am not high on any of them) to man LF next year...it's too big a risk...But they should be able to sign/trade for (yes, pitching prospects )a LF or a 1B/C (with Belt moving to LF)....I also think they will pay whatever it takes for Pence...
DeleteThe more iffy stuff to me is Lincecum, Vogelsong , whether to sign them or not, and how many outside STARTING pitchers to target...I'm kinda partial of trying to sign Timmy to a two year...decline Vogey and MAybe sign him at a lower value (SP/RP), and go after ONE good FA pitcher (MLB FA or Japan (2 possibilities I have read about))
Should be a very interesting off season and I think Sabean will be up to it.
SteveVA
OGC,
DeleteGot to disagree on, "It was all the injuries...that crashed the team". Really? Every team has them. And every team has to overcome them, or not.
I think rather it was the piss poor starting pitching, the foundation of the Giants, that came crashing down this year. Zito = done. Timmy = average at best, ugly when worse. Cain has not regained his steady form since his Perfect Game. Voggie was awful until injured and only good to the 5th inning now. Madbum, stud.
Agreed, when Pagan went down the offense really went south, but the pitching was already crashing by then.
The Giants success going forward will be largely determined by their starting pitchers.
Piss poor starting pitching, piss poor defense. Right there, you've turned the two strengths of the club to bad juju. Then you add in Fat Panda, who really has a big roll in all of this as well. Then the on-off again with the hitting, everybody going south at once for that June Doom. But the pitching is the biggest thing.
DeleteCan you count on Timmy? I'm not sure. Vogelsong is a year older as well. I'd like some new blood to supplement, and then see where you are. A solid #3 ties the room together. The biggest thing the Gigantes can do this year is get another SP. Tanaka-San? Go compete with 10 other clubs for the rights? I'd say that would qualify as big-baller and would keep me quiet about the RDF for another 6-9 months.
The pen needed some work too btw, but they decided not to reinforce failure (cuz hey, this is a Zack Wheeler post and all... a little credit is due here, the farm is deepened by no-trade activities)
We can use a dominant starting rotation in 2014.
DeletePersonally, if trying to win the West next year is the goal, I think strengthening the Starting staff is as important as picking up a Power Bat to go along with Pence's reupping..or visa versa..If you want to win, you do both....You take care of only one, it will be another season of falling short...Hopefully the Giants have the desire and/or money to do both....
DeleteLeave the bullpen alone and add to it from within (Hembree)..6 of the 8 postion player (Posey, Belt, a rested Scutaro with maybe Arias backing him up), Crawford, a hopefully dedicated Panda, Pagan...compliment that with Pence and an equally potent bat, it's the best you can do..
The pitching questions are harder but I think the Giants try to go with Lince for say two years....But very unsure....Too bad we can't fast forward about two years when quite a few arms could be ready..
SteveVA
Since this a Wheeler thread, as it is called, I think it's appropriate to bring up.
DeleteSabean is better than your average GM. And one can't talk about him in totality.
If you want to say he made this or that good trade, you have to mention his bad trades as well.
Conversely, if you want to talk about his bad trade, you have to list his good trades as well.
He did great with Pagan and J. Lopez, for example.
With the Wheeler trade, we have our likely next Wheeler (or better), but a little late perhaps. We could have used him this year. I did not like the trade then and don't now, on several fronts. On timing, it leaves at least a one or two year gap. On total dominance, it means further dreaming of one more power ace...because you always want more.
Sorry, one can only talk about him in totality.
DeleteYou can go back and check my posts at the time of the Wheeler-Beltran trade. I said the Wheeler was a future #1 or #2 starter and Beltran was likely a 2 month rental. I supported the trade then because of the circumstances. Not gonna change in retrospect because it is playing out almost exactly as I predicted at the time, except Wheels has yet to prove he is a frontline starter for the long haul. He certainly has the potential to be, although I was surprised his velocity was not higher last night.
DeleteYes, the pitching has been inconsistent this season, but we are talking crashing. The pitching had ERA's by month of 3.62 in April, then 4.59, 3.86, 4.43, 4.09 and 3.21 so far this month. That's not crashing at all, they were good to middling for the most part.
DeleteThe offense started off with 4.51 until Pagan's injury. That's not quite the 4.97 they had in Sept 2012, but Posey wasn't hitting for much either. Then the succession of injuries, Pagan, Scutaro, Crawford, Sandoval. And while the latter three has played much of the season, all of them had suffered long periods of poor hitting in the recovery from the injuries.
