Tuesday, February 4, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #11 Mason Black

Mason Black RHP.  DOB:  12/10/1999.  6' 3", 230 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 3.

2024(AAA):  5-6, 4.59, 84.1 IP, 9.28 K/9, 4.16 BB/9.
2024(MLB):  1-5, 6.44, 36.1 IP, 7.68 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.

Black had a rough introduction to the major leagues in 2024 but did have a couple of really good starts.  Looking at his pitch selection and values on Fangraphs, he was exclusively sinker-slider in 2023 and added a 4 seam FB in 2024 which produced a pitch mix of 1/3 each 4-seam, sinker, slider.  Interestingly the 4-seam was his least effective pitch.  His average velocity for both the 4-seam and sinker were about 92.5 MPH.  He also threw a changeup but less than 5% of pitches.  Projections like him a lot better for 2025 with ERA's in the mid-4's.  Look for him to tweak his pitch mix in spring training and start the season on AAA.  He still has 2 options years.  He may need to develop the changeup more if he wants to remain a SP.

Monday, February 3, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #12 Diego Velasquez

Diego Velasquez SS/2B.  DOB:  10/1/2003.  B-S, T-R.  6' 1", 150 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent Jan 2021.

2024(A+):  .274/.357/.389, 16 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 18 SB, 10.1 BB%, 17.0 K%, 318 PA.
2024(AA):  .313/.389/.374, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 9.4 BB%, 17.1 K%, 170 PA.

Before we get started with our profile, I saw Velasquez play for the A San Jose Giants in 2023 and let's just say he doesn't weigh 150 lbs.  Velasquez signed a $900 K bonus in 2021.  He was immediately assigned to the Arizona complex.  His numbers for his first two pro seasons were not impressive but in 2023 he batted .298 with 8 HR over a full season with A level San Jose at age 19.  He moved up to A+ for his age 20 season and put up similar numbers and got a mid-late season promotion to AA where he hit .312.  Now, AA Richmond and Norwich before that have a long history of dashing the dreams of many Giants hitting prospects so I am impressed with a switch-hitting middle infielder who bats .312 there.

Velasquez is a prospect you don't hear much chatter about. The raps on him are he looks a bit chunky for a shortstop and he doesn't hit for enough power for a lesser defensive position.  He's still young, though with plenty of time for power to come.  Unfortunately he will run into the now-familiar dilemma for international prospects in that he will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft after his age 21 season.  I would think he will start this season back in AA Richmond but should be somewhere on the Giants middle-infield depth chart for a potential call up although things would have to go far south for that development. 

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Hot Stove League Update: Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty RHP who many analysts and fans thought would make a nice addition to the Giants starting rotation signed with the Tigers, the team he started the 2024 season with, for 2 years/$35 M.  The contract is heavily frontloaded with $25 M coming in 2025 and just $10 M guaranteed for 2026.  It does contain and opt-out after the first season and the 2026 salary escalates to $20 M if he makes at least 15 starts in 2025.  

Because of the way the contract is frontloaded, it is a little less onerous than most opt-out contracts.  Best case scenario for the Tigers is he pitches like an ace again, and it ends up being a 1 years contract for $25 M or they could even trade him at the deadline again and get even more young talent in return.  Worst case scenario is he is a complete bust and/or gets hurt and he comes back for $10 M next season.  Not so great would be if he pitches exactly 15 games and they have to pay $20 M in 2026 for a player you would not ordinarily offer that much for.

You may be thinking that in spite of the opt-out, this isn't such a terrible deal from a team perspective and why didn't the Giants sign him.  Well, a week ago Flaherty was on a podcast where he said he loved pitching for the Tigers, didn't want to be traded at the deadline and would love to go back so most likely he would not have take this deal from the Giants even if Buster Posey relented on his reported vow to just say no to opt-outs.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #13 Lisbel Diaz

Lisbel Diaz OF.  DOB:  7/19/2005.  B-R, T-R.  6' 2", 201 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent July 2023(Cuba).

2023(DSL):  .312/.386/.455, 3 HR, 8.0 BB%, 11.4 K%, 88 PA.
2024(ACL):  .329/.411/.539, 4 2B, 4 HR, 8.9 BB%, 16.7 K%, 90 PA.
2024(A):  .279/.333/.433, 12 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 8 SB, 5.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, 255 PA.

If there is one prospect I think I may have too low on my Top 50 Giants Prospects list, it's Lisbel Diaz.  Young for level contact hitter with emerging power.  Might need to tone down aggression at the plate and needs to get more balls in the air, but he has 3 years of development before Rule 5 eligibility and is likely to play at A+ at age 19 so has plenty of time to work on these issues.  His big test will come at AA where he probably won't play until 2026 but don't bet against him forcing a promotion this season.  Highlight of 2024 season was a 5-hit game 8/25.

Saturday, February 1, 2025

Hot Stove League Update: Does Buster Posey Have Zero Tolerance For Opt-Outs?

There is an article up on Fansided.com authored by someone named Zachary Rotman who quotes former GM Jim Bowden from a podcast called Foul Territory.  Here is the Bowden quote:  "Buster Posey is completely opposed to opt-outs.  He does not want them.  That's a real, philosophical, in-cement viewpoint that he has right now in his first year running the Giants."

I wish I had a more reliable source for this but it does fit with the tea leaves I am reading, so am not at all surprised.  Since Scott Boras seems to insist on opt-outs for almost all of his free agent contracts and since a high percentage of top-talent free agents are Scott Boras clients, this may play a bigger role in the Giants relative lack of free agent activity than penurious owners or negative player perceptions of the organization. 

BTW, if this is truly Buster Posey's position, I fully support it.  IMO, opt-outs are a big reason why the Giants as an organization failed to gain traction in the FZ era.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #14 Wade Meckler

Wade Meckler OF.  DOB:  4/21/2000.  B-L, T-R.  5' 10", 178 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 8.

2024(ACL):  .228/.343/.263, 5 SB, 13.4 BB%, 19.4 K%, 67 PA.
2024(A):  .235/.339/.314, HR, 13.6 BB%, 16.9 K%, 59 PA.
2024(A+):  .429/.526/.500, SB, 21.1 BB%, 15.8 K%, 19 PA.
2024(AA):  .324/.405/.378, 11.9 BB%, 23.9 K%, 42 PA.
2024(AAA):  .280/.366/.423, 8 HR, 3 SB, 9.7 BB%, 12.8 K%, 196 PA.

Meckler is a good athlete but physically small.  Great hit tool but lacking in power coming out of college.  He rocketed through the system in 2023 and got rushed up to the majors and was physically overwhelmed by MLB pltching.  He worked on getting stronger but got a late start to the 2024 season and missed time due to injury in June and spent most of the season rehabbing in the lower minors.  He finally got back to AAA on 8/1.  Then something interesting happened.  The stronger version of himself showed up and he hit 8 HR's over his next 44 games.  So, if you add significant power to his already excellent contact skills and plate discipline, you have a pretty exciting hitter.  

Meckler is part of a logjam of young players who FZ rushed through the system.  A big part of Buster's initial challenge is to sort out which of those players are part of the Giants future core and which aren't.  I hope Meckler gets another shot at MLB PA's at some point but probably starts 2025 in AAA.

Friday, January 31, 2025

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Dean Curley

Dean Curley SS, College.  DOB:  4/15/2004.  B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 212 lbs.

2024(Tennessee):  .285/.386/.502, 12 HR, 9 SB, 11.6 BB%, 17.5 K%, 268 PA.

Draft-eligible sophomore.  Highly rated prospect out of HS who chose to go to college at elite program.  Curley is big and a little bulky/muscular for a shortstop but has handled the role in an elite college conference.  His top-rated tool is Arm at 65.  Bat is plus hit and plus power.  Most likely ends up at 3B in the pros.  Again, I like him better than some higher rated draft prospects on MLB's board.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #15 Joe Whitman

Joe Whitman LHP.  DOB:  9/17/2001.  6' 5", 200 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 2C

2024(A):  1-5, 4.29, 50.1 IP, 9.66 K/9, 4.65 BB/9.
2024(A+):  2-3, 4.96, 52.2 IP, 9.23 K/9, 1.88 BB/9.

Whitman was widely considered the top LHP in the 2023 draft.  He got MLB SP size and scouting reports give him a low-mid 90's FB with a 60 grade slider and 50 grade changeup to back it up.  Dropped his walk rate dramatically after a promotion to A+ but ERA remained in the 4's although his FIP was over a run lower.  GB rate was slightly higher in A+.   If the scouting reports on his stuff are correct, he just needs to polish his game.  Maybe the friendly confines of Richmond's ballpark will help his ERA catch up with his FIP.  Still has 2 years on his normal development curve before he will be Rule 5 Draft eligible.
 

Thursday, January 30, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #16 Charlie Szykowny

Charlie Szykowny 3B.  DOB:  6/30/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6' 4", 225 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 9.

2024(A):  .340/.405/.505, 16 2B, 6 3B, 2 HR, 8.3 BB%, 18.6 K%, 242 PA.
2024(A+):  .235/.300/.379, 10 2B, 4 HR, 5.9 BB%, 22.4 K%, 170 PA.
2024(AFL):  .274/.297/.419, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3.1 BB%, 18.75 K%, 64 PA.

You can call him Charlie Hustle as he sprints down to first base after a walk, but as you can see from his stat lines, Charlie Szykowny doesn't like to walk.  He's aggressive in the batter's box and despite his size is more of a contact/gap power hitter than a HR threat.  His assignment to the AFL shows he has the Giants attention as a prospect.  I would think he starts 2025 back in A+ with a chance to move up to AA by the end of the season.

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Dump Taylor Rogers

Well, well, well!  I can't say I saw this one coming either, although I was starting to wonder why the the Giants signed so many lefty relievers, even if they are all on minor league deals.  They traded Taylor Rogers to the Reds along with half of his $12 M remaining salary for a minor league reliever names Braxton Roxby RHP.  Hmm...like the name anyway.  Although Rogers posted a 2.40 ERA last season, several of his indicators pointed in the wrong direction including declining FB velocity and K rate.  His BB/9 remained above 3 for the 3'rd consecutive season after hovering around 2 early in his career.  He appeared in 64 games, finished 16 but had 0 Save Opportunities.  He took the Loss in 4 games while recording 1 Win.  

