We'll continue our numbers review with a look at team leaders:
Hitting(300+ AB for rate stats):
BA: Luis Arraez- .324, Jung Hoo Lee- .276, Casey Schmitt- .271.
OBP: Bryce Eldridge- .364, Luis Arraez- .360, Rafael Devers- .340.
SLG%: Rafael Devers- .525, Casey Schmitt- .483, Bryce Eldridge- .461.
Hits: Jung Hoo Lee- 149, Rafael Devers- 144, Luis Arraez- 136.
Doubles: Rafael Devers- 36, Jung Hoo Lee- 31, Willy Adames- 25.
Triples: Luis Arraez- 7, Jung Hoo Lee- 4, Drew Gilbert/Heliot Ramos- 3.
HR: Rafael Devers- 37, Willy Adames- 21, Casey Schmitt- 21.
Runs: Rafael Devers- 88, Jung Hoo Lee- 65, Willy Adames- 62.
RBI: Rafael Devers- 98, Bryce Eldridge- 57, Jung Hoo Lee- 57.
My Take(s): Can we bring Luis Arraez back? The Giants desperately need Casey Schmitt's righthanded bat in the lineup. They just need to figure out where he's going to play. Jung Hoo Lee was pretty good until a late season collapse. Would he benefit from being a platoon player or more of a utility OF? Willy Adames had an outside shot at another 30 HR season before his elbow injury took him out but severe contact issues and terrible defense, possibly due to a chronic back condition, more than negated his power. Looking ahead, there is too much uncertainty from too many players making too much money who may be blocking younger, cheaper and better options.
Pitching)50+IP for rate stats):
Doc, I think you nailed your takes on both what the stats show offensively and with the pitching. And it’s just about the most depressing thing to look at. Mix in a lot of crappy defense from this past season and it feels like being a Giants fan for the next few years is going to be a real lesson in keeping perspective. To me, watching baseball, even poorly played baseball, is better than no baseball. The stories are interesting and the hope for a new winning season renews every year with the coming of Spring Training. But, realistically, I just don’t see a way forward for a successful team in 2027. The gap between what we have and what we need is just too large. I’m still going to watch and root but my expectation is that they are going to lose 2 out of 3 way more than they will win 3 out of 4. To coin a phrase, it going to be a “big league hang with ‘em” kind of season. And we may be in for a few of these.
ReplyDeleteHello Doc...
ReplyDeleteYou encapsulated the entire Giants situation in one sentence: "Looking ahead, there is too much uncertainty from too many players making too much money who may be blocking younger, cheaper and better options." Other than replacing "may be" with "are", this is my sentiment exactly.
- Chapman (Schmidt) is in the 'blocking right now' phase.
- Lee (Davidson, possibly Jordan) and Adames (Gonzales, Hernandez, possibly Level) are in the 'will be blocking within the next year' phase.
- For 2B, I would use the money saved by giving Kilen or Level a chance instead of signing Arraez, to write off Chapman's contract (i.e., by offering to include money in a trade).
- As for pitching, I believe the Giants biggest need is for a new pitching coach. As I recall, during the Bochy/Righetti years, the Giants formed a bullpen that won 3 WS in 5 years by developing the Core 4 (Affeldt, Lopes, Casilla, and Romo) and using 3 great closers (Wilson, Romo, Bumgarner) to clinch each WS win. The bullpen can be developed.
- I also believe the Giants need starters more than relievers. I see no current starters blocking what could be the best group of young SP prospects (Flora, Marquez, Breshnahan, Boleman) the Giants have had in 15 years.
And if they can see this as well, I believe the Giants will be competitive far sooner that is generally believed.
-kar120c
Enjoyed this take.
DeletePrediction for the upcoming Free Agent market: Luis Arráez is projected to command a multi-year deal averaging around $20 million or more per year in annual value (AAV), with total contract predictions ranging roughly between $50 million to $80 million over 3 to 4+ years.
ReplyDeleteHe was mixed help to the Phillies, and he didn't play in the Wild Card Series because of a left ankle sprain.
