AAA Salt Lake City Bees defeated the Fresno Grizzlies 4-2:
Tony Abreu(2B)- 2 for 4, 2B. BA= .300.
Roger Kieschnick(RF)- 1 for 4, HR(9). BA= .300.
Chris Dominguez(3B)- 2 for 4. BA= .288.
Chris Heston(RHP)- 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 5.72.
Jake Dunning(RHP)- 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 1.50.
Considering the venue, that is good pitching from Heston and Dunning. Juan Perez gets the call to The Show to replace Angel Pagan who goes on the DL.
AA Richmond Flying Squirrels vs Trenton Thunder rained out.
High A San Jose Giants clubbed the Lancaster Jethawks 8-4:
Mac Williamson(RF)- 1 for 3, HR(8). BA= .246.
Myles Schroder(3B)- 2 for 3, 2B, BB. BA= .250.
Jose Casilla(RHP)- 3.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, GO/AO- 10/1. ERA= 3.26.
Josh Osich(LHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 1.23.
Was this a bullpen game or are the Giants going to try Casilla as a starter? Mac Williamson has a 6 game hit streak in which he is 8 for 25(.320). He has 4 2B and 3 HR out of 9 hits over his last 10 games for a .629 SLG%.
Low A Augusta Greenjackets blanked the Lexington Legends 4-0:
Stephen Branca(DH)- 2 for 4. BA= .235.
Ben Turner(C)- 2 for 4. BA= .240.
Andrew Cain(LF)- 3 for 4, SB(9). BA= .250.
Martin Agosta(RHP)- 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K's. ERA= 2.19.
Jorge Bucardo(RHP)- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 0.00.
Dominating performance by Agosta. In his last 3 starts, Agosta has allowed just 2 runs in 21 IP with 24 K's against 5 BB's. Hey look! A Jorge Bucardo sighting!
DSL D'Backs topped the Giants 4-2:
Hengerber Medina(SS, 18 yo)- 1 for 3, BB. BA= .136.
Carlos Cartagena(LF, 19 yo)- 2 for 4. BA= .250.
Michael Santos(RHP, 18 yo)- 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K's. ERA= 5.19.
Saturday, June 8, 2013
Friday, June 7, 2013
Game Wrap 6/7/2013: D'Backs 3 Giants 1
The Giants snatched defeat from the jaws of victory due largely to mismanagement of the pitching in the 8'th inning as Giants Killer Paul Goldschmidt erased a 1-0 Giants lead with a 3 run dinger. Key Lines:
Matt Cain- 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 5.09. Cain threw 105 pitches, so I have no problem with Bochy pulling him after he allowed a leadoff single to AJ Pollack in the 8'th. It's what ensued that I have a problem with.
Jeremy Affeldt- 1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 K. ERA= 2.61. Affeldt got the first two batters he faced, but then walked Willie Bloomquist to put runners on first and second with Goldschmidt coming up. Yes, Affeldt has earned a certain amount of confidence, but walking Bloomquist with Goldschmidt on deck is pretty much unforgiveable. Goldschmidt is already a well known Giants killer and as Kruk likes to say, ownage is ownage. IMO, Bochy had two decent choices: Intentionally walk Goldschmidt and let Affledt face the lefthanded batting Miguel Montero or bring in a RHP to face Goldy. Instead, he let Affeldt face Goldy and you just had to know what the outcome of THAT was going to be. Man, what a punch to the gut!
The Loss dropped the Giants into 3'rd place in the NL West, 3.5 games behind the division leading D'Backs. The Rockies edged the Padres 10-9 to remain in second place, 2.5 games back while the Padres dropped to 7 games behind in 4'th place. The Dodger remained in last place, 7.5 games behind the leaders despite their 201 win over the Braves sparked by Yasiel Puig's 4'th HR since being called up.
Madison Bumgarner takes on Trevor Cahill in game 2 of the weekend series tomorrow night.
Matt Cain- 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 5.09. Cain threw 105 pitches, so I have no problem with Bochy pulling him after he allowed a leadoff single to AJ Pollack in the 8'th. It's what ensued that I have a problem with.
