While several good things happened in this game for the Giants, they ultimately came up short in all phases of the game for another loss. Key Lines:
Willy Adames SS- 1 for 3, BB, R. BA= .235. We need to talk about Willy Adames' defense. He made his 9'th error of the season which led to 2 unearned runs for the D'Backs and probably more runs overall through a cascade effect. We are at approximately the 1/3 mark of the season. 9 X 3 = 27. Shortstops generally make more errors than other positions but last season Elly De La Cruz had the most errors of any SS in MLB with 26. CJ Abrams was second with 22. Willy Adames had 16. Before today, Adames was #21 among MLB shortstops for fielding percentage. That number is probably lower after today. Advanced metrics are even less kind. He ranks #24 with a Fangraphs Def of -3.1. Per the eye test, he makes a lot of excellent plays and looks like he is willing to sacrifice his body to make them. So what's going on? Has he lost a step? Is he having concentration lapses? Per statcast it looks like a loss of range is at least part of the problem which is not good because honestly, he just doesn't hit well enough to contribute at another position.
Rafael Devers 1B- 1 for 3, 2B, HBP. BA= .246. Devers is rightfully batting in the cleanup spot. He drove in both runs with a loud double. His defense at 1B appears to have improved a lot over the last few weeks. Today he ran down a foul fly all the into the old bullpen area.
Casey Schmitt LF- 1 for 4, 2B. BA= .295. Schmitt smoked a double off the LF wall but also misplayed a flyball to LF. He was not charged with an error but had he made the play, Adames error not have resulted in unearned runs and Roupp might have stayed in the game longer or at least left with a 2-1 lead. The combined error and misplay to start the D'Back's 5'th inning was the turning point in the game.
Landen Roupp RHP- 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K's. ERA= 3.30. Roupp did not have his best command but he was hanging in there until the unfortunate 5'th inning. The Giants have now had just one Quality Start out of the last 6.
J T Brubaker RHP- 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K. ERA= 2.96. Brubaker pitches mostly in mop-up situations, but has done a good job eating innings.
Tyler Mahle RHP tries to get the Giants their first win against the D'Backs on the season facing Eduardo Rodriguez LHP who comes in with a 2.24 ERA.
many suggestions to move Arraez and yet here is a guy that hits and if my reading is correct is easily the team's best positional defender! i see him as a foundational player. if you need to find a home for Schmitt find it somewhere else please. -es
ReplyDeleteI love what Arraez is doing too but he is a free agent at the end of this season and next year will be his age 30 season. The last thing the Giants organization needs is another player over 30 yo on a long term free agent contract.
DeleteI got into a squabble on X with a prominent Giants beat writer, who claimed the Devers trade was a good one because Kyle Harrison was a, and I quote, "declining asset". Meanwhile, Devers has only 27 RBI's in the first 1/3 of the season, and 7 of those were in the last two games (of which the team only won one).
DeleteThe Devers trade was bad because of what they got, a streaky, defensively limited player signed for way too much for too long who immediately blocked their top prospect.
Delete"... they got a streaky, defensively limited player signed for way too much for too long..." and ill-suited for Oracle Park!
DeleteAs (nearly) everyone knows, Oracle Park is notoriously unfriendly for left-handed hitters (not named Barry Bonds).
What was Buster thinking?
And Kyle Harrison? 9 starts: KC is 7-2, has won the last 6 of them, and has only lost 2 by 3-1 and 3-2 scores.
What was Grant Brisbee thinking?
And, you don't want to see what 22-year old James Tibbs III is doing at LAD's AAA farm team in 224 PAs: .316/.424/.599/1.023.
This could haunt the Giants for the next 10 or 15 years.
Yes, could haunt is not will haunt, but this is remarkable for a player who is 4.2 years younger than the league average.
It is somewhat better in the power numbers than an even younger Eldridge's AAA this year in 137 PAs: .333/.445/.518/.963.
Imagine having both of them!
Well, the Giants certainly felt that Harrison was a "declining asset."
DeleteAnd that's the problem, right? Here's a local guy, lefty starter, debuts at 22 years old. (a lot of reasons to keep him around; young, cheap, lefty starter)
He pitches decently, if not spectacularly, for the next year-and-a-half. (ERA+ 89) Giants don't like what they see (I heard declining velocity) and cut him loose.
Enough talent to be our #5 starter? Ask Houser (ERA+ 73) and Mahle (ERA+ 64).
--Not to mention Tibbs. If you want to see what a AAA hitter's rookie call-up stats should look like, check Tibbs' stats this year. Not Eldridge's--
I don't have a problem taking on Devers' full contract, but at that price, the Giants should not have been giving up talent like that. (To be fair, the Red Sox felt the same, as they absolutely gave away both players away.)
There has been a real problem here drafting and assessing talent. If Harrison that quickly fixable (ERA+ Boston 138, ERA+ Milwaukee, 229) then the Giants damn sure should have seen it.)