The move leaves only one lefty reliever on the 40-man roster, Erik Miller, but the Giants signed multiple lefty reliever types to minor league contracts.  The most prominent of those is Joey Lucchesi LHP who also has a $1.5 M MLB contract contingent on his making the opening day active roster.  Enny Romero LHP is an under-the-radar signing who I think is a real darkhorse to watch in spring training.  Other lefty reliever minor league signings include Raymond Burgos, Antonio Jimenez, Ethan Small and C. J. WidgerChris Wright LHP is coming off injury and is listed on the AAA Sacramento roster.

Someone on BlueSky posted a quote to Baggs from Buster Posey which I can't seem to find now that made it pretty clear this was a salary dump and/or the Giants just wanted to move on from Taylor Rogers.  My paraphrase is they will keep looking but feel like the spring training roster is pretty much set.  They are looking to give some of their younger pitchers a chance to make the team.

So what's the story on Braxton Roxby?  

Braxton Roxby RHP.  DOB:  3/12/1999.  6' 3", 215 lbs.  Non-drafted Free Agent 2020.  

2024(AA):  0-4, 5.21, 48.1 IP, 3 Saves, 12.1 K/9, 4.5 BB/9.

Scouting report has him with a high 90's FB up to 99 MPH with a slider being his best pitch.  Most likely a 2-pitch guy with a reliever profile.  More pitching depth at AAA.

Hot Stove League Update: Ha-Seong Kim Signs.......With The Rays

Wow!  I didn't see that coming!  Ha-Seong Kim IF who has long been assumed to be a free agency fit with the Giants due to positional need and personal ties to Jung Hoo Lee CF agreed to terms with the Rays, of all teams.  The deal is for 2 years/$29 M with an opt-out after one season and an additional $2 M in incentives.  Kim is coming off a down season that ended early due to an injury to his shoulder that required surgery.  It is unclear when Kim will be recovered enough to play.  His agent, Scott Boras, suggested he could be ready by April.  His former employer, the Padres, said it might be as late as July.  

Injury situation aside, Kim is an excellent fit for the Giants even after they signed Willy Adames SS, but if I am sitting in Buster Posey's position, I would not agree to this deal for several reasons.  First of all the obvious uncertainty of when he will be able to play and whether it would be a full strength.  Secondly, the whole 1 yr/opt out model of contracting which was a hallmark of the FZ regime seemed to contribute to the team's lack of continuity and forward progress from year-to-year.  The tea leaves I am reading out of Buster Posey's front office say he is avoiding opt-out contracts like the plague and I am in favor of that stance.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #17 Carter Howell

Carter Howell OF.  DOB:  2/7/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6' 0", 200 lbs.  Non-drafted Free Agent 2022.

2024(AA):  .272/.347/.381, 30 2B, 7 3B, 3 HR, 15 SB, 9.3 BB%, 19.6 K%, 505 PA.

Another of Michael Holmes/FZ's NDFA's.  So far he has shown tremendous contact skills albeit with more gap than HR power.  Add in a strong OBP and enough speed to steal a base and play CF and you have a nice prospect.  AA Richmond is where many Giants hitting prospects meet their ceiling but Howell handled a full season there and is ready to move up to AAA.

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #18 Sabin Ceballos

Sabin Ceballos 3B.  DOB:  8/17/2002.  B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 225 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 3(ATL)

2024(A+, ATL):   .259/.353/.354, 20 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 9 SB, 9.8 BB%, 19.1 K%, 377 PA.
2024(A+, SFG):  .295/.364/.549, 10 2B, 7 HR, 10.7 BB%, 22.9 K%, 140 PA.  

Ceballos came to the Giants in the Jorge Soler trade and I have to say, for a salary dump trade FZ got pretty good return.  The rap on Ceballos before the trade was a lack of power but he has the size to hit for power and he had a power spike after joining A+ Eugene.  He's rated as a plus fielder at 3B.  The K and BB numbers look good.  Best of all, he only has 2 years of pro experience so has 2 more seasons of development time before he has to be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft.  As a 3B he is blocked by Matt Chapman for the forseeable future but he seems athletic enough to try other positions and he could eventually have some enhanced trade value of his own.

Monday, January 27, 2025

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Jake Lamb To Minor League Deal

Well, this is not the news most of the Giants fanbase was looking for.  The Giants agreed to a minor league contract with Jake Lamb with an invitation to spring training.  If he makes the Opening Day roster, he will get a $1 M salary.  Once upon a time, Jake Lamb was a thorn in the Giants side as young, slugging third baseman for the D'Backs, but that was a LONG time ago!  Several things combined to cause his career to go into a tailspin:  A severe platoon split(he basically can't hit LHP's), a series of injuries, bouncing from organization to organization.   His is 34 years old now and spent all of last season with the Pirates AAA team putting up modest numbers and if he couldn't crack the Pirates active roster, you have to wonder what makes the Giants think he has anything left in his tank.  He did play briefly under Bob Melvin with the A's for part of the 2020 season.

Jake Lamb 3B/1B.  DOB:  10/9/1990.  B-L, T-R 6' 3", 215 lbs.  

2023(AAA):  .289/.420/.454, 11 HR, 16.2 BB%, 19.9 K%, 357 PA.
2023(Angels):  .216/.259/.353, 2 HR, 5.6 BB%, 27.8 K%, 54 PA.
2024(AAA):  .264/.350/..393, 7 HR, 10.4 BB%, 20.3 K%, 414 PA.

IMO, the Giants need a lefthanded bat to DH and off the bench, but I am not sure Lamb is the answer to that need.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Ethan Conrad

 Ethan Conrad 1B/OF, College.  DOB:  7/5/2004.  B-L, T-L.  6' 3", 200 lbs.

2024(Marist):  .389/.467/.704, 18 2B, 13 3B, 9 HR, 17 SB, 10.4 BB%, 12.4 K%, 259 PA.
2024(Cape Cod League):  .385/.433/.486, 5 2B, 2 HR, 19 SB, 6.7 BB%, 15.0 K%, 120 PA.
2024(PGCL):  .469/.552/.837, 5 HR, 13.8 BB%, 8.6 K%, 58 PA.

Conrad is a big strong lefty hitter whose exceptional eye-hand coordination enables him to be aggressive in and out of the strike zone and still drive pitches to all fields.  He has speed to steal bases and play OF, even CF which is where he played in the Cape Cod League.  His 13 triples included 4 in one game and led NCAA Division I.  He transferred to Wake Forest for the 2025 season so will face much stiffer competition than he did at Marist although his performance on the Cape suggests he will handle it easily.  If he performs well on a bigger college stage I could see his draft ranking rise.  He may need to tone down his aggressiveness in the pros but I prefer hitters who are aggressive and make contact at this stage of their career than "3 true outcomes" guys.  

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #19 Bo Davidson

Bo Davidson OF.  DOB:  7/5/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 1", 205 lbs.  Non-drafted Free Agent July 2023.

2024(ACL):  .323/.432/.581, 2 HR, SB, 16.2 BB%, 29.7 K%, 37 PA.
2024(A):  .327/.437/.605, 12 2B, 7 3B, 9 HR, 6 SB, 14.2 BB%, 24.7 K%, 263 PA.
2024(AFL):  .283/.362/.433, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 3 SB, 11.6 BB%, 31.9 K%, 69 PA.

Chanteyon Ajria "Bo" Davidson is another early NDFA success stories from the FZ era.  He played college ball someplace called Caldwell Community College and Technical Institute in North Carolina which is in Giants Director of Scouting, Michael Holmes, home territory.  He's got size, speed and athleticism and a good looking swing that barrels up the ball.  I saw him play in Rancho Cucamonga and San Bernardino last season and he was a revelation.  Best looking player on the field for the SJ Giants.  Another familiar pattern from the FZ era is a high BB rate coupled with a high K rate.  He was able to carry over his strong performance into the AFL.  I expect him to start 2025 in A+ ball and could see AA by the end of the season.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #20 Dakota Jordan

Dakota Jordan OF.  DOB:  5/9/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6' 0", 220 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 4.

2023(Mississippi St):  .307/.397/.575, 9 2B, 10 HR, 4 SB, 13.6 BB%, 25.0 K%, 184 PA.
2023(NECL):  .379/.514/.1031, 2 2B, 3B, 3 SB, 18.9 BB%, 18.9 K%, 37 PA.
2024(Mississippi St.):  .354/.459/.671, 14 2B, 20 HR, 3 SB, 15.2 BB%, 29.0 K%, 290 PA.
2024(A):  .000/.000/.000, 0 BB, 2 K's, 7 PA.

Jordan was a 2-sport athlete(football-WR) with four plus tools including "light-tower" power.  In college he had a higher Hard Hit%(50) and Barrel%(13) than Giants first round pick James Tibbs III.  Of course the big worry is his K rate, which is extremely high for a college hitter, and whether he can make enough contact to reach his power in the pro game. He played in the SEC so he faced plenty of high talent competition.  He's a classic high-risk, high reward prospect who was definitely worth a 4'th round flyer on the ceiling.  Ordinarily you expect a college draftee from a major conference to start their first full season in A+ ball but given the questions about his hit tool, he could start 2025 at A San Jose with an opportunity to move up if he proves to be too advanced for the level.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: John Bertrand

John Bertrand LHP.  DOB:  2/8/1998.  6'3", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 10.

2024(AA):  7-9, 4.32, 146 IP, 7.34 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 1.96 GB/FB
2024(AAA):  1-0, 1.80, 10 IP, 5.40 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.33 GB/FB.

 Another 5-year college pitcher when drafted.  You won't find him on many top prospect lists but all he's done in pro ball is pitch really well.  He's a polished lefty with a low-90's FB, slider and changeup.  He makes up for a lower K rate with dominant GB rates.  Should start 2025 at AAA and wait for an opportunity at the MLB level.  He's a throwback and you don't see many MLB pitchers with his profile anymore.  Whether Buster Posey is more inclined to give guys like him an opportunity to prove they can or can't do it remains to be seen.

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Cameron Appenzeller

 Cameron Appenzeller LHP, HS.  DOB:  1/18/2007.  6' 6", 180 lbs.  

Highly projectable HS lefty with an already advanced 4-pitch mix including a 4-seam and 2-seam fastballs, Slider and changeup.  FB is currently low 90's but expected to gain velocity as he fills out his frame and gains strength.  He has a "tall and fall" delivery but with a low arm slot.  Committed to Tennessee for college which could make him challenging to sign.