Jeremy Affeldt- 1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 K. ERA= 2.61. Affeldt got the first two batters he faced, but then walked Willie Bloomquist to put runners on first and second with Goldschmidt coming up. Yes, Affeldt has earned a certain amount of confidence, but walking Bloomquist with Goldschmidt on deck is pretty much unforgiveable. Goldschmidt is already a well known Giants killer and as Kruk likes to say, ownage is ownage. IMO, Bochy had two decent choices: Intentionally walk Goldschmidt and let Affledt face the lefthanded batting Miguel Montero or bring in a RHP to face Goldy. Instead, he let Affeldt face Goldy and you just had to know what the outcome of THAT was going to be. Man, what a punch to the gut!
The Loss dropped the Giants into 3'rd place in the NL West, 3.5 games behind the division leading D'Backs. The Rockies edged the Padres 10-9 to remain in second place, 2.5 games back while the Padres dropped to 7 games behind in 4'th place. The Dodger remained in last place, 7.5 games behind the leaders despite their 201 win over the Braves sparked by Yasiel Puig's 4'th HR since being called up.
Madison Bumgarner takes on Trevor Cahill in game 2 of the weekend series tomorrow night.
Scouting the Draft: Day 2
Day 2 of the MLB First Year Draft started off strangely for the Giants as they took an obscure college reliever in round 3, but then things got good and they ran off a string of inspired picks to bring Day 2 to a successful conclusion. Let's break it down:
Round 3 #101 Chase Johnson, RHP, Cal-Poly, 6'3", 190 lbs. Jr. 0-0, 2.31, 23.1 IP, 9 BB, 21 K's.
Johnson was Cal Poly's closer in 2012, but for unclear reasons, lost that role to Reid Reilly. Johnson was used sparingly this year, yet pitched well when he had a chance. His MLB scouting report has his FB up to 93 with sink and an average changeup and slider. On the surface, this is a strange pick in the 3'rd round, but I think I have this thing scoped out. Listen up, team! Here's the deal. The third round has a slot bonus of $510 K. This guy can probably be signed for around $100 K which frees up about $400 K to help ensure the Giants can go to war with Stanford over Jones and Ragira. At least I hope that's the plan because if it isn't, this is a bad pick!
Round 4 #132 Brian Ragira, 1B, Stanford, B-R, T-R, 6'2", 185 lbs, Jr. .320/.375/.482, 8 HR, 4 SB.
Classic John Barr 4'th round pick. HS phenom who started off well his first two years of college whose stock slips in his junior year. Ragira has his warts, but I like the upside of this pick for round 4. I remember video of his swing coming out of HS and loving it. Very wristy. Reminded me a lot of Hank Aaron or Eric Davis. Not sure what they do to hitters at Stanford, but that may have held back his growth as a prospect. He has serious raw power and hit 9 HR's using wood bats in the CCL. Doesn't walk a lot but also doesn't K a lot. Could bust, but the ceiling is very high. Again, love the pick at this spot, assuming they sign him.
Round 5 #162 Daniel Slania, RHP, Notre Dame, 6'5",265 lbs, Jr. 3-1, 1.21, 59.1 IP, 11 BB, 43 K, 13 Saves.
Jumbo college closer who I've had my eye on pre-draft. Mid 90's heat with a sharp slider as an out-pitch. He also has a very good changeup with enough command that he could be considered for a starting role in the pros. I am really surprised Slania lasted this long. Terrific pick!
Round 6 #192 Nick Vander Tuig, RHP, UCLA, 6'3", 195 lbs, Jr. 11-4, 2.51, 107.2 IP, 17 BB, 77 K's.
Classic polished college starter. Low 90's FB with good command of 4 pitches. Should be a relatively fast mover with a ceiling of a 4'th or 5'th starter in the majors. Nice value in Round 6.
Round 7 #222 Brandon Bednar, SS, Florida Gulf Coast, B-R, T-R, 6'4", 185 lbs, Jr. .336/.394/.441, 17 2B, 1 HR, 7 SB, 23 K, 15 BB, 10 HBP.
Don't know much about this guy. First position player from FGCU to be drafted in the top 25 rounds. Apparently quite athletic. Can play SS, but could play multiple positions and develop into a utility player. Strong arm. Bat is relatively undeveloped. Line drive swing that makes good contact. Could possibly walk a bit more, but does not K a lot. Continues the John Barr pattern of good K/BB. OK pick at #7.
