Since it's an off day and the minor league season is now officially done, including postseason games, I thought it might be time to do another Q&A which have been popular in the past. I'll take questions about the Giants, their farm system, the draft, fantasy or anything about baseball in general. Feel free to join in the discussion, constructively, of course. I might not get to the answers until this evening, but fire away!
Again, thanks to all the daily readers and commentors out there who help make this the best discussion in baseball.
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How about a ranking of minor league guys by position and your thoughts on could they be starters?
ReplyDeletePiLamBear
Well that is a major undertaking that would take several posts. I did a series on position depth chart 2 off-seasons ago. Didn't have time for it last year. Maybe I'll break it out again this offseason? Thanks for the suggestion.
DeleteThoughts on Mac Williamson? Does he have a legit shot at being a starting OF, perhaps by 2015?
ReplyDeleteI have high hopes for Mac tempered somewhat by the knowledge that he still has not had his trial by fire in the Eastern League. That's where all the Giants hitting prospects seem to hit a wall.
DeleteMac has enormous power and seems to be able to hit for average with some plate discipline. I worry that he may have a slow learning curve on how to handle pitches on the inside corner.
How about Javier Herrera? I know he is too old for AA but he had very good OBP with some pop in pitchers league , Does he have a shot at fourth outfielder in next season?
ReplyDeleteI really like what we saw from Herrera this season. It will be interesting to see where he ends up next year. Is he a minor league FA again? If so, he can sign with any organization which he deems gives him a better chance of promotion.
DeleteAfter seeing Peguero, Kieschnick, Perez, etc this summer, I think Herrera offers everything each of them does, with just a few more years experience. He was also a higher-regarded prospect in his day than any of those 3. I would have liked to have seen him get a chance this year. Could be an Andres Torres resurrection story, but with a better outfield arm.
DeleteHerrera was a highly regarded A's prospect but, I believe, ran into injury problems. I suspect those Richmond numbers are legitimate. Probably would take an invitation to Spring Training to keep him, but it would be worthwhile.
DeleteLooking at the Giants OFs that have auditioned this September and in the past, I don't think any of them have what it takes to be more than a 5th OF--that goes for Kieschnick, Peguero, and Perez (and Brown is nowhere near ready)..The only OF that MIGHT have a chance to be more AND is ready might be HERERRA who, to me, was the best everyday player in Richmond...It would be nice if the Giants kept him around and gave him a pre season shot.....The only other person to mention is DOMINGUEZ---had a fine year in AAA and El Gordo at 3B always needs some rest, and if he can also play the OF (anybody watch him enough at Fresno)??
DeleteSteveVA
Interesting article on the Pirates defensive plan - http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/4689239-74/pirates-defensive-season#axzz2f4BnFVMH
ReplyDeleteGiven that the Giants usually have a pretty nice defense, I feel that this should be a big part of the equation for addressing next year's plan. Very hard to get good info and analysis on defense. Care to take a crack at the strengths and weaknesses shown this year?
Defense has historically been a big part of the Giants game plan. Not sure why they were so bad this year. I'll break it down by position:
DeleteC: Buster Posey is adequate at catcher, but seemed to slip a bit. Hector Sanchez is raw but improving.
1B: Brandon Belt is a good defensive 1B who has gotten better by UZR as the season has progressed.
2B: Scutaro's back problems are clearly an issue here and caused some of his defensive lapses.
SS: Crawford seems to do better on tough plays and boots easier ones. Overall, he is an average defensive SS by UZR.
3B: Pablo was terrible in the first half. He improved a lot as he lost weight and got into better shape. Arias is a superior defensive 3B according to UZR in a very small sample size.
LF: Blanco is a superior LF.
CF: Pagan is another guy who makes difficult plays in CF, but also has brain cramps and sometimes takes bad routes to the ball. He is what he is. Probably his overall defensive grade is average.
RF: Pence is an above average RF.
Pitchers: Is it just me, or have an awful lot of the defensive lapses this year come from the pitchers and just general confusion about roles on infield plays? Maybe they need more work on specific drills next spring? I don't know.
Overall, the Giants should be a better defensive team than they have shown this year.
Yeah, the downturn is really odd given our history, m.o. and make-up. I was looking at the team defensive ratings/ranking in Bill James Annual Handbook and the Giants has been among the top teams in defense every year plus, among the top over the period of years. Sabean has always extolled the beauty of defense (and pitching). And we were a good defensive team last year.