We've now reviewed the top 22 draft prospects on MLB Pipeline.  My take-away impression from these reviews is this is not a strong draft and is dominated by college hitters with either limited ceiling, positional limitations or significant question marks.  I am most impressed by the 3 HS pitchers I've reviewed, Seth Hernandez, Kruz Schoolcraft and Appenzeller.  All three look like future aces to me barring injury.  HS pitchers are generally considered the highest risk demographic in the draft but historically the Giants have had their best draft successes with HS pitchers:  Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison.  If the Giants want to go for the highest ceiling at their pick and take one of these HS pitchers, I would be quite happy with their selection.

Friday, January 24, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #22 Trent Harris

Trent Harris RHP.  DOB:  1/22/1999.  6' 2", 200 lbs.  Non-Drafted Free Agent July 2023

2024(A):  3-1, 1.14, 31.2 IP, 12.51 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 4 Saves.  
2024(A+):  5-2,  2.00, 45 IP, 12.00 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 1 Save.
2024(AA):  1-0, 6.00, 3 IP, 3.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9.  

Five year college player who went undrafted and signed for a $10 K bonus.  Harris is now starting to generate buzz after two very strong pro seasons.  His scouting report gives him an "explosive" mid-90's FB topping out at 97 MPH and two plus breaking balls, a slider and curveball.  His changeup is adequate but he seldom uses it.  On video, he has a powerful lower half with a drop-and-drive delivery which he brings over-the-top.  Although he pitched exclusively in relief, he averaged 2 IP/Appearance.  He should start out 2025 in AA and could be one of the first options for a call up if the Giants need bullpen help as they almost certainly will at some point in the season.

Hot Stove League Update: Santander and Profar Off Market

 There were a couple more signings this week in the Hot Stove League worth mentioning.  First, Anthony Santander OF signed with the Blue Jays for a reported 5 yr/$92.5 M with $35 M in deferrals which puts the present value of the package at around $70 M and the AAV for CBT purposes at just $14 M.  Santander is relevant to Giants fans in that Buster Posey has stated several times he still wants to upgrade the Giants lineup and Santander was one of the better hitters on the free agent market averaging 35 HR's over his last 3 seasons including 44 last year.  He is 30 years old and a switch-hitter but is a below-average outfielder which may be why the Giants were not more enthusiastic in their pursuit.  

The second signing was Giants nemesis Jurickson Profar OF who signed with the Braves for 3 yr/$42 M.  Profar's career has been inconsistent to say the least but he's coming off a strong season with a slash line of .280/.380/.459 with 24 HR's and 10 SB.  He is also a switch-hitter and the type of hitter who "keeps the line moving" so would fit with Buster's stated lineup vision.  Profar is not popular with the Giants fanbase and his inconsistency may be why there was never much speculation about him coming to the Giants.  I think Bob Melvin managed Profar with the Padres so maybe he is not a fan either?

With less than a month to the opening of spring training, the available free agent list is dwindling down.  Pete Alonso 1B and Alex Bregman 3B remain unsigned as well as several third tier options like Randall Grichuk OF, Austin Hays OF, Ramon Laureano OF, and Alex Verdugo OF.  My reading of the tea leaves point away from Alonso or Bregman.  The Giants have reportedly talked to Grichuk and he makes a lot of sense in several ways.  My concern is none of the third tier guys are slam-dunks to be upgrades over just rolling with the young depth currently on the Giants 40-man roster.

Thursday, January 23, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #23 Tyler Myrick

Tyler Myrick RHP.  DOB: 6/25/1998.  6' 0", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 14.

2024(AA):  1-3, 5.14, 28 IP, 9.32 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 6 Saves.
2024(AAA):  3-2, 3.18, 34 IP, 9.79 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, 7 Saves.

Myrick worked his way up the Giants farm system on the Closer Track and and peformed well in the role.  The elevated walk rate in AAA was because he walked 12 batters in his first 11 IP.  After that his walk rate was 2.86 over his last 18 appearances.  I don't have formal scouting reports but I did see him pitch in 2022. He had good pop on his fastball, excellent command and a slider to help put hitters away.  I expect him to start 2025 back in AAA Sacramento and be a viable call up option during the season.

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #24 Juan Sanchez

Juan Sanchez LHP.  DOB:  11/12/2000.  5' 9", 165 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent July 2017.  

2024(AAA):  4-0, 3.93, 34.1 IP, 9.17 K/9, 7.34 BB/9, 4 Saves.  

One of the reported signs of a UCL tear is a spike in walk rates.  Whether that was the case with Sanchez, his season ended on June 14 I read a rumor somewhere he had Tommy John surgery.  If that is the case, he likely won't see game action until late in 2025.

Sanchez has worked his way up the Giants farm system slowly.  He is small for a pitcher but has good command of a 3-pitch mix with his changeup grading out as his best pitch.  The missed time sets him way back at a critical time in his career.   

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #25 Jack Choate

Jack Choate LHP.  DOB:  4/18/2001.  6' 6", 249 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 9.

2024(A+):  1-3, 2.90, 77.2 IP, 10.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9.
2024(AA):  1-4, 5.82, 34 IP, 10.9 K/9, 4.8 BB/9.

FB runs low 90's but he combines it with a slider and changeup and per MLB scouting report it plays up because he uses his length and low arm slot to create an unusually wide and deceptively flat approach angle.  There is an MLB video of him striking out his 5'th batter in a row of a 4-inning, 6 K stint in AA.  He should start 2025 back in AA Richmond.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Trent Caraway

Trent Caraway 3B, College.  DOB;  3/29/2004.  B-R, T-R.  6' 2", 203 lbs.  

2024(College):  .339/.431/.516, 2 HR, 4 SB, 8.3 BB%, 31.9 K%, 72 PA.
2024(CCL):  .276/.362/.449, 4 HR, 5 SB, 11.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, 116 PA.

A draft eligible sophomore,  Caraway was highly rated for his bat coming out of HS.  Went undrafted due to a strong commitment to Oregon State.  He's got a big, strong, muscular frame and keeps his arms in on a short, power swing.  His freshman year was cut short due to a broken finger suffered on a bunt attempt(those college coaches-insert eye-roll emoji).  He came back to star in the Cape Cod League while cutting his K rate nearly in half.  He's got plenty of arm to play 3B but quetionable mobility.  He might be able to play a corner OF.  I like the bat better than some more highly ranked draft prospects but defensive limitations put a lot of pressure on it.

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Armchair GM: Player A vs Player B

 Let's do a fun little Player A vs Player B exercise here.  The context is you are Buster Posey and are working with a collective ownership edict to stay under the CBT threshold in total payroll and you are looking for a power bat for RF, 1B or DH.

Player A: 30 yo.   600 PA, 126 H, 27 2B, 29 HR, 60 BB.  Salary $25 M/yr for 5 years($125 M total).

Player B:  27 yo.  600 PA, 141 H, 25 HR, 25 2B, 25 BB.  Salary $760 K for 1 year(League Minimum).

Which player do you choose?

Player A is Pete Alonso

Player B is Jerar Encarnacion.

Counting stats from 2024 adjusted to 600 PA's.  

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #26 Nick Sinacola

Nick Sinacola RHP.  DOB:  10/29/1999.  6' 2", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 7.

2024(A+):  4-1, 2.68, 40.1 IP, 8.48 K/9, 1.56 BB/9.
2024(AA):  5-2, 4.08, 68.1 IP, 7.77 K/9, 2.07 BB/9.

Sinacola has a 3-pitch starters mix with numbers that indicated good command.  Best pitch seems to be his slider.  He pitched 5 hitless innings with 8 K's in his second AA start.  K rate has slipped as he's moved to higher levels but still has decent ratios.   Placement for 2025 will likely depend on roster numbers.  It should be AA vs AAA.  He'll need an opportunity to break through the Giants logjam of young pitchers but could have a career as a #4/5 SP.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Enny Romero To Minor League Deal

Enny Romero is a name that seems familiar to me but he last pitched in the major leagues in 2018.  He spent most of his career in the Rays organization and and put up good numbers with the Nationals in 2018.  He pitched in Japan from 2109-2022 and his experience the last two seasons has been in the Dominican Winter League.  He's coming off a terrific performance in the DWL.  Don't forget during the championship run, the Giants found several hidden gems in the DWL including Ryan Vogelsong RHP and Gregor Blanco OF.

Enny Romero LHP:  DOB:  1/24/1991.  6' 3", 232 lbs.  

2024/2025(DWL):  6-1, 1.24, 51 IP, 3.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9.

Over his career, Romero has worked as both a SP and RP.  He made 10 Starts in the DWL.  At times he sported a FB that hit triple digits including a recorded 102 MPH FB that struck out Freddie Freeman in 2017.  There is a MLB video of him striking out 6 batters in a game 12/17/2024.  No radar gun readings but it looked like the FB had was getting up there quick.  His pitch count was 104 on the final K. Someone to pay attention to in spring training.

Monday, January 20, 2025

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Joey Lucchesi

The Giants moved to bolster the left side of their bullpen today with the signing of Joey Lucchesi LHP to a minor league contract.  The contract comes with an invitation to spring training and $1.5 M salary contingent on him making the team.  In my memory, most players signed on deals like this end up making the team unless they get injured or have a disastrous spring training.

You may remember Lucchesi from when he broke in with the Padres in 2016 and he pitched very well for them through 2019.  He was traded to the mets in a 3-way deal that brought Joe Musgrove to the Padres suffered a series of injuries and spent most of 2023 and 2024 in the minor leagues.  He has worked mostly as a SP in his career so could fill a dual role as a lefty reliever and spot or backup starter if he makes the team out of spring training. 

Joey Lucchesi LHP.  DOB:  6/6/1993.  6' 5", 225 lbs.  

2023(AAA):  6-5, 4.74, 81.2 IP, 8.27 K/9, 4.30 BB/9.
2023(MLB):  4-0, 2.89, 46.2 IP, 6.17 K/9, 3.28 BB/9.
2024(AAA):  5-7, 4.70, 115 IP, 6.73 K/9, 4.28 BB/9.
2024(MLB). 0-2, 5.23, 10.1 IP, 6.10 K/9, 6.97 BB/9.