Round 8 #252 Tyler Horan, OF, Virginia Tech, B-L, T-R, 6'2", 230 lbs, Sr. .342/.391/.603, 26 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 5 SB, 257 AB, 18 BB, 38 K.
My white whale! Did I call this or what? Chunky body who moves well enough to play LF. Pure hitter! Hits for average with plus power. Set a Cape Cod League record with 16 dingers! Quick bat without much load. Some scouts worry about K's, but his college numbers are not terrible. I absolutely love this pick at #8. In fact, I was praying for it!
Round 9 #282 Donald Snelton, LHP, Minnesota, 6'6", 215 lbs, Jr. 5-2, 2.15, 58.2 IP, 19 BB, 42 K's.
Dodgers took teammate Tom Windle in round 2, but I think I might like this guy a bit better. Great size. FB up to 94. Still developing secondary stuff. May not move as fast as Windle, but may well have a higher ceiling. Nice pick!
Round 10 #312 Tyler Rogers, RHP, Austin Peay St., 6'4", 190 lbs, Sr. 7-2, 1.63, 49.2 IP, 27 BB, 41 K's, 23 Saves.
College Closer from a smaller D1 program. His pic on the Austin Peay website looks like he is throwing sidearm or from down under. I think every bullpen should have 1 sidearmer from each side. Another nice pick.
Now that I've seen the top 10 picks, this draft is already growing on me. Interesting interview with John Barr on CSN Bay Area. He brushed aside questions about where Arroyo would play and stated, "he's an offensive player", making it clear that he is in love with the bat. Barr has definitely developed a profile of the type of hitter he is looking for. This draft will eventually go a long way toward proving or disproving whether his theories are right. I love the conviction though!
Round 3 #101 Chase Johnson, RHP, Cal-Poly, 6'3", 190 lbs. Jr. 0-0, 2.31, 23.1 IP, 9 BB, 21 K's.
Johnson was Cal Poly's closer in 2012, but for unclear reasons, lost that role to Reid Reilly. Johnson was used sparingly this year, yet pitched well when he had a chance. His MLB scouting report has his FB up to 93 with sink and an average changeup and slider. On the surface, this is a strange pick in the 3'rd round, but I think I have this thing scoped out. Listen up, team! Here's the deal. The third round has a slot bonus of $510 K. This guy can probably be signed for around $100 K which frees up about $400 K to help ensure the Giants can go to war with Stanford over Jones and Ragira. At least I hope that's the plan because if it isn't, this is a bad pick!
Round 4 #132 Brian Ragira, 1B, Stanford, B-R, T-R, 6'2", 185 lbs, Jr. .320/.375/.482, 8 HR, 4 SB.
Classic John Barr 4'th round pick. HS phenom who started off well his first two years of college whose stock slips in his junior year. Ragira has his warts, but I like the upside of this pick for round 4. I remember video of his swing coming out of HS and loving it. Very wristy. Reminded me a lot of Hank Aaron or Eric Davis. Not sure what they do to hitters at Stanford, but that may have held back his growth as a prospect. He has serious raw power and hit 9 HR's using wood bats in the CCL. Doesn't walk a lot but also doesn't K a lot. Could bust, but the ceiling is very high. Again, love the pick at this spot, assuming they sign him.
Round 5 #162 Daniel Slania, RHP, Notre Dame, 6'5",265 lbs, Jr. 3-1, 1.21, 59.1 IP, 11 BB, 43 K, 13 Saves.
Jumbo college closer who I've had my eye on pre-draft. Mid 90's heat with a sharp slider as an out-pitch. He also has a very good changeup with enough command that he could be considered for a starting role in the pros. I am really surprised Slania lasted this long. Terrific pick!
Round 6 #192 Nick Vander Tuig, RHP, UCLA, 6'3", 195 lbs, Jr. 11-4, 2.51, 107.2 IP, 17 BB, 77 K's.
Classic polished college starter. Low 90's FB with good command of 4 pitches. Should be a relatively fast mover with a ceiling of a 4'th or 5'th starter in the majors. Nice value in Round 6.
Round 7 #222 Brandon Bednar, SS, Florida Gulf Coast, B-R, T-R, 6'4", 185 lbs, Jr. .336/.394/.441, 17 2B, 1 HR, 7 SB, 23 K, 15 BB, 10 HBP.
