Monday, July 11, 2016

DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Midseason Review

We'll try to give you a quick review of my pre-season Top 50 Giants prospects.  For the sake of time, I won't post a complete stat line.  If you really want to see the full lines, they can be easily found at linked to the left.  I will give the name and ranking and then give the prospect one of 5 stock trends, Up, Down, Way Up, Way Down and Stable.  I will include a few comments along the way.  Please not this is not a new list!  It is the same list but with midseason assessments of where the prospect is headed.  Here we go:

1.  Christian Arroyo IF, AA- Stock Stable.  It's pretty hard to improve on #1.  If you are one of those disappointed in his performance for Richmond, here are several things to consider:  Richmond is a tough hitting environment.  Arroyo is very young for the level.  He not only has had to adjust to the new level, the Giants have him playing multiple positions, SS, 3B, 2B.  Still the  top prospect in the system in my book.

2.  Tyler Beede, RHP, AA- Stock Stable.  Beede faded in the second half last year due to physical fatigue.  This year, he's getting stronger as the season goes along, at least so far.  Early reports had him hitting mid-high 90's on the radar guns.  I still consider him the top pitching prospect in the organization and believe him to be right on schedule in his development.

2.  Phil Bickford, RHP, High A- Stock Up.  The peripherals are better than the ERA, but Bickford dominated Low A ball and has dominated so far in High A San Jose earning a Futures Game berth.  Velocity is low 90's, but FB reportedly has tremendous movement.  Still would lag a bit behind Beede if I re-did the rankings, but he'd be closer.

4.  Mac Williamson, OF, MLB- Stock Stable.   Feels like Mac has graduated to the majors although he officially needs about 30 more AB's to shed his prospect status.  Has shown flashes of tremendous power and has made several web gem catches in the OF.  I believe the only thing between Big Mac and stardom is consistent AB's.  He may have to go back down to Sacramento to get them once Hunter Pence comes off the DL.

5.  Lucius Fox SS, Low A- Stock Stable.  In my Top 50 writeup, I said I would consider Fox's season a success if he hit .220 or better in the SAL, a very tough environment for hitters of any age and Fox just turned 19 on July 2.  He's right at .220 and showing flashes of power and enough speed to steal 19 bases so far.

6.  Clayton Blackburn, RHP, AAA- Stock Down.  Rough season for Blackburn so far, lending credence to those who say the lack of stuff trumps pitchability.

7.  Adalberto Mejia, LHP, AAA- Stock Up.  Mejia dominated AA and got a promo to Sacramento where his first start was even more dominant.  Since then he's scuffled a bit, but threw a perfect inning in the futures game.

8.  Josh Osich, LHP, MLB- Stock Stable.  Osich has stuck with the MLB club but has had his ups and downs.  Stuff is still impressive.  Has pitched better after a talk with Jeremy Affeldt in which Affeldt told him to trust his stuff.

9.  Chris Shaw, 1B, AA- Stock Up.  Shaw started out red hot in the Cal League and then cooled off a bit.  Still got the promo to Richmond and has hit well there so far. He and Mac are the premier power hitting prospects in the organization, although Arenado and Ryder Jones are making some noise as is Dylan Davis.

10.  Austin Slater OF, AAA- Stock Stable.  Started the season playing CF and hitting over .300 in Richmond. Got a promo to Sacramento and kind of hit a wall.  I think he may have missed some time with an injury.

11.  Chase Johnson, RHP, AA- Stock Way Down.  Seemed to be having a decent season for Richmond when he was suddenly sent to the bullpen then all but disappeared.  Reminiscent of what happened to him in college.  Is he hurt?  Did he have a falling out with management?  Off field issues?

12.  Sam Coonrod, RHP, AA-Stock Up.  Pitched well for San Jose but with so-so K rates.  Got a promo to Richmond and is holding his own there.

13.  Andrew Suarez, LHP, AA- Stock Up.  Solid, if unspectacular numbers for SJ and Richmond.

14.  Jordan Johnson, RHP, High A- Stock Stable.  Continues to put up better looking peripheral stats than ERA in SJ.

15.  Aramis Garcia C, High A- Stock Stable.  Was putting up good numbers for SJ before getting hit in the face with a pitch.  Should be back in the lineup soon.

16.  Ray Black RHP High A- Stock Down- Had a huge wild hair up his nose early in the season and his ERA ballooned.  Got demoted back to SJ. Has pitched much better lately.

17.  Rodolfo Martinez, RHP, AA- Stock Up.  Put up terrific numbers as the Closer for SJ with FB's sitting in the high 90's.  Has struggled a bit since his promo to AA, but reportedly hit 101 MPH in a recent game.

18.  Jarrett Parker, OF, MLB- Stock Stable.  Has not shown the power outburst we saw last year, but has been a steady performer, especially against RHP's.  Has shown he can at least stick as a 4'th OF.

19.  Chris Stratton, RHP, AAA- Stock Stable.  Has been so-so as a starter in AAA, but pitched well out of the bullpen though little used by Bruce Bochy.  I think his future is in middle-long relief.

