Friday, February 28, 2014

Fantasy Focus: Jean Segura vs Elvis Andrus Smackdown

Jean Segura(Brewers) was the breakout SS story of last year giving fantasy owners who waited to take him near the end of their draft solid value across the board of fantasy categories.  There is veteran SS who was Jean Segura a few years ago and continues to put up similar numbers in subsequent seasons, Elvis Andrus(Rangers).  That Andrus can be acquired significantly later in fantasy drafts this year appears to be due to a classic case of Shiny New Toy Syndrome.  Here are the numbers:

Jean Segura:

2013:             74 R, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 44 SB, .294 BA, 623 PA.
2014(ZIPS):  70 R, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 35 SB, .284 BA, 580 PA.

Elvis Andrus:

2013:             91 R, 4 HR, 67 RBI, 42 SB, .271 BA, 698 PA.
2014(ZIPS):  84 R, 4 HR, 62 RBI, 35 SB, .273 BA, 699 PA.

While those double digit HR's by Segura look enticing and his season-long stat line looks terrific, keep in mind that he had a severe first-second half split with a putrid .241/.268/.315 slash line with just 1 dinger in the second half.  Andrus, on the other hand, has been putting up almost identical lines for at least 4 seasons now.

In Yahoo leagues, Segura is currently on average the 4'th SS off the board with an ADP of 43.4, 5'th round in 10 team leagues and 4'th round in 12 team leagues.  Andrus is the 7'th SS taken with an ADP of 85.7, 9'th round in 10 team leagues and early 8'th round in 12 team leagues.  Segura is requiring an average big of $24.5 in auctions while Andrus is going for $15.2.

My advice is if you want to target a SS in the first 5 rounds, go for the two time 20/20 guy, Ian Desmond.  If you think that is too rich for a SS, wait a couple or rounds or save yourself about $10 and target Andrus.  Note that it is much easier to target a specific player in an auction draft.  Of course, it would also be perfectly reasonable to wait out the draft for a SS and grab a Jed Lowrie, JJ Hardy or Jonathan Villar(who may well be this year's Jean Segura) in bargain basement time.


  1. What are your thoughts on Everth Cabrera and where would you rank him among other SS?

    1. Cabrera probably won't give you much in the way of BA, but he has been getting better. He's a great source of SB's and SS is not a bad position to dedicate to one category like that. I'd rank Cabrera somewhere around 6, 7, 8 in fantasy shortstops with the caveat that he won't give you much except SB's, but he's a great source of those.

  2. DrB, I have never played in any fantasy league, but I am curious, how do you usually do in fantasy league?

    You seem to have a strategy and know what you are doing.

    1. I've played in just one league for about 6 years now. It's a 10 team league but 26 roster spots so there we roster a total of 30 more players than a standard 12 team league. Finished 9'th my first season after inheriting a crappy set of keepers. I won it my second season then finished middle of the pack for about 3 years then won again year before last. I finished 5'th this last year. You have to know what you are doing, but there is a huge amount of luck involved. For instance, this last year when Mike Trout went for $57 in the auction, I thought I was being conservative by having Albert Pujols be my most expensive player at $39. Well, we all know what happened to him last year and it absolutely killed my offense.

      I've used several different strategies. When I first started out, I drafted HR's and didn't worry about anything else, punted steals. The second time I won, I went for balance on offense. On the pitching side, I used to go only for K's. Now I go for a combination of K's and WHIP. I spent high draft picks on closers the first year I won and punted Saves the other time.

      I don't think there is any one single winning strategy. You just have to know your players and be active in managing your team throughout the season. It's very much a game of undervalued commodities, much like in real baseball. It often pays to do the opposite of what most of your opponents are doing.

  3. Twice in six years - that's very good, like the Giants!