Don't know much about this guy. First position player from FGCU to be drafted in the top 25 rounds. Apparently quite athletic. Can play SS, but could play multiple positions and develop into a utility player. Strong arm. Bat is relatively undeveloped. Line drive swing that makes good contact. Could possibly walk a bit more, but does not K a lot. Continues the John Barr pattern of good K/BB. OK pick at #7.
Round 8 #252 Tyler Horan, OF, Virginia Tech, B-L, T-R, 6'2", 230 lbs, Sr. .342/.391/.603, 26 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 5 SB, 257 AB, 18 BB, 38 K.
My white whale! Did I call this or what? Chunky body who moves well enough to play LF. Pure hitter! Hits for average with plus power. Set a Cape Cod League record with 16 dingers! Quick bat without much load. Some scouts worry about K's, but his college numbers are not terrible. I absolutely love this pick at #8. In fact, I was praying for it!
Round 9 #282 Donald Snelton, LHP, Minnesota, 6'6", 215 lbs, Jr. 5-2, 2.15, 58.2 IP, 19 BB, 42 K's.
Dodgers took teammate Tom Windle in round 2, but I think I might like this guy a bit better. Great size. FB up to 94. Still developing secondary stuff. May not move as fast as Windle, but may well have a higher ceiling. Nice pick!
Round 10 #312 Tyler Rogers, RHP, Austin Peay St., 6'4", 190 lbs, Sr. 7-2, 1.63, 49.2 IP, 27 BB, 41 K's, 23 Saves.
College Closer from a smaller D1 program. His pic on the Austin Peay website looks like he is throwing sidearm or from down under. I think every bullpen should have 1 sidearmer from each side. Another nice pick.
Now that I've seen the top 10 picks, this draft is already growing on me. Interesting interview with John Barr on CSN Bay Area. He brushed aside questions about where Arroyo would play and stated, "he's an offensive player", making it clear that he is in love with the bat. Barr has definitely developed a profile of the type of hitter he is looking for. This draft will eventually go a long way toward proving or disproving whether his theories are right. I love the conviction though!
Down on the Farm: 6/6/2013
AAA Fresno Grizzlies came back from an 11 run deficit to outslug the Salt Lake City Bees 15-13:
Juan Perez(SS)- 2 for 5, 2B, HR(9), BB. BA= .296.
Gary Brown(CF)- 1 for 4, 2 BB. BA= .206.
Roger Kieschnick(RF)- 2 for 5, 2B, HR(8). BA= .300.
Tony Abreu(2B)- 3 for 3, 2B, SF, HBP. BA= .278.
Chris Dominguez(3B)- 2 for 5, 2B. BA= .283.
Sandy Rosario(RHP)- 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 3.18.
Heath Hembree(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K. ERA= 3.76.
Nice day for the hitters to pad their stat lines.
New Britain Rock Cats defeated the Richmond Flying Squirrels 9-4:
Adam Duvall(3B)- 2 for 4, 2B, HR(5). BA= .320.
Ricky Oropesa(1B)- 2 for 3, HR(4), BB. BA= .213.
Mark Minicozzi(DH)- 2 for 3, 2B, BB. BA= .351.
Drew Bowlin(RHP)- 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 2.08.
Scott Shuman(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 9.64.
Duvall is hitting .342/.390/.684 over his last 10 games. Ricky needs to string a few games like this together.
High A San Jose Giants beat the Lancaster Jethawks 8-3:
Angel Villalona(1B)- 2 for 5, 2 2B. BA= .247.
Mac Williamson(RF)- 3 for 4, 2B, HBP. BA= .244.
Clayton Blackburn(RHP)- 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K's, GO/AO= 7/1. ERA= 4.30.
Blackburn had his mojo back for this one. Angel V keeps mashing with a nice game from Williamson.
Low A Augusta Greenjackets stung the Greensboro Grasshoppers 7-2:
Jesus Galindo(CF)- 2 for 3, 2B, BB, HBP, 2 SB(31). BA= .295.
Stephen Branca(3B)- 3 for 5, 2B. BA= .222.
Alberto Robles(SS)- 2 for 3, BB, SB(1). BA= .263.
Joe Biagini(RHP)- 7 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K's, GO/AO= 11/5. ERA= 3.83.
This was Biagini's 4'th QS in a row. He's allowed just 5 ER in 27.2 IP with 4 BB's against 17 K's in that span.