That size contract targets a solid mid-to-upper-tier starting pitcher and high-leverage veteran arm rather than top-of-the-scale franchise ace.
As nice as Arraez would be, two of those pitchers would probably help the Giants more.
OTOH, how about all 3?
I read in a Phillies based article that an unnamed NL executive said that the price for Arraez would probably be around 5 years/$100 million. They were tying the amount to Nico Horner's 6 years/$140 million extension. Being a Phillies-based article, they said it was probably out of the Phillies' price range. I really liked Arraez and his enthusiasm but with the current roster, I don't see how he could fit on the Giants unless they play the deferral game.
ReplyDeleteArraez' numbers dropped off significantly down the stretch then got injured so missed the postseason. Alex P and Cole Kuiper on Giants Talk seemed to think his value took a hit after the trade but that also might be a reason for the Giants to stay away too.
DeleteStill, his were must-watch at-bat and his attitude was old-school and positive. Not much made me smile this year, but Luis did. I would put up with a lot to see him back at 2B.
DeleteAnd yeah, I know it won’t happen.
Totally agree on your opinion of the Starting rotation...A "shambles" is putting it nicely especially with 4 maybe kids having TJ surgery. Molina was a good story except for one game, but hard to count on...You need at least 2 surefire starters, maybe 3. And I don't mean the Mahle/Hauser retread types even though Hauser seemed to find himself.
ReplyDeleteDitto with the horrendous OF. As bad as last years after Buster got done with it I would have no problem dropping every single one of them, but it's not likely...They need AT LEAST 2 Ofs and i don't mean fringy platoon types. Now if it's a rebuild, you just go with the likes of DAVISDSON, BENDURA, COX, BERRICOTO . A shambles still, but a young shambles!
BUSTER need to get it all right after last years debacle.
SteveVA
With no Competitive Balance Tax/limits/thresholds in place for the future, isn't speculation concerning free agents for naught and just an exercise of futility, otherwise nonsense?
ReplyDeleteNeither MLB nor MLBPA like the present system.
Owners want a cap (to save themselves from themselves).
The Union wants "to reject a salary cap, nearly double the minimum salary to $1.5 million by 2027, and implement a *competitive integrity tax* forcing low-spending teams to pay penalties if they fail to meet a $150 million payroll floor" (according to Google AI Overview).
The Dodgers, and at least several others, seem to want the wild wild west: Everyone should do whatever they want.
If LAD wins again, and probably will unless Lady Luck steps in, the system is certifiably broken. Maybe the Yankees will agree.
Rotation jostling spring '28 could be really something among the guys in rotation that closed this season & 4 Tommy Johns 18+ months beyond surgery & presuming progress by '27 opening Richmond rotation full of top100prospect caliber pitchers (+ Whitman in mix too)
ReplyDeleteAt least we have HOPE: Season ending MLB.com Top 100 prospect rankings- #7 Josuar Gonzalez, #25 Luis Hernandez, #28 Jackson Flora (4th ranked pitcher overall), #43 Jhonny Level, #94 Ramon Marquez
ReplyDeleteDoc, certainly you will be expanding on this and making corrections as needed, but looking forward for the idle Giants, the World Series ends no later than October 31st, but it could end as early as the 27th (sweep) or 28th if the LOSER wins ONE.
ReplyDeleteThen the fun begins for teams and their own eligible free agents for 5 days until everyone is really a free agent and can sign anywhere.
Will there be a flurry of signings before December 1 because a lock out is all but guaranteed considering how far the sides are apart, like they're in different worlds right now.
My question is can Schmidt handle short defensively? If he can....move Adames to 2nd base. Kills two birds with one stone.....Schmidt has a place to play and Adames can't be allowed another season of defensive gaffs at short. And before people starts saying trade Adames...etc etc etc. He is not going anywhere with the amount of money left on his contract....so he has to play somewhere.
