Saturday, March 8, 2014

Fantasy Focus: All Non-Drafted Team- Batters

One of the exercises I like to go through in preparing for a fantasy draft is to look at the worst case scenario for every position.  In other words, who might I be able to count on getting if I leave a given position to the end of the draft or if I get too exuberant about spending money early in an auction.  With that in mind, I thought it might be fun to compile an All-Star team of players likely to be non-drafted.  I looked up players at each position who are less than 20% owned in Yahoo leagues right now.  Since this covers all Yahoo formats, it means that if you are in a standard 10 or 12 team league, there is close to a 100% chance that these guys will go undrafted, unless you take them at the end of your draft.  Let's take a look:

C  Welington Castillo, Cubs.  2013:  41 R, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 2 SB, .274 BA, 428 PA.  Castillo was widely regarded as a sleeper last spring.  Nobody is paying him any attention this year due to a somewhat disappointing 2013.  I would just call your attention to his second half stat line:  .288/.388/.475, 6 HR in 165 PA's.  Projected over a full season, those are monster numbers!  Not saying you can just multiply his second half stats by 3 and get his 2014 projection, but HR's in the high teens with a .270 BA is not at all unreasonable as an expectation.

1B  Justin Smoak, Mariners.  2013:  53 R, 20 HR, 50 RBI, 0 SB, .238 BA, 521 PA.  First base is a thin position this year and Smoak was the best I could find.   The 20 HR's is mildly interesting but he hit 19 in 2012 with a .217 BA.  You might want to use this information to decide to fill your 1B slot before the end of the draft.  On the other hand, if Smoak could just find a way to get his BA into the .250 range, he could become rosterable in CI/IF/UT slot in deeper leagues.

2B  Rickie Weeks, Brewers.  2013:  40 R, 10 HR, 24 RBI, 7 SB, .209 BA, 399 PA.  2B is another thin position.  2013 was a lost year for Weeks as he lost his starting 2B job.  The Brewers appear to be given him a chance to win it back this spring and he is swinging the bat better.  Personally I would not draft him, but his situation is worth watching closely in case you need to add a 2B from the waiver wire after the season starts.

3B  Cody Asche, Phillies.  2013:  18 R, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB, .235 BA, 179 PA.  For better or worse, Cody Asche is the Phillies starting 3B for 2014.  That alone makes him worth considering as a fantasy 3B as this is another thin position.  Whether he can sustain his 2013 performance is open to question, but it wasn't bad projected over a full season's worth of PA's.  Worth monitoring on the PA market after the season starts.

SS  Pedro Florimon, Twins.  2013:  44 R, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 15 SB, .221 BA, 446 PA.  At 6'2", 180 lbs, Florimon is large for a SS.  His 2013 numbers get interesting if projected over a full season's worth of PA's with double digit HR's and Steals an excellent possibility and 20/20 not out of the question.  Again, I would not draft him, but he's worth following closely on the FA market once the season starts.

OF  Raul Ibanez, Angels.  2013:  54 R, 29 HR, 65 RBI, 0 SB, .242 BA, 496 PA.  Ibanez just keeps going as he enters his age 42 season.  He is slated to be the Angels' full time DH which may bump his PA's close to 600.  Nice power source at the end of your draft.

OF  Justin Ruggiano, Cubs.  2013:  49 R, 18 HR, 50 RBI, 15 SB, .221 BA, 472 PA.   It looks like Ruggiano will be playing nearly everyday in the Cubs OF.  His .260 BABIP suggests the possibility of a bounceback in BA which should also help his counting stats. The move from Miami to Wrigley Field won't hurt a bit.  A 20/20 season is a strong possibility.

OF  Michael Morse, Giants.  2014(ZIPS):  48 R, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB, .253 BA, 427 PA.  Morse's season hinges on his health.  He will come out of game in which the Giants are leading in the late innings for a defensive replacement, so the projected PA's may not be too far off.  He could put up significantly better numbers if he remains fully healthy.

OF  Ryan Ludwick, Reds.  2014(ZIPS):  36 R, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 0 SB, .244 BA, 354 PA.  Ludwick's 2013 season was lost due to injury.  He appears to be healthy this spring and new manager Bryan Price is talking about batting him 4'th against LHP's and 5'th against RHP's this year.  He is a good bet for 20+ HR's if healthy and batting in the middle of the Reds lineup should push his R/RBI up considerably.


  1. here is the 4 minute clip that was used for the kickstarter campaign to get no no: a dockumentary made

    it just premiered at sxsw to rave reviews

    doc about the immortal dock ellis

    everyone was taking greenies....the game was not clean in the 70s by any stretch of the imagination

    and when the game itself promotes drug use, is it any wonder that many from that time became drug abusers?


    1. That looks amazing. Count me in as a contributor....soon as I dig through the couch for a few minutes, see what I can wrangle up.

      Thanks for the heads up Bacci

    2. its fully funded, thats how it premiered at sxsw

      they are just looking for a distributor

      really hope it gets picked up, because from the clips i have seen, appears to be a brilliant doc


  2. Remember all those folks on The Site That Shall Not Be Named who went ballistic after the Giants passed up on Smoak to draft Gerald D. Posey?

    1. I think if you go back and look up my comments about Smoak back then, I was leary of his relatively low BA in college. I don't care what anybody says, the hit tool is the most important parameter when judging a young position player and BA is still the best measure of that. Other stuff like K and BB rates can help flesh out the details, but the bottom line is you have to be able to barrel up the ball and BA is still a darn good measure of that.

    2. I remember all that! Wow, what a different era of Giants & overall MLB baseball we'd be living if those two picks were swapped.. Thank you Barr, Sabean, and ownership for putting their money where their mouths and brains were. These are years I'll be talking about many years from now, that much I already know...