Deiyerbert Bolivar, LHP. DOB: 4/3/1996. 5'11", 155 lbs.
2014 DSL: 7-1, 1.27, 64 IP, 9.42 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, GO/AO= 1.47.
2015 AZL: 2-1, 2.08, 30.1 IP, 8.90 K/9, 4.15 BB/9, GO/AO= 1.38.
If nothing else, this kid is in the running for most awesome name in the organization. Signed out of Venezuela in 2013. His pro debut in the DSL was successful. He got a late start in 2015 appearing in his first game on July 24. He started off slowly, building his innings. In his final two starts, he went 5 innings in each game with a total of just 1 run allowed on 9 hits with 14 K's against just 2 BB's.
Independent scout Chris Kusoliak tweeted that Bolivar's FB sat 89-91 MPH and touched 92. There is a nice pic of him in his windup on Fourseam Images. I don't have much more than that. His small size makes his odds a bit long, but the numbers look good so far. I and anxious to see where the Giants place him in 2016 and how he performs. They will likely try to prevent too big an innings jump, so Short Season is a possibility. His ceiling is probably back end MLB starter vs left specialist. ETA is, oh, maybe 2020?
Saturday, February 6, 2016
Friday, February 5, 2016
Fantasy Focus: 2016 Breakout First Basemen- Ben Paulsen and Chris Colabello
Ben Paulsen, 1B. B-L, T-R. DOB: 10/24/1983. 6'4", 205 lbs. Organization: Rockies.
2015: .277/.376/.462, 19 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 354 PA.
Chris Colabello, 1B. B-R, T-R. DOB: 10/24/1983. 6'4", 235 lbs. Organization: Blue Jays
2015: .321/.367/.520, 19 2B, 15 HR, 360 PA.
I've been putting Brandon Belt out there as a breakout first baseman for so long now, it's gotten embarrassing. Now that I'm moving on, he'll probably breakout this year, which would be A-OK with me. The easiest way for a hitter to breakout is for him to keep on doing exactly what he's been doing, but just get more PA's, so I always look for guys who who might make the jump from 200-400 PA's to 600+. Paulsen and Colabello are two first basemen who might just do that.
With Justin Morneau moving on from the Rockies, Ben Paulsen stands to move into the starting 1B role there. Of course, the fact that he plays half his games in Coors Field is an added bonus. The downside might be that he doesn't hit lefties all that well and he might end up in a platoon with Mark Reynolds. Watch that situation closely and if it looks like Paulsen is going to get the bulk of playing time, he is a great sleeper option for an IF or UT slot on your fantasy baseball roster.
Colalbello is in a similar situation in Toronto. He platooned last year with Justin Smoak, but then became the full-time starter at 1B in the postseason. Smoak is still around, but the postseason may be a tea leaf that he could have a big jump in PA's. His downside is he is a terrible fielder and Toronto has no shortage of DH candidates. Again, I would not be looking at Colabello as the first 1B you take in your draft or even to draft him at all. His situation should be monitored closely and he might be a nice IF or UT option later in your draft or as a pickup target into the season.
2015: .277/.376/.462, 19 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 354 PA.
Chris Colabello, 1B. B-R, T-R. DOB: 10/24/1983. 6'4", 235 lbs. Organization: Blue Jays
2015: .321/.367/.520, 19 2B, 15 HR, 360 PA.
I've been putting Brandon Belt out there as a breakout first baseman for so long now, it's gotten embarrassing. Now that I'm moving on, he'll probably breakout this year, which would be A-OK with me. The easiest way for a hitter to breakout is for him to keep on doing exactly what he's been doing, but just get more PA's, so I always look for guys who who might make the jump from 200-400 PA's to 600+. Paulsen and Colabello are two first basemen who might just do that.
With Justin Morneau moving on from the Rockies, Ben Paulsen stands to move into the starting 1B role there. Of course, the fact that he plays half his games in Coors Field is an added bonus. The downside might be that he doesn't hit lefties all that well and he might end up in a platoon with Mark Reynolds. Watch that situation closely and if it looks like Paulsen is going to get the bulk of playing time, he is a great sleeper option for an IF or UT slot on your fantasy baseball roster.
