Scouting the 2023 Draft: Giants Organizational Needs, Draft Class Strengths and Drafting Strategies

 The 2023 MLB Amateur Draft is coming up this Sunday evening. We'll start our coverage with some bigger picture analysis.  As we get closer over the weekend, we'll take a look at some specific players who may interest the Giants who are also likely to be available when they pick in the first round at #16 overall.  Draft scouting beyond the first round is ridiculously futile at best and it's gotten a lot harder in recent years as amateur baseball content is increasingly sequestered behind paywalls which IMO are not worth paying for, at least for a non-professional blogger like me.  And of course we'll review and analyze every Giants pick out of the 20 rounds.

Two to three years ago, the Giants farm system leaned heavily to the hitting/positional side.  That has rebalanced or even reversed since the last two drafts went heavily for pitching.  The Giants are in pretty good position to take the best players available this year but it might be time to invest slightly more in hitting, especially in the first round.  More precisely, I would say there is a small organizational deficit in impact lefthanded bats and in power bats.  Currently, once you get past Marco Luciano SS, who bats RH the prospect with major power potential is 17 year old Rayner Arias OF who also bats RH.  

Overall this looks like a strong draft.  This college class of juniors are made up of 2020 high school prospects many of whom got shut out of that draft due to it being shortened to 5 rounds due to COVID which has swelled the ranks of good college players.  For some reason that translated more to the hitting side than pitching as the college hitting class is extremely deep.  While Paul Skenes RHP looks like a Stephen Strasberg level prospect and their is some depth later in the draft, it's tough to find any other college pitchers worthy of a first round pick.  High school hitter and pitcher classes are about average.  Historically college hitters give the best draft ROI so overall this is a really strong, interesting draft.

As a general rule, organizations should never, ever draft for MLB level needs.  Organizational needs can and should be addressed in subsequent rounds but the first round pick should always be the best signable player available.   Signability is relative and there is the catch. The FZ era Giants seem to like to draft players in the first round who will accept underslot bonuses so they can draft high-ceiling HS players who have the option of going to college as leverage in later rounds.  That strategy worked like a charm in 2020 with Patrick Bailey C taking the major leagues by storm and Kyle Harrison LHP a very promising pitching prospect they were able to sign away from a UCLA commitment.  In general, though, drafts are made or broken in the first round and I personally favor drafting the best player available and doing what it takes to get them signed.

Down on the Farm: 7/6/2023

 AAA:  Sacramento River Cats blasted the Salt Lake City Bees 13-6.

Heliot Ramos RF- 2 for 5, 2B, HR(3).  BA= .309.

David Villar DH- 3 for 4, 2B, HR(5), BB.  BA= .294.

Armando Alvarez 3B- 4 for 5, 2B.  BA= .310.

Michael Gigliotti LF- 2 for 5, 2B.  BA= .255.

Chris Wright LHP- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 4.78.

Heliot Ramos has come on strong after IL stint.  Is there another shot with the Giants in his future?  Ditto David Villar?

AA:  Richmond Flying Squirrels blanked the Bowie Baysox 4-0.

Wade Meckler LF- 1 for 3, 3B, BB.  BA= .379.

Marco Luciano SS- 1 for 2, 2B, 2 BB, SB(6).  BA= .228.

Spencer Bivens RHP- 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 5.09.

Raymond Burgos LHP- 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.51.

Tyler Myrick RHP- 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

Blake Rivera RHP- 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 2.97.

Composite pitching line:  9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 12 K's.  

A+:  Tri-City Dust Devils defeated the Eugene Emeralds 6-3.

Carter Howell RF- 2 for 5.  BA= .246.

Donovan Walton 2B- 2 for 4, 2B, BB.  BA= .242.

Aeverson Arteaga SS- 3 for 4.  BA= .219.

Jack Choate LHP- 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 2.25.

Arteaga is hitting .333 in 6 games in July so far.  He's had a disappointing year so far but so did Matos at the same level last year.  The important thing is he's stayed on field and accumulated PA's.  

A:  Fresno Grizzlies cuffed the San Jose Giants 5-2.

Thomas Gavello 2B- 1 for 3, HR(10), HBP.  BA= .245.

Nomar Medina LHP- 4.2 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 6.18.

Dylan Cumming RHP- 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 2.88.

Melvin Adon RHP- 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

Complex Performances:

Jean Carlos Sio SS(ACL, 19 yo)- 2 for 3, 3B, BB.  BA= .259.

Justin Bench LF(ACL, 23 yo)- 2 for 3, SB(1).  BA= .370.

Ramon Peralta 2B(ACL, 19 yo)- 2 for 3, HR(1), BB.  BA= .269.

Alix Hernandez RHP(ACL, 18 yo)- 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K's.  ERA= 4.63.  Very exciting young pitching prospect.

Cesar Quintas RF(ACL, 20 yo)- 2 for 5, 2B, HR(1).  BA= .421.