DeleteBut once you dig into the circumstances, it makes sense, not that it was a domino effect, but just more of when it rains it pours type of thing. Scutaro was already aging, but that pinky finger probably didn't help. Posey has not been the same - per advanced stats - since his injury defensively and he's never been that good at 1B either. Sandoval was out of weight and his metrics go down as his weight goes up. Crawford, despite being the professor, has not gotten great numbers defensively. I mean, Sandoval in 2011 probably saved more runs via one stat than Crawford has his entire career.
The OF wasn't any better. Torres had that bum heel that he made out as less of a problem than it was, and so he didn't field that well in the OF. And Pence was always about average in RF, whereas Nate was great in RF, so big drop off there. And as someone here pointed out, and I agree, it seems like the pitchers made a ton of errors this season.
So I don't know if things will necessarily get better next season. Pagan has not been that good since 2010 defensively, a big drop off, so he's probably no better than Torres et al in CF. Blanco in LF would be good, but Pence is average in RF. And if Belt plays LF, some more drop in defense.
Posey will probably never be great catching again, just average. Belt is great defensively at 1B, but what if he's moved to LF? Scutaro can't do any worse, but probably will never be plus again. Crawford is the only silver lining, if his dazzling plays finally draw statistical credit, that would be great addition. Sandoval would be good if healthy and fit, but he has not defended well the past two seasons. And pitching, oy, not likely to get better in 2014.
But I do think that they will be improved over this year, just not a defensive plus team as they had been previously.
Sandavol resign long term or no?
ReplyDeleteI would not sign Pablo to a contract one day longer than 3 years! IMO, the best course with him is to keep him on his current contract next season and see if he can stay in shape and see if that makes a big difference in his play. If he does great, they can always give him a Qualifying Offer and see what his market is.
DeleteI would do it, but yeah, 3 years is max, with games played activating team options OK with me to extend to 4 or 5 years.
DeleteWho are the Giants minor league pitchers that will be in the Giants' major league plans and who could be trade fodder because the Giants have an abundance of pitching. Also, what do you think of Adam Duvall?
ReplyDeleteJ
The only untouchable pitcher in the farm system is Kyle Crick. I would be willing to talk about any of the others in a trade or trade package.
DeleteDuvall has terrific power. His defense at 3B is problematic and I think he would struggle to make contact at the MLB level. Marginal prospect.
DeleteIt's seems pretty clear now that Brandon Belt has become a big win in the Giants drafting/development scorecard. From a consensus 5th round 'over draft' to being on the precipice of becoming one of the top 3 first basemen in the league (with the latest break point being a result of the grip change). I think we can also put Brandon Crawford in the win category, but is there anyone else who is, or has the potential to be, a clear win?
ReplyDeletePeter
Lots of possibilities here. Tough to sort out specific ones. On the position side, I would say Mac Williamson shows the most promise.
DeleteI'll add Andrew Susac did an impressive job of keeping his head above water in the EL this season. I worry about his ability to stay healthy behind the dish.
DeleteOne thought I have had in addressing LF this offseason is through trade. Here's my pie in the sky deal: Package Stratton, Blach and Panik as an offer for Alex Gordon. Do you think there would be any interest there, or would KC want a Belt in return (if they were so inclined to make a deal)?
ReplyDeleteDepends on how Gordon fits into KC's long term plans and whether he is getting too expensive for them. It's an interesting thought though. That's where Sabes got Melky from for almost nothing.
DeleteAlmost nothing? He did even better. Not only he got Melky, but also he gave Sanchez to them. :P)
DeleteAt that time the Royals weren't contenders though. I would think that this year they would be more buyers than sellers, right?
DeleteLOL! Yeah, When the naysayers make a list of Sabes' bad trades, they conveniently forget to list the ones where he absolutely took the other GM to the cleaners. The Melky and Pagan trades were breathtakingly one-sided in the Giants favor, and the Pagan trade was made with a guy who the naysayers would compare Sabes unfavorably with.
DeleteI tend to doubt that Gordon is available, or if he is, the price would be astronomic.
DeleteThey got him signed for 3 years at a decent price, so we would have to do a massive overpay to get him, and maybe more in light of how well the Dirty trade worked for them.
DeleteAnd then there is the huge risk that 2013 is a portend of the rest of his career, as $35M for three seasons is mighty expensive if he hits .763 OPS/106 OPS+ for the rest of the contract. At 30 YO for next season, he could be in his decline phase of his career, after sharp declines from 2011 to 2012 to 2013.
Sabean has fleeced the other teams numerous times and, more importantly, has never really ended up looking really bad except for the AJP trade.
Beyond that, the Naysayers only pick at trades where they lost a prospect darling that never did anything big with their careers after leaving the Giants. Unless you count the late bloomers like Salomon Torres, Jason Grilli, Aardsma, Jerome Willams, or even Vogelsong, but the statute of limitations were passed, in my mind, for those trades, especially if you only count their WAR for the first, say, 6 seasons after they were traded.
