Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Down on the Farm: 5/13/2013

AAA  Fresno Grizzlies edged the Memphis Redbirds 4-3:

Chris Dominguez(3B)- 2 for 3, HR(6), 2 BB.  BA= .281.
Mike Kickham(LHP)- 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 5.40.
Sandy Rosario(RHP)- 3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 3.74.
Heath Hembree(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(12).  ERA= 1.89.

Dominguez has homered in 3 consecutive games and 4 of his last 5.  His slash line over his last 10 games is  .303/.378/.667.  Gary Brown took an 0 for 5 with 2 K's to halt his recent momentum.  Kickham has much better peripherals than his ERA would suggest:  42 K's against 17 BB in 41.2 IP, with a GO/AO= 1.90.  He got his first W in this one.  Hembree seems like he could come up any time. That is a very strong record for the PCL.

AA  Richmond Flying Squirrels blanked the Harrsburg Senators 4-0:

Jarrett Parker(RF)- 2 for 4, 2B, BB.  BA= .241.
Joe Panik(SS)- 2 for 5.   BA= .304.
Carlos Teller(LHP)-  3.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 0.00.
Fabio Castillo(RHP)- 3.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 3.86.

Parker is slashing .333/.381/.692 over his last 10 games.  Teller seems like an organizational guy for now.  Castillo was a minor league Rule 5 pickup this offseason.

High A High Desert Mavericks pounded the San Jose Giants 9-2:

Angel Villalona(1B)- 2 for 3, 2B, HR(7).  BA= .222.
Edwin Escobar(LHP)- 3 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 3.34.
Jose Casilla(RHP)- 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 2.25.
Bryce Bandilla(LHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 4.13.

Angel V keeps pounding the ball.  His IsoP is .230 which is really good.  His slash line over his last 10 games is .267/.314/.600.  That is despite going 0 for 6 in his first 2 games back after missing 3 games from an injury.  Escobar has his second rough start in a row.  Bandilla seems to be back on track after giving up a lot of longballs.

Low A  Augusta Greenjackets out hit the Rome Braves 11-8:

Eric Sim(C)- 3 for 4.  BA= .233.
Rapp, Houck and Trevor Brown all had doubles.
Martin Agosta(RHP)-  6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 2.17.
Ian Gardeck(RHP)- 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.55.
Stephen Johnson(RHP)- 0.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 0 BB, 0 K.  ERA= 5.00.

Agosta has a solid outing.  Gardeck now has 6 consecutive scoreless appearances with 14 K's against 5 BB in 9.1 IP.  Johnson, who had been pitching better imploded in the 9'th inning and Mizenko had to come in to get out of the inning.

In other news:

D'Backs, Rockies and Dodgers all lost last night so the Giants gain a half game on most of the NL West by not playing.  They now lead the D'Backs by 2.5 games and the Rockies by 3.

Nothing new here, but BA did a July 2 International Signing Day preview and reviewed the bonus pool numbers.  Giants are near the bottom in bonus pool money at about $1.9 M.   Many organizations have enough pool money to pay more than that for 1 player and still have more than $1.9 left over!  The Giants are effectively locked out of signing any of the top international prospects.  I call foul!!

They are in a similar position with the draft bonus pool, but at least in the draft they have a pick and the guy doesn't have a lot of options but to sign for the slot money.


  1. Martin Agosta shouldn't be written off as a major league prospect based on his size (6'1" 180). If a pitcher has good stuff and good control, he has a shot to make it. Look at the Braves pitcher Kris Medlin (5'10")..


    1. How about a more local product: Tim Lincecum.


  2. Well GUSTAVO was paid 1.5MM, and under the old system PerfectGame predicted he would have been a 4-5MM guy. The Gints might be able to grab one guy for 900k-1.1MM. How about a pitcher? That Marcos Diplan looks pretty slick to me! He is playing 2nd fiddle to the tall kid Mayky Perez.

