Thomas Szapucki LHP. DOB: 6/12/1996. 6'2", 210 lbs. Drafted 2015 Round 5(Mets)
2022(AAA- Mets): 2-6, 3.38, 64 IP, 12.23 K/9, 4.08 BB/9.
2022(AAA- Giants): 0-0, 1.08, 8.1 IP, 16.20 K/9, 3.24 BB/9.
2022(Mets): 0-1, 60.75, 1.1 IP, 3 BB, 2 K.
2022(Giants): 0-0, 1.98, 13.2 IP, 4 BB, 16 K.
For some reason I though Szapucki had graduated from prospect status so left him off the Top 50 list. Not sure where I would slot him in but definitely in top 30. Ironically, the reason he is a Giant at all might be directly related to a disaster start against them with the Mets early in the season. That start may be what made the Mets consider him expendable and perhaps the Giants saw something in the carnage that made them think he had potential?
The Mets developed him as a SP but the Giants immediately put him in the bullpen and he responded with excellent numbers at both AAA and MLB levels. There seems to be one bullpen roster spot open for competition and the early money is Szapucki to fill that spot. Fangraphs lists him as having no options left but Ben Kaspick of Locked on Giants says he has it on good authority that he still has one option left so he could start the season back in AAA and still remain in the organization. Either way there is a high probability he'll contribute to the Giants season, most like as a reliever but could be stretched out to start if necessary. He could also be flipped in a midseason trade.
You don't have to squint too hard to see major leaguers through your top 30 (plus Szapucki and Hjelle) and a harder squint might pick a few more in the 30's and 40's, including, but not limiting to, Alexander Suarez OF and Anthony Rodriguez SS from the 40's (as you pointed out December 28th).
ReplyDeleteFWIW, who would have thought that Henry would be better than his brother Heliot? Henry didn't reach AAA until he was 24, Heliot will be 24 in September.
~80% of your list have been drafted or picked up under Zaidi.
Conceivably, although probably not likely, considering, your Top 9 all have a route to MLB:
Delete1. Kyle Harrison LHP
2. Marco Luciano SS
3. Casey Schmitt 3B
4. Carson Whisenhunt LHP
5. Luis Matos OF
6. Reggie Crawford LHP/1B/DH
7. Aeverson Arteaga SS
8. Grant McCray OF
9. Vaun Brown OF
And maybe half the next 13 have some chance, no matter how unlikely:
10. Patrick Bailey C
11. Jairo Pomares LF
12. Mason Black RHP
13. Landon Roupp RHP
14. Carson Seymour RHP
15. Will Wilson SS
16. Heliot Ramos OF
17. Cole Waites RHP
18. R. J. Dabovich RHP
19. Trevor McDonald RHP
20. Jose Cruz RHP
21. Eric Silva RHP
22. Adrian Sugastey C
And you can't count all of your remaining Top 30:
23. Will Bednar RHP
24. Blake Sabol OF/C
25. Randy Rodriguez RHP
26. Keaton Winn RHP
27. Brett Wisely IF
28. Tristan Beck RHP
29. Matt Mikulski LHP
30. Chris Wright LHP
Half the 2026 roster may well be on that list.
And there's no Beede or Brown or Bishop or Bickford or Burriss or Bonser or Bump or Barnicle on it.
Honestly this looks like a lot of bench players and bullpen pitchers at best once you get past Harrison. Not a lot of power and not one even close to a sure thing. We have a lineup filled with expensive mediocre players and looks like we can expect more mediocrity with just a lower price tag. Should clear up money to spend on high priced FA’s to build around but so far that hasn’t happened in 5 offseasons under this front office. Still seems like they are years away from any of these guys providing any real impact as well. Missing on essentially 6 first round picks if you include the 12 million they paid for Wilson is one of the reasons I don’t see this team winning anything significant for a long time. Can’t wait for the season to start because I love baseball and the Giants but can’t stop feeling negative about the direction of this team over the next few years at least.
DeleteJust in the last season or two, we couldn't acquire a star for lack of desirable young prospects.
DeleteI suppose the test is how many on the list might entice sellers this season to send a young, controllable star our way, without seriously setting the talent pipeline back. For example, if you don't include, say, the top 3, what star can you get?
Once again, intelligent reasonable people can look at the same information and have different opinions. As I have said many times, the failure(so far) of the first rounders is a significant drag on the system. On the other hand, there are enough players on the list with a solid chance to be an eventual multi-year MLB player that you have to think some of them will make it.
DeleteAdding to Anon at 9:14AM, regarding impactful FA's, another factor, beside clearing up money, is that you have to have an emerging young core, under several years of team control, to make them interested.
DeleteI doubt they want to join a team with many '2-year, with an opt out after 1 season' free agents. They might ask, what kind of team am I joining. So, unless a bunch of young kids step up this season, next year's team will be uncertain to the degree that we will be looking to replace many of this year's free agents as they possibly or probably will walk after just one season. It'd seem unlikely to me that any star would want to come, unless we win like 109 games, AND we spend to retain those essential 1-year free agents who are opting out, or as previously stated, a bunch of young kids emerge.