Lucchesi has always been a soft-tosser with FB right at 90 MPH which he throws about 25% of the time.  He backs that with a slider which he throws about 45% and curve at about 30% with an occasional changeup.  His K/BB's have gone from excellent early in his career to suboptimal recently.  He'll get a chance to get his career back on track with the Giants.  It's a no-risk contract from the Giants perspective with pretty significant upside.  Good signing!

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #27 Justin Wishkoski

Justin Wishkoski 3B.  DOB:  1/19/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 195 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 16(College).

2024(A+):  .261/.349/.375, 5 HR, 16 SB, 8.6 BB%, 17.6 K%, 324 PA.
2024(AA):  .243/.331/.340, 2 HR, 2 SB, 8.3 BB%, 17.5 K%, 120 PA.

Made it to AA in his first full pro season and held his own.  Contact hitter right now but has size to hit for more power.  Will need it as a corner IF.  Should start 2025 in AA.  

Sunday, January 19, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #28 Victor Bericoto

Victor Bericoto 1B/OF.  DOB:  12/3/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 155 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent July 2018.

2024(AA):  .261/.309/.384, 22 2B, 11 HR, 6 SB, 6.3 BB%, 24.0 K%, 479 PA.

First of all, I am pretty sure Victor Bericoto currently weighs a lot more than 155 lbs, so let's get that out of the way.  His rise through the Giants minor league system has been agonizingly slow and interrupted by the 2020 COVID season.  While I don't have a precise scouting report, my feeling is he is a marginal fielder at any position and probably will have to DH or play 1B if/when he makes the major leagues.  That puts a lot of pressure on the bat.  It's a good bat.  AA Richmond is a notoriously hitter-unfriendly environment.  But is the bat good enough to be limited to 1B/DH?  I would advocate for placing him in AAA Sacramento this season and see if he can take advantage of the more hitter-friendly league.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Devin Taylor

Devin Taylor OF, College.  DOB:  6' 1", 215 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  6' 1", 215 lbs.  

2024(Indiana):  .357/.449/.660, 20 HR, 5 SB, 13.0 BB%, 13.33 K%, 285 PA.
2024(CCL):  .296/.397/.510, 5 HR, 14.7 BB%, 25 K%, 116 PA.

Devin Taylor might have the best all-around bat I have seen so far in my draft scouting reports and he's not a pop-up hitter.  The bat has been on scouting radars dating back to high school.  His offensive production did not trop off in summer wood bat leagues.  Taylor has a stocky, muscular frame with a picture perfect swing geared for hard contact.  He consistently displays excellent plate discipline and control of the strike zone.  Unfortunately he is defensively limited and projects as a LF/1B or DH in the pros so there is a lot of pressure on the bat.  His situation reminds me a bit of another Hoosier, Kyle Schwarber, and I can think of a lot worse outcomes for a first round draft pick.  If this was 10 years ago, I might classify him as an AL only player, but with the universal DH, I would not hesitate to draft him anywhere in the first round, even #1 overall.

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Thoughts on the Giants 2024 Season

I found myself meditating on the Giants 2024 season which, based on reading comments here and other Giants-oriented social media sites, most fans hated.  On one level, I hated it too.  I want the Giants to win the World Series as bad as any fan alive, although at least I now know when my life ends I have witnessed not just one Giants World Series win but 3!  From a results-oriented perspective, 2024 was an extremely disappointing if not disastrous season.  Farhan Zaidi deserved to be fired, not just for the outcome of the one season but for his overall body of work and apparent dysfunction at multiple levels of the organization.  

On the other hand, is the prospect of winning the World Series or getting into the postseason is the only reason we hardcore fans watch the game?  If that was the case, I can count on less than two hands the total number of seasons worth watching in my lifetime.  Speaking for myself, I find fascinating things to watch and remember from almost every season, no matter how disappointing or unsuccessful from a W-L standpoint.   Even the 2023 season, which IMO, was way more disastrous than 2024, was fascinating to watch as the team descended into utter chaos on the field leading up to Gabe Kapler's emergency firing.  I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like that in almost 60 years of following this team.  Horrifying but also fascinating enough I couldn't not watch it.  

With that in mind, here are some the experiences from the 2024 season that made it enjoyable and worth watching despite the lack of success in making the postseason:

Matt Chapman's Defense.  What a joy to watch!  It was like you wanted to watch every game just to see him make another amazing play.  The one game-saving, bare-handed play has to be one of the greatest defensive plays I've ever seen and I spent 13 seasons watching Brandon Crawford play shortstop.  Chappy wasn't too shabby at the plate either.  Much better than I anticipated.  I knew he was a good defender but the D was an absolute revelation too.

The Jorge Soler roller-coaster ride.  Overall, Jorge Soler's tenure with the Giants was a disaster but fascinating to watch at the same time.  From completely face-planting as a middle-of-the-order power bat to actually making some contributions after Bob Melvin moved him to leadoff hitter to his uexpected trade to the Braves at the deadline.  I found the whole saga interesting, if frustrating, to watch.  Even the trade was a disaster and a microcosm of why FZ needed to go.  The Giants offense was measurably worse after Soler's departure and FZ had no plan to replace his contribution, little as it was.  He said the plan was for Marco Luciano to be the DH but that lasted, what, one game?  From then on DH was one more black hole in the lineup.

Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald.  How fun was it to watch a couple of rooks, one who had dropped off the prospect radar screen and another who was never on it, come up and win starting jobs and make some memorable plays in the process.  Ramos became the first right-handed batter with a Splash Hit in the entire history of PacBell/AT&T/Oracle Park.  Did you see it in person or on TV?  I saw it on TV.  And didn't Fitz set some sort of record for a certain number of home runs within a certain number of days?  

Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong.  They had their ups and downs but I enjoyed watching both of them take their first steps toward becoming building blocks for the Giants rotation of the future.  There were several other young potential future starters or relievers who made their MLB debut.  Maybe someday we'll look back and say it was fool's gold but maybe we'll look back and say we saw the next Giants dynasty form.

Ryan Walker's emergence as the Giants Closer.  He's got that extreme cross-over delivery and man, does he compete!  Give me a Closer like him over a 100 MPH thrower any day.  

Camilo Doval's struggles.  OK, I'll admit most of this was not only not fun it was extremely frustrating and disappointing to watch, but there was one game after coming off the IL where he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn and there was this weird game-delay while the umpires hashed something out.  Doval just kind of stood there and then lazily played catch with Patrick Bailey(I am actually not sure if Bailey was catching at that time. It might have been Curt Casali).  Anyway, you couldn't help but think the delay was icing him and he would be even worse when play resumed.  Lo and behold, he suddenly had perfect command of his pitches and finished off the inning with aplomb.  Amazing and fun to watch!

The promise of Grant McCrayMcCray's late callup was admittedly a mixed bag and he clearly needs some more seasoning in the minors but he had his moments and the tools were obvious.  Power, speed, defense.  Fun to watch.

Blake Snell's No-hitter.  Overall, the Blake Snell signing was a disaster and I wish him the worst with the Dodgers but for a brief moment in the second half he was the best pitcher in the game and we got to watch another Giants no-hitter.  How about that?

What memorable moments or players did you take away from the 2024 season?

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #29 Aeverson Arteaga

Aeverson Arteaga SS.  DOB:  3/16/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 170 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent 2019.

2023(A+):  .235/.299/.410, 17 HR, 8 SB, 7.3 BB%, 24.2 K%, 546 PA.
2024(ACL):  .444/.500/.1.000, 2 SB, 10.0 BB%, 50.0 K%, 10 PA.
2024(A+):  .183/.287/.244, 1 HR, 3 SB, 12.8 BB%, 27.7 K%, 104 PA.

Arteaga is one of those 2019 signings whose pro career was delayed by COVID.  He is a slick-fielding SS with a decent bat who was progressing up the minor league ladder at a deliberate pace when he was derailed again by what I understand was thoracic outlet surgery.  He came back late last season and struggled in A+ ball.  2025 is a pivotal season to see if he can get back on track.

Friday, January 17, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #30 Hayden Wynja

 Hayden Wynja LHP.  DOB:  10/14/1998.  6' 9", 220 lbs.  Non-drafted Free Agent July 2022.

2024(A+):  2-3, 4.95, 56.1 IP, 9.43 K/9, 3.67 BB/9.

Despite his size, Wynja does not light up radar guns.  Although he throws a fastball, he seems to rely more on a plus slider and a decent changeup.  And despite a significant downward plane on his pitches he's an extreme flyball pitcher.  Still, 6' 9" LHP's don't grow on trees and his size along should be a challenge for professional hitters.  He missed 2 1/2 months of 2024 with some sort of injury but came back to make two late season appearances.  I'm rooting for him to stay healthy and to see what he can do at AA in 2025.

Hot Stove League Update: The Evil Empire Wins Again

Welp, as we suspected all along the whole Roki Sasaki interview tour/"homework assignment" was a whole truckload of horse poo poo.  He was going to be a Dodger all along.  And the Dodgers, apparently the richest team in baseball by a very wide margin were handed an ace pitcher essentially for free.  There are several things I feel need to be said here:

1. If parity is good for baseball, this and several other recent Dodger deals are not good for the game. Due to an enormous talent gap between them and their closest competitor(probably the Yankees and the World Series exposed that gap to be not close and it's a lot wider now).  

2.  The Ohtani deal was an obvious attempt to circumvent, or at least excessively mitigate, the CBT tax.  Not saying something like that is going to be repeated anytime soon but whether it requires the Commissioner to make a ruling or the Basic Agreement between MLB and the Players Association being modified, deferred salaries of that magnitude should either be disallowed or the tax should not be devalued by projected inflation.  

3.  It's ridiculous for a 23 year old established ace from Japan which produces talent very competitive with MLB to be treated the same as a 16 year old prospect from Latin America with zero professional experience. Sasaki should have been a full-fledged free agent with no upper limit of the size or length of his contract.  Yes, maybe the Dodgers still end up signing him. If they have that kind of money, more power to them but they should not get him essentially for free for at least the next 3-4 years.

4.  Although I can't prove it, I strongly suspect there is an element of NBA-style player collusion to create superteams going on here, first with Ohtani's deferral scheme and now with Sasaki essentially accepting far less than market value to add his talents to what was already an MLB superteam when he could have waited just 2 years and scored a $ Multi-hundred million deal for himself.