That was the crash. They averaged only 3.4 RS from Pagan's injury to end of June, 3.1 RS in July. That is what killed our season. The pitching was average to good at times. It was this poor offense that killed our playoff chances.
So all the losses were from the offense mostly, the pitching while up and down, we would have had winning records most months scoring 4.5 runs per game. Even a 4.0 RS average would have probably kept us near .500 at least. And the defense has really hurt them mostly in the early season, in terms of errors and unearned runs, when they had 13 unearned runs in April and 11 in May, it has been single digits since. And their Defensive Efficiency, while below average, is not close to the bottom of the league either. And their advanced defensive metrics basically place them at average defensively, not gaining much but not losing much either, overall.
No, it was the offense that caused that black hole of losing in June and July that sunk our season.
I'm still OK with the trade. You roll the dice when you are that close to getting into the playoffs, you don't know what the future holds. And the Giants have replaced him, he had 17 starts with 3.42 ERA so far, Gaudin had 12 starts with 3.53 ERA.
DeletePlus, I didn't think that much of Wheeler then and still don't think that much of him now. Not that I don't think he can't be a good pitcher in the majors, more that I don't think of him as a true #1 or #2 starter, I saw him as more middle rotation material, and that is replaceable, perhaps not easily, but certainly doable. Aces are very rare breed of pitchers.
As I noted below, he has done well overall. However, his K/BB and K/9 are not at the levels you want to see if you are expecting an ace starter. Hopefully for him, he's like Bumgarner and improves on that the next season.
And I would note that he started off the season with a number of injuries. He had his issues while with us as well. And as a young pitcher, that's usually not going to improve with time, frequency of injuries would scare me about his ability to stay healthy and be a horse for the staff, which is another characteristic I would want from a true ace starter.
Wheeler has pitched pretty well this season with 10 DOM starts and, more importantly, only 2 DIS starts, out of 17. That's a great 59% DOM and good 12% DIS. He's having a nice, if inconsistent season. His 1.83 K/BB ratio metric belies those nice PQS stats; most of his DOM starts were 4 PQS, he would almost always miss on one category or another, though mostly walking too many or not striking out enough.
ReplyDeleteThat should be a nice springboard into 2014, though if Harvey should be out (he's actually trying rest to heal his injury, instead of TJS), he would become the ace of the staff, which would add pressure. Hence, I think, the Mets fans speculation of signing a vet starter like Lincecum. That would certainly take the pressure off, plus boost their rotation.
Given the Giants are actively pursuing signing Pence now, while not contacting Lincecum's agents looks bad for him, I am not giving up on Timmy returning. Whereas Pence's market value is pretty established now, Lincecum's is not, not by a long shot, so it would be logical to let him go but with the QO to make it harder for teams to sign him, and see where the market takes him. Though, however, the Mets are currently tied for 7th and are 2.5 games "ahead" of the 11th rank (which would give them the 12th pick) team, which is the Giants right now. Obviously, that loss yesterday helped them secure that pick a lot stronger, else they would be only half a game ahead of the Giants right now. And a top 10 pick means they only lose a second round pick and thus not as deterred to sign Lincecum.
Say, in the old rules, the team losing the player would get that second rounder, but now, instead, teams get a supplemental first rounder, in order of record, right?
The good news, for those who want SF to resign Lincecum, is that he's been so inconsistent this season and still into the second half of the season. He was pretty good for most of the second half last season, until he tired out, but he has had a poor second half, overall, though taking out that first start after the no-hitter, his ERA is a decent 3.80, though not great, with decent 2.35 K/BB, though reduced 7.6 K/9.
All those mix messages puts him in middling range of starters, so I don't see any team either giving him a long-term (more than 2 years) contract, nor a big money (beyond $10-14M range) contract. That gives the Giants a good chance to get him back with a 2 year deal in the QO per year range (plus the little extra something something that the Giants seems to give a lot to their players).
OGC - Pence and Timmy share an agency. Don't know what to read on that one. I'm sure they are in wait and see what gets offered mode with Timmy, so the QOs are gonna get declined and then we'll see what's what. For once, we really need that trademark Sabean impatience with Pence because he has us over a barrel. Can't have holes at both corner OF positions.
DeleteI assume the Giants goal is to have Pence's signing in the bag when they have their traditional press conference the day after the last game of the season. That way they can spend more of the time celebrating the signing rather rehashing what went wrong this season.
Delete