Colalbello is in a similar situation in Toronto. He platooned last year with Justin Smoak, but then became the full-time starter at 1B in the postseason. Smoak is still around, but the postseason may be a tea leaf that he could have a big jump in PA's. His downside is he is a terrible fielder and Toronto has no shortage of DH candidates. Again, I would not be looking at Colabello as the first 1B you take in your draft or even to draft him at all. His situation should be monitored closely and he might be a nice IF or UT option later in your draft or as a pickup target into the season.
DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #44 Jose Vizcaino Jr
Jose Vizcaino Jr., 3B. B-R, T-R. DOB: 4/5/1994. 6'3", 220 lbs.
Short Season: .288/.351/.457, 6 HR, 5 SB, 7.3 BB%, 16.6 K%, 205 PA.
Jose Vizcaino Jr. has dual MLB bloodlines as he is the son of former MLB SS Jose Vizcaino, who had the best season of his career with the Giants in 1997. His maternal uncle is former MLB RHP Bob Scanlon. I like to think Viz Jr got his athleticism from his pop and his size from his mom. I may have ranked him too low as an overcompensation for liking the kid so much, and I'm damn proud to have picked him out of a crowd as a college SS playing for Santa Clara when nobody else was talking about him, at all! Viz Jr is not just big, though. He is athletic big with big, raw boned limbs broad shoulders and a barrel chest. Want a physical comp? How about Dr Scald himself, Dusty Baker?
He put up solid numbers for Salem-Keizer. He is in competition for 3B playing time with Miguel Gomez and Jonah Arenado. With Arenado probably slated for San Jose, Viz might get sent to Low A Augusta. I love his ceiling! I think he can be a starting MLB 3B with a .260-.280 BA with 20-25 HR's, maybe more. It will all come down to how the bat develops. ETA is 2019 if he moves fast, more likely 2020.
Short Season: .288/.351/.457, 6 HR, 5 SB, 7.3 BB%, 16.6 K%, 205 PA.
Jose Vizcaino Jr. has dual MLB bloodlines as he is the son of former MLB SS Jose Vizcaino, who had the best season of his career with the Giants in 1997. His maternal uncle is former MLB RHP Bob Scanlon. I like to think Viz Jr got his athleticism from his pop and his size from his mom. I may have ranked him too low as an overcompensation for liking the kid so much, and I'm damn proud to have picked him out of a crowd as a college SS playing for Santa Clara when nobody else was talking about him, at all! Viz Jr is not just big, though. He is athletic big with big, raw boned limbs broad shoulders and a barrel chest. Want a physical comp? How about Dr Scald himself, Dusty Baker?
He put up solid numbers for Salem-Keizer. He is in competition for 3B playing time with Miguel Gomez and Jonah Arenado. With Arenado probably slated for San Jose, Viz might get sent to Low A Augusta. I love his ceiling! I think he can be a starting MLB 3B with a .260-.280 BA with 20-25 HR's, maybe more. It will all come down to how the bat develops. ETA is 2019 if he moves fast, more likely 2020.
Thursday, February 4, 2016
DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #43 Jason Forjet
Jason Forjet, RHP. DOB: 1/4/1990. 6'2", 185 lbs.
A+: 7-4, 2.67, 94.1 IP, 8.20 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, GO/AO= 0.56.
Jason Forjet spent the 2013 season with San Jose and actually did not pitch that badly with an ERA of 4.52, a K/9 of 7.77 and a BB/9 of 3.53. The Giants did not make him repeat the level….they demoted him to Augusta for the 2014 season. He pitched great there and got a second shot at the Cal League in 2015. As you can see, he pitched great there this time around. He finished the regular season with 20 scoreless frames over 3 games with 22 K's and 5 BB. In his final regular season start he struck out 10 batters against 0 BB's in 8 dominant IP. One would think he has earned a promotion to AA Richmond for 2016. H somehow limited Cal League batters to just 6 HR's despite an extreme flyball tendency.
I don't have much scouting info. I seem to remember a pre-draft scouting report from 2012 coming out of college with a FB that runs 92-94 MPH. There is a short video of him on his milb.com bio page striking out a batter with what looks to me like either a hard slider or cutter. He profiles as a fringy SP prospect whose ceiling is probably #4 or 5 SP. ETA would be 2018 or 2019. The problem for him in the Giants system is there are only so many MLB jobs and there is a giant crush of pitching prospects competing for those few jobs that will be available over the next 3-4 years.
A+: 7-4, 2.67, 94.1 IP, 8.20 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, GO/AO= 0.56.