And some pick at the remains of Sabean giving chances to players like Reuben Riviera, not realizing that you need to kiss frogs sometimes to find the Andre Torres, Vogelsong, Arias, Blanco, Stewart, Casilla, and others who contribute nicely to your team. Some equate that to being categorically unable to find any good players, ignoring the teams that Sabean has put together that won pennants for us, won championships. They forget that people makes mistakes, you need to view the totality of what they do, and not individual instances. It would be the equivalent of judging anyone by the stupidest things they have done in their lives, on their jobs.
That's the problem in the U.S. today, you need to CYA all the time and not risk making a mistake on the job, when it is calculated risk taking that brings the huge discoveries, the huge new markets. That's why most large companies stagnate once they get large and the new leaders come in and need to maintain things, they play it conservatively and eventually a more risk-taking firms eats their lunch. The goal is not to be perfect on the job for the GM, the goal is to eventually get the team into the playoffs and then to win the championship. As much as people complain, Sabean don't have an Ethier or CarGon or AGon or Carlos Santana or Josh Hamilton or David Ortiz on his trade/loss resume, and he has more World Series Championships than those teams combined over that time.
And if they truly believe that was all luck, then why are they still following a sport where luck rewards someone who they believe to be incompetent and should be fired? Especially when they feel that he lucked out twice! That, as Mr. Spock once noted, is illogical!
Truly great points about the seemingly endless ridicule of Sabean. Sure, he's made some mistakes. But he's been to 3 WS with 2 titles despite it all... many GM's make mistakes and wind up out of work. Sabean's got a resume most can only dream of!
DeleteWell there was that time that Sabean TRIED to sign Willie Bloomquist also! That would have been over 4MM that we couldn't spend on Carlos Beltran! And he's always signing injured vets like Mark DeRosa and Freddy Sanchez. Now its Marco Scutaro!
DeleteKissing the frogs is exactly right. That was the part of Jose Guillen some folks just can't let go. He was cheap, and very easily discarded (And he WAS discarded). Same with Frenchie, Miggy Tejada (least favorite FA signing of the past 5 years for me), O Cabrera (where is Thomas Neal these days anyways?), and then if you go back a bit more its Shea Hey and Garko. But those were calculated moves as well, getting a player with some proven performance record while holding onto the one thing everybody wanted - our starting pitching.
I imagine that's how it went this June/July, with the same 4-5 guys coming up in trade talks. Nobody wants the 2nd tier platter, they all want Crick/Blackburn/Mejia/Escobar et al. Mainly Crick.
I'll take a year on year off with Burrell, Ross, Scutaro and Pence. That'll do. I'm definitely not crying over Culberson, Joseph, Rosin or Nate the Great. And I'm not crying about Zack Wheeler either.
There is no crying in baseball...over anything.
DeleteNo crying in baseball. Fo sho. Love to give that memo to the whiny part of the Gints blogsphere.
DeleteWhat is your impression of Crick versus Wheeler?
ReplyDeleteI believe you saw each once, so we all have to take the small sample size into consideration.
I regard them as being approximately equal in raw ability with Wheeler obviously closer to achieving impact status at the MLB level. The one game I saw Wheeler pitch for the San Jose Giants in Lake Elsinore early in 2011 is the most dominant minor league start I've ever seen in a relatively small sample size. That sample includes Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Merkin Valdez though.
DeleteHow do you view Gary Brown after his difficult season in Fresno?
ReplyDeleteIt seems unusual that he was able to do pretty well in the Eastern League but wasn't able to carry that success over to the PCL, save one or two hot stretches.
pi.fa
Without having any inside information, I tend to believe that Gary Brown is dealing with some off field issues that are somehow related to mental/emotional health or else has nagging injuries that we do not know about. To me, his struggles are not fully explained by not being able to adjust to the level. He seems to have regressed as a prospect.
DeleteHaving said all that, I would not write him off just yet. Baseball is full of players who had terrible seasons that they were able to rebound from.
What in your opinion are the most important things the Giants need to address in the off-season?
ReplyDelete1. Re-sign Hunter Pence or failing that, acquire an equivalent RF via FA or trade.
Delete2. Find a LF who can rake(this might be accomplished by moving Brandon Belt to LF, but I do not know if the Giants coaches deem him capable of such a move).
3. Sort out what direction they want to go with the Starting Rotation. How much are they willing to pay Timmy and for how long.? Make sure they don't go over that limit. What is the backup plan if Timmy leaves? Do they pick up Vogie's option? Does the FA market offer better value than internal options?