What this means for Buster Posey and the Giants, they can't worry about what the Dodgers are doing although, IMO, they should register a grievance with the Commissioner even if they are sure it won't go anwhere.  Who knows?  Maybe they have?  I would not expect such a grievance to be made public.  Beyond that, Buster needs to stick to the fundamentals of building a team that can compete for the expanded postseason on a yearly basis.  Once you're in the postseason, hey!  2024 notwithstanding, anything can happen!

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Tre Phelps

Tre Phelps 3B/OF, College.  DOB:  6/19/2004.  B-R, T-R.  6' 2", 197 lbs.  

2024(Georgia):  .353/.441/.699, 12 HR, 2 SB, 6.2 BB%, 9.3 K%.  

Draft eligible sophomore.  Phelps has the size, strength and contact skills to be a consistent power hitter at good enough to play at a corner IF or OF position at the MLB level.  There is some pressure on the bat due to limited defensive ceiling.  I do like his bat a little better than some higher ranked draft prospects and might rank him higher than MLB Pipeline's #19 on my board.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #31 Manuel Mercedes

Manuel Mercedes RHP.  DOB:  9/21/2002.  6' 4", 190 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent July 2019.

2024(A+):  4-9, 5.28, 116 IP, 6.91 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 2.28 GB/FB.

Mercedes has the size and arm to be a big league SP.   He's a throwback who pounds the zone with a mid-90's power sinker inducing an elite groundball percentage.  His short term problem is limiting walks as he needs to keep them below 3.0/9 to make his approach work.  The longer term issue is the contact/GB approach just doesn't work as well as it used to prior to the launch angle era.  So the tools are there but he needs to refine his command and learn to use his secondar pitches earlier in counts and as K pitches. 

Thursday, January 16, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #32 Onil Perez

Onil Perez C.  DOB:  9/10/2002.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 187 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent July 2019.

2024(A+):  .236/.334/.303, 15 2B, 3B, HR, 20 SB, 11.1 BB%, 16.5 K%, 350 PA.

It is challenging to try to figure out what kind of a player Onil Perez is.  He looks like a big lumbering catcher who might hit for some power but his stat lines look like they're from an undesized, speedy shortstop prospect.  He's hit just 5 HR's in 4 years and almost 1000 PA's of pro ball. In that same span he has stolen 52 bases.  Yes, I know that's not all that many but it's way more than you would expect from a guy whose scouting report gives him a 20 for the speed tool.  He continued to show excellent plate discipline numbers in A+ but his BABIP was down his BA suffered as a result.  He's an intriguing, unusual prospect at a premium position but his ceiling is probably limited unless he can figure out how to make harder contact at the plate.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Ike Irish

Ike Irish, C, College.  DOB:  11/26/2003.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 201 lbs.  

2024(Auburn):  .319/.403/.627, 14 HR, 5 SB, 10.6 BB% 13.4 K%, 217 PA.
2024(CCL):  .325/.438/.433, 2 HR, 8 SB, 13.9 BB%, 24.3 K%, 144 PA.

Irish is a hit-first catcher whose catching skills are improving.  Best tool is his arm but needs to work on releasing quicker.   He can hit for average and power and his numbers don't drop off too much with wood bats.  MLB Pipeline scouting report worries about stiffness in his swing and not enough loft.  Catchers who bat lefthanded and can hit for some power are quite valuable but it's a risky demographic at best.  He's an interesting prospect but ranking at #18 may be in indication of the general weakness of this draft.  I would probably consider him in round 2 or 3 more than in the first round.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #33 Cesar Perdomo

Cesar Perdomo LHP.  DOB:  2/9/2002.  6' 0", 170 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent July 2021.  

2024(A):  5-1, 1.26, 43 IP, 10.47 K/9, 2.30 BB/9,  13 G, 1 GS, 2 Saves. 
2024(A+):  3-6, 4.00, 54 IP, 9.74 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 13 G, 13 GS.  

It's taken Perdomo awhile to reach the lower full-season minors.  I saw him pitch for the A San Jose Giants early in the season.  His FB did not light up radar guns(low 90's) but he mixed it effectively with a breaking ball and changeup which he seemed to have excellent command of.  There is a video on MLB from a 5-inning, no-hit outing with A+ Eugene where the announcer says his FB hit 95 MPH.  Again, he showed a nice mix of pitches in that video.  He was used mostly in relief in San Jose but was the SP in all 13 of his A+ appearances.  Seems like he should start 2025 season in AA.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #34 Jonah Cox

 Jonah Cox OF.  DOB:  8/4/2001. B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 200 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 6(A's)

2024(A):  .297/.412/.384, 2 HR, 38 SB, 13.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, 2.78 GB/FB, .400 BABIP, 275 PA.
2024(A+):  .225/.324/.350, 3 HR, 20 SB, 11.9 BB%, 31.0 K%, 1.89 GB/FB, .333 BABIP, 185 PA.

Cox was acquired from the A's in Feb. 2024 for Ross Stripling which is better than the negative trade value I thought Stripling had.  Cox is a speedster who has the size to hit for power but has obviously geared his game to putting the ball on the ground and maintaining a high BABIP with his speed.  That approach can work but the player has to be really, really fast and it helps to bat lefthanded which Cox does not.  He has two years of development before he has to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft so has time to figure out if he needs to change his approach at higher levels.  His ability to draw walks helps.  For now, expect him to start the 2025 season in A+ ball.  Oh!  And how did the trade for Ross Stripling work out for the A's?  Not so good as Stripling went 2-11 with a 6.01 ERA.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Slate of International Prospects; Add to International Bonus Pool

It was a busy day for the Giants international scouting team.  As expected, they signed the consensus #1 Latin American prospect in the signing period, added two others rated in the top 50 plus multiple other international prospects.  The marquee name here is Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez SS.  He's lean, wiry strong, athletic, switch-hitting shortstop who some scouting reports comp to Francisco Lindor SS.  Looking at video footage he has plenty of room to fill out his frame and still remain mobile enough to play SS.  Joe Palermo, head of Giants international scouting stated that Josuar will be assigned to the DSL this summer to start his pro career.  Josuar signed for a reported $2.9 M which is a bit more than was projected leading up to signing day.  More on that later.  

The Giants also signed DJean Maceres CF,the top rated prospect from Aruba, for a reported $1 M and Yulian Barreto SS from Venezuela.  In all, the Giants signed 15 international prospects 6 countries including 8 from Venezuela where the Giants seem the most active of all the Latin American countries, just two from the Dominican Republic and two from Colombia, one each from Aruba, Panama and St Martin.  Perhaps the top signing for the name tool is Winkel Del Rosario LHP from the Dominican Republic.  He has nice size too at 6' 3", 180 lbs.

The Giants made two other transactions today, two of which acquired additional international bonus pool money which may have gone toward sweetening the offer to Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez. Per Roger in a comment on McCovey Chronicles, another team reportedly made a late run at trying to sign Josuar away from the Giants and they may have felt they needed to up their offer to make sure he didn't get away.  

Blake Sabol C/UT, who was DFA'd after the Justin Verlander signing was traded to the Red Sox for bonus pool money.  OK, I admit I didn't think he had any trade value.  

William Kempner RHP was traded to the Marlins, also for bonus pool money.  Kempner was a third round draft pick in 2022 but did not pitch much for the Giants due to injuries.  

Austin Warren RHP who was DFA'd last week when the Giants signed Sam Huff C, was claimed off waivers by the Mets.  

We wish these former Giants prospects the best with their new teams and welcome with excitement the new class of international prospects.  The Giants are rumored to be in on highly rated prospects for the 2026 and 2027 signing periods too.  If nothing else, the two trades for additional bonus pool money seems to be in indicator of Buster Posey's continued commitment to acquiring international talent which is a very good thing, in my opinion.

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #35 Quinn McDaniel

Quinn McDaniel 2B.  DOB:  9/27/2002.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 180 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 5

2024(A+):  .236/.345/.390, 20 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 40 SB, 13.1 BB%, 32.5 K%, 36.3 XBH%, 511 PA.  

Quinn McDaniel is a dynamic player with strong plate discipline, extra-base power and speed to steal bases.  The tradeoff is high K rate and relatively low BA.  He is young for his level although which may help with his development timeline but there is not much projection in the frame.  He has enough speed to play OF, even CF, in addition to 2B.  He should start 2025 at AA which is always the acid test of Giants positional prospects.  If he can maintain a similar batting line with Richmond it will make him an exciting MLB prospect and raise next year's ranking considerably.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Sean Gamble

Sean Gamble SS, HS.  DOB:  7/6/2006.  B-L, T-R.  6' 1", 185 lbs.  

Gamble has above average all-around tools grading 50-55.  His skills are advanced due to 4 years training at IMG Academy in Florida.  He has also played CF where some scouts like him better than at SS.  Perfect Game scouting report has him at 6' 2".  He makes hard contact to all fields with potential for middle-of-order power.  He's committed to Vanderbilt so could be tough to sign.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #36 Josh Bostick

Josh Bostick RHP.  DOB:  10/20/2001.  6' 4", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 8(JC).

2024(A):  2-9, 4.78, 107.1 IP, 10.15 K/9, 3.69 BB/9.  

Bostick has a big league pitcher's frame with a good looking 3-pitch mix.  Baseball America reports his FB being mid-90's and peaking at 99 MPH but in the game I saw him pitch he sat more in the 92-94 MPH range.  MLB Pipeline scouring report has him 91- 95 MPH with the FB.  Command was inconsistent.  He's got the tools to pitch in the major leagues. He just needs to refine his game which he has time to do.  He should start 2025 at A+ Eugene.

Monday, January 13, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #37 Scott Bandura

Scott Bandura OF.  DOB:  8/2/2001.  B-L, T-R.  6' 4", 190 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 7

2024(A):  .276/.389/.362, 0 HR, 5 SB, 11.1 BB%, 19.0 K%.
2024(A+):  .227/.332/.374, 6 HR, 19 SB, 12.6 BB%, 27.9 K%.  

Scott Bandura has quite the backstory as Mo'ne Davis' catcher in the Little League World Series and then playing college ball at Princeton.  He's a tall, wiry-strong OF with some tools and advanced plate discipline.  Can he keep doing that while bringing his K rate down enough to avoid cratering his BA?