Jason Forjet spent the 2013 season with San Jose and actually did not pitch that badly with an ERA of 4.52, a K/9 of 7.77 and a BB/9 of 3.53. The Giants did not make him repeat the level….they demoted him to Augusta for the 2014 season. He pitched great there and got a second shot at the Cal League in 2015. As you can see, he pitched great there this time around. He finished the regular season with 20 scoreless frames over 3 games with 22 K's and 5 BB. In his final regular season start he struck out 10 batters against 0 BB's in 8 dominant IP. One would think he has earned a promotion to AA Richmond for 2016. H somehow limited Cal League batters to just 6 HR's despite an extreme flyball tendency.
I don't have much scouting info. I seem to remember a pre-draft scouting report from 2012 coming out of college with a FB that runs 92-94 MPH. There is a short video of him on his milb.com bio page striking out a batter with what looks to me like either a hard slider or cutter. He profiles as a fringy SP prospect whose ceiling is probably #4 or 5 SP. ETA would be 2018 or 2019. The problem for him in the Giants system is there are only so many MLB jobs and there is a giant crush of pitching prospects competing for those few jobs that will be available over the next 3-4 years.
Down on the Farm: More Proof the Giants Have A Great Scouting Department and Farm System
August Fagerstrom put up an article in Fangraphs yesterday that quantifies how all 30 of the current MLB teams were built. Interestingly, the team with the most players on their 40 man roster acquired through their own draft is the Giants with 24. The next highest team is the Cardinals with 21. Those 24 players are not just benchwarmers and AAA guys either. The projected fWAR from those drafted players is 27 with the next highest team slightly over 21. So, the Giants are getting major contributions from their drafted players, far better than any other team in MLB. It's not just from first round draft picks either. Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and Joe Panik are former first rounders, but Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Matt Duffy are not, nor are several key bench players and relievers.
What the article does not say is that this list does not count Tim Lincecum who was the guy who started all this when he was drafted in 2006, nor does it count Pablo Sandoval who was an international signee and Matt Cain who came even before Tim Lincecum makes only a minor contribution due to his recent struggles with injuries. Just think about the impact those 3 guys made on the Giants organization and then realize that we are already starting into the second generation of homegrown players bringing success to the Giants! The Giants track record of success in relying on the draft and their farm system now goes back a full 10 years, and longer if you count Matt Cain as the start of it all. That's right, this coming June will mark the 10 year anniversary of the drafting of Tim Lincecum. 10 years!
The fascinating thing about all this is through most of this period, the Giants farm system has not been ranked highly by most baseball prospect evaluators. Specifically, the last time the Giants farm system was ranked higher than #22 by Baseball America was 2010 when Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner were still prospects and Zack Wheeler was still in the Giants organization. Yet, in that same time frame, they have graduated Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Matt Duffy and a multitude of role players who have made major contributions to two championship teams and collectively account for a huge chunk of that 27 projected fWAR for 2016.
So, what is missing here? By this time, even the national writers who have been ranking the Giants system in the bottom 10 are starting to acknowledge that their success is not due to luck or "something in the water" or "pixie dust." Their run of success in the draft and farm system has simply run too long to attribute to luck. At first, the CW was the success was due to having a string of high draft picks because, after all, you don't have to be smart to draft a successful top 5 or top 10 pick. Then players like Belt and Crawford started coming along and blew that theory out of the water. The latest line is "well, Matt Duffy came out of nowhere. Nobody could have seen that coming!" Well, I'm not so sure about that. While there are always going to be doubts about whether any prospect can make that final jump to MLB, is there anybody who reads this blog regularly who was shocked by Matt Duffy's success, or Brandon Crawford's or Joe Panik's? If you followed this farm system closely, and knew a little bit about peripheral statistics such as K rates and K/BB ratios, you could see the numbers these players were putting up in the minor leagues were for real.
One thought that I have is you have to look deeper than the overall Top 100 prospects to fully understand a farm system. A lot of what passes for farm system ranking consists of counting Top 100 prospects and then ranking the systems based on that alone. Look, even I do not try to argue that the Giants should have more top 100 prospects, although lists that exclude Christian Arroyo are not credible, IMO, and I think you could make an argument for a few more like Tyler Beede, Phil Bickford, Lucious Fox and even Clayton Blackburn and Mac Williamson. What I do think is that if you were to extend the rankings into the top 200 or 300, you would start seeing a whole lot of Giants prospect names showing up, or at least you should. What the Giants have proven is those 2'nd and 3'rd tier prospects need to be taken seriously. In short, system rankings need to include depth in the analysis and not just the top tier talent.
