Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Midseason Q/A

We'll take advantage of the All-Star Break to to a midseason Q/A.  Fire away with any baseball related questions.  I'll post them during the day and respond this evening.  If readers want to comment in the meantime, that's OK.
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21 comments:

  1. WrenzieJuly 13, 2016 at 7:12 AM

    Hello DrB. Who is the top prospect that you can let go in the trade deadline and why? Things are pretty slow this year in terms of the comments here but you still produce great output as always.

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 13, 2016 at 7:42 AM

      Maybe I will do a post on what I hope the Giants do or don't do before the trade deadline. I guess my thinking right now is either go bold or stand pat. I do not consider any current prospect to be untouchable at this time. The Giants have a deep farm system and a large core at the MLB level and can afford to be aggressive to try to win now. So yeah, if Ryan Braun or Andrew Miller is available and it takes Arroyo + Bickford, I say go for it!

      As for who I would least like to see traded, you can pretty much go with the Top 50 list in order.

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    2. DrBGiantsfanJuly 13, 2016 at 7:43 AM

      Oh, and thanks for the kind words. I think the moderation system keeps the comments down a bit, but readership is still strong. Unfortunately, there is still a troll or two out there who just doesn't want to let go, so we have to keep the moderating system.

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  2. campanariJuly 13, 2016 at 4:01 PM

    Braun is at 1.3fWAR in a bit over 300 PAs this year; Parker + Williamson, at 1 fWAR in a bit under 200 PAs. And Braun hasn't had a really good season since 2012. Given that record, and his age and his contract, I have to say I would be unhappy if the Giants acquired him at all. Or was "Ryan Braun" in your comment above, DrB, just a place holder for "some well-established player on the decline who could give the Giants a genuine boost in 2016-2017"? That's a rubric that would fit Andrew Miller, at 31+.

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 13, 2016 at 7:38 PM

      I don't think you can simply look at fWAR's score for a half season and base your decisionmaking solely on that. Here is Ryan Braun's slash line in the first half: .312/.367/.514, 13 HR, 7 SB.

      Yes, the contract is a problem, and he brings a lot of baggage with him, but I don't think there is much question that Braun would be a tremendous offensive asset in the second half and postseason. I'm not expecting it to happen for any number of reasons, but the point I was making is if it is within the realm of possibility, I would consider any of the Giants prospects untradeable to get it done.

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    2. DrBGiantsfanJuly 13, 2016 at 8:57 PM

      I would also point out that 4 championships in 7 seasons is something only the Yankees have ever done before, so it's definitely a worthy target to take some future risk on.

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  3. enwritJuly 13, 2016 at 6:20 PM

    So the Giants have 20 days to figure out what to do with Adrianza. I think its an easy choice to keep him on the roster, considering the flashes shown during the end of last season into this one. I would put him ahead of any of the journeyman fill ins.
    Your thoughts?

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 13, 2016 at 7:39 PM

      Eh…I just don't see who Adrianza would replace on the 40 man roster right now. I think they will DFA him and he will likely clear waivers once again. If not, the Giants have mucho plenty of utility IF types who can get the job done.

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  4. RahulJuly 13, 2016 at 6:47 PM

    Hey DrB. The Giants are known for making moves for lesser known relievers such as Lopez at the trade deadline. Is there a reliever you think they are likely to get?

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 13, 2016 at 7:41 PM

      There are some LH relievers who they might consider such as Fernando Abad in Minnesota, but is Abad really an upgrade on Lopez or Osich? Boy, I'm really not sure about that.

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  5. AnonymousJuly 13, 2016 at 6:51 PM

    Hasn't the FO shied away from players associated with PEDs?
    Braun would be quite a coup but Milwaukee also has several relievers who would help the pen with free agencies out to 2020.
    This is not a revelation, but the team that pitches better usually wins a playoff series. Are you concerned about the depth of the bullpen == can the Giants continue to win close games with a lead through 5 or 6 innings?
    No doubt that Bochy, Rags, and Gardner are magicians, but there are still scary holes between the starter's last pitch and the closer's final out. There are plenty of new faces helping the Giants win close games but the loss of Affeldt and shakiness of Lopez and Casilla is worrisome. Suarez might sub out for Petit (a tall order) and Strickland is still Strickland but can Osich, Gearrin, and Law fill the holes?