20.  Mikey Edie, OF, Rookie AZL- Stock Down.  Still like the tools but has lost traction this season.  I think he lost some time to injury.  Time still on his side.

21.  Johneshwy Fargas, OF, Low A- Stock Down.  Flunked out of High A ball, but is getting his offensive game back together in Augusta.  Time is still on his side.

22.  Jalen Miller, IF, Low A- Stock Up.  Hanging in there in Augusta, a very tough environment for hitters.  Pretty much in the same boat as Lucius Fox.  Has impressed with his athleticism and tools.

23.  Kyle Crick, RHP, AA- Stock Stable.  Back in the rotation in Richmond.  Has had some very good starts and some very bad ones.

24.  Joan Gregorio, RHP, AAA- Stock Up.  Gregorio started slow then dominated in Richmond.  Got the promo to Sacramento.  A bit of a mixed bag there but has mostly pitched well in a very tough environment for pitchers.

25.  Matt Gage, LHP, AA- Stock Up.  Gage got an emergency call up to Richmond from Augusta last year and pitched so well, he never got sent back down!  He's been a rock in the Richmond rotation this season.

26.  Hunter Cole, OF, AA- Stock Up.  Cole started slow but has come on like gangbusters in the last month hitting for average with power.

27.  Ryder Jones, IF, AA- Stock Up.  Still not hitting for much of an average but has hit 9 dingers already for Richmond, where he is young for the league in a very tough environment for hitters.  Richmond is like New York for hitting prospects.  If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.

28.  Jonah Arenado, IF, High A- Stock Up.  Arenado impressed last year with a steady season for Augusta.  More than holding his own in the Cal League despite being young for the league.  Recent power surge since taking over as full time 1B after Chris Shaw was promoted.

29.  Miguel Gomez, IF, Low A- Stock Way Up.  This guy can hit!  Period!  Not sure why he has not been promoted.  Defense?  Lack of a position?  He definitely has nothing to prove the plate in Low A ball!

30.  Michael Santos, RHP, Low A- Stock Stable.  Santos has pitched well, but left the game on 6/3 after 2 IP and has not returned.

31.  CJ Hinojosa, SS, AA- Stock Way Up.  Tore up the Cal League in his first full pro season.  More than holding his own so far after a prom to AA.

32.  Ronnie Jebavy, OF, High A- Stock Stable.  Still a bit BA challenged but well on his way to a 10+/20+ season while playing CF.

33.  Steven Duggar, OF, AA- Stock Up.  Strong first half numbers for SJ.  Struggling a bit since promo to AA.

34.  Ian Gardeck, RHP, AA- Stock Down.  On the shelf with TJ.  He was already an older prospect and this long delay in development does not help.  Don't write him off just yet. Hunter Strickland is a comp.

35.  Jake Smith, RHP, AA- Stock Down.  Scuffled in AA after a tremendous season for SJ last year.  Recently lost to the organization after being claimed off waivers by the Angels after he was DFA'd to make room on the 40 man roster to activate Sergio Romo from the DL.

36.  Derek Law, RHP, MLB- Stock Way Up.  Pitching very well out of the Giants MLB bullpen.

37.  Ty Blach, LHP, AAA.  Stock Up.  Right now, Blach is the best SP on the Sacramento Roster and has suddenly started striking batters out like crazy in the last 2-3 starts.

38.  Rando Moreno, IF, AAA- Stock Up.  Moreno gets no respect, but keeps putting up impressive BA's at higher levels.  I think he's at least a future MLB utility IF.

39.  Dan Slania, RHP, AA- Stock Up.  Big Dan went from having a so-so season in the Richmond bullpen to having a strong season in the rotation after suddenly switching places with Chase Johnson.

40.  Martin Agosta, RHP, High A- Stock Down.  Agosta was starting to look like he was coming around when he just disappeared.  Last appearance 6/11.  I assume he's hurt again.  No bueno!

41.  Christian Jones, LHP, AA- Stock Stable.  Mixed success pitching out of the bullpen in Richmond.

42.  Jose Reyes, RHP, High A- Stock Down.  Hard thrower, but having trouble gaining traction in SJ.

43.  Jason Forjet, RHP, High A- Stock Down.  Should be dominating the Cal League but very mixed results.  No traction here yet.

44.  Jose Vizcaino Jr, IF, High A- Stock Stable.  Has shown flashes, but very mixed results.  High A was an aggressive placement for him, so I'll give him that.

45.  Deiyerbert Bolivar, LHP, ????- Stock Down.  No show so far on the season.  Hurt?

46.  Logan Webb, RHP, Low A- Stock Down.  Failed to build on his fine season last year in S-K.  Last appearance 5/31.  I assume this means injury since he hasn't surfaced in any short season leagues.

47.  Mac Marshall, LHP, Short Season- Stock Down.  Struggling mightily in S-K.

48.  Steven Okert, LHP, AAA- Stock Up.  Pitching quite well for Sacramento, failed to make much of in impression during a brief callup to SF.

