Sunday, April 5, 2020
Scouting the 2020 Draft: Justin Lange
Justin Lange RHP, HS. 6'4", 190 lbs.
Justin Lange is yet another highly projectable pitcher in this draft class. The frame is classic with plenty of room for added size and strength, which he may have already added. PG has his FB at 93, but other less reliable reports have him touching triple digits this spring. He's got a well-coordinated delivery that uses his whole body. Releases is low 3/4. Think a lefty version of Madison Bumgarner with a little less extension and a little more elbow action. Brady Singer is another comp that comes to mind. Fangraphs has an up arrow next to his name at #64. I don't see him in MLB Pipeline's top 100.
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Question about the impact of draft changes brought on by COVID-19 pandemic from the previous Scouting the 2020 Draft post. Like Scott Thompson said in his comment, it's very hard to know, especially since new draft rules have yet to be finalized. I'll offer what thoughts I can.
I think they have to keep the 2020 and 2021 drafts separate as combining them would be just too chaotic from a scouting/ranking standpoint. It's totally understandable to push it back by a month or two or three until we have more clarity regarding how the pandemic is progressing or hopefully regressing.
As for length of the draft, look, the draft does not need to be 40 rounds. Just look at the players drafted in rounds 30-40 and you know those rounds are purely for ****'s and giggles anyway. The other dirty secret of the draft is that somewhere around the 15'th round, most teams aren't drafting potential future MLB'ers but drafting to fill out minor league rosters. So, cutting the draft down to 5 rounds might be a bit extreme but if the purpose of the draft is competitive balance, that's really all you need, maybe even less!
The most disturbing part of the proposed plan is limiting the bonuses for undrafted free agents to $10 K. Basically the MLBPA threw amateur players under the bus to free up money to support guys who are already union members. Understandable, but that does not make it right. Seems like there must be some avenue for a lawsuit in there somewhere.
As for how these changes might affect draft strategy, I have no idea. I think you still go for the best player available at each draft slot. I've never understood why you would take less than the BPA in round 1 where at least half the value of the draft is found, to save money for lesser players later in the draft where success is, at least statistically, a lot less likely.
With the Giants having 5 picks in the top 100 and an extremely deep draft, they have a chance to really turbocharge their farm system. The system is currently stocked well enough so they can afford to take some HS players who might take longer to develop. The system is weakest in pitching by a wide margin. Statistically, the best return from the first round is college hitting so if a great college hitter is available there, I think that's what you take, but I'd like to see at least 3 of the top 5 picks used on pitching which is extraordinarily deep in this class.
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Might we get a window into Farhan's approach to roster building for a team that plays in a park that punishes hitters and rewards pitchers, when it comes time to make selections for this draft? The recent collection of impressive offensive players, interestingly initiated by Sabean/Evans, addresses the challenge of bringing in established offensive players through free agency. Did the Giants just stumble into that, or has it been part or a larger plan?
ReplyDeleteIf the draft gets moved back by say two months, there is a chance there will be at least a partial resumption of play for HS age and college age players. You will be able to spot the scouts in the stands, because they will be the ones falling asleep while holding their radar guns. LOL. The pressure on those guys to be in five places at once will be real.
I miss baseball horribly. My son is a sophomore in HS (committed to the University of Santa Clara to play for the Broncos) and this is by far the longest he has gone without baseball in like forever. But man o man the Giants have a lot more interesting things to talk about than most teams. My brother-in-law is a coach in the Giants organization - Arizona Rookie League Giants Orange - and he says they have a really good crew again this year. We are all lucky. We may have one more rough MLB season ahead of us, but from there it gets pretty exciting. Payroll relief coupled with the matriculation to SF of some of the exciting young talent should make for some great times at 3rd and Market. And, we will have Doc's blog to follow all the action
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this, Doc.
ReplyDeleteYou voiced several of my thoughts here. Namely, I’ve always found it odd how teams manipulate bonuses to draft players later than they would but pay them as if they were a higher pick. If the draft were shortened to 5 rounds I think you’ll see teams stick to their board and go BPA (save for players who aren’t signable) throughout.