Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Jeff Samardzija

The Giants moved quickly to stop the bleeding after losing out in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes.  The next tier consisted of Johhny Cueto, Samardzija, Mike Leake and possibly Wei-Yin Chen.  With Grienke signed with a division rival, but not the Dodgers, and the Dodgers likely even more desperate to cover the loss of one of their prized aces, it was imperative the Giants get the drop on the Bad Guys and get one of those second tier guys signed.  Don't forget, the D'Backs are still making noise about Leake, the Yankees are thought to be nearly desperate for pitching as are the Cardinals and Cubs.  Once the first second tier guy went off the board, the others could fall fast.

The Giants jumped on Samardzija AKA Shark for 5 years/$90 M.  The first season is for $9 M with 4 subsequent seasons at 18 M apiece.  There is a $3 M upfront bonus and another $6 M bonus spread out equally over the final 4 seasons.  There are no deferred payments.  There is a partial no trade clause with 8 teams allowed on the list.  I am a bit confused as to what the benefit of the low first year salary is.  The Giants seem to have plenty of cashish, but are reluctant to cross the Luxury Tax Threshold, but the Luxury Tax is calculated by the AAV of the contract which is not helped by the backloading.  Anyway, I'll let someone else worry about that.  Bottom line is they get a pitcher they have been interested in for years at a total price of less than half of what the D'Backs are paying Greinke.  The Giants clearly have the financial wherewithal, Luxury Tax cap or no cap, to sign another second tier guy or else a lower tier pitcher plus a top tier OF.

I've always like Jeff Samardzija.  I remember watching him pitch against the Giants on TV when he was with the Cubs and thinking how great a fit he would be in the Giants rotation.  He is coming off a down season with the White Sox.  I am not going to list his stats here.  You can look them up on Fangraphs or mlb.com.  I will just mention a few things which may help calm your fears that last season may be the beginning of a slide into oblivion:

1.  Last year, Samardzija pitched half his games in a bandbox ballpark and he pitched all of his games in front of a horrific defensive team.  Thanks to Shankbone for linking to a Fangraphs article by Tony Blengino showing statistical evidence that those two factors cost him a full run in ERA.

2.  It was rather striking that Samardzija's use of his two seam FB declined precipitously with a corresponding rise in the use of his cutter.  Not sure what that is all about, but the Giants generally encourage their pitchers to command both sides of the plate with the FB, and Rags is knows as something of a cutter guru.  I think there is a good chance they will be able to "fix" whatever went wrong there last year.

3.  Samardzia's FB velocity remained very stable at just over 94 MPH last year so there is no indication of any drop off in FB velocity.

In addition to the above 3 points, despite entering his age 31 season, Samardzija has relatively little mileage on his arm having pitched slightly fewer innings than Mike Leake who is 2 years younger, and less than half of Greinke's innings who is just one year older.

I like the signing.  There are risks to any FA contract, especially for pitchers, but there is every indication that this is actually a buy-low opportunity that the Giants jumped on, finally beating out their competitors and getting what could be a bargain in the process.

The one big downside is losing the 2016 first round draft pick, but it was probably unrealistic to think they were going to hang onto that give the situation this offseason.

Down on the Farm: mlb.com's Giants Top 30 Prospects

Yesterday, we reported on BA's Giants top 10 prospect list.  mlb.com released their top prospect lists at the same time.  Interestingly, their top 10 is quite different than BA's and they put out a top 30 list.  Here  it is:

1.  Tyler Beede
2.  Christian Arroyo
3.  Phil Bickford
4.  Lucious Fox
5.  Sam Coonrod
6.  Kyle Crick
7.  Jalen Miller
8.  Chris Shaw
9.  Steven Okert
10.  Josh Osich(ineligible according to BA)
11. Aramis Garcia
12. Adalberto Mejia
13. Mac Williamson
14. Chris Stratton
15. Andrew Suarez
16. Mac Marshall
17. Hunter Cole
18. Austin Slater
19. Ray Black
20. Ty Blach
21. Clayton Blackburn
22. Cody Hall
23. Michael Santos
24. Ryder Jones
25. Joan Gregorio
26. Derek Law
27.  Joe Biagini
28.  Chase Johnson
29.  Dylan Davis
30.  Steven Duggar

Jarrett Parker, who was #8 on BA's list is left off entirely.  BA said Osich is not eligible.  Other names I would question being on the list at all include Okert, Marshall, Hall, Biagini, Davis and Duggar.   Crick and Miller are both quite a bit higher than I would list them.  Coonrod is again higher than I would list them, although it is intriguing that he is so high on both lists.  Some additional names I would strongly consider for the Top 30 include Jordan Johnson, Johneshwy Fargas, Mikey Edie, Deiyerbert Bolivar, and Rodolfo Martinez.  I might also consider Ronnie Jebavy over Steven Duggar, but that's a close call.  I just know that if Jordan Johnson, Fargas and Rodolfo Martinez can't crack the Top 30, then that's a very deep system!