ReplyDeleteAs for the rotation, Roupp and Webb are locks. Houser will be in one of the other spots(he is already signed through next season). The rotation does need bulking up....but they have to be better than what they did last year with Mahle. But above ALL...they need to restructure the bullpen. They need a closer....they also need at least a couple more higher leverage arms to use in the 7th and 8th...to get the game to the closer. Rodriquez will be back....but we can't assume he will be back as the force he was before his injury, at least initially. Work out the 5th/6th inning guys out of the younger canidates left over from this year. They need to STAY AWAY from trying to build the bullpen out of waiver claims and retreaded guys with injury issues.
The bulk of the reliever free agent class are retread pitchers and pitchers with injury issues. There are a couple of relievers I like at the top of the class but after the top 4, there are a lot of the same guys who pop up on the FA list every year like Jansen and a lot of "old friends" like Trevino, Lucchesi, Junis, TayRogers, etc. Out of the top 4, we do not know who will get extended a qualifying offer and it may not be worth giving up draft picks and bonus pool money. Also, going after guys who throw hundos carries a greater TJ risk. This is the riskiest position to throw FA money at so they have to be really careful.
DeleteAgree with what you said earlier that the Giants organization needs to do a lot of soul searching. A year like this doesn't fall only on Buster and TonyV, the FO iand ownership are responsible also . I'm ok with the Giants trying to win and rebuild at the same time. They have too many big $ contracts to solely rebuild. Please find a position for Casey Schmitt to play. Didn't like how they moved him around too much, probably due to lack of depth on the roster.
ReplyDeleteCasey Schmitt seems like the odd man out after Buster's interview with Alex P. Buster is oddly focused on the idea of Marcelo Mayer living up to his post-draft hype and being the every day 2B. Chapman and Adames are set at 3B and SS assuming they are both able to stand upright. They obviously don't need Casey at 1B or DH. That leaves LF and it's not clear Casey is the frontrunner there either. I've seen speculation that Casey might be trade bait.
DeleteIf Schmitt is traded let's hope value is received, and, preferably, he is "buried" in some obscure American League East team we won't see more than 3 games a year, like the Rays.
DeleteI’ve heard that Schmitt will probably end up in LF as they have too many left-handed outfielders.
DeleteI've gotta know. Why so many TJ victims? Way more than it should be n. Birdsong, McDonald, Tidwell.
ReplyDeleteI suspect the it's the Giants catching up with the rest of the game in emphasizing velocity and spin rates, both of which put more stress on the arm.
DeleteThen perhaps they should either decrease velocity or teach new pitches to their kids. They're getting absolutely no ROI on their young pitchers this way. Imagine if they approached the early 10s pitching staff like this. How many would be on the shelf instead of winning world series. It's the location. Not the speed and rotation.
DeleteI say that they find some team to take Chapman this off season. Cheap. Maybe the giants eat 50% of the contract. Get him out of here. Give the spot to Schmitt.
ReplyDelete1. Easier said than done. 2. That's not the vibe Buster gave in his interview with Pavs, like not even close.
DeleteThis off-season will open with a B-A-N-G for the Giants.
ReplyDeleteDecisions galore from the 40-man roster to what minor leaguers to protect to which TJ recovering pitchers to hang on to to what coaches will be replaced while perhaps trying to unload any of the overpaid underperforming aging players with guaranteed salaries.
Plus they have nine (9) players eligible for arbitration headed by Schmitt and Doval to a bunch of pitchers who did and did not perform last year to others that were on the IL with TJ surgery who might be able to compete in 2027 and those who won't be able to pitch in 2027.
Buster is saying, it seems, that the Giants will compete in 2027. That must mean he is expecting the players who underperformed last year will recover, such as Chapman and Adames and the which of the 21 players who had negative or "0" bWARs last year.
It will be quite an off-season AND we don't even know it there will be a 2027 season with both sides, Ownership and players, dug into untenable positions.
i assume more good talent is better than less good talent and yet the third best OPS (Schmitt) on the team seems to be an odd man out? Chapman will eternally frustrate at the plate and another year older at 3B. not that i have answers to the existential issues related to his contract as well as Adames and Lee. just can't see how they can improve with all these fellas on the roster when March 1 rolls around. -es
ReplyDelete