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 13, 2016 at 7:44 PM

      I guess everything is relative and us Giants fans are spoiled by what their bullpens have accomplished over the past 6+ seasons. As shaky as it has been, if you look up a list of potentially available relievers, the ones who would be a clear upgrade on the current staff makes for a very short list! I am sure the Giants are looking hard at bullpen options. I am not so sure they are going to find something better than what they have now, especially with Romo back in the mix.

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  6. BryceJuly 13, 2016 at 10:08 PM

    Braun has one season with an OPS+ under 130 (113 In 2014). Solid average, powe, and some speed, even if he plays D like Morse, that's a valuable player. Where would he bat in the order assuming Pence is back? What would the cost be considering the considerable contract, if the Giants were even interested?

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 14, 2016 at 5:30 AM

      The BrewCrew has no compelling reason to trade Braun, even to dump his full contract. They would have to be blown away by the offer. I would say the minimum return would have to be 2 top prospects plus a couple of lesser prospects. They might even insist on a young controlled player currently on the active roster such as Big Mac or Joe Panik.

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  7. HubertJuly 13, 2016 at 10:10 PM

    In your prospect rankings, do you intentionally value prospects with a high ceiling over those who don't have star potential but are more likely to at least crack the bigs?

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 14, 2016 at 5:31 AM

      I weigh both factors, but I do tend to favor ceiling over proximity to the majors.

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  8. sam georgeJuly 14, 2016 at 2:08 AM

    who has been You're biggest breakout and biggest disappointment Prospect wise so far? Also I'd be curious to know who you think has the best of each tool in the system.

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 14, 2016 at 5:49 AM

      Several candidates for biggest breakout including Bickford, Chris Shaw, Cory Taylor and Dylan Davis. I'll go with CJ Hinojosa who, while not a complete surprise, was not expected to hit nearly this well in the pros.

      Biggest disappointment is easy: Chase Johnson with Johneshwy Fargas a close second.

      Best Tools? Let's see here. Power is a tie between Chris Shaw and Mac Williamson. Hit would be Christian Arroyo and not close. Run? Fargas or Lucius Fox and don't forget Cristian Paulino. Throw? Mac has a great arm. Maybe Steven Duggar? Catch? Look at the CF's Jebavy, Fargas, Reynolds. I saw Hinojosa go a long say for a flyball down in the LF bullpen area in San Bernardino earlier this year that made me jot down a note in my head.

      Fastball Velocity? I'll say Rodolfo Martinez or Ray Black. Fastball Movement? From everything I've read, Phil Bickford. Curveball? Slider? Changeup? Really no idea. Just wild guesses, but I'll say Andrew Suarez on the curveball, Coonrod on the slide piece and Beede on the changeup.

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  9. AnonymousJuly 14, 2016 at 10:15 AM

    If you think the Giants should stand pat remember they were playing at a .672 clip with a 10-game lead in 2014 then went under .500 to finish 6 games back in 2nd making the 2nd WC and the rest is history with additions Peavy and Panik making a difference.
    Yes, this is a different team and is adding players from the DL over the next month.

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    1. DrBGiantsfanJuly 14, 2016 at 8:41 PM

      I've never said the Giants should stand pat. They clearly have room for upgrades at a few positions. What I have said and will say again here is trading for low cost players for depth is not what they need. They already have depth coming out their ears. They have so much depth, there isn't room on the 40 man roster for it! If they pursue deadline trades, they need to be for players such as Braun or Andrew Miller who clearly upgrade the positions. If all they are trading for is depth, then yes, they would be better off to stand pat. For upgrades? I say go for it and sell the farm if they have to!

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    2. AnonymousJuly 15, 2016 at 8:35 AM

      Oops, that wasn't directed at you, Doc (altho on re-reading it looks like it was).
      Obviously, it's good to address weaknesses.
      Giants' OF last 3 WS has been Pence (for 2) and make-do players, and it'll probably be that again.
      SP is good enough.
      B/U's (if they get healthy) are adequate.
      RP's are the weakness, starting with the closer.
      Just fixing that makes the whole staff better as the relief problems are reduced by at least a third: one inning out of the final 3 is assured.
      With Romo, Casilla, and a lefty the 8th is solid.
      Then there are a bunch of fairly good guys for the 6th and 7th innings.
      Padres got MLB #34 prospect for Drew Pomeranz who may not be Andrew Miller but he's very good.
      Arroyo is rated lower than Espinoza but he's a lot closer to ML. Guys like Parker or Williamson could help the Yankees now. They have a lot of weaknesses yet they're still in the WC race.
      An attractive package could be put together -- attractive to us, anyway.
      And Miller isn't the only good closer.

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