DSL Giants were idle.
Juan Perez(SS)- 2 for 5, 2B, HR(9), BB. BA= .296.
Gary Brown(CF)- 1 for 4, 2 BB. BA= .206.
Roger Kieschnick(RF)- 2 for 5, 2B, HR(8). BA= .300.
Tony Abreu(2B)- 3 for 3, 2B, SF, HBP. BA= .278.
Chris Dominguez(3B)- 2 for 5, 2B. BA= .283.
Sandy Rosario(RHP)- 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 3.18.
Heath Hembree(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K. ERA= 3.76.
Nice day for the hitters to pad their stat lines.
New Britain Rock Cats defeated the Richmond Flying Squirrels 9-4:
Adam Duvall(3B)- 2 for 4, 2B, HR(5). BA= .320.
Ricky Oropesa(1B)- 2 for 3, HR(4), BB. BA= .213.
Mark Minicozzi(DH)- 2 for 3, 2B, BB. BA= .351.
Drew Bowlin(RHP)- 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 2.08.
Scott Shuman(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 9.64.
Duvall is hitting .342/.390/.684 over his last 10 games. Ricky needs to string a few games like this together.
High A San Jose Giants beat the Lancaster Jethawks 8-3:
Angel Villalona(1B)- 2 for 5, 2 2B. BA= .247.
Mac Williamson(RF)- 3 for 4, 2B, HBP. BA= .244.
Clayton Blackburn(RHP)- 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K's, GO/AO= 7/1. ERA= 4.30.
Blackburn had his mojo back for this one. Angel V keeps mashing with a nice game from Williamson.
Low A Augusta Greenjackets stung the Greensboro Grasshoppers 7-2:
Jesus Galindo(CF)- 2 for 3, 2B, BB, HBP, 2 SB(31). BA= .295.
Stephen Branca(3B)- 3 for 5, 2B. BA= .222.
Alberto Robles(SS)- 2 for 3, BB, SB(1). BA= .263.
Joe Biagini(RHP)- 7 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K's, GO/AO= 11/5. ERA= 3.83.
This was Biagini's 4'th QS in a row. He's allowed just 5 ER in 27.2 IP with 4 BB's against 17 K's in that span.
DSL Giants were idle.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Scouting the Draft: Giants Day 1 Review- Cutting Against the Grain
The Giants are well known for thumbing their nose at consensus and cutting against the grain of the draft. Boy, did they ever do both with this one?!! In a draft that was heavy on pitching, which has always been their forte, the Giants took a high school shortstop with the #25 pick in round 1 and for good measure, took another one in round 2, #64 albeit one who will likely move to 3B in the pros. Both players were ranked much lower their their draft position by virtually all pre-draft analysts.
So, what are the Giants up to here? Are they crazy? Are they punting the draft? Are they smarter than anyone else? Let's try to break it down. The key word in the previous sentence is "try".
A draft analyst/blogger named Kiley McDaniel went with a rumor that the Giants were planning to draft HS SS Christian Arroyo at #25 and sign him to an underslot contract. Turns out he was right, at least about the first part. BA had him ranked as the #102 draft prospect. He's out of Hernando HS, Brooksville, FL. He is 6'1", 180 lbs. He has a reputation as an excellent hitter who squares up balls. His HS stats, for what they are worth: BA= .524, 105 AB, 42 R, 55 H, 13 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB. The main knocks against him are lack of projectable power and lack of speed. There is some question about whether he can stick at SS. There is talk of him possibly moving to 2B or even catcher. He seems to be something of an academic nerd who sported a 4.4 GPA and took AP calculus. He is committed to Florida, but has said he will sign if he price is right, which he has not defined further.
I'll say this. If you are someone who dreams on 5 tool guys, you probably hate this pick. If you are of the persuasion that there is only one tool that really counts, the hit tool, you will have a lot more equanimity about it.
In round 2, pick 64, the Giants selected Ryder Jones out of Watauga HS, Boone, NC. He is bigger than Arroyo at 6'3", 185 lbs. He is B-L, T-R. He played SS in HS but was listed in BA as a 3B. He also pitches with a 90+ MPH FB, but is expected to develop as a position player. BA's scouting comment was that he has "solid power" at the plate. His HS batting stats, again, for what they are worth: BA= .461. 76 AB, 31 R, 35 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB. The kicker is he is committed to Stanford which, if the rumors about Arroyo signing below slot are correct, may explain what the Giants intend to do with the money saved, sign Jones!