I know hindsight is 20:20, but just seeing the way that the market treated Pete Alonso the 24/25 offseason I think is an indication of how FO's value lumbering sluggers. This is probably something that will define the Buster era, is that he is willing to force action even if that means the Giants overpay relative to projections. This is borne out by the Adames signing as well as the Bailey, Doval, and Devers singings. They all seemed like Buster forced the issue on. Rather than live by the #s.
DeleteI would personally bet against Buster, and I believe this approach will lead to more whiffs than home runs. I personally would prefer if he took risks on the margins (like the Doval trade), but not huge swings he otherwise made. Nevertheless, I do hope he succeeds. For the sake of all of our sanity.
- Fan
Errors, missed opportunities, whatever (A.I.):
ReplyDeleteIn Major League Baseball (MLB), roughly 20% of games are won by a team that scores only 2 or fewer runs.
Historically, a team scoring 2 runs or fewer loses nearly 80% of the time.
When a team is limited to just 0, 1, or 2 runs, their chance of winning usually hovers between 15% and 25%, depending heavily on the quality of their pitching staff.
Given that the Giants do not have a particularly "quality" pitching staff, they could lose 85% of the time when they don't score at least 3 runs.
This year, SF has scored 2 or fewer runs 22 times and lost them all.
They are 5-5 when scoring 3 runs, 0-3 when scoring 4.
Altogether, when scoring 4 or less, their record is 5-30: .143, a denunciation of the offense.
ok maybe i'm wrong about Arraez :) but then again, seems the alternative is to have a whole cohort of home grown players who are under control and are really really good. how likely is that? i have no idea what is the best recipe for a championship team. despite blocking a top prospect, i thought Devers was a good move. i was less thrilled about Chapman and Adames but we all have our POV's about the current Giants landscape and it's picking at nits if, as one poster points out, the Giants can't score runs. trying to see this from Posey's office, i can see how they might appear as thoughtful moves to make the team better. Houser and Mahle, though, look like he's waving the white flag.
ReplyDeleteSadly, I honestly don't think there is plenty of blame to go around and there are not any good solutions right now.
Delete....er I DO think there is plenty of blame to go around.....
DeleteI like Devers as a hitter, liked the trade when it was made, Gotta pay the price to get a player like that. This story about Buster and Brandon Crawford meeting Roch Chlowsky does bother me a little bit. I know he's from Vallejo, is it worth paying a record signing bonus to have him drop to the Giants to #4. When Jim Callis wrote Buster will do anything for Roch to drop to #4. It scares me a little, since it'll affect their whole draft. I think Buster should spend more time looking to make smart trades to help this team instead.
ReplyDeleteAgree. I am not convinced Roch is THAT player. I would rather see them make a solid pick at #4 then go for one of the many high-ceiling HS pitchers at #29. This is a deep draft so they can probably also grab a great pick at #55.
DeleteAssuming Cholowsky & Emerson go #1 & #2 as most seem to be predicting, is the "solid pick" for SF good if the guy they want is taken by the Twins — are there 2 (or more) they want? Would they go with yet another catcher, or a Bay Area pitcher, or a High Schooler, depending on who Minn doesn't pick?
DeleteDid you see this. May get Roch and all the HS arms.
Deletehttps://www.mccoveychronicles.com/san-francisco-giants-mlb-draft/106874/burning-the-drafting-ships-the-giants-potential-draft-breaking-strategy
I saw that article. If they can get Roch plus 2-3 high-upside HS arms, more power to them. I do not want to see them burn their 2027 and 2028 first rounders in that scenario, though.
DeleteI think gaming the draft is a worthy type of gamble. I would go all in on some pick qualifying free agents then too like a closer and setup man.
DeleteI am thinking it is perfectly reasonable for the ChiSox to select Emerson, but it would be unlikely that both TB and Min pass on Cholowsky since his risk/reward profile looks to be extremely strong. I think if Lackey is available he could solidify a premium position for a decade, including the years that the young core will establish themselves. I suspect that is how the Twins are also thinking, which means he probably goes at #3. That leaves Flora, Lombard and Booth Jr as the rest of the top tier as I see it. While Flora has great stats and stuff I have a lingering feeling that he hasn’t been as utterly dominating in a mid-major conference as I would have liked to see. This draft class is deep in the second tier of pitchers and I don’t see there being a significant drop off if the Giants pass on Flora and get pitching later. That leaves Lombard and Booth Jr, the former having the higher ceiling but lower floor. Still, Booth Jr has almost as much upside as Lombard while his red flags are more identifiable and fixable than Lombard’s. Finally, because he is generally ranked lower than Lombard he might come with a meaningful savings compared to Lombard. That will help later in the draft even if the Giants decide against the burning the drafting ships strategy.
ReplyDelete