49.  Kelvin Beltre, 3B, Low A- Stable.  Was looking good in the early going for Augusta, but then disappeared.  Last appearance was 6/11 at which point he was hitting .293 over his last 10 games.  Has had trouble staying healthy so far in his career.

50.  Gustavo Cabrera, OF, Short Season- Stock Up.  Just staying healthy is a victory for Gustavo.  He's otherwise holding his own with occasional flashes of power.

Honorable Mention:

Stock Way Up: Cory Taylor, RHP, Low A. Tyler Rogers, RHP, AAA.  Dylan Davis, OF, High A.

Stock Up- Dominic Mazza, LHP, Low A.  Dillon Dobson, IF, Low A.  Tyler Cyr, RHP, High A.  Jean Angomas, OF, Short Season.  Jose Morel, RHP, High A.  Kevin Rivera, 2B, Short Season. Trevor Brown, C, MLB.

Stock Stable- Matt Lujan, LHP, AAA.  Mitch Delfino, 3B, AAA.  Tyler Mizenko, RHP, AA.  Mark Reyes, LHP, High A.  DJ Snelton, LHP, High A.  Pat Young, RHP, High A.  Nolan Riggs, RHP, Short Season.  Ryan Halstead, RHP, Low A.  Luis Pino, RHP, Low A, Kendry Melo, RHP, Short Season.  Daniel Carbonell, OF, High A.  Phil McCormick, LHP, AA.  Ricky Oropesa, 1B, AAA.  Ty Ross, C, High A.  Dusten Knight, RHP, High A.  Seth Harrison, OF, Low A.  Tyler Horan, OF, AA.  Cristian Paulino, UT, High A.  Grant Watson, LHP, Low A.  Matt Pope, RHP, Short Season.  Cody Brickhouse, C, Rookie AZL.  Nathanael Javier, 3B, Rookie AZL.

Stock Down:  Tyler Brown, IF, Low A(last played 4/16).  Carlos Diaz, LHP, Rookie AZL.  Julio Pena, OF, Short Season.

Stock Way Down:  Dylan Brooks, RHP(Another drug suspension).  Jack Snodgrass, LHP.  (hurt? Out of organization?).  Hak-Ju Lee, SS, AAA(Opted out of contract), Brian Ragira, 1B(I think he was released).  Angel Villalona, 1B, High A/AA(has hardly played at all this year).  Stetson Woods, RHP, Rookie AZL(getting pounded every time he goes out).  Kleiber Rivas, C(has not played this year, released?).  Eury Sanchez, RHP(released.  Currently with Angels organization).  Fernando Pujadas, C(has not played this year, released?).  Byron Murray, OF(has not played this year).

Dominican Dandies:

Stock Way Up:  None.

Stock Up:  Manuel Geraldo, IF, Short Season.  Melvin Adon, RHP, Short Season.  Sandro Fabian, OF, Rookie AZL.  Beicker Mendoza, OF, Rookie AZL.  Hengerber Medina, RHP, Short Season.

Stock Stable:  Victor Concepcion, RHP, Short Season.  Sandro Cabrera, LHP, Rookie AZL.  Francisco Medina, 3B, DSL.  Jose Patino, CF, DSL.  Jose Rivero, SS, DSL.  Juan Rodriguez, IF, Low A.

Stock Down:  Mecky Coronado, C/OF(has not played this year).  Jesus Tona, C/IF, Rookie AZL.  Luis Amaya, LHP(has not pitched this year).

While there is a mixed bag here, overall, there are way more ups than downs, especially in the higher rankings.


  1. Logan Webb had Tommy John surgery, I believe in June.

    1. I think I remember something about that. He's still very young so time is on his side on the TJ.

    2. Webb pitched with a 90% tear in his UCL and bone spurs the whole season. They wanted him to get as much experience under his belt before the inevitable surgery as long as the pain was tolerable but unfortunately that causes arm slot issues to tolerate the pain and they started to notice that and shut him down.

  2. Does Law not fall in the 'graduated' category since he's been on the 25-man roster for more than 45 days now? And at the rate he's going, he'll pass the 50-inning rule this season as well. Or is it different for 'prospect' vs 'rookie.' Or do we wait until after the year he sheds his 'rookie' status?

    1. I am sure Law is or will be graduated.

    2. Remember, this is not a new list. It is a REVIEW of the pre-season list!

  3. If you had to rank Susac, where would you place him? Or do you consider him a non-prospect already (i.e., graduate)?

    1. Susac is officially "graduated" due to having more than 130 MLB AB's, although his current status is more like a prospect. He's in one of those gray areas that shows the limitations of arbitrary cutoffs.

  4. Forgive me if this has been posted already but here's a nice little article on Miguel Gomez:

    Not terribly insightful but interesting. Hope to see him in SJ soon!

  5. gomez needs to be put on the 40-man roster this off-season, that might be the issue.