BTW, with the draft now pushed back to mid-July, college draftees often get minimal or no game action during their draft year which counts against their Rule 5 Eligibility which means they really only get two years before they have to be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed.  That's a very tight timetable and probably does not do the player any favors.  Seems like the clock should start with their first full pro season.

Hot Stove Update: Roki Is Not Coming To The Giants

The tea leaves did not look good for awhile and today we formally hear the Giants are not one of the teams Roki Sasaki RHP is considering signing with.  He reportedly also informed the Yankees, Rangers, and Rays they are out of the running.  That seems to narrow it down to the BJ's, The Hated Ones and that other team from SoCal.  OK, let's stop kidding ourselves.  It's going to be the Dodgers and poo on them!  It seems MLB has jumped in the same boat as the NBA where players can collude and create super-teams.  

TBH, the whole Sasaki situation has been weird from the beginning.  First of all he's already an established star in Japan but somehow is considered an amateur international free agent subject to the bonus pool limits which apparently don't matter to him because he just wants to play or has enough endorsement income to not need the bonus money.  Except the Dodgers and Padres are reportedly bailing on their longstanding agreements with their "normal" international prospects and telling them they are free to seek other deals or wait until next signing period.  So maybe the money is not as irrelevant to Roki as he led us to believe?  Which put the Giants in a tough position.

The Giants are reported to have a longstanding agreement in place to sign the consensus #1 international prospect(not named Roki Sasaki), Josuar Gonzalez SS, as well as two other highly regarded prospects who collectively are expected to take up all but about $800 K of their bonus pool.  The Giants have also worked very hard for almost 10 years to build up their relationships with international trainers or "buscones" who broker these deals and finally seem to have a steady stream of serious international prospects on a yearly basis.  In a vacuum, yes, Sasaki is a player you would sacrifice the rest of your international signing class to acquire but what about those longterm relationships with the "buscones" and their reputation with the Latin American talent pool?  Through the whole process, the Giants were reported to be determined to honor the commitments they had in place while still hoping to sign Sasaki.  Is Sasaki so narcissistic he wants teams to abandon those commitments as a sign of commitment to him?.....or maybe he really does need the bonus money after all?  I am confused!

Then there was the weird "homework assignment" he gave the reported finalists to write up a personalized development plan for him.  Like what?  Buster Posey seemed pretty enthused about the prospect of signing Sasaki but he is also very old school and I could easily see him looking at that "homework assignment" and saying F this BS and not responding or walking away.  Or in Buster's own immortal words, "not havin' it!"  We will probably never know what really happened or how seriously the Giants were or were not a possible destination for him but I would love to see the look on Buster's face when he heard about that "homework assignment.".  

So chins up, Giants fans.  In all probability Roki was never coming to us and if the price was to bail on Josuar Gonzalez and the rest of their international commitments I am OK with that.  Although Bobby Evans was the GM who started building up the international scouting effort, FZ continued it and that hard work is starting to pay off and will start paying dividends at the MLB level in just a few years.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Marek Houston

Marek Houston SS, College.  DOB:  4/14/2004.  B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 185 lbs.  

2024(Wake Forest):  .326/.434/.516, 8 HR, 4 SB, 14.4 BB%, 12.5 K%, 264 PA.
2024(CCL):  .306/.465/.329, 7 SB, 22.8 BB%, 18.4 K%, 114 PA.

Excellent defensive SS with room to grow into a tall frame.  Good contact hitter who was a Cape Cod League all-star.  Power may come with added maturity and strength.  Some question whether the bat will play in the pros although the CCL performance may quiet those fears.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #38 Cale Lansville

Cale Lansville RHP.  DOB:  1/6/2003.  6' 1", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 14(JC)

2024(A):   3-4, 4.36, 74.1 IP, 8.35 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 1.78 GB/FB.
2024(AFL):  0-2. 3.45, 15.2 IP, 10.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9

Lansville is a year ahead of the college draftees in his development due to being drafted out of JC ball.  He is sturdily built and has a solid 3-pitch mix:  Low 90's sinking fastball, high 80's slider/cutter and changeup with strong command.  He'll probably be assigned to A+ to start 2025 despite a strong showing in the AFL which included one appearance with 6 K's in 3 IP.  Potential to move up fast.  Projects as a future #3/4 SP option.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #39 Gerelmi Maldonado

Gerelmi Maldonado RHP.  DOB:  12/21/2003.  6' 2", 170 lbs.  Signed as international free agent January 2021.

2023:  1-1, 4.71, 65 IP, 11.22 K/9, 5.54 BB/9, !.35 GB/FB.

Maldonado was a rising star in the organization with scouting reports talking about mid-upper 90's FB as he entered his age 19 season in A ball.  He did pitched OK until about mid-June with a 3.60 ERA then kind of hit a wall and his ERA ballooned to 6.48 over the next 7 starts until he was shut down at the end of July.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in December 2023 and missed all of 2024.  The good news is he should be ready to go by spring training although the Giants may take it slow with his rehab.  He's still just 21 years old but the Giants will have a Rule 5 Draft decision to make in November.  Oh, and the name alone gets him a place in DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects!

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Cam Cannarella

 Cam Cannarella OF, College.  DOB:  9/6/2003.  B-L, T-R.  6' 0", 180 lbs.

2023(Clemson):  .388/.462/.560, 7 HR, 24 SB, 11.4 BB%, 13.4 K%, 290 PA.
2024(Clemson):  .337/.417/.561, 11 HR, 0 SB, 12.0 BB%, 15.5 K%, 283 PA.

Cannarella is a high contact/speed guy.  Aggressiveness outside the strike zone increases contact but limits power.  He has the speed to cover CF but throwing was already not his strongest tool before undergoing shoulder surgery.  The reason for the big dropoff in SB's his sophomore season was to avoid re-injuring the shoulder during slides.  We'll see if he is back to full health in 2025.  Reminds me of a lefthanded-hitting version of Gary Brown.  Remember him?

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #40 Ryan Vanderhei

 Ryan Vanderhei RHP.  DOB:  6/1/2001.  6' 6", 185 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 16(TCU).

2024(ACL):  0-0, 6.23, 8.2 IP, 11.42 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 1.22 GB/FB.
2024(A):  2-3, 3.58, 37.2 IP, 8.84 K/9, 4.78 BB/9, 1.45 GB/FB.

Vanderhei did not appear in any pro games in his draft year.  His numbers are not too impressive, but he's got a tall projectable frame. I saw him pitch in Rancho Cucamonga. He showed a low 90's FB with a slider and changeup and was able to keep hitters off balance by mixing them.  He could stand to put some meat on his bones, get stronger and find more velocity.  He is an interesting prospect to follow as he moves up to A+.  

Saturday, January 11, 2025

Hot Stove League Update: Justin Verlander Officially Signed; Blake Sabol DFA'd

We have already discussed Justin Verlander extensively.  What's worth noting here is the end of the Blake Sabol Era.  Sabol was a guy FZ picked up in a Rule 5 Draft and obviously had high hopes for.  He was a disciplined hitter with power, batted lefthanded and had catching experience.  He could nice bat off the bench and an emergency catcher which is like being able to carry 3 catchers and gives the manager far more in-game options than if you have just one backup catcher.  

Sabol seemed like a super-nice kid and gave fans a few thrills with long home runs which seemed to come in high leverage situations.  While no Buster Posey behind the plate, he seemed like an adequate catcher.  But he never really found traction and his game seemed to regress both at the plate and behind it and he really couldn't field even LF adequately either.  The last straw seemed to be last season during a brief callup when Tom Murphy got hurt and he was absolutely terrible defensively not only not getting his immediate job done but messing up the pitchers too.  Whatever FZ thought of Sabol up to then didn't really matter because Bob Melvin was not having him behind the plate ever again.  Curt Casali was brought back and despite not hitting a lick or throwing out runners, he got the pitchers comfortable with his receiving and settled them down.  

I'm not sure where Blake Sabol goes from here but I wish him the best.  

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Acquire Minor League Pitcher And Claim Catcher Off Waivers

There are two more transactions to report from the Hot Stove League.  On December 28 the Giants signed Miguel Diaz RHP to a minor league contract and on January 8 they claimed Sam Huff C off waivers from the Rangers.  Since claiming a player off waivers necessitates putting them on the 40-man roster they designated Austin Warren RHP for assignment.  The Churn is alive and well.  Let's breakdown the players involved:

Miguel Diaz RHP.  DOB:  11/28/1994.  6' 0", 224 lbs.  

2024(AAA- 2 teams):  3-2, 4.30, 46 IP, 10.57 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 4 Saves, 2.48 FIP, 3.65 xFIP.  

Diaz pitched just one scoreless inning at the MLB level for the Astros.  He has a 2.82 ERA in a total of 60.2 IP since 2019 but has had limited opportunities since 2021 when he pitched 42 innings.  Scouting report is he has a mid-90's FB with a changeup and slider.  He has a modest groundball tendency.  He is on a minor league deal presumably with an invitation to spring training.  He is out of options. It is unclear if players who sign as minor league free agents must be exposed to waivers if they do not make the active roster out of spring training.  

Sam Huff C.  DOB:  1/14/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6' 4", 240 lbs.  

Career(MLB):  .258/.313/.455, 10 HR, 7.5 BB%, 33.6 K%, 214 PA.  
2024(AAA):  .246/.310/.416, 13 HR, 8.2 BB%, 31.4 K%, 477 PA.

Very big body for a catcher which scouting reports say negatively impacts his framing and defense.  Has managed to put up decent slash lines despite high K rates.  Also out of options but signed as a minor league free agent so unclear that he needs to be optioned to be sent to AAA.  Otherwise he fills out the spring training roster with an outside chance of winning the back up catcher role at the MLB level.

Austin Warren RHP.  DOB:  2/5/1996.  6' 0", 170 lbs.  

2024(minor leagues- 3 levels):  1-1, 4.67, 27 IP, 10.33 K/9, 2.00 BB/9. 1.67 GB/FB.
2024(MLB):  0-0, 1.69, 10.2 IP, 5.91 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB.

Warren was signed as a rehab project after missing almost all of the 2023 season.  He put up excellent K and BB rates in 3 minor league levels but with a relatively high ERA.  In 6 MLB appearances he had a shiny ERA with terrible K/BB.  Is Huff more valuable on the 40-man roster than Warren?  