Good list. I would add in signing Belt to a long-term deal, which has options to buy out free agent years.
DeleteThe Belt thing is not urgent at all!
DeleteI think it is very urgent because I think that he will be that much better as a hitter in the next four years.
DeleteSign him now when you can wave a big wad of money in his face and get him signed for less, rather than waiting until arbitration drives up his salary with each arb year. Taking off the first two weeks when he was struggling, his batting line since is .304/.377/.508/.885, vs. his .842 overall OPS right now. And he'll probably be a 20 HR guy, he'll be looking to get what Pence got in arbitration, whereas with a Sandoval type deal, we probably can get him signed up at a decent price now.
So yes, I see it as a very urgent thing, indeed.
I would be OK with moving Belt to LF. As much as we hear raves about his defense, like Crawford, the advanced defensive metrics only view him as best as slightly above average. His OF defense is about the same. And in LF, he'll be a much above average hitter, whereas 1B has a higher threshold for goodness.
That is ridiculous! Not even going to bother commenting beyond that.
DeleteI'm not convinced moving Belt to LF is a good move. Especially if Kendrys Morales is the only 1B on the FA market who could potentially add enough offense to warrant a move. I suppose if Abreu is, indeed, the second coming...sure. Outside of that, unless Angel V forces the issue, I see Belt as our 1B of the future.
DeleteOGC brings up a good point in regards to Belt's contract situation. Getting him signed long term sooner than later could save us a ton of money down the road. I would not consider that assertion as ridiculous.
Lucky
It could also blow up in the Giants faces. Belt's contract is controlled for at least 3 more years. There is no urgency to anything!
DeleteShould not have used the word ridiculous, but we'll have to disagree on this one.
As for moving Belt to LF, I believe the rationale is it's much easier to find a 1B with HR pop than it is a LF. I subscribe to that theory. I'm not necessarily bought into signing Morales or Abreu. To me, moving Buster Posey out from behind the dish where he is at constant risk of injury is a much higher priority than extending Belt's contract. The Giants have, what, $140 M at risk with Buster over the next 7, that's right, 7 years. Every time I see him take a foul tip off the mask or off the tip of his finger, I say to myself, the back end to THAT contract just got a little bit worse! The best way to protect that investment is to get him outa there!
Belt is putting up big numbers, he will get expensive fast. 4.2 WAR so far this year, getting him and Crawford locked in is definitely on the radar this offseason. I'd disagree its ridiculous, its an important part of the overall strategy.
DeleteThere is no urgency to locking up either Crawford or Belt! We just disagree!
DeleteLook, I'm encouraged by Belt's last 2 months too. They've been terrific! It's not the first time he's finished a season strong and less than 2 months ago, he was about 1 more week of slumping away from a bus ride to Fresno. His contract is controlled for at least 3 more seasons. There is no urgency to "locking him up."
DeleteAs for Crawford, yes, he's hit pretty well this year, but the phrase "....past a diving Crawford!" is getting a bit worrisome. I was looking at him last game and dude has gotten seriously thick in the upper legs. Again, no rush to lock him up!
I'd expect Sandoval type deals to get some cost certainty. Belt will be super-two, and he'll at least get 5 times the minimum. That's no big deal, its what happens if he repeats, then he's looking at Hunter Pence escalations. I'd expect a mutual hedge on this. Crawford has been a 2.5 WAR guy for 2 years. That's the start of consistency as well. Getting that cost control locked in as the Giants look elsewhere to spend money is a big factor. Is it the biggest thing to do this offseason? Of course not. I wouldn't dismiss it the way you are though.
DeleteI'm not dismissing it! I certainly would not put it in the top 3 of Giants priorities this offseason, probably not top 4 or 5 or 6 either. It's something they tend to do at the end of spring trainging each year to kind of wrap things up and start the season on a feel-good note. It's a consideration, not a priority!
DeleteHey, I sort of understand, but you were pretty dismissive at first. Your 2nd priority involves Belt, because he is a serious part of the lineup, whether he stays at 1B or moves to LF. Getting that set up on a long term plan at cost certainty is more than a consideration. Its obvious now that the Giants get all the credit for drafting Belt, and tweaking him to get the potential realized. The third part of that is making the calculated risk to have him locked relatively cheaply so they can spend elsewhere. Due to his super two status he will be going arb-eligible, which will escalate costs much quicker. Crawford may be a little more back burner, for sure. You're totally right on the timing, the Giants tend to throw those extensions right at the end of spring training, they did with Posey, Cain and Bumgarner in the past two years. But due to the arb negotiation, they do have to do something a little sooner on Belt, they might just go a little further than a quick bump.