Hot Stove Update: Breaking News! Greinke to D'Backs!

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Zack Greinke has agreed to terms on a 6 year contract with RHP Zack Greinke.  The deal is reportedly pending a physical.  Wowzer!  THAT came up suddenly and out of left field!  Gotta think neither the Giants or Dodgers were willing to go beyond 5 years and the D'Backs  got him by adding on that 6'th year.  I actually think this may work in the Giants favor here.  While I really liked the idea of stealing Greinke away from the Dodgers, the contract came with a huge risk and put almost all of the Giants available budget into one player and an aging pitcher to boot, despite coming off one of the best seasons in MLB history.

If the Giants could not land Greinke, the next best thing is for him to sign with some team, any team, not named the Dodgers.  As I said in the Comments of the last post, here are the good things this does for the Giants:  1.  The Giants do not have the enormous risk of that contract.  2.  Greinke is a lot less scary wearing a D'Backs uni than a Dodgers uni.  3.  The Giants don't have to face him any more often than they did with him in LA.  4.  It not only takes him away from the Dodgers, but now they have to face him 5 or 6 times per year themselves.

The Giants can now spread the risk of that contract over 2 or 3 players, although they will still have to compete with the Dodgers for available FA's now that the Dodgers are left with just one ace and a bunch of question marks in their rotation.  The Giants fallback plan is said to be Leake and Samardzija. I'm good with Leake, but not thrilled at the idea of losing a draft pick for Samardzija.  If that is their plan, they better get it done pronto because the dominoes are going to fall fast now.

Down on the Farm: BA's Top 10 Giants Prospects

Well, the interminable wait for Zack Greinke to make up his mind drags on.  I'll just throw this out there:  If you really believe he is enough of a difference maker to pay him $35 M per year for 5 years, is it really that much more of a risk to make it 6 years?  I mean, after awhile, risk stops having meaning in these situations.

So, BA's top 10 Giants prospects comes out just in time to break up the monotony.  Here it is:

1.  Christian Arroyo

2.  Tyler Beede

3.  Phil Bickford

4.  Lucious Fox

5.  Chris Shaw

6.  Sam Coonrod

7.  Aramis Garcia

8.  Clayton Blackburn

9.  Jarrett Parker

10.  Adalberto Mejia

My own top 6 right now, although it could change, is Arroyo, Beede, Bickford, Blackburn, Fox and Big Mac, but I'm not sure of the exact order.  I can't really argue with Shaw in the top 5.  I really, really like his bat, but I'm not sure why they picked Coonrod's name out of a hat and left the Johnsons's, who throw just as hard, and did it at higher levels.  Putting Parker in the top 10 while leaving Big Mac off is pretty egregious too.  I guess the take home message can be that a system in which Big Mac can't crack the top 10 is a darn good system!

In the chat, JJ Cooper actually had some really good things to say about the Giants current farm system and about their scouting, development and coaching.  A couple of knuckleheads, probably MCC readers/commenters, kept trying to get him to say it's either the worst system in baseball or bottom 5.  He kept insisting it is at least middle of the pack and probably underrated due to the Giants recent track record of developing hitters.

Like me, Cooper seems to think that Beede's slide in AA was mostly due to fatigue from his first exposure to the minor league grind.  He also reiterated that the lower velocity and lower K's is due to the switch to the 2-seam FB and trying to improve command which worked out great until he got fatigued.

Fantasy Focus: 2016 Impact Rookies- Trea Turner

Trea Turner, SS.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  6/30/1993.  6'1", 175 lbs.  2015 MLB:  .225/.295/.325, 1 HR, 2 SB, 44 PA.  AAA:  .314/.353/.341, 3 HR, 14 SB, 205 PA.

Turner is a former first round draft pick of the San Diego Padres, traded to the Nationals as a PTBNL before he was eligible to be traded in the 3 team deal that brought Wil Myers to the Padres.  With Ian Desmond coming off a down season and now a FA, Turner is the man at SS for the Nationals now.  He will likely be the full time starter from Opening Day 2016.  I would not expect too much fantasy value from him as I expect him to have his offensive struggles in his first full MLB season, but double digit HR's and Steals are both possible and he may be draftable at the back end of leagues as small as 10 teams.

