Halladay-Lee Trades: My Take

The recent series of trades involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee as well as several highly ranked prospects will probably be forever viewed as one big event, though, technically, none of the trades were tied to each other. Taken together, they will probably have a bigger impact on the game than any trade in recent memory. Who got the best end of these trades will undoubtedly be hotly debated for years to come. Here's my take:

Toronto Blue Jays: Grade B+. Toronto needed to trade Roy Halladay and get young talent in return. They accomplished that. Perhaps they could have gotten a little more for him, but the 3 prospects they ended up with, Wallace, Drabek and D'Arnaud immediately become their top 3 ranked prospects. Toronto can also use the money saved on Halladay's salary to spend more on the draft and the international market to further strengthen their farm system. Wallace and Drabek are nearly MLB ready. Living up to Halladay's accomplishments is a rare feat, and probably not reasonable to expect of any young pitchers, but Drabek has the potential to be a #1 or #2 starter, and very soon. The Jays should get at least 6 very productive years from both him and Brett Wallace. I'm a bit mystified as to why Toronto flipped Michael Taylor for Wallace, but more on that later.

Philadelphia Phillies: Grade D. Roy Halladay is probably a better pitcher than Cliff Lee, but only marginally so. In order to achieve that marginal upgrade, the Phillies decimated a strong farm system. Yes, they got 3 prospects back from Seattle, but those 3 prospects are in no way comparable to the ones they gave up. It appears that the only reason Amaro Jr. made this trade was that Lee was refusing to sign a contract extension whereas they were able to lock up Halladay for 4 years albeit at $20 M/yr. What if the Phillies had just kept Cliff Lee? They still would have been competitive for another World Championship run in 2010. They would still have had Drabek, who would likely be ready to move into the rotation in 2011, or else could still have been packaged in a trade at that point. They also would have the $20 M/year they will be paying Halladay to compete for Lee, Halladay or other free agent pitchers. Roy Halladay will be 33 to start the 2010 season. He has a ton of mileage on his arm with over 2000 IP in his 11 year MLB career so far. The risk that that the Phils will be grossly overpaying him in the final two years of his contract is huge.

Seattle Mariners: Grade A-. They didn't give up a whole lot, and got an ace in return, but only for one season. It appears that their new GM is trying to make a splash and compete for the AL West right away. With Oakland and Texas rebuilding, and the Angels crumbling, his timing may be perfect. Lee can be traded again at mid-season if things aren't going as planned, or the M's can recoup some of their farm system losses with compensation draft picks if Lee leaves as a free agent after the season, so there is very little long term downside.

Oakland A's: Grade B. I see Michael Taylor as a marginal upgrade on Brett Wallace just because Wallace profiles as a first baseman and/or DH while Taylor is a competent left-fielder. Taylor may not hit for as high a batting average as Wallace, but will probably have significantly more power. Both teams had somewhat of a need to rebalance their systems from a postional standpoint. Toronto already had Wells, Lind, and Travis Snider in the OF while the A's were overloaded with first base/DH types. Toronto's need to rebalance seemed to be less as they could have made use of the DH, or even moved LInd or Snider to first base. A marginal win for Billy Beane here.