DeleteWell, I WAS dismissive because I don't think it belongs in a discussion of Giants off-season priorities and just because I would like to see if Belt can play LF as much to get Buster Posey out from behind the dish as for LF's sake, doesn't mean I think a long term contract is a priority. The GIants are going to be just fine, now and in the future, contract or no contract for The Brandons!
DeleteWe're belaboring this point at this point... But locking up your young talent is the name of the game in MLB these days. These two sure do get a lot of chit-chat from Giants fans, that's for sure. They've been excellent additions on the field and as far as a cost analysis accountant's eyeshade view.
DeleteFor some reason I just found the initial comment to be annoying and the followup comment even more annoying. Yeah, we're probably arguing about the meaning of the word "is" at this point. Priority? Consideration? If I was to obsessively and compulsively make an exhaustive list of items on the Giants to-do list this offseason, I might find room for it somewhere around #13 or #14. If that's what floats your boat, then that's great! I just hope, what with all the other things on his plate this offseason, that Sabesy doesn't give it 1 second of thought any earlier than halfway through spring training. If that fits your definition of a priority, then I guess we agree.
DeleteOh, and I reserve the right to be annoyed, so there!
DeleteSounds good to me. You should also reserve the right to be wrong. Even in your own Q&A! We'll see how the Giants view that situation, which is a combination of their aggressiveness and what the player is thinking. They've made savvy lockups (with risk attached) of Cain/MadBum/Posey and hedged Pablo and Timmy (although offering 5/100 with 3 of those years being FA in Timmy's case). It just happens to be that Pablo and Timmy have the most question marks, and Cain/MadBum/Posey are more of a sure thing (but all long contracts carry risk along with the rewards). But my main point would be, you have to lock up/protect your young home grown talent, within reason, because the FA market is extremely overpriced and underserved. Let's see how the Giants view Belt this year, I'd say that is at least top 5, not a backburning 13/14 on the list. So I agree with OGC on this one. Totally fine to be annoyed, disagree and what not.
DeleteIt's fine to be annoyed, and I'm annoyed too, so we're even! :^)
DeleteIt's fine to disagree. I would point out that Belt is now hitting in Pence's range when he was entering arb too and Pence is being paid what I think is a rich $13.8M this season for what he had been doing previously. I think we should be able to sign Belt to a deal similar to Sandoval, who actually hit a lot better than Belt has up to that point, so with some inflation, his contract I think is where Belt's long-term deal should be.
His deal only covered his arb years, but compared to Pence's deal, that would save the Giants $3.7M the first regular arb year, $4.7M the second, and $5.55M the third. That's roughly $14M. Pence also got $3.5M in his super-two arb year, so I think the Giants could save at least $1M there, for a total of $15M in savings relative to what Pence got.
That's the minimum savings.
What if Belt's season's end of over 1.000 OPS is his new level of play? He's going to get a heck of a lot more than what Pence got, he'll be getting into Votto and Howard territory. And perhaps that is where you and I greatly differ.
I think Belt is pretty close to reaching that level, he has mostly hit well all season long this season, except for two weeks in early April and two weeks in late July. He's been on fire since changing his grip, and it would surprise me if the changes someone noticed recently wasn't accurate, his HR power has actually not been that consistent during this hot stretch, so it would not surprise me if he's trying to keep the hot hitting while figuring how to bring back the huge HR power he has.
If he reaches Votto/Howard standards, a long-term contract now would be an even larger savings than the $15M vs. Pence.
Sure, his services are controlled for four more years, but his salary is anything but controlled if he's turning into a good to great hitter. The salaries are going to be ridiculous if he has made the turn. That's why teams sign top guys to long-term deals. Plus, like with Lincecum, we had control over him, but I don't think many will agree that his salary was controlled while he was in arbitration.
And I'm still not getting the anger over this. Most teams sign their top players to long term deals to cap their salaries. I love the Bumgarner deal, I loved the Cain deal. Lowry and Sandoval's did not turn out the best, but Sandoval is still at least OK. Posey's is longer than I'm comfortable with, but he earned it with his great seasons up to then.
I think Belt is making the turn, that is my opinion, just say that you disagree that he's making the turn, and that would have been that. I put all over my comment "I" "I" "I", which I thought made clear it is just my opinion. And it was pretty short and sweet, I thought. And I don't view adding a few points to make my case, after a short comment before that, to violate any rules of commenting.
And I consider spring training to be part of the off-season, so maybe that's is another area where we differ. Yes, I would agree that we don't need to take care of it before spring training, but I think it is a priority item to take care of before the 2014 season starts.