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Max Belyeu

Max Belyeu OF, College.  DOB:  112/15/2003.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 210 lbs.  

2023(Texas):  .333/.350/.683, 1 BB, 8 K, 21 PA.
2023(CACL):  .333/.400/.488, 4 HR, 10.3 BB%, 20.7 K%, 145 PA.
2024(Texas):  .329/.423/.667, 18 HR, 10.8 BB%, 17.7 K%, 249 PA.
2024(CCL):  .222/.307/.352, 2 HR, 7.9 BB%, 33.3 K%, 63 PA.  

Belyeu is a high contact hitter who grew into his power at Texas.  After a strong sophomore season, he struggled against breaking balls in the Cape Cod League per MLB scouting report.  He projects as a corner OF with a plus arm so RF is probably his best position.  Some analysts think he could be considered the best all-around hitter in the draft and could move up draft boards if he has a strong junior season.  On video it looks like he bars his front arm quite a bit on swings which may be a negative....or not depending on whether you are a member of the anti-arm bar religion.  

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #41 Elijah Pleasants

Elijah Pleasants RHP.  DOB:  5/14/2000.  6' 5", 200 lbs.  Signed 2024 Undrafted Free Agent(Indy Ball)

2024(Indy): 2-0, 4.32, 16.2 IP, 12.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
2024(ACL):  2-2, 4.87, 20.1 IP, 8.0 K/9, 6.2 BB/9, 1.81 GB/FB, 1 Save.
2024(A):  0-0, 2.33, 27 IP, 7.7 K/9, 6.0 BB/9, 2.56 GB/FB, 2 Saves.
2024(AFL):  3-1, 5.68, 19 IP, 9.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9.

Elijah Pleasants deserves some kind of award for persistence alone.  He was regarded highly enough out of high school to play for an elite college program in the SEC, Tennessee.  By his senior year he was pitching in D2 and not too well.  I thought the Giants signed him after he was released by the Oakland A's but it turns out he was playing for Oakland in the Pioneer League which is now an independent league.  He posted strong K/BB in Indy ball then pitched at two levels in the Giants system before scoring a gig in the Arizona Fall League.  Although he worked mostly as a reliever in the ACL and San Jose, he started 5 of 6 appearances in fall ball and averaged over 3 innings per appearance.  He had two outstanding performances in the AFL:  One with 4 K's and 0 BB's and another with 7 K's.  

I Pleasants pitch in Rancho Cucamonga.  He has an ideal pitcher's frame which is lean but rawboned, high hips, broad shoulders and long, long limbs.  He has a loose armed over-the-top delivery with a finish reminiscent of Bob Gibson.  His sinking fastball sat at 95 MPH which gets groundballs and is paired with a sharp slider which is his strikeout pitch.  

There are several videos online including the 4 K and 7 K games in the AFL if are interested in seeing his frame and delivery for yourself.

If you want a big time underdog in the Giants system to root for, I recommend Elijah Pleasants.  He will most likely be assigned to A+ level where he will try to build on his AFL performance.  

Friday, January 10, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #42 Shane Rademacher

Shane Rademacher RHP.  DOB:  1/30/2001.  6'3", 215 lbs.  Non-drafted free agent 2023.

2024(A):  7-2, 4.89, 84.2 IP, 10.84 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 19.4% HR/FB.  

Rademacher got knocked around pretty good in D2 college ball but performed well in the Coastal Plain Collegiate Summer League which is probably why he came to the Giants attention.  He's got pro-sized height and body.  Performed well in A-ball except for a high HR/FB ratio.  Should move up to A+ ball in 2025.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Luke Stevenson

Luke Stevenson C, College.  DOB:  7/22/2004.  B-L, T-R.  6', 1", 200 lbs.  

2024(North Carolina):  .284/.420/.535, 14 HR, 17.8 BB%, 20.4 K%, 269 PA.

Stevenson was highly regarded coming out of HS and didn't do anything to hurt that reputation in his freshman year at NC.  He is a draft eligible sophomore which means he'll have a bit of extra leverage when it comes to signing bonuses.  Typical catcher's body with a strong lower half that looks a bit soft.  Reportedly has upped his conditioning game and is nimble behind he plate if slow afoot and has always had a cannon for an arm.  Strong lefty swing that generates power center and right fields.  Giants fans may feel like they don't need to draft another catcher but that is currently the thinnest position in the organization.  Giants scouting director Michael Holmes knows the Carolina area like the back of his hand. 

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #43 Drew Cavanaugh

Drew Cavanaugh C.  DOB:  1/27/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 0", 220 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 17(College).

2024(A):  .230/.364/.333, 2 HR, 14.9 BB%, 29.2 K%, 154 PA. 
2024(AAA):  .300/.400/.300, 11.4 BB%, 20.0 K%, 35 PA.
2024(AFL):  .200/.294/..267, 11.8 BB%, 29.4 K%, 34 PA.

Remember when during the Sabes era it seemed like all the Giants hitting prospects had shiny batting averages but walk rates in the low single digits and that was their fatal flaw?  That changed dramatically during the FZ regime and now we have a bunch of prospects hitting .230 with OBP'over .350.  Is that an improvement?  I've always considered contact to be the #1 skill I look for in a young hitting prospect with plate discipline something they learn in their development.  The problem with that is it seems like K and BB rates lock in early in a player's career and don't budge much.  

Anyway, Cavanaugh is a lefty-hitting catcher with a classic FZ hitting profile.  The Giants apparently thought enough of him to send him to the Arizona Fall League where he was one of the more inexperienced players in the league as it's mostly for players with AA and AAA experience and 35 PA's at AAA last season hardly count.  Will Cavanaugh build on that experience with a strong season at A+ in 2025?

Thursday, January 9, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #44 Jeremiah Jenkins

Jeremiah Jenkins 1B.  DOB:  5/5/2003.  B-L, T-L.  6' 4", 238 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 14(College- Maine)

2024(College):  .341/.451/.762, 22 HR, 15.6 BB%, 15.1 K%, 225 PA.
2024(Summer):  .326/.484/.630, 3 HR, 22.6 BB%, 17.8 K%, 62 PA.
2024(A):  .296/.367/.546, 2 HR, 8.2 BB%, 36.4 K%, 32.7 K%, 49 PA.

 Classic big lefty slugging 1B.  Excellent BB and K ratios in college.  K rate spiked in A ball but in very small sample.  Tons of pressure on the bat but I think he could be a major sleeper out of the 2024 draft.

Note:  I have bunched several of the 2024 draftees together here because we just don't have enough of a sample size to judge much.  I did rank them in the approximate order of my impression of their probability of sticking around at higher levels.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Billy Carlson

Billy Carlson SS/RHP, HS.  DOB:  7/29/2006.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 160 lbs.  

Corona CA HS is a hotbed of baseball talent with 3 potential first round talents on this year's team.  Billy Carlson is a true 2-way prospect who projects as a plus defender at SS with some giving him a 70 arm to go with a 60 field tool.  He is also a solid hitter with potential to grow into power.  On the mound he has a 3-pitch mix all in the 50-55 range.  He is committed to Tennessee.  He'll be almost 19 yo by draft day and is it possible someone born in 2006 is too old for the draft? Yikes!

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #45 Zander Darby

Zander Darby IF.  DOB:  11/26/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 3", 197 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 12

2023(UCSB):  .288/.383/.465, 7 HR, 8 SB, 11.7 BB%, 15.6 K%, 257 PA.
2023(CCL):  .292/.404/.407, 3 HR, 4 SB, 15.3 BB%, 16.8 K%, 137 PA.
2024(UCSB):  .275/.347/.420, 6 HR, 6 SB, 9.9 BB%, 17.0 K%, 223 PA.
2024(A):  .234/.351/.489, 4 HR, 15.8 BB%, 29.9 K%, 57 PA.

Darby played mostly 3B and 1B in college, 2B for San Jose Giants.  Big for a 2B.  Excellent K and BB ratios in college ball. Bat did not suffer in summer wood bat leagues.  Showed power and OBP but a higher K rate in a small pro sample.  Expect to see him in A+ ball in 2025.  Very interesting player for follow.

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Blast From The Past: History Of Late Career Hall Of Famers Playing For The Giants

Yesterday's news of the Giants signing Justin Verlander RHP to a 1 year free agent contract brought to mind a fairly long and illustrious history of similar transactions going at least as far back as Warren Spahn LHP in 1965.  So I thought it might be fun and educational to take a look at some of those players stat lines from those experiences.  I can think of at least 4 HOF'ers, Spahn, Steve Carlton LHP, Joe Morgan 2B and Randy Johnson LHP.  I'll add in 3 more from the Hall of Very Good Players, Dusty Baker OF, Reggie Smith 1B and Orel Hershiser RHP.  What makes those 3 names particularly interesting is they all played a major part of their careers with the Dodgers.  Let's get started.

Warren Spahn LHP.  After a 25-year career with the Braves, Spahn's contract was sold to the Mets after the 1964 season.  At the age of 44, Spahn went 4-12 for the Mets in a dual pitcher/pitching coach role.  He was placed on waivers and released by the Mets and signed with the Giants in July.  He remained with the Giants to the end of the season which proved to be his final MLB season.  

1965(Giants):  3-4, 3.39, 71.2 IP, 4.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.

It should be noted that Spahn's career strikeout rate was 4.4, amazingly low for a HOF career.  Although the Giants fell short by 2 games in the pennant race against the Dodgers, Spahn made a significant contribution on a team that didn't have much pitching behind ace Juan Marichal.

Joe Morgan 2B.  Morgan made his HOF reputation as the sparkplug of the Big Red Machine.  He signed a free agent contract with the Giants in 1981 at age 37 after one return season with the Astros.  

1981:  .240/.371/.377, 8 HR, 14 SB, 17.5 BB%, 9.8 K%, 378 PA.
1982:  .289/.400/.438, 14 HR, 24 SB, 15.3 BB%, 10.8 K%, 554 PA.

Morgan's first season with the Giants did not go well and he only appeared in 90 games but his 1982 season is legendary in Giants history.  He was a major contributor to a team that hung with the Dodgers and Braves down to the last 3-game series of the season.  Although the Giants were eliminated, Morgan made himself a Forever Giant by hitting a 3-run HR that eliminated the Dodgers too.  I was living in SoCal at the time but was able to listen to the Dodgers radio broadcast and heard Vin Scully make the crushing HR call on my car radio, a moment I won't forget.