A Tough Day in the Inland Empire

Greetings to all you faithful Giants fans who read this blog every day and write your comments.  I appreciate you all.  Today was a tough day in the Inland Empire of Southern California.  Yet another mass shooting took place at the Inland Regional Center in San Bernardino.  There was a subsequent shootout with the perpetrators on the streets of Redlands.  As I write this, I can hear a helicopter hovering and circling over an apartment just about 2 blocks from my house that the police and FBI are searching.

My family and I are all safe and sound.  As far as I know, all of our friends and colleagues are also safe.  My wife knows and works with many people who work out of the Regional Center.  At this time, we do not know if any of those acquaintances are among the victims of the shootings.

This is not a political blog and I do not intend to turn it into one.  Due to the proximity of this event, I wish to make the following statement:

We are currently experiencing an unprecedented epidemic of mass shootings in this country.  As with most things in life, I believe the causes are multifactorial and there is probably not one simple solution.  I do know that we cannot continue to simply grieve, wring our hands and hold vigils.  It will take a lot of hard work and it will probably take time, but we have to start turning this around and we need to start now.  Progress will likely require both better enforcement of current gun laws and also changes to current gun laws.  It will likely require changes in law enforcement and protection of private  and government places of business as well as public events.  It will likely require changes in mental health services and privacy laws as they pertain to mental health.  It will likely require a hard look at, and changes in, certain types of entertainment.  It will also require more civility in our political discourse.

Enough is enough!  The time for action is now!

Thank you all for being part of this community and for your support.

I will publish thoughtful comments on this post.

Dr B

Hot Stove Update: Price to the BoSox

David Price has reportedly agreed to the largest contract ever given a pitcher in MLB.  The Boston Red Sox were reported to be ready to outbid everybody else for Price and they did just that for 7 years/$217 M.  The deal reunites Price and new Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski, who once traded for Price as GM of the Detroit Tigers.  The deal also keeps Price in the AL which is what it felt like was going to happen all along  I don't think there is any real point in discussing contract value.  Contract value is only pertinent if the contract somehow prevents the team from signing a player they want in the future.  This contract comes on the heels of two busted contracts from last offseason, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.  Those certainly did not slow down the Red Sox pursuit of David Price and Price's contract is unlikely to prevent the addition of other players in the future.  Price gives Boston what they did not have last year, an ace pitcher.  Of course, adding an ace pitcher, even if he lives up to expectations, is no guarantee of team success.  Just ask the Washington Nationals!

The deal also leaves Zack Greinke as the lone top tier pitcher left on the market.  The bidding seems to be down to the Giants and Dodgers with both teams demanding a decision.  Expect an announcement this week, maybe as early as tomorrow.  My feeling is the Dodgers have the advantage here.  I have always believed that to land either Greinke or Price, for different reasons the Giants would have to come in with blow-away offer at least $20-30 M above the rest of the market.  With Price, it would be to get him out of his comfort zone in the AL.  For Greinke, it would be to get him away from the Dodgers.  The problem is, I am not sure it is even possible to outbid the Dodgers like that!  For that reason, I am going at least 70/30 that Greinke ends up back with the Dodgers.  Of course it is possible that the Giants don't really want to spend what it would take to land Greinke and just want to drive up his price as high as possible for their downstate rivals, but if that is the case, it is setting up yet another scenario where they come in second in the bidding for a top free agent.  At some point, they have to land somebody or suffer a major credibility loss.

Speaking of Zack Greinke, a strange story has emerged about Zack in the Dodgers clubhouse.  The story is recorded in a book released this past summer about the Dodgers entitled The Best Team Money Can Buy.  It seems that Don Mattingly called a team meeting during a losing streak in 2013.  Now Greinke is, by all accounts, a guy who marches to a different drummer.  He apparently has very little to say to his teammates, ever.  So, when he asked for the floor in the team meeting, everybody wanted to know what he had to say.  As everybody leaned in, Greinke spoke:  "Some of you guys are doing the number 2 and not washing your hands.  It's not good!  I noticed it happening earlier today.  So, if you guys could just be better about it, that would be great."  WTF?  The other players reportedly had no idea whether he was serious or not.  They finally concluded that he was, which made it twice as funny!
Ironically, it loosened up the clubhouse and the Dodgers clinched the NL West 2 games later.

Here's the question:  Does this story make you more or less eager for the Giants to sign Greinke, or does it not affect your opinion?