I don't get the anger either. You can't claim to have the best discussion in baseball in the header and then dismiss comments out of hand. Especially with a loyal commenter who brings some fierce analytical capability to the discussion (if a tad obsessive at times, but that's right there in the handle).
DeleteFact is Belt is busting out in a huge way, taking it to the next level. If you have a top ten at the position guy you take the time to look long term. The comp to Pence is good. Obviously he doesn't have the hardware or cache of Posey, but he might have more juice than Sandoval, plus he is at the super 2 which changes the equation. Now Belt might have an agent camp like Timmy, where he goes year to year and reaps the rewards. Timmy certainly wasn't any bargain for his 4 years. The Giants have an opportunity right now to lock in savings, in case Belt goes hog wild. I'd say its no sure thing but its a definite chance, and I bet they go looking at this, in fact they're forced to do something with that super-2.
You want good discussion, I think you got it.
Belt has a terrific 2 months and he's busting out? After he was within lest than a week of more slumping from getting a busride back to Fresno? Suddenly signing him to an multi-year contract as a hedge against him winning the MVP is a priority? Come on, guys! Getting Pence re-signed? Finding a LF who can hit his way out of a paper sack? Sorting out the starting rotation? Just not in the same category as a contract to a guy who is going to play for you anyway for the next 4 years. Just not!
DeleteWe're skipping over a pretty important technicality here - arbitration. Here are the cases: Mijares (3rd time - 1.8MM 2013); Blanco (2nd time - 1.35MM 2013); Arias (2nd time - 925K 2013); Belt (1st time - 531K 2013); Abreu (1st time 498K 2013). So 5 guys to get settled. Rough guesses is Mijares is a 3MM guy, they may not want to tender him that. Blanco will be a 3MM guy, that is worth it from WAR score and 4th OF/defense standpoint. Arias might be a 2MM guy. Belt??? Abreu would be a 750K most likely. Somewhere around 9MM and Belt.
DeleteCurrent commitments are 84.5MM, but they jump to 91MM with Vogelsong's option. If you're good on Pence, say for 15MM you are at 106MM. These other arb guys besides Belt are 9MM, so we're at 115MM. Lopez back? Say at 5MM or so? 120MM.
The 5 FAs are Pence, Timmy, Lopez, Gaudin and Andres Torres. And Zito, once you've done the 7MM dance. Assuming Zito/Torres are finito, you've still got to fill 2 SPs and a LF, and then others if you cut guys loose.
So the Giants could have 20MM to spend to stay at the level they're at, 2 SPs and a LF? They might go big, up to 160MM, which would be a 40MM cut among the 3 positions. If I know my Sabey Sabes, he'll be lining up them arb cases and figuring out Belt before he goes looking. Every year, even if they don't yap about it as much anymore, its always about the budget.
If they don't sign Pence, they suddenly have a lot of moneys to spend. They're right around 100MM give or take a couple with no FAs back, assuming all the arb cases get settled (including Belt). But they have to get two corner guys and 2 SPs above and beyond that 100MM. And yes, those are the two biggest issues. But Belt isn't nearly as far behind as you're saying, and as we know the patterns of the Braintrust quite well by now, its take care of what you got and then see what's left.
Also, check this out: Here's the OPS+ leaderboard for the NL: McCutch 161, Goldschmidt 160, Werth 154 (quietly), Votto 154, Posey 144, Belt 143, Choo 143, Carpenter 143, Pence 142, Cuddyer 139.
Delete3 Gigantes in the top ten. Who knew. Yes, Belt is busting out big time. He is also 8th in Win Probability Added, and 10th in Offensive Win %.
Looking at that OPS+ leaderboard, its tempting to go after Choo, damn the consequences. 4 guys with that type of firepower = an offense that will go, even with the lack of HRs. It'd cost pretty big. I am seeing a lot of predictions that Pence will make more than Choo now, due to the power profile.
We'll just have to disagree on this one. It's not a priority!
DeleteWhat are your thoughts on the draft? Where do you feel that the Giants farm system is light, what players interest you with their projected high pick(maybe comp pick too?), and do you think that their strategy will be?
ReplyDeleteWe don't know exactly where the Giants will be drafting yet, but it should be no lower than #14. There appear to me to be at least 15 draftable players who could reasonably be taken in the top 5 so the Giants are almost assured of getting a good player. Looking in the 10-14 range which is where they are sitting now, I would be looking at HS LHP Aiken, HS RHP Touki Toussaint, HS SS Nick Gordon, HS 3B Jack Flaherty. I think Aiken might be my first choice here. Could be another Bummy.