Sean Roby 3B(ACL, Rehab)- 2 for 3, 3B, HR(3), 2 BB.  BA= .264.

Nomar Diaz C(ACL, 19 yo)- 2 for 4, HR(1).  BA= .250.

Luis Bermudez RHP(ACL, 19 yo)- 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 9 K.  ERA= 5.92.

Christian Avendano RHP, 19 yo)- 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 3.60.

Carlos Concepcion CF(DSL, 17 yo)- 2 for 3, HR(3).  BA= .274.

Alfonso Perez RHP(DSL, 17 yo)- 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.50.

Down on the Farm: 7/5/2023

AAA:  Salt Lake City Bees defeated the Sacramento River Cats 5-3.

Joey Bart C- 1 for 3, 2B.  BA= .247.

Sean Newcomb LHP- 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 8.53.

Randy Rodriguez RHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 0 K.  ERA= 11.37. 

Joey Bart runs his hit streak to 8 games.

AA:  Richmond Flying Squirrels beat the Bowie Baysox 6-2.

Vaun Brown LF- 2 for 4, 2 SB(10).  BA= .272.

Hayden Cantrelle 2B- 1 for 2, 2 BB.  BA= .227.

Parker Dunshee RHP- 3 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 3.65.

Nick Zwack LHP- 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 6.54.

Ben Madison RHP- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

Looking for sleepers?  Keep an eye on Ben Madison who is low-key having a fantastic season.

A+:  Eugene Emeralds pounded the Tri-City Dust Devils 8-2.

Grant McCray CF- 2 for 4, 3B, HBP.  BA= .240.

Aeverson Arteaga DH- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .211.

Max Wright C-  2 for 3, 2B, BB.  BA= .202.

John Bertrand LHP- 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 2.92.

Brett Standlee RHP- 3.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 5.05.

I am going to have a problem keeping Hayden Birdsong RHP and John Bertrand LHP separated in my mind.

A:  Fresno Grizzlies pummeled the San Jose Giants 12-8.

Alexander Suarez RF- 2 for 6, 2B.  BA= .263.

Andrew Kachel 1B- 1 for 3, 2 BB, SB(4).  BA= .292.

Anthony Rodriguez 3B- 2 for 5, 2 2B.  BA= .221.

Patrick Hilson CF- 2 for 5, 2B.   BA= .243.

Turner Hill LF- 4 for 5.  BA= .243.

Game Wrap 7/5/2023: Giants 2 Mariners 0

The Giants needed a stop to their losing streak and Alex Cobb was the Stopper tonight with 6 shutout innings with three relievers completing the shutout.  Key Lines:

Wilmer Flores DH- 3 for 4.  BA= .266.  Wilmer had 3 singles out of the 2-hole but did not figure in the scoring.  The top 3 batters in the lineup, Slater/YtY, Wilmer and LMWJ reached base 6 times in 13 PA's with a SF.  The problem was the #4, 5 and 6 spots went a combined 1 for 11, HBP.  

Luis Matos CF- 2 for 3, 3B, BB.  BA= .246.  The kid needs to get stronger but he continues to put up strong ratios.  Again, he got on base 3 times and did not figure in the scoring. 

Alex Cobb RHP- 6 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K's, GO/AO= 8/1.  ERA= 2.91.  The Stopper!

The Rogers Bros and Camilo Doval RHP pitched a scoreless inning each with Doval picking up his 25'th Save.

The Win saved a series sweep and maintained the Giants in lead for the final Wild Card playoff spot. The D'Backs lost to the Mets so the Giants close to 3 games behind the NL West leaders.

The Giants get a day off to regroup.  They then go into the final series before the All-Star Break without a named SP for any of the three games.

Down on the Farm: 7/4/2023

 AAA:  Sacramento River Cats outscored the Salt Lake City Bees 9-7.

Dalton Guthrie CF- 3 for 5, 2B, SB(1).  BA= .275.

Joey Bart C- 2 for 4, 2B, HR(3), BB.  BA= .244.

Heliot Ramos RF- 3 for 5, 2B, 3B.  BA= .301.

Jackson Reetz LF- 2 for 4,  2B, 3B, BB, SB(1).  BA= .182.

Kyle Harrison LHP- 3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 4.79.

Joey Bart seems to have gotten his feet back under him.  It's going to take an injury or serious regression from Patrick Bailey for him to get another shot at the major league team. If neither of those happen, he could end up getting his next shot with another organization.  Ditto Heliot Ramos.

AA:  Richmond Flying Squirrels defeated the Bowie Baysox 11-5.

Wade Meckler RF- 3 for 4, 2B, HR(2).  BA= .398.  

Vaun Brown CF- 1 for 4, HR(6).  BA= .264.

Marco Luciano SS- 1 for 3, HR(11), SF.  BA= .225.

Shane Matheny 3B- 1 for 4, HR(2).  BA= .262.

Hayden Cantrelle 2B- 2 for 4.  BA= .224.