I'll say this. I guess Jones is a 3 tool player: hit, hit for power, throw. Again, the hit tool is what stands out. Are we seeing a John Barr trend here?
My guess is these picks are part of a grand draft strategy the Giants worked out ahead of time and they either know or are pretty sure they can get both players signed. It will be extremely interesting to see if they have any more tricks up their sleeve over the rest of the top 10 picks which encompass their bonus pool. Will they spend the pool on their first 2 HS picks and go college senior the rest of the way, or will they push the HS theme down to the $500 K bonus level or lower? My own bias is that if you go HS, you better go all in with multiple picks and hope 1 or 2 pan out.
I'm not doing cartwheels, but I'm also not ready to pan these picks. There is certainly something to be said for valuing the hit tool above all and both of these kids seem to have it. HS picks require a ton of patience, though, and us internet denizens tend to be a rather impatient bunch.
So, what are the Giants up to here? Are they crazy? Are they punting the draft? Are they smarter than anyone else? Let's try to break it down. The key word in the previous sentence is "try".
A draft analyst/blogger named Kiley McDaniel went with a rumor that the Giants were planning to draft HS SS Christian Arroyo at #25 and sign him to an underslot contract. Turns out he was right, at least about the first part. BA had him ranked as the #102 draft prospect. He's out of Hernando HS, Brooksville, FL. He is 6'1", 180 lbs. He has a reputation as an excellent hitter who squares up balls. His HS stats, for what they are worth: BA= .524, 105 AB, 42 R, 55 H, 13 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB. The main knocks against him are lack of projectable power and lack of speed. There is some question about whether he can stick at SS. There is talk of him possibly moving to 2B or even catcher. He seems to be something of an academic nerd who sported a 4.4 GPA and took AP calculus. He is committed to Florida, but has said he will sign if he price is right, which he has not defined further.
I'll say this. If you are someone who dreams on 5 tool guys, you probably hate this pick. If you are of the persuasion that there is only one tool that really counts, the hit tool, you will have a lot more equanimity about it.
In round 2, pick 64, the Giants selected Ryder Jones out of Watauga HS, Boone, NC. He is bigger than Arroyo at 6'3", 185 lbs. He is B-L, T-R. He played SS in HS but was listed in BA as a 3B. He also pitches with a 90+ MPH FB, but is expected to develop as a position player. BA's scouting comment was that he has "solid power" at the plate. His HS batting stats, again, for what they are worth: BA= .461. 76 AB, 31 R, 35 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB. The kicker is he is committed to Stanford which, if the rumors about Arroyo signing below slot are correct, may explain what the Giants intend to do with the money saved, sign Jones!
I'll say this. I guess Jones is a 3 tool player: hit, hit for power, throw. Again, the hit tool is what stands out. Are we seeing a John Barr trend here?
My guess is these picks are part of a grand draft strategy the Giants worked out ahead of time and they either know or are pretty sure they can get both players signed. It will be extremely interesting to see if they have any more tricks up their sleeve over the rest of the top 10 picks which encompass their bonus pool. Will they spend the pool on their first 2 HS picks and go college senior the rest of the way, or will they push the HS theme down to the $500 K bonus level or lower? My own bias is that if you go HS, you better go all in with multiple picks and hope 1 or 2 pan out.
I'm not doing cartwheels, but I'm also not ready to pan these picks. There is certainly something to be said for valuing the hit tool above all and both of these kids seem to have it. HS picks require a ton of patience, though, and us internet denizens tend to be a rather impatient bunch.
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
Scouting the Draft: Random Thoughts
The annual MLB First Year Player Draft starts tonight with the first 2 rounds. Including supplemental round and compensation picks, the first 73 players will be chosen tomorrow. Rounds 3-10 will be on Friday and rounds 11-40 on Saturday.
Experts consensus has a top tier of 3 college players: RHP Mark Appel, RHP Johnathan Gray and 3B Kris Bryant. While these 3 players are all excellent prospects, all 3 have their warts too. Appel is a senior at Stanford and has somtimes failed to pitch up to his scouting reports. Gray kind of burst onto the scene this year. Bryant has tremendous power, but has struggled to make contact at times.
