Friday, February 14, 2014

Thoughts on Spring Training

In one of my favorite movie scenes of all time in Fever Pitch, the Drew Barrymore character tells the Jimmy Fallon character that it's time for him to meet her family and tells him when she wants to take him there.  He responds that he has to go to Florida for Spring Training then.  Drew:  "Those are practice games!"  Jimmy:  "I have to go scout the players."  Drew:  "The Red Sox pay you to do this?" Jimmy:  "No, well, not yet anyway!"

Pitchers and catchers report to the Giants spring training camp in Scottsdale, AZ today, probably the most anticipated event in which absolutely nothing happens in all of sports!  The rest of the team will report a few days later and the first exhibition game gets underway more than 3 weeks before the official start of Spring and more than a month before the start of the regular Major League Baseball season.

Now, I love spring training as much as any red-blooded baseball fan.  I love the feeling of a new start, the hope of discovering new and better players for the team you root for, the chance to see minor leaguers perform against established major league players.   Having said that, I can't quite shake the feeling that last year's interminable spring training, lengthened by the World Baseball Classic, played a role in the Giants subpar performance in 2013.  I mean, the Giants played an extremely emotional extra month of baseball in the Fall of 2012 only to have to report to spring training early, only to grind through even more game made even more meaningless by the absence of those participating in the WBC.  I mean, I don't care how much you love baseball and how much you get paid, there has to be a burnout threshold in there somewhere!

Let's take a look at some of the rituals of Spring Training that do not, or should not have, any effect at all on the regular baseball season.

Getting In Shape:  Back in the day, ballplayers did not train year-around.  Many of them had non-baseball jobs in the offseason or sat around and did nothing all winter.  Spring training was used to get back into condition for the season.  Nowadays, players who don't come to camp already in shape are probably not going to be in shape when the season starts either.  Conditioning is a year-around activity. Spring Training is not needed to get in shape!

Working on Fundamentals:  Really?  Playing this game has been the center of your life since you were about 10 years old or younger and you really think that an extra hour of running to cover first base because there is nothing else to do in the first week of spring training is going to make a difference in August?

Position Battles:  Scouts think they can see all they need to know about a player in 1 AB or 1 IP.  Statisticians think they need at least 3 years of data.  Nobody seriously thinks that 30-40 AB's or 10 IP in Spring Training has any predictive value whatsoever, yet decisions that potentially impact the performance of the team are made on this severely limited sample size.  You could literally do just as well flipping a coin when you have two players competing for the same job.

Ramping Up:  College teams go directly from the practice field to full bore games that count towards playoff rankings with nothing more than in intrasquad game or two.  That does not prevent full starts and terrific performances from day 1 of the college season.  When MLB players miss a chunk of time with an injury, they typically play 3-4 rehab games in the minors, but not always.  It does not have a discernible impact on performance once they are back in MLB games.  I remember when Juan Marichal and other SP's from his era routinely pitched 3 innings in their first exhibition appearance.   There is just no way MLB players need a full month of games to ramp up to the season!

Much as I am excited by the arrival of Spring Training, part of me dreads the dog days of late March when it becomes obvious the players would rather be almost anywhere else.  Part of me wishes some team would just cancel the first 3 weeks of Spring Training and open camp on March 6 or something close to that.  Of course, it won't happen.  The ritual is so set in stone it is codified in the Basic Agreement between the MLBPA and MLB.  It even stipulates how many veteran players have to go in spring training road games!

18 comments:

  1. Great post. Funny Fallon line up top and plenty of truths below, especially the dog days of mid to late March.

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  2. BASEBALL IS BAAAAAAAACCCCKKKKK

    st needs to be rethought

    it is now more important for the minor leaguers than the guys in the majors

    it is definitely a week, maybe two, too long

    but know who actually needs st....the guys in the booth

    they use it to get to know the new guys, the kids in the minors and find out what has been happening with the vets

    semi big news from the southland....scully is mulling this not to be his last season

    doc, thank you for a wonderful offseason of great posts and information

    now....LETS PLAY BALL

    bacci

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    1. Thanks, Bacci. Great to have you back commenting. Looking forward to a great season, win or lose. Lots of great story lines in the minors. Can we just fast-forward through spring training?

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    2. fyi, i read all your posts, i just didnt comment, cuz wasnt much to add

      i think there is a big financial incentive for the clubs to keep a full month of st...as there is one for az. and florida....so i dont think we are gonna see a shrinking of the time frame

      and lets face it....unless they start the season with every team playing on the west coast....there is pretty much no way to start before april 1

      have you seen the signs for the new dodgers network?

      and kemp pretty much demanded a trade yesterday, saying, "i will not play as a 4th of"

      he will look good in pinstripes

      bacci

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  3. Isn't it more to do with getting pitchers ready?

    Adding a few more games, just in case.

    Then throw in a few more, just because there is money on the ground...

    Of course, they also practice the art of teasing, for the main event.

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    1. I honestly believe pitchers could safely ramp up faster. In college, Friday starters will be going full bore tonight with no exhibition games at all! They don't spend 6 weeks rehabbing after an injury layoff. At this point, I subscribe to the money on the ground theory.

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  4. local business in AZ and FLA. Its a gold mine for 6 weeks for hotels and restaurants.

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    1. not to mention all the ticket sales and concessions at all the ST parks. What's the average attendance? 5000 ? More?

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    2. And the players don't get paid (extra) for these games, so it is all free money for the owners and Az/Fl...

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  5. Note on Spring Training Battles - The Giants generally have a spot or two they have "Up for battle" between players that are basically at equal standing. So even though Spring Training might not have any predictive power for who will have the best season, your are able to do your best to assess to who is playing well "Right Now". And that is probably the guy you want to start the season with. Then if that doesn't work out, it's generally a no fuss move to go back the other way.

    This isn't to argue against your point, but there's often a lot of criticism when the Giants make a decision based off spring training stats.

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    1. That's right - the Giants do allow some decisions to be made out of ST, usually its a bench bat or a back-end arm. Great point, and the criticism is pretty misguided. The ability to "plug and play" that the Giants have constantly done is... constantly misinterpreted. Concise way to sum it up!

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  6. Should Sabean kick the tires on Oliver Perez and Emilio Bonifacio? Depth and competition never hurt nobody.

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    1. Not wild about either one. Maybe Bonifacio? Does he give you anything that Juan Perez doesn't?

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    2. stolen bases, versatility, big league experience.

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    3. The SB's are bright and shiny, but do not contribute much toward run production. The Giants have better offensive options for the IF and he's a negative defender in the OF. Worth thinking about, but not enough of an upgrade on in-house options, if at all, to be worth the trouble.

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    4. Bonifacio has been swiping them above the break even point of 70%. Had a .350 OBP towards end of season with KC. Nice to have some speed options on bench. Right now it is Blanco and Pence. I think Pagan will slow down this year because of hammy issues. I'd think a minor league deal would be worth pursuing but things are backed up enough with Arias, Abreu and Adrianza in the mix.

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  7. Recent post on SFGate about Timmy's offseason workouts: http://www.sfgate.com/giants/article/Tim-Lincecum-more-prepared-for-camp-this-year-5240759.php

    Question for the forum:
    For a player like Tim Lincecum, how predictive are his spring stats toward how effective he might be this season? We need a big season.

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