Monday, February 24, 2014

Fantasy Focus: Billy Hamilton vs Ben Revere Smackdown

Stolen Bases and Saves are the two most problematic categories in fantasy baseball for similar reasons.  The players who give you value in those categories tend to not give much in other categories.  Guys in my league chase those 1 or 2 guys who will win SB's for them so they can ignore that parameter when drafting other offensive players.   Billy Hamilton's base stealing prowess in the minor leagues is legendary and why not?  Dude stole 155 bases in just one season!  On the other hand, questions remain about the bat and whether it will play in the majors.  Ben Revere is another guy who steals a lot of bases, maybe not as many as Hamilton, but he may give you more Average and Runs than Hamilton which makes him a 3 category player as opposed to Hamilton's possible 2.  Here are their basic stat lines:

Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds.  6'0", 160 lbs.  B-S, T-R.  DOB: 9/9/1990.

2013(AAA):  75 R, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 75 SB, .256 BA, .308 OBP, 547 PA.
2013(MLB):  9 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 13 SB, .368 BA, 22 PA's, 13 Games.

13 SB's in 13 games and just 22 PA's.  Just ignore the BA for a second, which is clearly unrealistic due to sample size.  If Billy Hamilton was used only as a pinch runner and nothing else, he just might steal 100 bases and score 80 runs!  If you send him up to the plate 4-5 times per game and he can get the ball on the ground half the time, he might be a lock to steal 120 bases and score 100 runs!  On the other hand, if he's in the lineup every day, he's no lock to get on base every game whereas as a pinch runner, you could guarantee he would be on base at least once per game and you could pick the spot where you put him on!  Of course, not every game will produce a situation where a pinch runner, even one of his caliber, would make a difference in the game.  The sticking point with Billy is his .308 OBP in AAA and a similar number in the AFL.  Will he even crack .300 in a full MLB season?

Ben Revere, OF, Phillies.  5'9", 170 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  DOB:  5/3/1988.

2013:  37 R, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 22 SB, .305 BA, OBP .338, 336 PA.

Revere was in the middle of his best season, by far when he tore up his ankle which limited him to 88 games.  Up to that point, he had improved his BA each month of the season after a slow start.  He was on pace to steal 40 bases at the time of his injury.  He reportedly is fully healed and penciled in to be the Phillies starting CF and leadoff batter in 2014.

Now, let's take a look at 2014 projections.  I'll use ZIPS.

Hamilton:  73 R, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 68 SB, .264 BA, 605 PA.  I find the HR/RBI to be optimistic.  He never hit more than 2 in a season prior to last year.  The rest of the projection is quite believable.

Revere:  62 R, 1 HR, 31 RBI, 34 SB, .288 BA, 530 PA.  Although he has yet to hit 500 PA's in a season, as the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Phillies, 530 is extremely conservative.  I am quite confident that it will either be over 600, or a lot less than 530 due to injury.  That gets his projection to about equal Runs and over 40 SB's even if you expect some regression in BA/OBP.  There is pretty good evidence that Revere is still on the upward trajectory of his career so a regression is not set in stone.

Billy Hamilton's ADP in Yahoo leagues is currently 68.5 which put him in the 6'th round in 10 team leagues and the 5'th round in 12 team leagues.  Revere's ADP is 207.7 putting him in round 20 in 10 team leagues and round 17 in 12 team leagues.  Hamilton is commanding an average of $15.7 in auctions while Revere can be had for under $2 or less.

Which player you target in your draft, if either, depends on your strategy. If you want to take a risk with your relatively high draft pick or with over 5% of your auction budget to get that one player who might win you the steals category all by himself, then Billy Hamilton is the one guy in the draft who has a chance to do that.  you will likely have to make up for the losses in at least 3 other categories.  Revere likely won't give you the overwhelming SB numbers, but is a safer bet with virtually no risk from the investment side and a probability of helping you in 3 offensive categories.

No comments:

Post a Comment