IMO, there is a second tier of draft prospects that goes 4 deep: HS OF Clint Frazier, HS OF Austin Meadows, College 3B Colin Moran, HS RHP Kohl Stewart. I am personally not convinced that the talent after pick 7 is substantially better or more likely to succeed in the pros than players who will be available all the way into Round 3!
All the experts seem to think that Houston will take either Appel or Gray at #1 due to the fact that the top tier talent dovetails nicely with organizational need for pitching. I'm not so sure. Last year, Houston pointedly took Carlos Correa, a first round talent, but not considered top tier, and signed him to an underslot deal which was still very lucrative for the player and distributed the money they saved on the bonus to lower picks which enabled them to take tougher to sign high school talent in later top 10 rounds. While the jury is still out on how that turns out for the Astros, all signs point to them being quite pleased with themselves for pulling off that strategy. I think they will do that again this year.
The draft slotting system puts tremendous pressure on teams at the top of the draft to pay close to their slot bonus. Given the flatness of the talent curve in this year's draft, being in that position may not be where you want to be. If the Giants can get a player approximately equal in talent to the #10 pick at #25, that is a nice chunk of change they have saved on bonus money with no loss of return on the draft.
John Barr confirms the relative parity of the talent pool by saying he thinks there could be as many as 8-10 players that the Giants consider first round talents available for them to choose at #25. This makes predicting who they might take akin to finding a needle in the proverbial haystack.
This draft appears to be much stronger and deeper on the pitching side. I'd break it down this way: College Pitching- B+. HS Pitching- B. HS Hitters- C+. College Hitters D. The college pitchers get a half letter grade higher due to the presence of Appel and Gray at the top. After that, the HS arms might even have a slight edge because the talent runs a bit deeper on the HS side. While there are a few interesting college hitters scattered around, they tend to be few and far between. I think pretty much everybody agrees this is a terrible year for college hitters.
You would think that the Giants would draft pitching in the first round since that is their tendency and that is the strength of the draft. Again, I'm not so sure. The Giants like to cut against the grain. They may well decide to reach for a hitter at #25 thinking they can get first round pitching talent in round 2 or even round 3 whereas if they took a pitcher at #25, there won't be any good hitters left in rounds 2 and 3. We'll see.
Chris Haft of sfgiants.com seems to think they are particularly interested in HS SS Oscar Mercado, HS C Nick Ciuffo and college OF-RHP Michael Lorenzen. Another rumor out there has them drafting HS SS Christian Arroyo and signing him to an underslot bonus. If this is true, it would imply that they will also go after HS talent in subsequent rounds and want extra money sign it. Last year, the Giants stuck almost exclusively to college talent that they knew they could sign for near slot money. It is possible that after seeing how easy it was for teams to sign HS players down to around $500 K, it has emboldened them to go after HS players this year, especially since the talent pool at the HS level seems deeper.
If you are interested in names of players who BA ranks at the Giants picks. Here they are:
#25 Phil Bickford, HS RHP
#64 Rowdy Tellez, HS OF
#101 Mason Smith, HS OF
#132 Brandon Thomas college OF(Sr).
#162 Jamie Westbrook, HS 2B
#192 Ryan Cordell, college OF.
Shankbone and a couple of other guys ran the Giants community mock draft over at Minor League Ball. That mock draft lasted 4 rounds. Their picks were:
#25 Rob Kaminsky, HS LHP.
#64 Trey Masek, College RHP
#101 Mason Smith, HS OF
#132 Daniel Palka, College OF.
I think this is a very realistic mock draft and one the Giants could well end up following. Kaminsky is a smallish LHP who has strong stuff with very advanced command for a HS pitcher. He could be a fast mover out of HS a la Madison Bumgarner. Masek is a college pitcher who again has great pitchability. Smith is kind of a sleeper HS prospect out of Idaho with some helium while Palka is a college masher straight out of the John Barr mold.
So, who do I think the Giants will take in Round 1? I have no idea. The field is wide open. I think there may well be some fire behind the smoke of the Arroyo rumors. The Giants love their up-the-middle position players almost as much as they love pitching. There are enough SS rumors connected to the Giants that I have a strong feeling that is where they may be looking. One name I can't shake, if he is still on the board when the Giants pick at #25, is JC SS Tim Anderson who looks like he has all the upside in the world and can stick at the position.