DeleteIf they get a Supplemental Round pick you could look at toolsy HS players like OF Stone Garrett, OF Marcus Wilson and SS D'Quan Foster.
...er, make that T'Quan Forbes for the HS SS.
DeleteOther considerations for Round 1: College Fireballer Michael Cederoth and HS RHP Luis Ortiz.
DeleteHas Chris Stratton's prospect stock improved in your estimation based on a couple of articles posted here earlier?
ReplyDeleteThanks for your great work on your blog. Its been fun stopping here reading everyone's comments!
LG
I was encouraged by what the Augusta Chronicle beat writer had to say about Stratton. I'm still a bit disappointed in where he appears to be in his development at this point, though.
DeleteDr. B, What do you think of Shin Soo Choo as a realistic FA signing this offseason to fill the LF hole? More affordable than Ellsbury and younger than Beltran. I really don't see any other impact bats the Giants would realistically go after but I'm also not sure what Choo's value will be. Otherwise I have no problem with them going after the Cuban and moving Belt to LF.
ReplyDeleteIsn't a likely problem with Choo that he will get a QO from the Reds, and so cost the Giants a first-round draft pick, unless they play very badly in their last dozen games, so as to become one of the ten worst-record teams in MLB?
DeleteChoo, Ellsbury and Pence are the only 3 OF's worth talking about on the FA market this year. They are all going to get paid! Choo would be almost perfect for LF, but the competition to sign him will be fierce. He will be given a QO by the Reds so the Giants would lose their first round draft pick unless it falls in the top 10. I would definitely be willing to lose a second rounder to sign Choo, but would hate to give up the first rounder.
DeleteWhat are your thoughts of the idea of keeping Belt at 1st, moving Posey to 3rd, trading Pablo, and putting Sanchez at C being thrown around?
ReplyDeleteDepends on what they could get for Pablo. If he would bring back a young, contract-controlled OF who could rake, then yeah, go for it! I think it would be less disruptive and potentially a more potent lineup if they just moved Belt to LF and Buster to 1B with Pablo staying at 3B, assuming, of course, that Pablo continues to adhere to his current diet and workout regimen.
DeleteShouldn't the Giants be playing the kids right now, to see what they have got, and lose enough to keep them in the bottom 10? Historically, top 10 draft picks have a much higher success rate then mid to late 1st round picks.
ReplyDeletea. get a better prospect in the draft.
b. allow us to sign a Qualifying Offer free agent (Choo?) without losing a top 10 pick.
c. drop somebody else out of the bottom 10 that could potentially bid on pence or timmy (seattle?)
You could certainly argue that point. This draft is very deep and they will get a good player if they draft at #14. The biggest problems with dropping out of the top 10 is it would either prevent them from signing a FA who has received a QO, or they lose the pick if they do sign a QO FA. If they have already decided that they won't pursue any QO FA's other than their own, then it's moot issue and there is not downside to winning here in September.
DeleteIt seems the organization has gone back to having more pitching prospects than hitting prospects. If you were to make a list of the Top Ten Non-Pitcher Prospects, who would you have?
ReplyDeleteJust throwing in my worthless 2 cents off the top of my head, the only postion players I would have in the TOP 10 are WIlliams, Arroyo and Sussac..with both Brown and Panik (barely) falling out of the top 10..And that's more of a reflection of the pitching with something like
Delete1. Crick
2. Escobar
3. Meijia/Balckburn
4. Meijia/Balckburn
5. Stratton
6. Hembree (still a prospect and discard that one bad month)
7. Flores
8. Mac Williams
9. Arroyo
10. Sussac
HM: Panik, Brown, Cabrerra, Mela, Agosta, Blach, Galindo
(I have a hard time assessing Dominican players and recent draftees, but Arroyo's year was too good to ignore)
SteveVA
Ooops, read the question wrong, top 10 position players.....Hmmmm
Delete1. Williams
2. Arroyo
3. Susac
4. Panik
5. Gary Brown
6. Cabrerra (based on rep!)
7. Ryder Jones
8. Galindo
9. Adrianza
10.DUFFFFFFFY! (Nah, I don't know---Robles? Another one of the Domincans?)
SteveVA
How do you not have Angel V in that group???
DeleteIf we're talking about position players only, here's what I've got as an early offseason ranking... Keep in mind that my top 5 in the system are all pitchers.
ReplyDelete1. Williamson
2. Susac
3. Cabrera
4. Arroyo
5. Panik
6. Brown
7. Villalona
8. Adrianza
9. Duffy
10. Javier
The next spot would have gone to Ryder Jones, who is 25th in my overall rankings. While that's not an amazing group, especially when put up against the arms in the system, there's definitely some talent there. I do think Williamson and Susac can be every day players in the big leagues. Ideally, you'd hope that Arroyo and Cabrera will be regulars as well, but it's just too early to tell.