Another thought is in the Sabermetric age, the mental side of the game is being ignored. I heard a recent interview, I forget exactly who or where, but someone was being asked about what the Giants scouts are looking for that other scouts and analysts may be missing. The answer was the mental side of the game. Do they know how to play the game? Are they both capable and willing to learn? A great example of this idea would be Matt Duffy, who may not have the most exciting tools in the game, but keeps a copy of The Mental Side of Hitting with him at all times and reads from it daily like a devotional book. Joe Panik would be another guy who may not have the eye-popping tools but seems to have an unusually clear-eyed vision of what he needs to do in each AB.
Bottom line: After almost 10 years of building this team through the draft and farm system, the Giants remain as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball!
What the article does not say is that this list does not count Tim Lincecum who was the guy who started all this when he was drafted in 2006, nor does it count Pablo Sandoval who was an international signee and Matt Cain who came even before Tim Lincecum makes only a minor contribution due to his recent struggles with injuries. Just think about the impact those 3 guys made on the Giants organization and then realize that we are already starting into the second generation of homegrown players bringing success to the Giants! The Giants track record of success in relying on the draft and their farm system now goes back a full 10 years, and longer if you count Matt Cain as the start of it all. That's right, this coming June will mark the 10 year anniversary of the drafting of Tim Lincecum. 10 years!
The fascinating thing about all this is through most of this period, the Giants farm system has not been ranked highly by most baseball prospect evaluators. Specifically, the last time the Giants farm system was ranked higher than #22 by Baseball America was 2010 when Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner were still prospects and Zack Wheeler was still in the Giants organization. Yet, in that same time frame, they have graduated Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Matt Duffy and a multitude of role players who have made major contributions to two championship teams and collectively account for a huge chunk of that 27 projected fWAR for 2016.
So, what is missing here? By this time, even the national writers who have been ranking the Giants system in the bottom 10 are starting to acknowledge that their success is not due to luck or "something in the water" or "pixie dust." Their run of success in the draft and farm system has simply run too long to attribute to luck. At first, the CW was the success was due to having a string of high draft picks because, after all, you don't have to be smart to draft a successful top 5 or top 10 pick. Then players like Belt and Crawford started coming along and blew that theory out of the water. The latest line is "well, Matt Duffy came out of nowhere. Nobody could have seen that coming!" Well, I'm not so sure about that. While there are always going to be doubts about whether any prospect can make that final jump to MLB, is there anybody who reads this blog regularly who was shocked by Matt Duffy's success, or Brandon Crawford's or Joe Panik's? If you followed this farm system closely, and knew a little bit about peripheral statistics such as K rates and K/BB ratios, you could see the numbers these players were putting up in the minor leagues were for real.
One thought that I have is you have to look deeper than the overall Top 100 prospects to fully understand a farm system. A lot of what passes for farm system ranking consists of counting Top 100 prospects and then ranking the systems based on that alone. Look, even I do not try to argue that the Giants should have more top 100 prospects, although lists that exclude Christian Arroyo are not credible, IMO, and I think you could make an argument for a few more like Tyler Beede, Phil Bickford, Lucious Fox and even Clayton Blackburn and Mac Williamson. What I do think is that if you were to extend the rankings into the top 200 or 300, you would start seeing a whole lot of Giants prospect names showing up, or at least you should. What the Giants have proven is those 2'nd and 3'rd tier prospects need to be taken seriously. In short, system rankings need to include depth in the analysis and not just the top tier talent.
Another thought is in the Sabermetric age, the mental side of the game is being ignored. I heard a recent interview, I forget exactly who or where, but someone was being asked about what the Giants scouts are looking for that other scouts and analysts may be missing. The answer was the mental side of the game. Do they know how to play the game? Are they both capable and willing to learn? A great example of this idea would be Matt Duffy, who may not have the most exciting tools in the game, but keeps a copy of The Mental Side of Hitting with him at all times and reads from it daily like a devotional book. Joe Panik would be another guy who may not have the eye-popping tools but seems to have an unusually clear-eyed vision of what he needs to do in each AB.
Bottom line: After almost 10 years of building this team through the draft and farm system, the Giants remain as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball!