    Its not a perfect comp, but the Giants sort of do a year on, year off with the IFA. AnVil in 2006, RafRod in 2008. They went sneaky in 2011 with Mejia for 350K then went large with GUSTAVO and Javier in 2012. Maybe they go for a couple smaller bonuses a la Mejia.

    Agosta is killing it! That's the first time the Augusta pen got touched. Good thing Mizenko was Johnny On the Spot.

    Good for Dominguez and Parker. They maybe facing long odds right now, but they have underlying talent that might not show up in their stats. Both are contact challenged but they also have raw tools - namely power.

    Our dirty dozen starters are doing great. Hopefully Crick and Mejia get back soon, but Stratton and Agosta are baffling Sally hitters as they should, and I think Flores and Marlowe have really put up good numbers and been pleasant surprises.

    Here's a fun #s comp from the 2011 draft:
    Kolten Wong (AAA): 311/333/439 with 8 2Bs, 1 HR, 6BB/22K (Drafted 22nd overall)
    Jackie Bradley Jr (AAA): 302/400/349 with 2 2Bs, 7BB/13K (started season in the show) (Drafted 40th overall)
    Brian Goodwin (AA): 250/335/399 with 6 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 2 HRs, 17BB/47K (Drafted 34th overall)
    Mikie Mahtook (AA): 238/323/462 with 9 2Bs, 7 3Bs, 3 HRs, 15BB/26K (Drafted 31st overall)

    And... drumroll...

    Average Joe Panik: (AA) 304/386/399 with 9 2Bs, 2 3Bs and 0 HRs, 19BB/13K (Drafted 29th overall)

    Goodwin is in the Eastern with Panik. Mahtook is in the Southern. Wong is in the PCL, Bradley is in the International. You don't want to know what Levi Michael is hitting, Zach Cone and Jake Hager are hanging in Advanced A leagues, and one of those shiny HS guys the Blue Jays drafted Jacob Anderson is floundering in rookie ball.

    And that is a direct comp of draft picks from the 2011 draft. Bradley has almost made the show, Wong will threaten soon and Average Joe just does what Average Joe does... Control the strike zone. Will the power come? We'll find out later...

    1. Everyone's definition of great is different.

      I think Agosta's doing great. Stratton is doing good. Crick last year was great-to-dominating. MadBum's year in Augusta was dominating. Of the top of my head, Wheeler's year at Augusta was good to great...I recall his battling with a finger blister problem (or maybe not), striking out and walking plenty.

    2. I think Joe was among the group of MI discussed for first round, Wong, Panik, and think Levi Michael.

    3. I was thinking about Panik, then I had this thought, perhaps others here have already discussed thi: is David Eckstein a proper comp?

      I was reading through a description of Panik's prospecthood and he's like average in everything, nothing really stands out except for his approach at the plate, and isn't Eckstein like that too? (Not really that familiar with Eckstein, hence why I ask).

      Wheeler wasn't that great in Augusta, another reason I was down on him at the time of the trade. He had a 3.99 ERA, good K/9 of 10.7, but very poor 5.8 BB/9, resulting in a poor 1.84 K/BB. He has improved in that regards over the years, roughly 2.5+ K/BB, so that was a growing pains first season for him. Still his BB/9 is still relatively poor, mid-high 3's to 4's, but a strikeout pitcher can make up for that. His MLE for 2012 only worked out to a 7.5 K/9 with 3.2 BB/9 and 2.4 K/BB, all OK for a 2-3 starter, not even close for an ace starter, as he's been hyped to be since he was traded by the Giants. Yeah, he had blister problems that season which took him off the team for extended periods twice if I recall right.

      I would add in how well Dirty did in Augusta to earn his fast promotion to the majors as another example of someone who did great in August. However, middling prospects like
      Kevin Pucetas did great in Augusta too (though warning sign was his low K/9 there), so success there is not a sign of success higher, necessarily.