Not a bad list at all. I'll go with this one.
DeleteA couple of sleepers I'll be following next year: Mitch Delfino and Tyler Horan.
DeleteWe had the same Top 6 and also both had Adrainza and DUFFFYY...I had forgotten VILLALONA..Despite not hitting much for average and OBP to come back from what he did and launch so many HRS was a big accomplishment...
DeleteGuys like Cabrerra and Rafeal Rodriquez before him scare me...You can only go so long just showing potential (in the case of RafRod)..OTOH, sometimes if you wait, you are rewarded, which the Giants just might be with CHUCKIE JONES who had a good last two months...ANyway, Hopefully we see some more results (outsided of speed/SB) from Cabrera next, as well as Chuckie
SteveVA
I still like having Panik play MI, myself. :^)
DeleteAt this point, I would put Villalona above Panik and Brown, a reflection of how well he did as well as how relatively poorly the two did.
I think that is a pretty good group of position players given that the Giants have drafted from poor position the past four drafts and has normally focused on pitching than position overall. I would argue that it is probably as good a set of Top 10 position players - based on overall depth - than we have had in a long time, and probably ever. I remember when the top position guy in the system would usually be some big time HR hitting corner at AAA or a all glove/no hit CF in AAA. Most of that top ten listed here could have been our #1 at various points in our history, and not so distance.
I would tier it, something like this: Top 5 is pretty clear, its
DeleteWilliamson
Susac
Villalona
Panik
Brown
Next 5 is a little rougher. I'd go
Cabrera
Arroyo
Jones, Ryder
Ragira
Duvall
Horan, Duffy and Javier look like nice sleepers. I think Duvall has sort of proven out - but his injury history is a big red flag. He can hit though, the rep of him feasting off of mediocre Sally league pitching has faded some.
Boy, I don't know! Angel V is still very much a wild-card in my mind. I would definitely rank Panik ahead of him. Brown is another wild card who has more or less, sidelined himself from the discussion, at least temporily. I love what we've seen so far from Gustavo and Arroyo and don't mind at all ranking the young'uns a lot higher based on ceiling. I would probably rank them at least 4 and 5 and possibly as high as 2-3.
DeleteI'd say they are all wild cards. But Angel V might even threaten big club in ST, so proximity counts. Arroyo does well in full season ball he shoots to the top. Gustavo comes stateside? Hopefully yes, his end of the season was highly encouraging. So if those two prove out next year they'll be way up there, even among the pitchers.
DeleteThose top 5 are going to be in Richmond and Fresno and ST for extended looks. The next 5 are the recent pickups and a scrappy scrapper who will join the top 5, who has one thing going - good power with some plate discipline.
What's nice is there are so many up the middle players mixed in with the power profiles.
I have one more question that has strangely been eating at me a little. Why did the Giants choose Nick Vander Tuig over the top UCLA starter Adam Plukto? Nick was scouted as a "poor man's Plukto." Plukto was apparently their number one starter with better velocity while Nick topped out at ninety mph. Of course Nick did win the final game if the college ws
ReplyDeleteJ
I've thought about this one a lot as well. One thing I found on the velocity scale is that Vander Tuig is a TJ survivor who used to throw up to 90-93. He was getting up to 88-92 at the end of the year (source BA, if any UCLA guys have any further info...)
DeleteVander Tuig signed for 218K, picked 192 (ranked 145 by BA). Plutko was signed for 300K (200K overlot) by the Indians in the 11th, 321 overall (and ranked 179 by BA).
I don't know why Plutko dropped by the Giants, or out of the 5-7 round area he was predicted to go in, but I do know that his price tag was too much past that point, and might have been a factor in dropping him. (Half of baseball is gaming the draft with huge increases in the 8-10 so very few guys went overslot there)
Lastly, I think VT flashed slightly better control. Might be a tad bit more of a strikeout pitcher. He's definitely got a bulldog mentality on the mound, but Plutko isn't a slouch either. They're national champs, they did something right, including having the perfect type of squad for Omaha.
All I can say is the Giants know what they are looking for in pitchers. I don't pretend to know what that is. I can observe certain patterns: They really like guys who look like Matt Cain. They are not picky about body type or deliveries(Timmy/Madbum). There is obviously "something" that Tidrow et al look for that is not obvious to everybody, not even other scouts/executives.
DeleteThank you Shankbone that does make sense!
ReplyDeleteHaha now I can sleep better!
J
No problem J. Its important to get sleep. It helps you stay focused on the interwebz!
Delete