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #42 Jose Reyes
Jose Reyes, RHP. DOB: 1/3/1991. 6'1", 185 lbs(5'11", 184 per Fangraphs)
Low A: 4-1, 1.36, 46.1 IP, 8.74 K/9, 2.14 BB/9
A+: 5-6, 5.86, 78.1 IP, 6.32 K/9, 2.07 BB/9.
Jose Reyes has kicked around the Giants lower minor leagues for several years despite being a hard thrower with seemingly good command. He put it all together early in the season for Augusta, dominating the SAL. He struggled after a promotion to High A San Jose, running up an ERA of 8.61 in his first 8 starts. The Giants stuck with him and he finished the season strong with a 3.02 ERA over his last 5 starts with 31 K's against 9 BB's in 38.2 IP. He pitched out of the bullpen in the Cal League playoffs throwing 5 shutout frames in one game but getting knocked around in two others.
Reyes features a mid-90's FB with good command to both corners of the plate. He adds in a hard hammer curve that he uses as a put-away pitch. I don't have any info on a changeup and maybe that is the final missing piece? He may have to scramble to land a starting gig with either San Jose or Richmond coming out of spring training, but his stuff should work in the bullpen too. He has the stuff for a ceiling of mid-rotation starter, but may have to settle for a future bullpen role. He is getting a bit long in the tooth for his level. ETA is probably 2018. Another interesting sleeper in the Giants system.
Low A: 4-1, 1.36, 46.1 IP, 8.74 K/9, 2.14 BB/9
A+: 5-6, 5.86, 78.1 IP, 6.32 K/9, 2.07 BB/9.
Jose Reyes has kicked around the Giants lower minor leagues for several years despite being a hard thrower with seemingly good command. He put it all together early in the season for Augusta, dominating the SAL. He struggled after a promotion to High A San Jose, running up an ERA of 8.61 in his first 8 starts. The Giants stuck with him and he finished the season strong with a 3.02 ERA over his last 5 starts with 31 K's against 9 BB's in 38.2 IP. He pitched out of the bullpen in the Cal League playoffs throwing 5 shutout frames in one game but getting knocked around in two others.
Reyes features a mid-90's FB with good command to both corners of the plate. He adds in a hard hammer curve that he uses as a put-away pitch. I don't have any info on a changeup and maybe that is the final missing piece? He may have to scramble to land a starting gig with either San Jose or Richmond coming out of spring training, but his stuff should work in the bullpen too. He has the stuff for a ceiling of mid-rotation starter, but may have to settle for a future bullpen role. He is getting a bit long in the tooth for his level. ETA is probably 2018. Another interesting sleeper in the Giants system.
Fantasy Focus: 2016 Breakout Catchers- JT Realmuto
JT Realmuto, C. B-R, T-R. DOB: 3/18/1991. 6'1", 215 lbs. Organization: Marlins
2015: .259/.290/.406, 10 HR, 8 SB, 4.1 BB%, 15.0 K%, 467 PA.
JT Realmuto got unexpectedly pressed into service when Jarrod Saltalamaccia's season imploded early and he put up fine numbers across the board. He played enough that there is probably not that much room for growth in his counting stats except a year of experience. On the other hand, the stats he putt up in 467 PA's last year were good enough for a final 9'th place in Rotographs Catcher Rankings. He gives the added benefit of being light of foot on the basepaths. He stole 18 bases in AA in 2014, so it's quite plausible that he could put up double digits on both HR's and SB's. Again, he's not a high draft pick, but I would consider him late in even 10 teams leagues over more familiar names such like Yadier Molina and Wilson Ramos just to name a couple.
2015: .259/.290/.406, 10 HR, 8 SB, 4.1 BB%, 15.0 K%, 467 PA.
JT Realmuto got unexpectedly pressed into service when Jarrod Saltalamaccia's season imploded early and he put up fine numbers across the board. He played enough that there is probably not that much room for growth in his counting stats except a year of experience. On the other hand, the stats he putt up in 467 PA's last year were good enough for a final 9'th place in Rotographs Catcher Rankings. He gives the added benefit of being light of foot on the basepaths. He stole 18 bases in AA in 2014, so it's quite plausible that he could put up double digits on both HR's and SB's. Again, he's not a high draft pick, but I would consider him late in even 10 teams leagues over more familiar names such like Yadier Molina and Wilson Ramos just to name a couple.
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