Ask and ye shall receive! This is not strictly a Hot Stove League Update so a good time to try out a new topic series and by popular demand to boot. As you recall, it wasn't that long ago the Giants had 10 outfielders on their 40-man roster including 4 or 5 who were out of options. After DFA's of Joey Wiemer who as acquired by trade for cash considerations from the Marlins and Justin Dean who was claimed off waivers from the Dodgers, the count now stands at 6 outfielders. If the Giants do not add any more outfielders before spring training, those 6 players will compete for up to 5 outfield active roster spots. I don't think Turner Hill OF, on the Sacramento roster, is a serious candidate but Victor Bericoto OF/1B and Bo Davidson OF from the AA Richmond roster could be long shots to open the season with the Giants. Since Grant McCray OF has options the logjam can be completely cleared by sending him down. I do find it interesting that for all the talk about outfield defense, Jerar Encarnacion OF and Luis Matos OF were apparently ahead of Wiemer and Dean on the outfield depth chart.
Which brings us to three players who appear to be at career crossroads with the direction they take not completely under their control: Luis Matos OF, Casey Schmitt 2B/3B and Bryce Eldridge 1B/DH. We'll start with Eldridge who I meditated on extensively over the last few days. I think I have come to a conclusion on him which is the Giants absolutely must find out what they have in him rather than trading him for shorter term talent no matter how good that talent might be. The kid just has such a fantastically high ceiling they can't give up on him so easily, so soon and risk seeing him hit 40 HR's per season for another team for the next 10 years. Eldridge does have options so the Giants can send him down for some additional seasoning but are there really interim options available who are locks to be better than Eldridge? He really doesn't project to be all that bad. Four projection systems listed on his Fangraphs bio page have him 14-18 HR with BA's of .232-246 and K rates under 30%. Sure, there is a good chance he doesn't reach his projection numbers but there is also a chance he surpasses them and hits more like 25-30 HR's. Put him in the lineup every day batting in the 7'th or 8'th hole for at least 2 months before re-evaluating him. Oh! And definitely do not trade him!
Casey Schmitt is another crossroads player. There is a lot of talk about the Giants acquiring any number of second basemen by trade which would block Casey from the last potential infield position he could play. Schmitt has had his growing pains but has gone from wildly swinging at everything to at least acceptable plate discipline and the power is real. Again, preseason projections on Casey are not terrible ranging from 10-14 HR with .235-.241 BA and K rates below 25%. Again yes, those numbers represent a mean range of possible outcomes and he may not make them but he also may surpass them if his plate discipline and maturity as a hitter continue to progress. The Giants could do worse than putting Casey out there on Opening Day and putting their trust in him to continue his development.
The last "crossroads" player is Luis Matos. Now, the thinning of the outfield logjam may foreshadow another acquisition but as of right now, Matos appears to be a lock to make the Opening Day active roster. The projections are not quite as optimistic on him as Eldridge and Schmitt. They range from 10-12 HR and .245-.252 BA, but his K rate projects as under 15% which may be something Buster Posey is looking at with interest. It's possible that at best, Matos is looking at a short-side platoon with Drew Gilbert or competition from Jerar Encarnacion or the Giants may just go out and acquire a more proven player for RF but Matos prospects appear much brighter today than they did a couple of weeks ago.
Correct me if I’m wrong but it seems like you are in support of trying Eldridge in the outfield? I think this is one solution to the OF logjam is just plug Eldridge in at RF and see what happens. Matos is a tricky one. Not sure he is listening to coaches with the amount of struggles he has and lack of adjustments. One small thing I noticed last year and it took being in the third base side lower box to realize but Matos nearly is doing the splits in the batters box. His feet were 5 feet from each other that game and he looked like he was off balance and had no power. Maybe this years coaches can get through to him. Schmidt just needs reps he has some very attractive skills and seems to have the attitude to make it.
ReplyDeleteThe easiest and quickest way to get Eldridge in the daily lineup to get much needed MLB PA's is to make him the Co-1B/DH with Devers. I am pretty sure the only OF position he can play, especially at Oracle Park, is LF. They might have to try Ramos in RF for that to work or else just use Eldridge as a back up for now.
DeleteDoc, you’ve made me a very happy man. Woke up this morning to this. Bravo!
ReplyDeleteA jolly good read too.
My head says that it will be Matos / Gilbert / Ramos / Hooleegans with a utility guy to start. To my eye Jerar didn't seem that athletic or fast enough to man RF, so he'd have to really do well at the plate to be a 4th OF. Will they play Tyler Fitzgerald in the outfield and use him as the utility guy? My hope would be a person like Brendan Donovan but that's being wishful.
ReplyDeleteIt's still possible Buster et al could go out and get a right fielder but the tea leaves are saying they've all but doused the flames on the Hot Stove.
DeleteIf the Giants sign a player that costs them their 2nd round pick in the 2026 Amateur Draft, #55 overall, it would cost them the #55 pick in the MLB draft.
ReplyDeleteIn this Century (26 picks) only 1 player had a career bWAR above 4: Brett Anderson (bWAR = 10.9), which, according to Google A.I., "a career WAR of 11 signifies a player who contributed very little, if anything, above a readily available substitute."
...and your point is....?
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