Steve Carlton LHP.  Carlton was released by the Phillies during the 1986 season.  He signed on with the Giants and even broke his silence with the press to give a press conference.  He pitched seven shutout innings and hit a 3-run HR in one game but overall went 1-3 with a 5.10 ERA.  He also recorded his 4000'th career strikeout while wearing a Giants uniform.  He announced his retirement on August 7 but four days later signed on with the White Sox going 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA over the rest of the season.  He finally retired for good at age 44 before the 1989 season.

Randy Johnson LHP.  RJ signed with the Giants for the 2009 season at age 45.  

2009:  8-6, 4.88, 96 IP, 8.06 K/9, 2.91 BB/9.

The ERA is not great but RJ was credited with 8 Wins and ate 96 innings in essentially a half-season of starts.  He also recorded his 300'th career Win while wearing a Giants uniform.  A shoulder injury suffered while diving for an infield dribbler forced him to retire at the end of the season.

Dusty Baker OF.  Baker signed with the Giants as a free agent for the 1984 season at the age of 35.  

1984:  .292/.387/.374, 3 HR, 4 SB, 13.9 BB%, 9.4 K%, 287 PA.  

In limited playing time he hit for a high average and OBP but with little power.  He went on to play two more seasons with the Oakland A's.  Of course he would eventually find his way back to the Giants as a beloved manager.  He currently serves as an advisor in the Giants front office.  

Reggie Smith 1B.  Smith signed with the Giants as a free agent for his final MLB season at age 37.  He was part of the 1982 team along with Joe Morgan who fell just short of a NL West Division championship. 

1982:  .284/.364/.470, 18 HR, 7 SB, 11.6 BB%, 11.6 K%, 398 PA.  

Although he was an OF for most of his illustrious career, Smith played 1B for the Giants and played well accumulating and fWAR of 2.9.

Orel Hershiser RHP.   Hershiser signed with the Giants for the 1998 season at age 40.  

1998:  11-10, 4.41, 202.0 IP, 5.61 K/9, 3.79 BB/9.  

Amazing that Hershiser's career K/9 was just 5.79.  Although the ERA as not great, he made 32 starts and averaged 6.3 IP/Start.  I guess there was a reason they called him Bulldog!

If the experiences of these players are any indication, Justin Verlander will likely not win a Cy Young Award with the Giants but will probably make a significant contribution and possibly leave Giants fans with some fond memories.

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Justin Verlander

The last time Justin Verlander pitched in what was then AT&T Park was in Game 1 of the 2012 World Series when Pablo Sandoval lit him up.  I have long had a suspicion that Verlander low key had Giants envy and wanted to pitch for them, or else he absolutely hated the place and wouldn't pitch there again if his life depended on it.  Well, maybe we now know how he really felt.  Buster Posey finally got his veteran SP although one who is unlikely to be quite the innings vacuum we hoped for.  Verlander and the Giants agreed to a 1 yr/$15 M contract which seems to be pretty much the going rate for any pitcher with starting experience and a pulse this Hot Stove League season.  In my mind I am thinking it's a 1 yr/$5 M contract for the pitcher and a $10 M bonus for the HOF cred which is OK by me. Here is his pitching line last year which was a struggle:

5-6, 5.48, 90.1 IP, 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9.  

He missed time twice with injuries, shoulder inflammation in April and a neck problem in June-August.  His ERA in the starts after coming back from the neck injury ballooned to 8.00.  Maybe after an offseason to heal, he can revert to his 2023 form in which he made 27 starts and pitched 162 innings with a 3.31 ERA and don't forget he won a Cy Young Award as recently as 2022.  I assume, as always, the deal is contingent on a physical exam.  It wouldn't be the first time Verlander bounced back to have a sensational season after a seemingly career-ending injury.  On the other hand, he is entering his age 42 season and nobody pitches forever.

So Justin Verlander joins a distinguished list of future Hall of Famers to wear a Giants uniform near the end of their careers including Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson.  If you include non-pitchers there is Joe Morgan.  If you include Hall of Very Good Players you can add in Dusty Baker, Reggie Smith and Orel Hershiser.  In general they all played well and made the team better by their presence on the roster.

So fingers crossed that Verlander is healthy and gives the Giants at least a half season of solid pitching.  That would take some heat off the Logan Webb and the young pitchers and buy the Giants some time to getting them seasoned and into situations where they can succeed.  I would sure as heck rather see this contract than a long-term mega deal for Jack Flaherty and Verlander is probably more likely to be an upgrade for the rotation for however long he is healthy than my white whale, Cal Quantrill.  The deal also leaves Buster with a little room to add a budget veteran bat like a Jesse Winker, Austin Hays or Ramon Laureano.  

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #46 Robert Hipwell

Robert Hipwell 3B.  DOB:  3/6/2003.  B-L, T-R.  6' 3", 200 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 6(Santa Clara).

2024(College):  .273/.442/.515, 3 HR, 20.9 BB%, 24.4 K%, 86 PA.
2024(MLBD):  .245/.385/.359, HR, 15.4 BB%, 27.7 K%, 65 PA.
2024(A):  .196/.360/.402, 5 HR, 15.4 BB%, 29.4 K%, 136 PA.

Missed most of college junior season due to a PED suspension after projecting as one of the top college hitters in the draft coming out of his sophomore campaign.  Has power and strong plate discipline but that leads to a higher K rate.  At this point he looks like an extreme 3-true outcomes guy which may not project at higher levels.  May need to swing at more hittable pitches earlier in the count.  Decent defender who also play corner OF and 1B but the bat will determine his ceiling.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Eli Willits

Eli Willits SS, HS.  DOB:  12/3/2007.  B-S, T-R.  6' 1", 165 lbs.   

Son of former MLB player Reggie Willits.  Youngest player in the draft after reclassifying.  Committed to Oklahoma where his brother played as a freshman last season and his father is the associate head coach.  High energy player with an advanced hit tool but more of a slap hitter at this stage of his development.  Needs to fill out his frame which he should be able to do as he matures.  Reminds me a bit of Brice Turang at a similar age.

Monday, January 6, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #47 Maui Ahuna

Maui Ahuna SS.  DOB:  3/11/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 1", 170 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 4

2024(ACL):  .342/.405/.658, 3 HR, 3 SB, 4.8 BB%, 33.3 K%, 42 PA.
2024(A):  .236/.355/.281, HR, 5 SB, 15.0 BB%, 26.2 K%, 107 PA.

Ahuna is a slick-fielding shortstop with a questionable hit tool and little to no power.  He can draw a walk and steal a base.  Defense gives him some staying power.  Can he develop the bat?

Hot Stove League Update: Dodgers Trade Gavin Lux; Lorenzen Re-signs With Reds

In a very weird turn of events, the Dodgers traded former first round draft pick and top prospect, Gavin Lux, to the Reds for their 2024 3'rd round draft pick, Mike Sirota, who has yet to play a professional game and the Reds Competitive Balance Round A draft pick.  I guess the writing was on the wall for Lux after the Dodgers signed Hyeseong Kim IF, who doesn't seem like as good a player as Lux, to a free agent contract although at the time they insisted the signing would not impact their starting infielders and Kim would play more of a super-utility role.  Lux has admittedly had his issues but he got red hot down the stretch last season and made a major contribution to the Dodgers championship run.  The move is kind of odd for the Reds too as they already have Elly De La Cruz at SS and Matt McLain at 2B.  Maybe Lux will play a utility role with them?  or maybe they will make another move?

And let's talk about the Dodgers and their vaunted scouting and development regime.  What do they have to show for it?  Yes, Will Smith is a pretty darn good catcher but he is the only homegrown player on their entire positional depth chart with Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May bringing up the rear of the starting pitching depth chart.  On the other hand you have complete busts in Miguel Vargas and Diego Cartaya and now Lux getting unceremoniously traded.  

I do not want to hear anymore complaining about how the Giants farm sytem and scouting/development programs compare unfavorably to the Dodgers.

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Michael Lorenzen RHP re-signed with the Royals for 1 yr/$7 M.  Lorenzen will be paid $5.5 M this season but with a buyout of $1.5 M on a $12 M mutual option.  Mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties so it's probably 1 yr/$7 M with $1.5 M deferred.  

Lorenzen hasn't exactly been an innings eater over his career but has pitched a total of 283 innings over his last two seasons with not terrible ERA's.  I continue to believe the Giants need a veteran starter who can take some of the heat off Logan Webb and buy time for the younger pitchers to sort themselves out.  While Lorenzen doesn't quite fill the innings eating role he has the best ERA of any of the remaining "value" options.  The contract he got from the Royals seems like one the Giants could have easily topped with money still to spare to make other additions.


DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #48 Jakob Christian

Jakob Christian OF.  DOB:  9/17/2002.  B-R, T-R.  6' 5", 225 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 5.

2024(A):  .267/.378/.500, HR, 13.5 BB%, 21.6 K%, 37 PA.
2024(College):  .364/.460/.828, 26 HR, 9 SB, 11.9 BB%, 20.0 K%, 235 PA.

Big strong power hitter with enough athleticism and arm to play RF.  On video appears to have short, compact swing for a big guy with a direct path to the ball which he starts from a slight crouch.  MLB scouting report thinks he may have a bit of a groove in his swing.  Very small pro sample size so far but numbers translate about where you would expect from college ball to A ball.  One of several sleepers out of the Giants 2024 draft.  Looking forward to seeing a full pro season of results.  Potential to move way up in next year's rankings.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Brendan Summerhill

Brendan Summerhill OF, College.  DOB:  11/13/2023.  B-L, T-R.  6' 3", 205 lbs.  

2024(College):  .324/.399/.550, 18 2B, 6 3B, 8 HR, 7 SB, 11.1 BB%, 12.9 K%, 279 PA.
2024(CCL):  .286/.358/.441, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 12 SB, 95 PA, 9.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, 95 PA.

Summerhill's tools grade out as above average across the board.  Played mostly RF for Arizona but played CF well in the Cape Cod League.  Showing more gap than HR power but strong plate discpline and contact numbers.  Probably more of a high floor than ceiling prospect but value goes way up if he can cover CF at the MLB level.