Carson Seymour RHP- 3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 3.54.

Meckler and Brown continue to thrive in the normally challenging Eastern League.  I read a post on Twitter saying Meckler has a 24 game on-base streak and a 9 game hit streak.  Brown has 3 HR's in his last 6 games.

A+:  Eugene Emeralds No-hit the Tri-City Dust Devils 3-0.

Grant McCray CF- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .236.

Hayden Birdsong RHP- 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K.  ERA= 4.76.

Mat Olsen RHP- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 3.90.

William Kempner RHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 1.29.

Sam Delaplane RHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K. ERA= 0.00.

Dominant five inning from Birdsong followed by 2 dominant innings from Olsen.  Kempner and Delaplane completed the no-no.

A:  Fresno Grizzlies outlasted the San Jose Giants 5-4(10 innings).

Alexander Suarez DH- 3 for 5, 3B, HR(4). BA= .261.

Matt Higgins LF- 3 for 5, 2B.  BA= .308.

Tanner O'Tremba RF- 1 for 4, HR(4).  BA= .274.

Dilan Rosario 3B- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .239.

Hayden Wynja LHP- 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K.  ERA= 4.11.

Cameron Cotter RHP- 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 3.75.

Reminder that Hayden Wynja is a major sleeper in the system.  Caused some consternation when Fangraphs ranked him #21 in their just-released Giants top prospect list but I tend to think they have it right.  6'9" LHP's don't grow on trees and he's put up some interesting lines admittedly at a low level.

Game Wrap 7/4/2023: Mariners 6 Giants 0

 The Mariners chipped away at three Giants pitchers for single runs in 4 innings and 2 runs in the 8'th inning while the Giants hitters mustered just 5 scattered hits against Logan Gilbert who pitched a CG shutout for the Mariners.  

The Giants remained 4 games behind the D'Backs in the NL West and 1.5 games behind the Dodgers while falling into a tie with the Phillies for the final Wild Card playoff birth.

Alex Cobb RHP tries to stop the losing streak tomorrow agains veteran Tommy Milone LHP.  

Churn Watch:  

Scott Alexander LHP was activated off the IL while Bryce Johnson CF was optioned to AAA Sacramento.

Down on the Farm: 7/3/2023

 AAA:  Reno Aces blanked the Sacramento River Cats 7-0.

Heliot Ramos RF- 2 for 3, 2B, HBP.  BA= .279.

Sean Hjelle RHP- 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K's, GO/AO= 13/0.  ERA= 4.09.

The Giants need to find up front innings from somewhere.  If they are not going try to get them from Ross Stripling RHP, Sean Manaea LHP or Tristan Beck RHP then why not give Sean Hjelle another shot?  He pitched well in his last MLB appearance.  I really liked Aces SP, Slade Cecconi RHP, who pitched 7 shutout innings in the 2020 draft cycle although I am not begrudging Patrick Bailey C and Kyle Harrison LHP.  D'Backs took Cecconi with #33, a competitive balance pick

AA:  Richmond Flying Squirrels edged out the Reading Fightin' Phils 3-2.

Marco Luciano SS- 2 for 3, 2 BB.  BA= .223.

Hayden Cantrelle LF/2B- 1 for 4, HR(4), BB.  BA= .219.

Ryan Murphy RHP- 3.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 4.66.

Will Jensen RHP- 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 2.66.

Juan Sanchez LHP- 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.23.

Marco Luciano seems to be slowly gaining traction.  He hit just .180 in May after missing the first month of the season in extended spring training.  Then slashed .253/.377/.464 in June.  Most importantly he's staying healthy and playing regularly in a challenging environment.

A+:  Eugene Emeralds topped the Everett Aquasox 6-5.

Victor Bericoto RF- 2 for 5, 3B.  BA= .296.

Jared Dupere LF- 2 for 5, HR(4).  BA= .270.

Adrian Sugastey C- 3 for 4, 2 2B.  BA= .292.

Jared Dupere is 11 for 34 with 3 HR's over his last 6 games.  Adrian Sugastey continues to have a solid season.  The best part is he's only 20 yo and still has 2 more seasons to develop before he's Rule 5 eligible.

A:  San Jose Giants defeated the Modesto Nuts 5-1.

Alexander Suarez RF- 1 for 5, HR(3).  BA= .251.

Diego Velasquez SS- 1 for 2, 2B, 3 BB, SB(12).  BA= .303.

Seth Corry LHP- 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 3.68.

Dylan Cumming RHP- 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 2.97.

Melvin Adon RHP- 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

Great to see Seth Corry pitching again and putting up solid lines.

Complex Performances:

Justin Bench 3B(ACL, 23 yo)- 2 for 3, 2 2B, 2 BB.  BA= .375.

Derwin Laya 1B(ACL, 19 yo)- 4 for 6, 2B.  BA= .269.

Javier Francisco 2B- 3 for 5, 2B, SB(2).  BA= .208.