Down on the Farm: 6/5/2013
AAA Fresno Grizzlies were idle.
AA Richmond Flying Squirrels edged the New Britain Rock Cats 3-2:
Adam Duvall(3B)- 2 for 4, 2B, 3B. BA= .313.
Andrew Susac(C)- 2 for 4, 2B. BA= .275.
Ryan Lollis(DH)- 2 for 3. BA= .290.
Jack Snodgrass(LHP)- 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 2.04.
Daryl Maday(RHP)- 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(12). ERA= 2.45.
High A Modesto Nuts topped the San Jose Giants 5-1:
Devin Harris(LF)- 2 for 4, 2B. BA= .263.
Eric Surkamp(LHP)- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 0.00.
Edwin Escobar(LHP)- 4 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 3.62.
Bryce Bandilla(LHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 3.94.
Great to see Eric Surkamp on the rehab trail. Bumping the regular starter to make room for a rehabber is something that generally happens only for MLB level players. I think that says something about how the organization views Surkamp. This will be most interesting to follow!
Low A Greensboro Grasshoppers squeezed past the Augusta Greenjackets 2-1:
Mitch Delfino(3B)- 2 for 4, HR(7). BA= .246.
Kendry Flores(RHP)- 8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K's. ERA= 3.00.
Second game in a row for Delfino to hit a dinger. He has a 4 game hit streak in which he is 6 for 16. Flores got Cained here. He now has 51 K's against just 13 BB's in 63 IP. He has a strong flyball tendency.
DSL Giants beat the Reds 4-2:
Royel Astacio(3B, 19 yo)- 2 for 4. BA= .200.
Robinson Medrano(DH, 17 yo)- 1 for 3, 3B, BB. BA= .250.
Kleiber Rivas(C, 18 yo)- 2 for 4, 2B. BA= .500.
Jonathan Loaisiga(RHP, 18 yo)- 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K's, GO/AO= 8/3. ERA= 1.80.
Jose Morel(RHP, 19 yo)- 4 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 2.25.
Morel is a holdover who had a line of 0-1, 8.71, 10.1 IP, 13 BB, 7 K's last year.
AA Richmond Flying Squirrels edged the New Britain Rock Cats 3-2:
Adam Duvall(3B)- 2 for 4, 2B, 3B. BA= .313.
Andrew Susac(C)- 2 for 4, 2B. BA= .275.
Ryan Lollis(DH)- 2 for 3. BA= .290.
Jack Snodgrass(LHP)- 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 2.04.
Daryl Maday(RHP)- 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(12). ERA= 2.45.
High A Modesto Nuts topped the San Jose Giants 5-1:
Devin Harris(LF)- 2 for 4, 2B. BA= .263.
Eric Surkamp(LHP)- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 0.00.
Edwin Escobar(LHP)- 4 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 3.62.
Bryce Bandilla(LHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 3.94.
Great to see Eric Surkamp on the rehab trail. Bumping the regular starter to make room for a rehabber is something that generally happens only for MLB level players. I think that says something about how the organization views Surkamp. This will be most interesting to follow!
Low A Greensboro Grasshoppers squeezed past the Augusta Greenjackets 2-1:
Mitch Delfino(3B)- 2 for 4, HR(7). BA= .246.
Kendry Flores(RHP)- 8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K's. ERA= 3.00.
Second game in a row for Delfino to hit a dinger. He has a 4 game hit streak in which he is 6 for 16. Flores got Cained here. He now has 51 K's against just 13 BB's in 63 IP. He has a strong flyball tendency.
DSL Giants beat the Reds 4-2:
Royel Astacio(3B, 19 yo)- 2 for 4. BA= .200.
Robinson Medrano(DH, 17 yo)- 1 for 3, 3B, BB. BA= .250.
Kleiber Rivas(C, 18 yo)- 2 for 4, 2B. BA= .500.
Jonathan Loaisiga(RHP, 18 yo)- 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K's, GO/AO= 8/3. ERA= 1.80.
Jose Morel(RHP, 19 yo)- 4 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 2.25.
Morel is a holdover who had a line of 0-1, 8.71, 10.1 IP, 13 BB, 7 K's last year.
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