State of the Giants

Few subjects engender more heated discussion among Giants fans than the current state of the team, and whether their current management is on the right track. One common theme among serious Giants fans, the "Lunatic Fringe" if you will, is that the current ownership group is more interested in profits than winning. The new Managing Partner, Bill Neukom, knows little about baseball, and foolishly retained an incompetent Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy because he and the other owners are happy with fielding a merely competitive team, and don't want to disrupt the status quo, as long as the organization remains profitable. Most members of the "Lunatic Fringe" believe that the team will not win a championship as long as current management is in place. Another, probably smaller, group of Giants fans, while not entirely happy with the way the team has been managed, look at a resurgent scouting department and farm system and see a brighter future for the team. I believe that, despite his well documented shortcomings, Brian Sabean has done a good job of rebuilding the farm system and the Giants are well positioned for the future.

Brian Sabean's tenure as the Giants GM can be divided into 3 sub-eras:

1. The "Golden Touch" Era: 1997-2003. This era started out with the famous Matt Williams trade and the subsequent "I am not an idiot" quote. Williams was actually the only star player Sabean traded. The remainder of his moves involved a strategy of drafting lots of pitchers and then trading most of them for veteran players, usually ones other teams were dumping in "firesales." Throughout this era, virtually every trade he made turned out on the positive side of the ledger for the Giants. Jeff Kent was, by far, the most successful of these acquisitions, but Livan Hernandez, Robb Nen, JT Snow, Jason Schmidt, Kirk Rueter, among others were major contributors too. Unfortunately, although the they had many very good teams during this era, and even got within 5 outs of winning the World Series in 2002, the Giants always seemed to be one player short. Some detractors said that Sabean's success, particularly with the Williams trade and Jeff Kent, was due more to luck than skill, and of course to the tremendous talent of Barry Bonds. Still, Brian Sabean was the man with the Golden Touch and won several Executive of the Year awards.



2. The "Win One For Barry" Era: 2004-2006. This era was characterized by a conscious effort on the part of Giants management to acquire veteran role players who would complement the tremendous talent of Barry Bonds. It started with Sabean making another of his patented multiple pitching prospects for one veteran trades, this time for AJ Pierzynski. The trade backfired badly. AJP and the organization got off on the wrong foot when he preferred to go to arbitration than sign a contract. By most accounts, AJP had a bad attitude from day 1, reportedly kicked the Trainer in the groin during spring training, alienated some of the pitchers, particularly Brett Tomko, and was eventually allowed to leave the team as a free agent with nothing in return for the Giants. Meanwhile, Joe Nathan, one of the pitchers sent to the Twins in the trade, quickly became one of the best closers in baseball, and Francisco Liriano burst onto the scene with explosive stuff before suffering a torn UCL that set him back by at least 3 years. Brian Sabean has not made a major trade since the AJ Pierzynski trade, and some observers wonder if he became gunshy after that spectacular failure. His MO shifted to signing relatively low cost veteran free agents such as Ray Durham, Marquis Grissom, Mike Matheny and others. He shifted from using the draft and farm system to acquire trade fodder, to not using it at all, infamously dumping a first round draft choice on purpose to free up the money to sign Michael Tucker. Unsurprisingly, when Bonds career came to a premature end due to complications from a knee arthroscopy, the team collapsed. With rapidly aging talent at the MLB level, and an empty cupboard in the farm system, a period of sustained losing was almost inevitable. Serious Giants fans reacted by starting to call for a new GM.

3. The "Building From Within" Era: 2006- Present. The collapse of the MLB team gave the Giants something they hadn't had for a long time, a top 10 draft pick. The drafting of Tim Lincecum in the 2006 draft marked a watershed in the history of the team and in Brian Sabean's approach to team building somewhat analagous to the drafting of Will Clark years before. The Giants already had one nice piece in Matt Cain, drafted in 2002 and just getting established as a young star. In subsequent years, the Giants added Madison Bumgarner, another high school pitcher, and then Buster Posey in 2008, and by all accounts had another good draft in 2009 with Zack Wheeler, Tommy Joseph and others. Meanwhile, the Giants revived a moribund international scouting program and signed several high profile players such and Angel Villalona and Rafael Rodriquez as well as a large number of lesser known players. The first big dividend from this effort was Pablo Sandoval, who burst onto the scene in 2008 and built on that with a stellar 2009 campaign.

So, where does that leave the Giants now? Rebuilding from within takes time. The old 5 year plan is widely considered an outdated concept. Teams can rebuild much more quickly through free agency. Free agency, however, has largely dried up after the last contract with the Players Association which allowed more revenue sharing. Even small market teams are able to retain many of their own players. A star college player takes 2-3 years to reach the major leagues and another year or two to establish himself as a productive major leaguer. A top high school draftee takes 3-4 years to reach the majors with a similar adjustment period while a 16 year old international prospect may take up to 5-6 years to fully develop. The unusually rapid development of Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval actually puts the Giants ahead of schedule in a full-scale rebuild from within the organization.

Since 2006, the Giants have brought an impressive core of young, homegrown players to the major league team. Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Pablo Sandoval, Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson comprise a home grown core that rivals the most successful farm systems in that time period and is better than most. Despite these graduations, as well as the losses of Tim Aldersons and Scott Barnes via trades, and the possible loss of Angel Villalona due to legal troubles, the Giants farm system remains strong as they have continued to draft well and have remained active in the international market. John Manuel of Sports Illustrated and Baseball America recently ranked it #3 overall.

With the current core of young players, and a still excellent farm system, the Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball. Their upward trajectory might not be completely smooth. They may not do better than last year's 88 wins in 2010. They may end up having to trade one or more of the current group of young players as they reach their arbitration and free agency years, and command salaries commensurate with their talent. The flow of young talent should continue unabated for at least the next 5-6 years even if the Giants stopped drafting and signing prospects tomorrow, which they show no signs of doing. If managed correctly, even the loss of one or more of their young pitchers via trade should result in the acquisition of even more young talent.

Of course, the big question is whether Brian Sabean can manage this transition correctly. He has never made a trade of a veteran for prospects with the prospects coming to the Giants. The closest comp to that projected situation would be the Matt Williams trade. Whether Sabean can pull off another one, or more, like it in the future will probably determine whether the "Building From Within" era results in the long awaited World Championship or yet another era of very good Giants teams that fall just short. It will be interesting, exciting, and possibly frustrating to watch.