    4. Ooops, another example of someone who did great in Augusta.

    5. Wheels had another blister this year, I believe.

  3. Since Bumgarner joined the rotation 4 years ago (I think), we haven't had a need to fill a spot. In fact, with the much travelled Vogelsong resurrecting his career here, we were able to trade Jonathan Sanchez away. On the other hand, we haven't had anyone knock on the door strongly enough to force a 'trade me or pitch me' decision for as many years.

    It could be that home-grown starting pitchers come in cycles. We got MadBum and Lincecum within a few years of each other and years before that, Cain and Sanchez.

    I know Sabean said it was his job to replace the traded Wheeler. So, it may be worthwhile to review where we are heading into next year with 3 possible open spots and what our internal options are (and how they are doing this year).

    PS: I made a mistake with Agosto's name a few times lately. Apologies. And it appears Escobar is having an OK year so far, but not a dominating one I mistakenly wrote. He can also show some more stepping up. Perhaps I confused him with Marlowe.

    1. Surkamp could have been that guy, but unfortunately he was injured.

    2. Bumgarner joined in 2010 season, so this is his fourth season with us, but it has been less than 3 years since he joined the team (though that anniversary is coming up soon).

      Pitching does not come in cycles that I can see. They could bunch up (like the A's and Met's 4 Aces of long ago, or the Giants AWF) or they can be standalones like Cain and Sanchez were. Bunching happens more frequently when a team is consistently losing and getting top draft position (1-10, but ideally 1-5), but only if the team is selecting a lot of pitching in the draft like the Giants do.

      Internal options are pretty clear: Surkamp, Heston, Kickham are the top options entering 2014, Blackburn, Crick, Stratton, Agosta, Escobar, Mejia are all possibilities mid-2014 but unlikely, and I think that most of them are not clear options until 2016 at the earliest among that group, though right now I would say that there is a chance that Blackburn could make the majors for good sometime in the 2015 season.

      While there are 3 possible openings, and thus a scenario that we should consider, I think it is more likely that there is 1-2 openings, as I see Zito being either picked up via his option or signed to a longer term deal. And the only way a longer deal happens is if he acknowledges that he was way overpaid and that a pitcher with his current capabilities are only worth around $6-8M per season, so maybe a $21M deal for 3 years plus his $7M buyout, for a total of $28M deal over 3 seasons.

      And I still think that Vogelsong will come out of it, a lot of his poor performances are related to a very high HR/FB ratio and to bad luck BABIP.

      Still, filling one spot with any of our current choices is not appetizing at the moment, so I can see the Giants moving to fill Lincecum's spot (unless he signs before the free agency season begins, I don't see how we keep him around longer, there will be an idiot deal from somewhere, especially LAD) by signing a flier like Wellemeyer in 2010.

      That will weaken our overall pitching staff, but with our offense stronger, particularly if we do somehow keep Pence around (turns out he was a big Barry Bonds fan growing up) and particularly if Belt figures things out by then, or use the money to find a better fill-in than another Wellemeyer, I think 2014-2015 will be a mild transitory period at worse.

      I'm still hoping we resign Lincecum - which would mean that he turns things around and have a good enough season in 2013 but not ace level - to a short-term, 2-3 year deal (as that is all the market should bear, given concerns over his size and especially his up and down 2012-13 seasons), and that would bridge us over until Blackburn, Crick, Stratton, Agosta, Escobar, Mejia are ready. I don't mind overpaying Lincecum slightly for 2-3 seasons vs. committing bigger bucks for a 5+ year deal.

  4. Hmm... just read Bradler's BA piece on their top 10, and tall guy Perez isn't listed. They do have Diplan listed in the top 10, rumored to the Rangers. Always the Rangers.

  5. Looks like AnVil has reacclimated to professional baseball and caught up to where he was, and then so, when he last played professional baseball on American soil.

    If he continues to blast the ball this way and Oropesa continues to hit poorly in AA, I can see the Giants swapping the two of them sometime in June.