Alternatively, there is another way to acquire stars, as mentioned at 9:16 AM. You make in-season trades, like the Padres and Dodgers did the past few seasons, by giving up some of your prospects who are considered desirable by other teams.
Have we forgotten that Carlos Correa accepted a contract offer from the Giants?
DeleteHaven’t forgotten that he accepted the contract and definitely haven’t forgotten how it ultimately turned out! One of the reasons I don’t have confidence in them signing any top tier FA’s, they didn’t come out looking great after everything. Another reason to Anon’s point, there needs to be a solid young core with potential for a high quality FA to take a chance on coming here and that seems like at least 2-3 years away. How much rope does this front office get if it is going to take them 7-8 years to build the sustainable perennial contender they claimed they could? If they don’t win the WS by year 8 can we pull the plug? How long before we miss Boch now that he is back and we could have kept him around the whole time if we hadn’t gone all analytical??
DeleteSo, the whole medical saga is a completely different issue than whether he was willing to sign a contract with a team with no core and a crappy farm system, as you say. Look, I miss Boch. We all miss Boch. But I think we all sensed some fire went out of him after that third WS title and Flannery retiring. There appears to be a solid chance we see two frontline graduations this season: Harrison and Schmitt. The Giants have a surplus of starting pitchers at both the major and minor league levels as well as a surplus of RH hitting infielders they can potentially trade from. When I look at this year's prospect list I see significantly more strength than in recent memory. So I am actually cautiously, as always, optimistic.
DeleteCorrea is a good example to counter my argument.
DeleteStill, it's just one out of several highly sought-after free agents whom we had pursued in recent years, I believe. So, it would seem to be possible, not outright impossible, though we would like the team to be a more attractive destination, and with that, more success outcomes, and perhaps also more choices to select from.
Isn't this a case of a glass being "half empty" or "half full"?
DeleteHow could you rule out any of Dr B's top 9 players say he isn't capable of being a contributing player in the future?
IMO, there are more "likelies" than "unlikelies" in the top 9.
Then look at the Giants' 40-man roster: half of them are 26 yo or younger and only one of them – Heliot Ramos a 22 yo, pre-Zaidi 1st round pick, has a ? on his future.
The 2023 Giants are a solid team with two unknowns: the 2nd catcher and, like every other team, how healthy they will be over 162 games. The 2nd catcher doesn't really matter unless he or Bart breaks out, so it will come down to how the players perform. If they are close to being a playoff team, they have plenty of resources to spend at the deadline for a key player.
And they have tremendous payroll flexibility for the future with no crippling contract. Maybe they'll need to add a SS or a CFer or an SP: almost no one turns down the best contract offer – every player wants "security for his family" or so they say.
"Plenty of resources to spend...for a key player"
DeleteI hope so. Last year, I believe the management said we didn't have to prospects.
Maybe we will have, this year.
I wish I could predict how prospects will develop as well as the anons who post here.
ReplyDeleteAnd I wish I had a better memory then I could remember all those Free Agents who wouldn't sign with the Giants.
I do remember Bryce Harper (who at 30 yo has future salaries of $235.8M) and Aaron Judge (who at 31 yo has future salaries of $360M) – both with injury histories that will likely become albatrosses.
I also remember the Giants being able to sign FA pitchers and players who want to play in SF.
Also, the Giants of 2020 and 2022, had Posey honored his contract and had (older) players like Crawford and Belt and Longoria been reasonably healthy – like they were in 2021 – would have made the playoffs both years.
Zaidi inherited a broken team (average wins from 2017-2019 was 71) with a weak farm system – not a single 1st round pick since Buster Posey in 2008 had been developed into an everyday player!
Panik, with 1 good year for the Giants out of 8 seasons, was the best.
BTW, the Giants off-season this year is rated as 4th best of the 30 teams and NO albatrosses!
Signing a superstar to a multi-year 9-figure contract is not a mandatory requirement to a good offseason or building a winning team. In fact, a majority of those types of contracts do become albatrosses before they are done. Although Carlos Correa is a very good player and would have transformed the vibe for the Giants, I was not thrilled at the thought of what his contract would look like in 7 or 8 years before the medical issue arose.
DeleteWhat Sabean did to put together those championships is truly amazing, with the core drafted and developed by the team, and we signed free agents and made trades to supplement that core.
DeleteThat's the preferred path, but is not the only way though.
And we are a big market team. The business side of the franchise is such that they want stars, and it appears this offseason, the timing was there with a need and a chance to fill that need. One assumes it was the same situation when they tried to sign Harper a few seasons back, but apparently we weren't attractive enough and/or did not offer enough money.
I wonder if Bryce Harper ever wonders what might have been in 2021 had he signed with the Giants?
DeleteDon't forget a lot of people were still calling for Sabean to be fired as late as Opening Day 2010 and a few even after that.
DeleteThose calling for Sabean to be fired at that time may be re-thinking that opinion today.
DeleteI wonder if the Giants regret not offering Harper the same contract they offered Correa 13 yrs $350 mil. I know they are 5 years apart in their pursuits but isn't Harper the better player.
ReplyDeleteMaybe losing out on Harper made them realize if they want to sign a player of that caliber they have to not only have the highest offer, they have to blow every other team's offer out of the water.
Delete